The weird disparity between performance and winning

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, this season is quickly descending into the land of the ridiculous, pure Alice in Wonderland territory.

 

Here are some things to mull over:

 

1. The Twins pitching staff has actually been pretty good. They're sporting a 4.11 ERA, good for 13th in all of baseball. Going into the season, that was "best case scenario" territory for me. If an AL team's pitching is in the top half of MLB, they're doing okay for themselves.

 

2. The Twins offense has an .858 OPS with the bases empty. That's good for third in all of baseball. Huzzah, amirite?

 

3. The Twins offense has a .335 OPS (WTF?!?!?!) with runners on base. Not RISP, just on base. As you can imagine, that's last in all of MLB because seriously. How can an entire team even do that?

 

4. Twins pitchers have allowed 53 hits, 22 walks, and given up 26 runs in the process. That seems reasonable. Roughly one out of three players to reach base end up crossing home plate.

 

5. Twins hitters have 45 hits, 18 walks, and have scored... just 12 times. That's absurd. One out of every 5-6 players to reach base is crossing home plate. To quote Ron Burgundy, "And you ate the whole... wheel of cheese? How'd you do that? Heck, I'm not even mad; that's amazing."

 

Despite the painful first six games, this team hasn't been awful. They've been various shades of good, mediocre, and absolutely horrible in the clutch (both the bullpen and offense). That won't hold up forever, we simply need the team to right ship before this season is put to bed in mid-April.

 

This entire situation is... just... weird.

 

[Loosey]

 

5. Twins hitters have 45 hits, 18 walks, and have scored... just 12 times. That's absurd. One out of every 5-6 players to reach base is crossing home plate. To quote Ron Burgundy, "And you ate the whole... wheel of cheese? How'd you do that? Heck, I'm not even mad; that's amazing."

 

 

 

 

#5 will continue if the strikeout rate continues.  Yesterday's game (Sunday) they should have scored 5-6 runs if they would have been able to put the ball in play in a number of situations.  Runner on 2nd and no out and not scoring occasionally is fine, but to get a guy on 2nd base then have 2 of the next 3 batters strike out consistently is a problem which will hopefully be addressed.

 

I am not a big proponent of giving up an out and bunting guys over.  But until this team can prove they can take a professional at bat with RISP I think they need to bunt and hope someone can at least put a ball into the outfield before the next strikeout.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

#5 will continue if the strikeout rate continues.  Yesterday's game (Sunday) they should have scored 5-6 runs if they would have been able to put the ball in play in a number of situations.  Runner on 2nd and no out and not scoring occasionally is fine, but to get a guy on 2nd base then have 2 of the next 3 batters strike out consistently is a problem which will hopefully be addressed.

Strikeouts may impact the ability to score runs by advancing runners (though that's not really backed by the numbers AFAIK) but it will not continue at this level... Nothing close to it.

 

With the bases empty, the Twins are OPSing higher than Joe Mauer's career number. That's amazing.

 

With runners on base, the Twins are OPSing at 67% of Drew Butera's career number. That's so bad it's, again, amazing... Albeit in a far less enjoyable manner.

[clutterheart]

 

This entire situation is... just... weird.

 

All numbers without context are weird.  If you put the SO numbers into the equation it all makes sense. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

All numbers without context are weird. If you put the SO numbers into the equation it all makes sense.

No, it doesn't. There is no statistical explanation for a team to OPS .850 with the bases empty and .350 with a runner on base. None. If a team strikes out so often to be a detriment, it will apply to all hitting situations, not just the situations that matter most.

[Willihammer]

There is some bad luck on offense, although according to baseruns, the pitching has benefited from good luck. Overall, the luck is bad. They should be 2-4 according to BaseRuns

 

edit: I forgot, BaseRuns. Swap "luck" for "sequencing."

[Jham]

 

Okay, this season is quickly descending into the land of the ridiculous, pure Alice in Wonderland territory.

 

Here are some things to mull over:

 

1. The Twins pitching staff has actually been pretty good. They're sporting a 4.11 ERA, good for 13th in all of baseball. Going into the season, that was "best case scenario" territory for me. If an AL team's pitching is in the top half of MLB, they're doing okay for themselves.

 

2. The Twins offense has an .858 OPS with the bases empty. That's good for third in all of baseball. Huzzah, amirite?

 

3. The Twins offense has a .335 OPS (WTF?!?!?!) with runners on base. Not RISP, just on base. As you can imagine, that's last in all of MLB because seriously. How can an entire team even do that?

 

4. Twins pitchers have allowed 53 hits, 22 walks, and given up 26 runs in the process. That seems reasonable. Roughly one out of three players to reach base end up crossing home plate.

 

5. Twins hitters have 45 hits, 18 walks, and have scored... just 12 times. That's absurd. One out of every 5-6 players to reach base is crossing home plate. To quote Ron Burgundy, "And you ate the whole... wheel of cheese? How'd you do that? Heck, I'm not even mad; that's amazing."

 

Despite the painful first six games, this team hasn't been awful. They've been various shades of good, mediocre, and absolutely horrible in the clutch (both the bullpen and offense). That won't hold up forever, we simply need the team to right ship before this season is put to bed in mid-April.

 

This entire situation is... just... weird.

 

Ah... more evidence of the existence of clutch, even if we don't have a metric for it...  Or luck...  No metric for that either.  We're really unlucky, or really un-clutch, or a combo platter of the two.  I hope it's bad luck, cuz I'm a big believer in the law of averages to the statistical mind, and karma for those more spiritual in nature.  I think the Universe/Bell-Curve owe us some good luck going forward after this start, and I'm optimistic that as long as we keep pitching well, we'll be ok.  Also, some softer competition would help.

 

[COtwin]

What is odd about this is that all of our "professional' hitters were talking about being ready at the end of spring training.  Apparently the entire team needs to take March more seriously.  Maybe Mollie should have tried to get more at bats against better pitchers for our starting lineup.  So many unprofessional at-bats to this point.  And not just by Rosario, Buxton, and Sano.

[Mike Sixel]

Agree with both Brock and others......the strikeouts are the explanation, and they can't continue at this pace.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ah... more evidence of the existence of clutch, even if we don't have a metric for it...  Or luck...  No metric for that either.  We're really unlucky, or really un-clutch, or a combo platter of the two.  I hope it's bad luck, cuz I'm a big believer in the law of averages to the statistical mind, and karma for those more spiritual in nature.  I think the Universe/Bell-Curve owe us some good luck going forward after this start, and I'm optimistic that as long as we keep pitching well, we'll be ok.  Also, some softer competition would help.

 

Except clutch, for a team, isn't generally consistent year to year. They were SUPER clutch last May.....but I do think something like clutch exists....

[Loosey]

 

Strikeouts may impact the ability to score runs by advancing runners (though that's not really backed by the numbers AFAIK) but it will not continue at this level... Nothing close to it.

 

With the bases empty, the Twins are OPSing higher than Joe Mauer's career number. That's amazing.

 

With runners on base, the Twins are OPSing at 67% of Drew Butera's career number. That's so bad it's, again, amazing... Albeit in a far less enjoyable manner.

I agree it can't continue (at least it shouldn't), but as of now this is the reason why they aren't scoring when they get on base.  And as you mentioned it is really odd to have such extremes in those situations.

 

Hopefully they will break through in a game or two and take some pressure off of themselves in RISP situations.  Yesterday they had the leadoff guy on almost every inning it felt like and only managed to get 3 runs hopefully not sustainable.

 

Since I don't know how to look it up, someone should check out the Twins Strikeout rate with RISP and with guys on base.  I would bet it's 50%+.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Since I don't know how to look it up, someone should check out the Twins Strikeout rate with RISP and with guys on base.  I would bet it's 50%+.

Bases empty: 131 PAs, 37 SO, 28% K rate

 

Runners on: 95 PAs, 35 SO, 37% K rate

 

Obviously, it's horrible to K that often with runners on base but it's also a statistical aberration. Opposing pitchers don't have a magic "strikeout button" with runners on base.

 

And a 9% K rate increase doesn't explain away 540 (!) points of OPS.

 

540 points of OPS is 1.1 Drew Buteras.

 

Offensively, the Twins have been ridiculously unlucky. That will change. The only question in my mind is whether it can change quickly enough to salvage the season.

[Loosey]

That's crazy, 42% of their plate appearances have come with runners on base and have only scored 12 runs!  That's statistically an anamoly that should change.  Hopefully a 10 run onslaught against the Sox will get things going.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's crazy, 42% of their plate appearances have come with runners on base and have only scored 12 runs!  That's statistically an anamoly that should change.

It's what happens when a team posts an OPS of .850 with the bases empty. You'll get a lot of base runners that way.

[Mike Sixel]

but, weren't we told that sequencing is bunk, and that was not how the Twins won 83 games last year, that that was their true talent? I'm so confused, Brock.

[TheLeviathan]

Things will get better, but I think the flaws still run deep.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

but, weren't we told that sequencing is bunk, and that was not how the Twins won 83 games last year, that that was their true talent? I'm so confused, Brock.

Well, I'm not sure sequencing is entirely accurate... But it's at least somewhat accurate. Maybe a team can be a few wins +/- their sequencing because of bullpen depth, smart hitting, whatever... But any disparity beyond a few percentage points has to be (at least in part) luck-based.

 

Last year, the Twins had a very lucky May. It propelled what should have been a slightly under .500 team into the playoff hunt, despite the fact their luck ran out after May (and returned to neutral, IIRC). One lucky month kept a mediocre team "in it" until the end of the season.

 

I merely hope the opposite doesn't come true in 2016. We could very well be looking at a team that misses postseason contention because they're a mediocre team that got really unlucky for a month of play.

 

Basically, the exact opposite of what happened last season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Things will get better, but I think the flaws still run deep.

Sure. I'm not arguing this team is a 90 win team but they're a hell of a lot better than they've shown on the scoreboard thus far.

 

My biggest concern is that a luck-neutral Twins team isn't good enough to dig themselves out of what is rapidly becoming a very deep hole.

[TheLeviathan]

Well, sure Brock, I think we'll all agree they won't go 0-162.

 

Pre-season I thought this team could be anything from a 75 win to a 90 win team.  We're trending towards the bottom end of that.  But that doesn't mean we have to go chicken little - young players need to adjust and we may see some serious growing pains.  We've just compounded those struggles with some baffling roster decisions.

[d-mac]

 

 

5. Twins hitters have 45 hits, 18 walks, and have scored... just 12 times. That's absurd. One out of every 5-6 players to reach base is crossing home plate. To quote Ron Burgundy, "And you ate the whole... wheel of cheese? How'd you do that? Heck, I'm not even mad; that's amazing."

 

 

 

When you lead baseball in strikeout rate... and by a fairly significant margin, 23rd in ISO, and 18th in walk rate, you're not going to score a lot of runs. Obviously things will get better, we are not going to lose every game and the sample sizes are still fairly small, so weird splits happen. But this offense looks like it's going to be bad this year, unless this entire team has a radical adjustment at the plate. 

 

This team is also 8th in BABIP (.320 right now, league average is generally .297-.299). That won't hold up either. So where do we expect the adjustment to come from? A team with a bunch of singles hitters, that walks at a below average rate CANNOT lead baseball in strikeout rate and expect to compete for a playoff spot.

[FunnyPenguin]

I'm just pumped because after we utterly humiliate the Sox today, our moods will be uplifted.  

[markos]

Part of the current problem is that the good hitters right now (Mauer, Escobar and, to a lesser extent, Dozier) are split up in the order. Those three have predominately batted with the bases empty, while others (like Sano, Park, Suzuki, Murphy) have had the majority of their at bats with runners on. I wonder what the difference in runs scored would be if Escobar was batting in the #2 spot between Dozier and Mauer. 

[Platoon]

Striking out 37% of the time with RISP is not bad luck. Hitting a line drive at the third baseman is bad luck. According to my info the Twins were last in the AL in on base % last year. The lead off hitter was at .307! And it's not getting any better. There are going to be a lot of solo HR's. I said in a different post, guys don't ramp up in pressure situations, but some do calm down more than others. That to me is the real definition of "clutch".

[Taildragger8791]

I have to imagine some of that disparity is the result of the good pitchers we've faced who can take advantage of a swing-happy, contact-deficient lineup when runners get on base by throwing more junk. Especially since we don't have any good base stealers getting on who can take advantage of those pitches. Add to that what Markos suggested with the more successful hitters being interspersed with the strikeout guys and it makes sense how the strikeout rate is so much higher with runners on.

[ashbury]

Striking out 37% of the time with RISP is not bad luck. Hitting a line drive at the third baseman is bad luck. According to my info the Twins were last in the AL in on base % last year. The lead off hitter was at .307! And it's not getting any better. There are going to be a lot of solo HR's. I said in a different post, guys don't ramp up in pressure situations, but some do calm down more than others. That to me is the real definition of "clutch".

And yet the 2015 Twins, with basically the same guys, were better in every conceivable clutch situation than with the bases empty.

 

We don't usually label a guy a power hitter one year and punch-and-judy the next year, or vice versa - we talk about slumps and hot hands and so forth - but we're very happy to look inside his head and pronounce whether he's clutch or not on such a basis.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Striking out 37% of the time with RISP is not bad luck.

No one said it was.

 

But seeing a 540 (!) point drop in OPS is bad luck and it can't be explained away by a 9% increase in strikeouts... Not even close.

[Kepler Verge]

I think the Twins need to hire a sports psychologist or something.  Baseball is so mental and a lot of this early April and RISP stuff comes from pressing waaay too hard.

[jimmer]

Twins pitching staff 20th in FIP.  Twins rotation 20th in FIP.

[jimmer]

 

but, weren't we told that sequencing is bunk, and that was not how the Twins won 83 games last year, that that was their true talent? I'm so confused, Brock.

Good question.  When a team is last in the AL in OBP, 13th in the AL in OPS and yet 8th in runs scored, that's advantageous sequencing.  Sequencing you can't count on again.  

[Zachary]

I am not a big proponent of giving up an out and bunting guys over. But until this team can prove they can take a professional at bat with RISP I think they need to bunt and hope someone can at least put a ball into the outfield before the next strikeout.

 

Well, apparently they even suck at that