Article: Twins Appear To Be All In On Buxton

[d-mac]

 

Ummm... what? 

 

2015 ROC INT AAA 13 55 11 22 30 3 1 1 8 4 0 12 2 1 .400 .441 .545 .986 0.62
2015 CHA SOU AA 59 237 44 67 116 7 12 6 37 26 0 51 20 2 .283 .351 .489 .840 0.58

 

I meant plate appearances. 59 AAA plate appearances is a small sample size. 268 AA plate appearances his half a minor league seasons worth. Both of those came in 2015. Why does being injured in 2014 have to do with rushing him through the upper minors?

[d-mac]

 

I'm talking about elite speed. The only guy you listed who has elite speed is Billy Hamilton.

 

Billy Hamilton has more than elite speed. He's the second coming of Ricky Henderson. Why is he even in this discussion?

[bluechipper]

 

Billy Hamilton has more than elite speed. He's the second coming of Ricky Henderson. Why is he even in this discussion?

Hamilton is a better base stealer, but Buxton's speeed is right there with him.

[USAFChief]

 

Great, step 2 is realizing the flaw in your logic. Buxton could turn out to be one of those players, it happens to top prospects all the time. Baseball is a hard game. This ain't football, chief. 

Chief's not in this conversation.

 

But if he was, he'd ask everyone to tone it down a notch.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Billy Hamilton has more than elite speed. He's the second coming of Ricky Henderson. Why is he even in this discussion?

Eh, this is tangentially off-topic but I don't know if we'll ever see a second coming of Rickey. Was Rickey even the fastest guy in baseball at any point in his career? I'm not sure he was and if he ever held that title, it was for maybe a season or two (Coleman held that title from 85 onward). Henderson's greatest talent wasn't his speed, it was his preternatural ability to read a pitcher, both at the plate and on the basepaths. The man was a freak when it came to knowing what kind of lead to take and when to bolt toward the next base.

[Possumlad]

 

Hamilton is a better base stealer, but Buxton's speeed is right there with him.

I'm willing to bet Hamilton & Buxton would be neck and neck in a 100 yard dash. Buxton's brutal jumps are frustrating though; he appears to actually be a a pretty poor base stealer at this point, which is crazy given his speed.

[bluechipper]

 

I'm willing to bet Hamilton & Buxton would be neck and neck in a 100 yard dash. Buxton's brutal jumps are frustrating though; he appears to actually be a a pretty poor base stealer at this point, which is crazy given his speed.

Most people seem to think Molitor can have a really positive influence on Buxton's base stealing going forward, so hopefully that's the case.

[Thrylos]

 

Most people seem to think Molitor can have a really positive influence on Buxton's base stealing going forward, so hopefully that's the case.

 

Yeah, but you really need to get on base to steal it  

 

I wonder why they just don't have him try to bunt his way on base more.  That might be a way of getting out of the funk

[Possumlad]

 

Most people seem to think Molitor can have a really positive influence on Buxton's base stealing going forward, so hopefully that's the case.

This is eye-ball test only - but Buxton also appears to accelerate slowly (relative to his overall speed). He's blazing fast at top speed, but his long strides seem to take a few steps to get going. Anyone else notice this? Seems to hurt most on SBs. I could be flat-out wrong here.

[big dog]

 

Eh, this is tangentially off-topic but I don't know if we'll ever see a second coming of Rickey. Was Rickey even the fastest guy in baseball at any point in his career? I'm not sure he was and if he ever held that title, it was for maybe a season or two (Coleman held that title from 85 onward). Henderson's greatest talent wasn't his speed, it was his preternatural ability to read a pitcher, both at the plate and on the basepaths. The man was a freak when it came to knowing what kind of lead to take and when to bolt toward the next base.

Yeah, and Rickey had people so freaked out that they made mistakes from being nervous, etc.  The whole tone of the game was different when he was on base, and his speed was second to his incredible focus/ferocity about stealing bases.  Other guys stole a lot of bags, but I don't think anyone else affected the game the way he did.  Very special.

[d-mac]

 

Hamilton is a better base stealer, but Buxton's speeed is right there with him.

 

I always thought Hamilton's speed was more highly regarded as a minor leaguer. Sort of Hamilton... then everyone else. Buxton (legit 80 speed) was the top of the everyone else pile. 

[d-mac]

 

Yeah, but you really need to get on base to steal it

 

I wonder why they just don't have him try to bunt his way on base more.  That might be a way of getting out of the funk

 

He's not going to learn plate discipline by bunting, though. 

[bluechipper]

 

I always thought Hamilton's speed was more highly regarded as a minor leaguer. Sort of Hamilton... then everyone else. Buxton (legit 80 speed) was the top of the everyone else pile. 

If you're talking about stealing a base, then I'd definitely give Hamilton the edge. Running a ball down in the gap, and I'd take Buxton's long strides.

[alarp33]

 

This is eye-ball test only - but Buxton also appears to accelerate slowly (relative to his overall speed). He's blazing fast at top speed, but his long strides seem to take a few steps to get going. Anyone else notice this? Seems to hurt most on SBs. I could be flat-out wrong here.

 

When you are as fast as he is, I'm not sure it matters if he "starts slowly" in comparison to his high end speed... I'd imagine anyone who runs that fast at peak speed would appear to start slow on the eye test.   I think it's all about getting better jumps/ reads off the pitcher, something someone with his level of speed likely never needed to refine until he got to the majors. He was simply fast enough to steal any base he wanted in high school and the low minors, regardless of jump

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He's not going to learn plate discipline by bunting, though. 

Either way, bunting should be in the arsenal of any player with Buxton's skill set. It'd be a waste not to occasionally bunt for a basehit when the defense is playing back and/or sleeping.

[Willihammer]

Bunting is fine, hitting is better. I hope the Twins are always challenging Buxton to hit the ball over the fence, and not think about dropping it 25 feet down the foul line like they did with Gogo.

 

Pop quiz. How many of Gogo's PAs *ended* in the form of a bunt attempt? (this excludes the early- or mid-count bunt attempts before going to two-strikes because he failed to get the ball down)

 

Of the 963 PAs he took as a Twin, EIGHTY EIGHT ended in a bunt attempt.

 

By comparison, Andrew McCutchen has 12. For his career.

 

I hope the Twins are serious about envisioning Buxton as a McCutchen type player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Bunting is fine, hitting is better. I hope the Twins are always challenging Buxton to hit the ball over the fence, and not think about dropping it 25 feet down the foul line like they did with Gogo.

 

Pop quiz. How many of Gogo's PAs *ended* in the form of a bunt attempt? (this excludes the early- or mid-count bunt attempts before going to two-strikes because he failed to get the ball down)

 

Of the 963 PAs he took as a Twin, EIGHTY EIGHT ended in a bunt attempt.

 

By comparison, Andrew McCutchen has 12. For his career.

 

I hope the Twins are serious about envisioning Buxton as a McCutchen type player.

While I don't like seeing bunt attempts as often as Gomez tried it in Minnesota, his career bunt hit percentage is 43.3%.

 

I'll take a .433 OBP every day of the week.

[Darius]

Aaron Hicks didn't get enough time in the minors? D'ohK.

 

Have it ever occurred to anyone that maybe, just maybe, it takes time to learn the game at the major league level, and the number of minor league at-bats is unrelated to that learning curve?

 

Maybe it would have taken Gonez three years to figure out the nuances of major league baseball whether he spend 1 year in the minors or 10...Same with Hicks.

 

I think it's absolutely ridiculous that this whole service time issue has been turned into, "the number of minor league at bats directly related to major league success. Is it beneficial for a player to learn the game as an 18-20 year old? Absolutely. But, to think that 200 more minor league at bats for Aaron Hicks at this point, after he has shown success at all levels, is going to somehow turn him into a better major leaguer is just dumb, IMO.

 

Doing Algebra problems for 5 years, versus 2 or 3, isn't going to make you any more prepared for calculus.

 

I know where this is going to go next: "you'll damage their confidence and ruin them as a player." Another one bought hook, line, and sinker from office personnel. Is there a shred of evidence to support this notion? The way I look at it, if they can't figure it out without damaging their psyche beyond repair at 21, why would it be any different at 23? They were probably never going to be a great player in the first place, if they unravel under adversity.

[Blackjack]

 

 Good possibility he might have another subButerean year at the plate in the majors.

 

And what does that do for his confidence?? Some players can handle the beat down, some can't. 

 

My prediction is by mid-May he'll be back down to AAA, but the experience of starting the season in Minnesota and seeing what pitchers are doing to get him out will help in the long run by showing him what he needs to work on.

[tobi0040]

 

I always thought Hamilton's speed was more highly regarded as a minor leaguer. Sort of Hamilton... then everyone else. Buxton (legit 80 speed) was the top of the everyone else pile. 

 

I have read this from a few different sources now.  Billy Hamilton breaks the 20-80 scale for speed. 

 

Notice on the second link, 80 speed is 3.90 seconds to 1B for a lefty.  Billy was clocked at 3.3 seconds.  

 

So it is possible that Buxton has 80 speed but Hamilton is much faster.  Scouts commonly refer to Hamilton as having 90, or even 100 speed.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24479824/billy-hamiltons-sprint-to-1b-may-be-record-even-better-hes-hitting

 

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0ahUKEwik1v7s3cDLAhUI92MKHTJJDDQQFggkMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fathletewealth.com%2Fscouting%2F&usg=AFQjCNGhN7hEgELaMZXFPDhyLYwuIYJbjQ&bvm=bv.116636494,d.cGc

 

http://fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com/2013/10/22/billy-hamilton-2014-fantasy-baseball-value-steals-vince-coleman/

Edited March 14, 2016 by tobi0040

[Willihammer]

 

While I don't like seeing bunt attempts as often as Gomez tried it in Minnesota, his career bunt hit percentage is 43.3%.

 

I'll take a .433 OBP every day of the week.

Sure, when he got it down. As I said the denominator only includes PAs which ended on bunt attempts. At least I assume that is the case. Maybe someone can correct me if that's not true. If true, any time he squared to bunt, and fouled the ball or missed, took a strike, etc. and found himself in a 2-strike count, would not be counted.

[alarp33]

 

I have read this from a few different sources now.  Billy Hamilton breaks the 20-80 scale for speed. 

 

Notice on the second link, 80 speed is 3.90 seconds to 1B for a lefty.  Billy was clocked at 3.3 seconds.  

 

So it is possible that Buxton has 80 speed but Hamilton is much faster.  Scouts commonly refer to Hamilton as having 90, or even 100 speed.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24479824/billy-hamiltons-sprint-to-1b-may-be-record-even-better-hes-hitting

 

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0ahUKEwik1v7s3cDLAhUI92MKHTJJDDQQFggkMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fathletewealth.com%2Fscouting%2F&usg=AFQjCNGhN7hEgELaMZXFPDhyLYwuIYJbjQ&bvm=bv.116636494,d.cGc

 

http://fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com/2013/10/22/billy-hamilton-2014-fantasy-baseball-value-steals-vince-coleman/

 

According to Statcast, his (Buxton) speed topped out at 21.39 mph, which is A) fast enough to get you pulled over in a Massachusetts school zone and .41 miles faster than Billy Hamilton's last triple, hit on May 13 against the Braves and maxing out at 20.98 mph. It's even faster than Jarrod Dyson's triple on May 10, which clocked in at 21.03 mph.

[by jiminy]

 

"There is no point in letting him demolish inferior opponents"

But he hasn't demolished AAA pitching. He hasn't even faced it. We don't know if he can hit an AAA curveball. All we know is he can't hit them in MLB. Seems like it might be worth letting him learn and prove that he can in AAA first.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sure, when he got it down. As I said the denominator only includes PAs which ended on bunt attempts. At least I assume that is the case. Maybe someone can correct me if that's not true. If true, any time he squared to bunt, and fouled the ball or missed, took a strike, etc. and found himself in a 2-strike count, would not be counted.

You are correct though it should be noted that the BUH% stat also includes sacrifice bunts.

 

It'd be nice if they broke out intended sacrifices. The stat would be far more useful without that noise mixed in.

 

Gomez's actual bunting average might be 45% once you remove sacrifices. It might be 60%. Dunno.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

But he hasn't demolished AAA pitching. He hasn't even faced it. We don't know if he can hit an AAA curveball. 

Small sample, but oh yes he has. .400/.441/.545 in Rochester last year.  

[Vanimal46]

 

And what does that do for his confidence?? Some players can handle the beat down, some can't. 

 

My prediction is by mid-May he'll be back down to AAA, but the experience of starting the season in Minnesota and seeing what pitchers are doing to get him out will help in the long run by showing him what he needs to work on.

I hope the Twins don't do that unless if Buxton's putting up 2013 Aaron Hicks-like numbers through the first month and a half. However if that's the scenario, I agree with you that Buxton can bounce back and benefit in the long run. He seems to make adjustments at each level after initially struggling, and it doesn't seem like his confidence would shatter like Hicks did during his Twins career. 

[Willihammer]

 

You are correct though it should be noted that the BUH% stat also includes sacrifice bunts.

 

It'd be nice if they broke out intended sacrifices. The stat would be far more useful without that noise mixed in.

 

Gomez's actual bunting average might be 45% once you remove sacrifices. It might be 60%. Dunno.

It is impossibly noisy IMO. The two-strike dynamic, the sac bunt angle, which in truth how many times are sac bunts 100% sacrifice? More like a semi-sacrifice I'd say, in most cases.

 

Bottom line, a well placed bunt is a good tool to have in the back of your toolkit. It shouldn't be front and center like the Twins had with Gogo.

 

There was an article on bunting I had read way back that attempted to put a finer understanding on the effectiveness of sac bunting and IIRC it included a stat that said something like 50% of PAs where a bunt was attempted at one point, the PA reached two strikes and the bunt attempt was abandoned. If you assume that was the case with Gogo, that would mean almost one in 5 PAs were a bunt atttempt. Obviously that was a terrible squandering of his power skill.

[Shaitan]

I feel that SB is a skill often learned in MLB, as minor league players are sloppier on defense (throws and tags) and the pitchers are on a lower level as well. In AA or whatever, a player can steal on speed alone so they aren't forced to learn that extra step until at the higher level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It is impossibly noisy IMO. The two-strike dynamic, the sac bunt angle, which in truth how many times are sac bunts 100% sacrifice? More like a semi-sacrifice I'd say, in most cases.

 

Bottom line, a well placed bunt is a good tool to have in the back of your toolkit. It shouldn't be front and center like the Twins had with Gogo.

 

There was an article on bunting I had read way back that attempted to put a finer understanding on the effectiveness of sac bunting and IIRC it included a stat that said something like 50% of PAs where a bunt was attempted at one point, the PA reached two strikes and the bunt attempt was abandoned. If you assume that was the case with Gogo, that would mean almost one in 5 PAs were a bunt atttempt. Obviously that was a terrible squandering of his power skill.

Agreed on all counts.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

For how much minor league records matter, I would suggest that you have a look at the minor league records of: Scott Stahoviak and Dave McCarty among others'.  Lots of similarities with McCarty.  He was a third overall pick and BA's number 16 overall at some point.   Career .306/.395/.517 in the minors and .242/.305/.371 in the majors.

 

We don't know what Buxton will do.   But he has a fatal flaw right now:  pitch recognition.  And it does not look fixed.  And until it is fixed he will not be a good hitter.  Good possibility he might have another subButerean year at the plate in the majors.

Subbuterean could become a word to use on a regular basis.

 

"The seafood at Seafood Foodie Heaven was subbuterean.

"Yeah, I agree. it wasn't really a hit with me with me either."