Sickels on Jorge Polanco

[Seth Stohs]

John Sickels from Minor League Ball shared his comments from his prospect handbook on Jorge Polanco. He said it was basically a copy and paste from the previous year. He added a couple of paragraphs more.

 

What do you think? 

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/3/24/11293302/thoughts-on-twins-prospect-jorge-polanco 

[diehardtwinsfan]

your link is broken.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/3/24/11293302/thoughts-on-twins-prospect-jorge-polanco

 

[kab21]

I think it is a pretty fair take and something people should keep in mind when they say 'better than Dozier'.

[Mike Sixel]

top 75 prospect sounds like a guy that could be better than Dozier, I'm not sure I understand the previous post.

[Vanimal46]

In the unfortunate circumstance where Dozier or Escobar is hurt for an extended period of time, I think Polanco could jump right in and contribute.

 

I've tried looking this up with no success. How many options does Polanco have left? It'd be a shame to run out of options before knowing what Polanco can do at the MLB level.

[amjgt]

This will be his 3rd year on the 40 man, right? 

 

He was on the 40 man in 2014, when he got the emergency call up for a couple games.

[kab21]

 

top 75 prospect sounds like a guy that could be better than Dozier, I'm not sure I understand the previous post.

 

You don't trade a really good player because you have a borderline top 100 prospect.  Polanco could be an excellent player but that would be a really risky move.

[Han Joelo]

I feel like whatever happens with Minnesota, and even disregarding whatever his grade is, Polanco just seems like a guy who is going to have a good, long, major league career.  I guess I mean his floor is pretty solid.

[Thrylos]

Got to love it when the discussion is on Polanco, but Dozier's name is coming up

 

I think that based on Sickel's definitions of ratings, he should be at least a solid B.   Also think that people in general have been ranking the Twins' International Free Agent & esp. Latin American prospects lower than where there should be ranked.   Sano and Rosario, in addition to Polanco, are prime examples of this, if you compare to some of the rankings of drafted players.   Maybe just part of somone not covering them when they were about to be drafted. 

 

Always thought that Polanco has All Star SS written all over him.  Jeter might be a good comparable for his ceiling here and his floor is a certain former Twins' SS, turned TV analyst...   Polanco is MLB-ready now.

 

I know that I am more bullish on Polanco than most, but I was so for Sano as well...

[Mike Sixel]

 

You don't trade a really good player because you have a borderline top 100 prospect.  Polanco could be an excellent player but that would be a really risky move.

 

I didn't say you should, didn't even hint at it. I said "a top 75 prospect could be better than dozier". 

[Willihammer]

Polanco seems like the rare Twins MI prospect who can take a walk. If the glove is there, that's a pretty promising prospect.

[nicksaviking]

 

Polanco seems like the rare Twins MI prospect who can take a walk. If the glove is there, that's a pretty promising prospect.

 

Yes, this is my biggest hope for him. This system has a distinct lack of top of the order guys who can get on base at an above average clip. Even if Buxton does pan out, there's two spots up there. If Buxton doesn't pan out there is basically no long term Plan B. Polanco may be quite important.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

In the unfortunate circumstance where Dozier or Escobar is hurt for an extended period of time, I think Polanco could jump right in and contribute.

I've tried looking this up with no success. How many options does Polanco have left? It'd be a shame to run out of options before knowing what Polanco can do at the MLB level.

 

I believe he's a 4 year option guy.  Not sure if this is year three or four.

 

Even Sickle's has noted that Polanco still needs time in AAA.  I'm not sure that's changed.  Age is clearly on his side, that part I think we agree, and yeah, he could be pretty good.  Dozier, on the other hand, has been very good.  I don't see Jorge topping those numbers any time soon. I think Jorge might be a nice trade chip to dangle in the event the Twins are shoppers at the deadline, especially when you consider that they could always put Levi Michael on the 40 man if for some reason they needed another 2B.

[Vanimal46]

 

I believe he's a 4 year option guy.  Not sure if this is year three or four.

 

Even Sickle's has noted that Polanco still needs time in AAA.  I'm not sure that's changed.  Age is clearly on his side, that part I think we agree, and yeah, he could be pretty good.  Dozier, on the other hand, has been very good.  I don't see Jorge topping those numbers any time soon. I think Jorge might be a nice trade chip to dangle in the event the Twins are shoppers at the deadline, especially when you consider that they could always put Levi Michael on the 40 man if for some reason they needed another 2B.

That's good to know. This would be year 3 of the option years as amjgt reminded us he was added to the 40 man in 2014. 

When it's all said and done I think that's what Polanco is going to be - a trade chip. I don't think it's going to be this year, in case if Escobar regresses. Going forward, unless he transitions to 3B, he's a man without a path to the MLB. Let's hope he mashes AAA pitching this year and becomes even more of an asset for the team.  

[Steve Penz]

 

The Twins also need to be sure that if Dozier or Excobar goes down, they call Polanco up and play him every day rather than putting in Nunez or some other temporary placeholder that we already know can't be an everyday MLB player. As a long time fan, I have to say it's nice to actually have real options in case of injury for a change instead of having to fill in with below average journeymen or another team's castoffs. 

This is huge; well said.  Are Danny Santana or Eduardo Nunez going to be long-term pieces of the Twins?  No.  If anything happens to Dozier or Escobar they need to get Polanco up and play him in those spots.  Use an unfortunate circumstance to learn something about a younger player.  By many accounts his bat is ready to go now.   

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe Polanco could be better than both Santana and even Escobar right away in 2016.

 

Minor league stats of Twins current MI's:

PA, BB%, OPS

 

Polanco 2221, 8.5%, .752

Santana 2514, 5.2%, .718

Escobar 2734, 6.0%, .675

Dozier 1613, 9.5%, .779

[Thrylos]

 

Maybe Polanco could be better than both Santana and even Escobar right away in 2016.

Minor league stats of Twins current MI's:
PA, BB%, OPS

Polanco 2221, 8.5%, .752
Santana 2514, 5.2%, .718
Escobar 2734, 6.0%, .675
Dozier 1613, 9.5%, .779

 

 

FOUL.

 

Apples with apples.

 

In Polanco's age now (and Santana's back then and Escobar's back then) Dozier was still hitting with an aluminum bat.

 

 

[Bob Sacamento]

Good to see Polanco is playing 3B often now for the AAA squad and he's looked good showing off plus range and strong arm.  Talked to him after the game  and he said whatever it takes to get to the big leagues

 

 

[lightfoot789]

GREAT defensive second baseman with a MLB bat.  Wasted talent.  Needs to be playing for someone. 

[DocBauer]

Imagine if he could relax and smooth out his defense. As much as I like and respect Escobar, Polanco should flat out out hit and out perform him. How much better and deeper is the lineup with him in it every day?

[kab21]

 

GREAT defensive second baseman with a MLB bat.  Wasted talent.  Needs to be playing for someone. 

Bad teams have a plan B that consists of Pedro Florimon and James Beresford (I like him) types.  When plan A fails (and it has repeatedly for the Twins recently) then they are stuck with an absolute disaster for the remainder of the season.

 

Good teams have a plan B that consists of a Jorge Polanco level prospect and when an injury happens or complete ineffectiveness of a starter then they can plug in a guy and not take a big step back.

 

Depth is not a bad thing.  Jorge is 22 and his talent isn't being wasted by spending time in the minors when superior players are playing in front of him at the MLB level.  Perhaps if he was 25 and he was in his 3rd straight year of AAA dominance but he has a total of 22 GP in AAA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

FOUL.

 

Apples with apples.

 

In Polanco's age now (and Santana's back then and Escobar's back then) Dozier was still hitting with an aluminum bat.

And Dozier is one of those rare players whose MiLB numbers meant NOTHING after he received MLB playing time and surpassed all expectations and projections.

 

If you get to cry foul over MiLB age seasons, I certainly get to cry foul over you dismissing TWO THOUSAND MLB plate appearances where Dozier has been *way* above average with the stick.

[diehardtwinsfan]

.739 OPS in AA and .661 OPS in AAA in 2015.  The foul here is calling Polanco a major league ready bat. He may be close, and may be there this year, but that bat is hardly a sure thing to succeed, and his defense certainly isn't warranting a trial over Escobar and Dozier. 

[Thrylos]

 

 I certainly get to cry foul over you dismissing TWO THOUSAND MLB plate appearances where Dozier has been *way* above average with the stick.

 

Career Dozier MLB OPS+ = 99

Average OPS+ = 100

 

I'd say that Dozier has been an about average MLB hitter, won't you?

 

"way above average" would be something like an 125-130 OPS+

 

I am not dismissing anything, it seems that you are "way above" overate him

 

[lightfoot789]

The Twins are right in the way they are handling Polanco.  It just sucks for him, because he could be playing second base for a few teams in the league right now.  Every player is not an all star and I'm not saying Polanco is.  I'm just saying he could play now and probably ends up a Nunez career wise because of who is in front of him.

 

I would love to see him mature as a young player in the league as opposed to becoming a lifetime backup because we should hold on to him.  Twins are right - Just sucks for him.  Things really aren't going to change for him if Dozier and Escobar play really well over the next 3 - 6 years. That's the business side of baseball

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Career Dozier MLB OPS+ = 99

Average OPS+ = 100

 

I'd say that Dozier has been an about average MLB hitter, won't you?

 

"way above average" would be something like an 125-130 OPS+

 

I am not dismissing anything, it seems that you are "way above" overate him

1. I didn't use his career numbers, as they don't reflect the hitter he has been for over 2 1/2 seasons.

 

2. OPS+ does not adjust for position, which kinda renders it moot when using it as a baseline for "average hitter". Brian Dozier is one of the better-hitting second basemen in MLB.

 

I'm not overrating Dozier. I think he's an above average player. A very good player overall because he's fundamentally solid in so many aspects of the game.

 

It's you who continually underrates him by suggesting Dozier is inferior to a guy who hasn't cracked even a .750 OPS in AA.

[Linus]

Polanco still has plenty to prove before we need to worry about wasting away in the minors

[DaveW]

 

You don't trade a really good player because you have a borderline top 100 prospect.  Polanco could be an excellent player but that would be a really risky move.

Agreed, Dozier shouldn't be moved to make room for Polanco.

Escobar on the other hand......

 

 

[DaveW]

 

Career Dozier MLB OPS+ = 99

Average OPS+ = 100

 

I'd say that Dozier has been an about average MLB hitter, won't you?

 

"way above average" would be something like an 125-130 OPS+

 

I am not dismissing anything, it seems that you are "way above" overate him

Dozier is likely a 106-112 OPS+ hitter moving forward. And yes, that is actually above average for a 2nd baseman...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Dozier is likely a 106-112 OPS+ hitter moving forward. And yes, that is actually above average for a 2nd baseman...

Yep. Dozier has an OPS+ of 108 over the past two seasons. It's hard to find season-by-season data but second basemen historically average an OPS+ between 85 and the low 90s. That means Dozier is 15-20% better than the average second baseman.