Draft stuff

[gunnarthor]

Not much to report but Callis at mlbpipeline wrote about the class:

 

"There's a lot of uncertainty swirling around the 2016 Draft with eight weeks to go before the Phillies make the No. 1 overall pick. Many of the top-rated college pitchers entering the season have regressed, and there are few up-the-middle position players worthy of going in the upper half of the first round. The consensus at this moment -- and a lot can change with two months to go -- is that the two best prospects are Barnegat (N.J.) High left-hander Jason Groome and Riley Pint, a righty from St. Thomas Aquinas High (Overland Park, Kan.). .... As of today, I'd rate Groome No. 1, Pint No. 2 and then the best college position players (Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel, Louisville outfielder Corey Ray, Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis) Nos. 3-5."

 

With that kind of uncertainty, this might be a strange draft where someone who was expected to go high might drop into our lap at 15 (or fall far below).  Alec Hansen, for example, has had a disaster of a season and was in pre-season consideration to be a top 3 pick.  He lost the strike zone and was moved the the bullpen.

[Thrylos]

Someone like Garrett Williams might fall in the Twins' lap and they will be crazy if they do not go after him...

[SheboyganBrats]

I seem to recall from last year's draft discussion that the 2016 draft was expected to be much stronger than 2015.  At this point, it sounds like a lot of the pitchers in the 2016 class have regressed, and maybe the position players weren't as good as originally thought.  Regardless, this sets up well for the Twins, since, as previously mentioned, someone may fall to us who was expected to go considerably higher.

 

I'm looking forward to more discussion as we get closer to the draft.  It is easily one of my favorite threads, since everyone seems so well informed.

[Hrbowski]

 

I seem to recall from last year's draft discussion that the 2016 draft was expected to be much stronger than 2015.  At this point, it sounds like a lot of the pitchers in the 2016 class have regressed, and maybe the position players weren't as good as originally thought.  Regardless, this sets up well for the Twins, since, as previously mentioned, someone may fall to us who was expected to go considerably higher.

 

I'm looking forward to more discussion as we get closer to the draft.  It is easily one of my favorite threads, since everyone seems so well informed.

Nah, this was never considered a good draft. The one who was supposed to be the Josh Beckett of this draft got into a lot of trouble and won't be drafted, and just about everybody else seemed to have some sort of issue.

[gunnarthor]

mlbpipeline updated their draft list and it's now 100 players.  Still doesn't look like a great draft, Logan Shore, for instance, is considered a future "back-end starter" and listed at #40.  

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=draft

 

Jim Callis also did a Draft question inbox - http://m.mlb.com/news/article/175101696/pipeline-inbox-2016-mlb-draft-questions?topicid=151437456

 

 

[clutterheart]

Twins scouting dept is going to have to work overtime for this one.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Twins scouting dept is going to have to work overtime for this one.

 

Or, since it is such a down year, just randomly throw darts after round 2 or 3.....and don't stress so much over something they have such little control over. But, that's just not how we roll in big companies......

[DJL44]

Not a good draft but Atlanta is trying to trade for picks. Too bad the highest one the Twins can offer to trade is #73.

[markos]

Yeah, weird class. But someone with serious top-10 buzz will be available for the Twins at #15 for one reason or another (poor performance, injury questions, etc).

 

The Twins have a couple of extra picks (#73 & #74) due to failing to sign Cody last year and getting a competitive balance pick. So they have 4 picks between #56 and #93. That should give them some extra money (if they need it) to go a little overslot at #15 for someone who drops. That flexibility is good.

 

Alternatively, it may be worth trying to save some money at #15, and then taking the best HS player available for the next 4 picks. I'm not sure if the depth of this draft would warrant such a strategy.

[gunnarthor]

 

Yeah, weird class. But someone with serious top-10 buzz will be available for the Twins at #15 for one reason or another (poor performance, injury questions, etc).

 

The Twins have a couple of extra picks (#73 & #74) due to failing to sign Cody last year and getting a competitive balance pick. So they have 4 picks between #56 and #93. That should give them some extra money (if they need it) to go a little overslot at #15 for someone who drops. That flexibility is good.

 

Alternatively, it may be worth trying to save some money at #15, and then taking the best HS player available for the next 4 picks. I'm not sure if the depth of this draft would warrant such a strategy.

Yeah, I'm not sure what they will do and I have no idea what the scouting community thinks but there are some interesting possibilities that might be there at 15.  

One option would be Alec Hanson (#64 on mlb's list).  He was a preseason top 3 guy who had a wretched season and lost complete control.  He seems like a clear Alex Meyer type so maybe the Twins think they could fix his control?  Klaw's chat yesterday said Hansen would be a second round guy this year who might go back for his senior season to fix his approach.  But if it's fixed, he's a front end starter.  He's probably too much of a risk at 15 but if the Twins did it, I wouldn't blame them even if he flames out.

 

MLB's top catcher is Zach Collins (#20 on the list) so he might be there for the Twins.  He's an offense first guy who might not stick but ....

[Hrbowski]

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what they will do and I have no idea what the scouting community thinks but there are some interesting possibilities that might be there at 15.  

One option would be Alec Hanson (#64 on mlb's list).  He was a preseason top 3 guy who had a wretched season and lost complete control.  He seems like a clear Alex Meyer type so maybe the Twins think they could fix his control?  Klaw's chat yesterday said Hansen would be a second round guy this year who might go back for his senior season to fix his approach.  But if it's fixed, he's a front end starter.  He's probably too much of a risk at 15 but if the Twins did it, I wouldn't blame them even if he flames out.

 

MLB's top catcher is Zach Collins (#20 on the list) so he might be there for the Twins.  He's an offense first guy who might not stick but ....

IMO there is no chance that Collins sticks at catcher.

[Monkeypaws]

 

 

 

The Twins have a couple of extra picks (#73 & #74) due to failing to sign Cody last year and getting a competitive balance pick. So they have 4 picks between #56 and #93. That should give them some extra money (if they need it) to go a little overslot at #15 for someone who drops. That flexibility is good.

 

 

Speaking of Cody, his numbers this season: 4-2, 4.28 ERA, 54.2IP, 48H, 49K, 22BB. Kind of underwhelming for a senior.

[markos]

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what they will do and I have no idea what the scouting community thinks but there are some interesting possibilities that might be there at 15.  

One option would be Alec Hanson (#64 on mlb's list).  He was a preseason top 3 guy who had a wretched season and lost complete control.  He seems like a clear Alex Meyer type so maybe the Twins think they could fix his control?  Klaw's chat yesterday said Hansen would be a second round guy this year who might go back for his senior season to fix his approach.  But if it's fixed, he's a front end starter.  He's probably too much of a risk at 15 but if the Twins did it, I wouldn't blame them even if he flames out.

 

MLB's top catcher is Zach Collins (#20 on the list) so he might be there for the Twins.  He's an offense first guy who might not stick but ....

Another name to watch, mentioned in a different thread, is Cal Quantrill. He is a college guy recovering from TJ surgery. #15 is right around where a lot of injured pitchers end up (Allard #14, Aiken #17, Fedde #18, Giolito #16). 

[HitInAPinch]

I'm under the assumption that the Twins have some prospects that are 1-3 years away from MLB ready.

What position would the Twins be targeting?  Or is the MLB draft more of a 'pick the best on the board' type draft?

[d-mac]

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what they will do and I have no idea what the scouting community thinks but there are some interesting possibilities that might be there at 15.  

One option would be Alec Hanson (#64 on mlb's list).  He was a preseason top 3 guy who had a wretched season and lost complete control.  He seems like a clear Alex Meyer type so maybe the Twins think they could fix his control?  Klaw's chat yesterday said Hansen would be a second round guy this year who might go back for his senior season to fix his approach.  But if it's fixed, he's a front end starter.  He's probably too much of a risk at 15 but if the Twins did it, I wouldn't blame them even if he flames out.

 

MLB's top catcher is Zach Collins (#20 on the list) so he might be there for the Twins.  He's an offense first guy who might not stick but ....

 

I doubt the Twins would ever draft an offense first catcher. 

[d-mac]

 

Yeah, weird class. But someone with serious top-10 buzz will be available for the Twins at #15 for one reason or another (poor performance, injury questions, etc).

 

The Twins have a couple of extra picks (#73 & #74) due to failing to sign Cody last year and getting a competitive balance pick. So they have 4 picks between #56 and #93. That should give them some extra money (if they need it) to go a little overslot at #15 for someone who drops. That flexibility is good.

 

Alternatively, it may be worth trying to save some money at #15, and then taking the best HS player available for the next 4 picks. I'm not sure if the depth of this draft would warrant such a strategy.

 

I like the idea of taking a college hitter at 15, which seems to be the strength of this class and then go with upside high school guys with the next four picks. At #15 I really like Will Craig. He checks all the boxes with the bat for me: contact, power, and plate discipline (top 5 hitter in all 3 triple slash categories in a solid conference, plus he walks more than he strikes out). Only problem is that he seems to not have a defensive position and seems like a bit of a DH plodder. 

[d-mac]

 

Speaking of Cody, his numbers this season: 4-2, 4.28 ERA, 54.2IP, 48H, 49K, 22BB. Kind of underwhelming for a senior.

 

He probably should have signed. But I think we dodged a bullet. I never liked that pick. 

[d-mac]

 

I'm under the assumption that the Twins have some prospects that are 1-3 years away from MLB ready.

What position would the Twins be targeting?  Or is the MLB draft more of a 'pick the best on the board' type draft?

 

I don't think you should draft targeting certain positions like happens in the NFL. It takes years for most of these players to reach the majors, if at all. The MLB draft is obviously more nuanced than just take the player available, but that's generally what's done. However, in instances like the Twins having 0 catching in the system, taking a few catchers early wouldn't hurt. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm under the assumption that the Twins have some prospects that are 1-3 years away from MLB ready.

What position would the Twins be targeting?  Or is the MLB draft more of a 'pick the best on the board' type draft?

They'll take best player.  They always have but BPA can be pretty loose.  

 

That said, I think the minor league system is weak in both catchers (Turner could be an avg starter, I suppose) and third base (Polanco might play there but then I think you have to drop to rookie ball guys like Cabbage and Blankenhorn).  I kind of hope a college third baseman is BPA this year but I'm not sure who that would be.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yep BPA early.

Later rounds you target specific positions if you need balance somewhere.

[diehardtwinsfan]

At 15 in a weak draft, I doubt there's going to be much separation for BPA.  If there's a clear BPA, by all means get him.

 

That said, I would target ceiling, and since there's a wide range of people that could be drafted at 15, I'd probably target a few of the guys I really want there and see who cuts a decent enough deal to get some higher ceiling prep prospects. 

[gunnarthor]

Minor league ball had a little write up on Jordan Sheffield.  His brother was a first round pick two years ago.  MLBpipeline has him ranked #19 so he could be in play for the Twins.  Has a little control issues but good pitch grades.  Biggest knock on him seems to be the same one on Berris - he's too short.  

[Vanimal46]

I have no idea if there are any C worthy of a 1st round pick. But this team desperately needs an influx of talent at C... I'm hoping for 2 C's drafted...  

[Bob Sacamento]

Well Cooper Johnson is the most advanced defensive HS catcher in the draft along w having good hit tools. Right now his glove is far better than his bat. He was the Team USA 18u catcher and all reports that he has tremendous work ethic and is a great team leader. So of you're looking at catchers, who are staying catchers, he's one to follow. Here's video I took of Cooper at the 2015 WWBA Championship

 

https://youtu.be/xwX1N9JoV48

[Vanimal46]

 

Well Cooper Johnson is the most advanced defensive HS catcher in the draft along w having good hit tools. Right now his glove is far better than his bat. He was the Team USA 18u catcher and all reports that he has tremendous work ethic and is a great team leader. So of you're looking at catchers, who are staying catchers, he's one to follow. Here's video I took of Cooper at the 2015 WWBA Championship

https://youtu.be/xwX1N9JoV48

Thanks for the tip! He's certainly someone I'd like the Twins to keep an eye on... Young, good chance of staying a C, good defense. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Thanks for the tip! He's certainly someone I'd like the Twins to keep an eye on... Young, good chance of staying a C, good defense. 

Looks like he'll be a second rounder and the Twins have a few of those, IIRC.  So he's probably on their radar but he might go before they get a chance.  

[operation mindcrime]

We need to do whatever it takes to sign Abraham Gutierrez on July 2nd! \m/

[Monkeypaws]

 

We need to do whatever it takes to sign Abraham Gutierrez on July 2nd! \m/

Wouldn't this be the year to break all the rules, as they are about to change?

[Hrbowski]

 

We need to do whatever it takes to sign Abraham Gutierrez on July 2nd! \m/

Sorry, but the Braves have a deal with him.

[Hrbowski]

I have always thought of Cooper Johnson as the high school version of Stuart Turner.