The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP

[kab21]

If the Twins wanted to sign Liriano then they shouldn't have been running his name through the mud the last couple of years in the press. I pretty much don't see any chance of Liriano resigning with the Twins unless they are by far the largest bidder.

 

I also think that Liriano could be one of the biggest values of the offseason. He'll probably sign for about the same as Brandon McCarthy. Now there is a guy that looks like a prototypical Twins pitcher. Low K's and BB's. Get ready for him on a 3/30 deal.

[Twins GFP]

The Twins should proceed as follows:

 

1) Offer him a 2 yr/$14 mil contract. The Twins know what they have, the inconsistencies translate to 4-5th starter money. His ability to run a great string of innings probably boosts his value a little. When he declines that:

2) Look to trade him for anything of greater value than the sandwich pick. If that doesn't happen:

3) Make him the 1 yr qualifying offer. If he takes it, the Twins are only on the hook for one year. One year deals (even $12 mil ones) don't hamstring you. If he declines, the Twins get the pick.

 

It's that simple.

 

On a related note, does anybody know if there is a limit to the number of times a team can "offer" a player? For example, if the Twins offer Liriano the $12 mil qualifying offer, and he accepts, can they do it again next year? Is there a limit to the number of times they can do that?

[Guest USAFChief]

Sadly, it might already be too late to get Liriano inked to a reasonable 3 yr deal. If it had been done last winter, or even a month ago, 3/24 was very doable, and one spot in the rotation for the next three years would be filled with a guy capable of what we've seen for short stretches at the least, and much much more at best.

 

Instead, we're left with hoping Walters/Deduno/Devries types, supplemented by the next Marques level free agents, can form the backbone of a good rotation.

[James Richter]

The Twins should proceed as follows:

 

1) Offer him a 2 yr/$14 mil contract. The Twins know what they have, the inconsistencies translate to 4-5th starter money. His ability to run a great string of innings probably boosts his value a little. When he declines that:

2) Look to trade him for anything of greater value than the sandwich pick. If that doesn't happen:

3) Make him the 1 yr qualifying offer. If he takes it, the Twins are only on the hook for one year. One year deals (even $12 mil ones) don't hamstring you. If he declines, the Twins get the pick.

 

It's that simple.

 

On a related note, does anybody know if there is a limit to the number of times a team can "offer" a player? For example, if the Twins offer Liriano the $12 mil qualifying offer, and he accepts, can they do it again next year? Is there a limit to the number of times they can do that?

$14M might be a shade too lowball, but this is essentially exactly what the Twins' approach should be. And I haven't seen anything to suggest that a team couldn't make qualifying offers indefinitely.

[70charger]

I don't think the Twins should be that active in the free agent market. Long term, the smart money is in building the farm. Everyone has referenced "overpaying," and one person has countered that that's the market rate. I say that that's the market rate FOR FREE AGENTS, and that still may mean overpaying by comparison to talent coming up from the minor leagues.

 

Liriano is not going to singlehandedly get us into the playoffs in 2013. Flip him, get prospects, and plan for the future. Long-term deal silliness aside, even signing him to a one-year deal is a very expensive way of trying to catch lightning in a bottle. A cheaper way of trying to catch lightning in a bottle would be letting Liriano go and giving a set rotation spot to someone like Liam Hendriks and letting him take his lumps. Worst case, he's no worse than a bad Liriano. Best case, he's another Scott Diamond circa 2012.

[Mike Sixel]

Could not disagree more that they should ignore free agency.

[70charger]

Could not disagree more that they should ignore free agency.

 

Straw man. I said they should not be that active, not that they should ignore it (that's just dumb). Pick up a couple of starting pitchers in the $5-8 million range, and call it a day. The Twins cannot go blowing their wad on a $100 million contract for Greinke, etc. They need focus on the farm or we'll go from the worst team in 2012 to a third place team in 2013 to the worst team in 2014-2017. This short term focus is ridiculous.

[tpb8]

Sadly, it might already be too late to get Liriano inked to a reasonable 3 yr deal. If it had been done last winter, or even a month ago, 3/24 was very doable, and one spot in the rotation for the next three years would be filled with a guy capable of what we've seen for short stretches at the least, and much much more at best.

 

Instead, we're left with hoping Walters/Deduno/Devries types, supplemented by the next Marques level free agents, can form the backbone of a good rotation.

If they had signed him to that deal in the off-season the uproar over his 1st half would have been massive. He's been a flop for most of the season. When the season still mattered, when we were just a team with hope like all the other teams, he was awful. The season has been over for quite some time, and suddenly he's pitching well and everyone is ready to hand over big money to this head case? I'm sorry, but that's called being a sucker.

[Guest USAFChief]

Straw man. I said they should not be that active, not that they should ignore it (that's just dumb). Pick up a couple of starting pitchers in the $5-8 million range, and call it a day. The Twins cannot go blowing their wad on a $100 million contract for Greinke, etc. They need focus on the farm or we'll go from the worst team in 2012 to a third place team in 2013 to the worst team in 2014-2017. This short term focus is ridiculous.

Please name the "couple of starting pitchers in the $5-8 million range" who are going to sign one year deals and/or be worth long term deals at that money.

[DaveW]

I'm pretty confident if the Twins offered him 3/30 he would accept immediately.

 

It should also be noted he had the lowest FIP in the AL in 2010, so its not like these last 10 starts have come out of no where.

 

How to fix the rotation:

Give Liriano 3/24mm-30mm contract with a 4th year team option.

Give Baker a 1 year 2 mil base contract, up to 5 mil with IP (1 Mil for every milestone 100 IP, 120, 140,160, 180)

or sign some veteran dude for 3-4 million.

I also wouldn't mind taking a run at Josh Johnson who shouldn't break the bank.

 

Liriano

Baker

Diamond

Gibson

Hendriks

 

In the wings (Walters, DeVries, Wimmers?, Blackburn)

[stringer bell]

IIRC, it isn't arbitration that is offered. It is a dollar offer that is high enough to qualify for a sandwich pick. Arbitration would indicate that an arbitrator would select from between a team offer and the player offer.

[Mike Sixel]

Fair enough, I misread your comment. I'm not a big fan of signing mediocre players, that's how you end up bad in 2014-2017. Either sign great players, or low cost bench players, but not mediocre players. I also don't agree with your implication that you cannot sign legit, big time FAs, and fix the minors both. Perhaps I am again misreading your post, but that seems to be the implication. Signing Greinke (or some other super expensive guy) does not effect how you draft and develop players.

[Guest USAFChief]

IIRC, it isn't arbitration that is offered. It is a dollar offer that is high enough to qualify for a sandwich pick. Arbitration would indicate that an arbitrator would select from between a team offer and the player offer.

Correct. If he declines, one sandwich pick in return.

 

Qualifying offer shud be in the $12.5m range.

[Siehbiscuit]

The Twins starting rotation in 2013 will be atrocious without a Willingham or Span trade that nets us a elite pitching prospect that will be able to make the rotation next year. The Twins do not hand out large FA contracts! The largest FA contract ever offered in the Twins history was this last off-season for Willingham @ 3years and 21 million. The offense is good, not great. This team needs Willingham's RH bat more than we need Span. There are a few mid-to high minor guys that could make the leap next year.

 

As far a Liriano goes, the Twins will not go after a BIG fish in FA. A "sandwich" pick is probably less likely to make an impact (ever) as it is that Liriano can prove to be a solid pitcher for the rotation. The Twins will not be good in 2013, but they do need want to be competitive. Rolling the dice on Liriano needs to be done and by rolling the dice I mean offering a 3 yeart deal at $8-10 million a year. If he retains the present form, Liriano will be will worth the investment. If he reverts to a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher he will only be worth about half of that. His last two months alone has driven his trade value up considerably and unless one team falls in love with his potential and is willing to overpay with a soon-to-be ready pitching prospect, the Twins need to keep Liriano. I know thats not popular, but teams do see potential and as fans we see and hold on to the "warts" much more than the businessmen that are making these decisions.

[snepp]

Qualifying offer shud be in the $12.5m range.

For shame Chief.

[Guest USAFChief]

For shame Chief.

 

Hey, I text. LOL. BTW I LMAO @ ur last. TY.

[snepp]

Hey, I text. LOL. BTW I LMAO @ ur last. TY.

Get off my lawn.

[Vervehound]

Get off my lawn.

heh heh

[old nurse]

Last year Buerhle got 4 years and 58 million. I don't recall there being another good left-hander out there. The arbitration number is way too high for Liriano given Buerhle's contract. Wit a plan of offering the 12 million contract he Twins could get Liriano for a year, overpaying, and have a little more time to sort out which pitcher he really is or risk losing him. The question is which is more valuable. A sandwich pick or a decent prospect and a middling one.

[TheLeviathan]

It should also be noted he had the lowest FIP in the AL in 2010, so its not like these last 10 starts have come out of no where.

He was BRILLIANT in 2010. Made a believer out of me and had me going into 2011 excited that we had our Frankie back. Then 2011 happened. There is nothing but speculation to the idea that Frankie would accept a team friendly deal. And while some like to throw around "prove the negative" fallacies to answer that charge, it's nevertheless true. There is virtually no reason for Frankie to take a discounted deal at this point.

 

And, to me, anything more than an incentive laden deal with minimal guaranteed money is a bad investment. Just because you have money doesn't mean you have to feel compelled to spend it on high risk bets.

[notoriousgod71]

Liriano is better than anyone we would acquire via trade or FA. Even if we only get "half a season" out of him it's still half a season more than any of our other starters.

 

I would rather spend twice as much on him than I would to sign two Marquis/Hernandez/Ortiz/Ponson's. You can't open up a season with Diamond, Walters, Blackburn, Devries, whatever ****ty FA we sign. You just can't.

[jctwins]

Liriano is better than anyone we would acquire via trade or FA (about 25% of the time, and when he's not having mental issues). Even if we only get "half a season" out of him it's still half a season more than any of our other starters.

 

I would rather spend twice as much on him than I would to sign two Marquis/Hernandez/Ortiz/Ponson's. You can't open up a season with Diamond, Walters, Blackburn, Devries, whatever ****ty FA we sign. You just can't.

Fixed

[StormJH1]

Liriano is better than anyone we would acquire via trade or FA. Even if we only get "half a season" out of him it's still half a season more than any of our other starters.

 

I would rather spend twice as much on him than I would to sign two Marquis/Hernandez/Ortiz/Ponson's. You can't open up a season with Diamond, Walters, Blackburn, Devries, whatever ****ty FA we sign. You just can't.

First, lets not use "our other starters" as the measuring bar for successful starting pitching. Haha.

 

Second, I agree with the general premise that it's far more likely we sign Liriano and get success out of him than enticing a FA pitcher to come to our loser team and getting 1st or 2nd starter success out of him. But that doesn't necessarily mean we should do it if it requires a $12M/yr commitment, which may end up being like 65% of the money we have to spend next year. That money needs to fill about 3 rotation spots, as well as a middle infielder and other needs.

 

Plus, Liriano may not even want to be here. Put yourself in Liriano's shoes...he was an absolute phenom in 2006 for a few months, but never got paid before needed TJ surgery. His salary has gone up during his arbitration years, but did you ever get the sense he was really happy here? It's not like there's a huge Latin presence on this team (since departure of Santana, Luis Castillo, etc.) or the coaching staff. Gardy threw him under the bus on numerous occasions publicly, even subtly blaming him for some of Mauer's injuries early in 2011. I think he can get paid more somewhere else, and he may be ready to do that.

 

And also (not to be a Liriano downer), but I'll say it again: When has Liriano ever pitched well in situations when it really mattered? He's sucked in September even in his "good" years, either because of durability or composure. As good as he's been lately, his numbers are inflated by starts like the two against OAK (or his no-hitter against CWS last year) where he completely dominates, then gets annihilated a few starts later. Heading into a contract year, his ERA is still at 4.81, with a 1.40 WHIP.

[Oxtung]

For those of you who are on the "Resign Liriano NOW!!!" bus why is this year any different than previous seasons? Here is a chart showing the best stretches for the given year as well as his end of season ERA.

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 400]

Year

GS

ERA

WHIP

BB/9

K/9

Season ERA

'09

8

3.85

1.33

3.9

7.2

5.80

'11

7

2.20

0.98

3.8

8.0

5.09

'12

10

2.86

1.05

4.0

10.9

4.82

[/TABLE]

 

Each year he had an above average to great stretch. Each year, over the course of the whole year, he has been a below average to terrible pitcher. While Liriano has been very good over the last couple of months we have seen similar periods in each of his bad years. So what has changed for Liriano that this time his dominance is here to stay?

[Top Gun]

Why would you let your best pitcher walk? Just plain stupid!

[stringer bell]

Why would you let your best pitcher walk? Just plain stupid!

I hope baseball scouts think Frankie is as good as his numbers because I don't think he is. Yes, he can make hitters look silly and he will have periods where he is as tough as they come, but 1) he is an injury waiting to happen 2) his mindset is too fragile to be an ace 3) he will cost a lot of money to keep and 4) since he is a free agent at the end of the season, he is no sure bet to return to Minnesota even if the Twins want him to return. Add to this that Liriano has brought his value back from near nothing to substantial it is wise to trade him and get what they can.

[TheLeviathan]

For those of you who are on the "Resign Liriano NOW!!!" bus why is this year any different than previous seasons? Here is a chart showing the best stretches for the given year as well as his end of season ERA.

Stats make the Kool-Aid taste funny.....

[Top Gun]

ESPN's Jim Bowden reports the Phillies and Cole Hamels are working on a long-term extension "which could end up" in the range of six years and $142-144 million.

 

This is considerably higher than the six-year, $130 million contract that was reported earlier this week. The Phillies have intensified their efforts to sign Hamels, though it's not yet clear if this would be enough to get it done. The reported offer would pay Hamels significantly more than the $127.5 million extension the Giants gave Matt Cain earlier this season.

 

 

Source: Jim Bowden on Twitter

[John Bonnes]

ESPN's Jim Bowden reports the Phillies and Cole Hamels are working on a long-term extension "which could end up" in the range of six years and $142-144 million.

 

This is considerably higher than the six-year, $130 million contract that was reported earlier this week. The Phillies have intensified their efforts to sign Hamels, though it's not yet clear if this would be enough to get it done. The reported offer would pay Hamels significantly more than the $127.5 million extension the Giants gave Matt Cain earlier this season.

 

 

Source: Jim Bowden on Twitter

Wow. That's $24M/year. Holy cow.

[DaveW]

For those of you who are on the "Resign Liriano NOW!!!" bus why is this year any different than previous seasons? Here is a chart showing the best stretches for the given year as well as his end of season ERA.

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 400]

Year

GS

ERA

WHIP

BB/9

K/9

Season ERA

'09

8

3.85

1.33

3.9

7.2

5.80

'11

7

2.20

0.98

3.8

8.0

5.09

'12

10

2.86

1.05

4.0

10.9

4.82

[/TABLE]

 

Each year he had an above average to great stretch. Each year, over the course of the whole year, he has been a below average to terrible pitcher. While Liriano has been very good over the last couple of months we have seen similar periods in each of his bad years. So what has changed for Liriano that this time his dominance is here to stay?

That's cute that you completely left 2010 off.

 

Also his k/9 rate of 10.9 is the big difference...................