Buy Low Trade Target Jay Bruce

[DaveW]

Couple thoughts:

-First, this assumes that the Twins find a buyer in Plouffe, so Sano can move to 3rd base.

-Bruce has had a couple of down years, so the price tag shouldn't be too high. The power is certainly there as he posted 30+ HR each year in 2011,2012 and 2013.(121 OPS+ 2010-2013)

-Pretty solid defense for a corner OF

-Only going to be 29 next season

-Left Handed Bat

-Has a team option for 2017, so if he reverts back to his 2010-2013 ways, he becomes a real nice asset as you can keep him for 2017 as well (or rebuild his trade value at that time if Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Arcia are all producing etc)

-Absolute worst case scenario is he gives you a little better than Hunter production last year at the plate, with much better D.

 

 

Again, the price tag shouldn't be too high, the Reds are in full rebuild mode so one guy from the Twins 12-16 range of prospects along with a couple in the 25-40 range should be enough to get it done.

 

Potential opening day lineup in this scenario (if things break right)

1. Buxton CF

2. Dozier 2B

3. Sano 3B

4. Bruce LF

5. Park DH

6. Rosario RF

7. Mauer 1B

8. Escobar SS

9. Suzuki/Murphy C

 

If Buxton isn't ready, you switch it up a bit with Rosario in CF and Arcia in RF I imagine.

 

 

Thoughts?

[DuluthFan]

Jay Bruce will be paid $12.5 million next year and $13 million next year on his option year ($1 million buyout). I think this Twins team is past one year rentals for outfield postitions.

 

His BA the last two years .217 & .228 with 18 & 26 HRs.

 

Arcia can put up those numbers at his major league minimum salary.

 

[bluechipper]

 

Jay Bruce will be paid $12.5 million next year and $13 million next year on his option year ($1 million buyout). I think this Twins team is past one year rentals for outfield postitions.

 

His BA the last two years .217 & .228 with 18 & 26 HRs.

 

Arcia can put up those numbers at his major league minimum salary.

I agree. Jay Bruce has a career OPS+ of 109 compared to Arcia's 104, and I buy into last year being a fluke for Arcia.

 

I wouldn't hate a trade if it was for a prospect in the 15-20 range, but I think it would cost more than that, so I'd just rather give the playing time to Arcia.

[nicksaviking]

I think the price on Bruce would not be that low. Otherwise the Reds would hold him until July hoping for the same rebound in production.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the price on Bruce would not be that low. Otherwise the Reds would hold him until July hoping for the same rebound in production.

Yeah, with the team option for 2017, the Reds have no real incentive to sell Bruce for whatever they can get right now.  A bounceback season could net a decent return at the deadline or next winter.

[DaveW]

 

I agree. Jay Bruce has a career OPS+ of 109 compared to Arcia's 104, and I buy into last year being a fluke for Arcia.

 

I wouldn't hate a trade if it was for a prospect in the 15-20 range, but I think it would cost more than that, so I'd just rather give the playing time to Arcia.

Bruce is also significantly better defensively then Arcia.

 

It all depends if you think Bruce can rebound or not I suppose, I for one think he can become a 120 OPS+ 30 HR guy again.

[Winston Smith]

Reds going to pick up the cost of his entire contract?

[Thrylos]

He throws left-handed.  Can he pitch? 

[mazeville]

I'd rather give the playing time to Arcia. But I like the thinking behind it. 

 

I still don't quite understand the Twins' thinking in not trading Plouffe. Arcia earned the benefit of the doubt in 2014, and while he struggles in the OF, he can't be any worse than Sano would be. 

 

By trading Plouffe, you'd effectively replace him in the lineup with Arcia, who has a higher career OPS+ (104 v. 99) even though he is younger and has more power potential. Arcia can't be any worse than Sano in the OF would be. So the only thing you lose is Plouffe's 3B defense. But Sano's defense can't be that much worse. And his offense is MUCH better. Also, he's much cheaper.

 

Nothing against Plouffe at all. I just think this is one of those times when you trade that established veteran, get something back for him, and play young guys who need the at-bats. Otherwise, they risk dumping Arcia for pennies on the dollar.

 

And if Arcia doesn't work out, there is always Max Kepler. And if they don't want to do that, corner outfielders almost literally grow on trees.

[drjim]

He actually has a no trade to the Twins. I don't think it's an accident or easy workaround, a LH power guy might hesitate to play in Target Field if he can avoid it.

[dxpavelka]

 

Couple thoughts:

-First, this assumes that the Twins find a buyer in Plouffe, so Sano can move to 3rd base.

-Bruce has had a couple of down years, so the price tag shouldn't be too high. The power is certainly there as he posted 30+ HR each year in 2011,2012 and 2013.(121 OPS+ 2010-2013)

-Pretty solid defense for a corner OF

-Only going to be 29 next season

-Left Handed Bat

-Has a team option for 2017, so if he reverts back to his 2010-2013 ways, he becomes a real nice asset as you can keep him for 2017 as well (or rebuild his trade value at that time if Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Arcia are all producing etc)

-Absolute worst case scenario is he gives you a little better than Hunter production last year at the plate, with much better D.

 

 

Again, the price tag shouldn't be too high, the Reds are in full rebuild mode so one guy from the Twins 12-16 range of prospects along with a couple in the 25-40 range should be enough to get it done.

 

Potential opening day lineup in this scenario (if things break right)

1. Buxton CF

2. Dozier 2B

3. Sano 3B

4. Bruce LF

5. Park DH

6. Rosario RF

7. Mauer 1B

8. Escobar SS

9. Suzuki/Murphy C

 

If Buxton isn't ready, you switch it up a bit with Rosario in CF and Arcia in RF I imagine.

 

 

Thoughts?

Sano strikes out too much to bat 3rd.  In spite of the wishes of many rubes Mauer remains in that spot until they acquire/develop another hitter who actually proves he belongs there.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sano strikes out too much to bat 3rd.

Kris Bryant and Giancarlo Stanton say "hi".

[bluechipper]

 

Sano strikes out too much to bat 3rd.  In spite of the wishes of many rubes Mauer remains in that spot until they acquire/develop another hitter who actually proves he belongs there.

I've never heard the "strikes out to much to bat third" argument before. Is this a thing? Because all I know is Sano can hit, and I would have no problem with slotting him in the three spot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He actually has a no trade to the Twins. I don't think it's an accident or easy workaround, a LH power guy might hesitate to play in Target Field if he can avoid it.

Sure enough:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/details-jay-bruce-no-trade-clause-reds.html

 

"Bruce can block any proposed deal that would send him to the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins, A’s, or Twins."

 

Interesting list.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Sano strikes out too much to bat 3rd.  In spite of the wishes of many rubes Mauer remains in that spot until they acquire/develop another hitter who actually proves he belongs there.

At this stage in his career, Joe is a table setter, not a producer as seen in his team leading .338 OBP (of qualifiers) and he's still the only Twin who is a threat to get on base.  Add in his .400 SLG, his below average strikeout rate and Mauer is the perfect #2 in the current Twins lineup that is full of .310 OBP 

 

Sano is going to K but his XBH potential is so great that it outweighs the cost, plus there is no better hitter in the organization to bat 3rd currently.

[DaveW]

 

Sure enough:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/details-jay-bruce-no-trade-clause-reds.html

 

"Bruce can block any proposed deal that would send him to the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins, A’s, or Twins."

 

Interesting list.

Interesting list indeed.

Well yeah, that probably kills any reasonable discussion then since I imagine he would make the Twins automatically pick up his option if he was traded.

[DaveW]

 

 

I'd rather give the playing time to Arcia. But I like the thinking behind it. 

 

I still don't quite understand the Twins' thinking in not trading Plouffe. Arcia earned the benefit of the doubt in 2014, and while he struggles in the OF, he can't be any worse than Sano would be. 

 

By trading Plouffe, you'd effectively replace him in the lineup with Arcia, who has a higher career OPS+ (104 v. 99) even though he is younger and has more power potential. Arcia can't be any worse than Sano in the OF would be. So the only thing you lose is Plouffe's 3B defense. But Sano's defense can't be that much worse. And his offense is MUCH better. Also, he's much cheaper.

 

Nothing against Plouffe at all. I just think this is one of those times when you trade that established veteran, get something back for him, and play young guys who need the at-bats. Otherwise, they risk dumping Arcia for pennies on the dollar.

 

And if Arcia doesn't work out, there is always Max Kepler. And if they don't want to do that, corner outfielders almost literally grow on trees.

 

This is for a 2016 fix, in this scenario (where you trade Plouffe) and put Sano at 3rd, you currently go into the spring with the current guys battling for the OF:

Rosario (lock to make the opening day roster)

Arcia (I think he can rebound too, but good lord was his 2015 horrendous)

Buxton (Looked overwhelmed his first call up to the majors, its not crazy to think he may not be ready until June or so)

Kepler (Way to early to just expect him to do well in 2016 in the majors)

 

If you trade Plouffe then I think you need to sign someone (nobody that great is left) or trade for someone like Bruce just to give you a "sure thing/known commodity" in the OF, otherwise things could get ugly pretty quickly (i.e. Santana or Nunez starting in the OF) if the youngsters don't immediately contribute.

Again this is with the idea that the Twins would get him without giving up a whole lot.

 

[howieramone2]

If our favorite team makes a big deal it will involve Berrios and/or Polanco. Don't expect the board scapegoats to garner much. Plouffe won't be traded until math and science proves Sano won't put up 20-25 errors.

[dxpavelka]

 

Kris Bryant and Giancarlo Stanton say "hi".

While Bryant is saying hi Anthony Rizzo is batting 3rd and Bryant is in the cleanup spot--a spot where he and Sano should be penciled into for the next 15 years.  Meanwhile, Stanton's looking at 200 walks with Justin Bour tentatively manning the cleanup spot in Miami.

[dxpavelka]

 

I've never heard the "strikes out to much to bat third" argument before. Is this a thing? Because all I know is Sano can hit, and I would have no problem with slotting him in the three spot.

Most manager's will want their best average hitter 3rd and best power hitter 4th.  The lack of one or the other can affect that strategy.

[DaveW]

 

Most manager's will want their best average hitter 3rd and best power hitter 4th.  The lack of one or the other can affect that strategy.

That's a losing strategy.

Your best "average/OBP" guy should be batting 2nd, your best all around hitter (highest OPS) should be batting third.

Sano should be coming up to bat in the 1st inning 100% of games.

[dxpavelka]

 

At this stage in his career, Joe is a table setter, not a producer as seen in his team leading .338 OBP (of qualifiers) and he's still the only Twin who is a threat to get on base.  Add in his .400 SLG, his below average strikeout rate and Mauer is the perfect #2 in the current Twins lineup that is full of .310 OBP 

 

Sano is going to K but his XBH potential is so great that it outweighs the cost, plus there is no better hitter in the organization to bat 3rd currently.

I get that about Joe.  Problem is who IS the producer?  Sano's a guy I want to pencil into the 4 spot and not even think about for the next 15 years.  Hopefully, somebody else (Buxton?) eventually becomes the guy you do the same with in the 3 spot.  That guy is not here yet.

 

[kab21]

I like the idea of buying low on Bruce but I fail to see the point of trading Plouffe off for scraps (the 3B trade market is toast) and sending something valuable for Bruce. 

 

I think at the beginning of the offseason I proposed a Bruce trade and acquiring Bruce would be a better choice than Park (not against the signing) since Bruce plays OF and that would allow Sano to be in some sort of DH/3B/1B rotation.  Now it appears that the Twins are supposedly out of money to add anyone.  Otherwise I would propose a Bruce for Rosario trade.

[dxpavelka]

 

That's a losing strategy.

Your best "average/OBP" guy should be batting 2nd, your best all around hitter (highest OPS) should be batting third.

Sano should be coming up to bat in the 1st inning 100% of games.

And yet teams have been winning with that strategy for a hundred years.

[alhweiner]

If buying low and selling high was easy, EVERYONE would be rich.

I don't think everyone is rich.

That's NOT because the strategy is unknown.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

While Bryant is saying hi Anthony Rizzo is batting 3rd and Bryant is in the cleanup spot--a spot where he and Sano should be penciled into for the next 15 years.

FYI, Bryant batted 3rd more than any other spot last year, including in all 9 Cubs postseason games.  I don't know where the Cubs have him penciled this year, but clearly they didn't mind him batting 3rd last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Meanwhile, Stanton's looking at 200 walks with Justin Bour tentatively manning the cleanup spot in Miami.

Stanton has been batting 3rd for most of the last 3 seasons, in front of the likes of Bour, Baker, Ozuna, Prado, Morse, McGehee, Garrett Jones, and Logan Morrison.  Over that time he's taken 202 walks... in 335 games.  A rate of 98 walks per 162 games.

[DaveW]

 

And yet teams have been winning with that strategy for a hundred years.

And yet the game and strategy changes....

 

#3 hitter will have more plate appearances then a #4 hitter, so why on earth would you not have your most productive hitter period hitting 3rd?

[DaveW]

 

 

If buying low and selling high was easy, EVERYONE would be rich.
I don't think everyone is rich.
That's NOT because the strategy is unknown.

Nobody is saying it's a foolproof plan, but the returns are better than dumpster diving hoping that one of the 1000 candy bar wrappers you find is a "golden ticket"

[DaveW]

 

 

I like the idea of buying low on Bruce but I fail to see the point of trading Plouffe off for scraps (the 3B trade market is toast) and sending something valuable for Bruce. 

 

I think at the beginning of the offseason I proposed a Bruce trade and acquiring Bruce would be a better choice than Park (not against the signing) since Bruce plays OF and that would allow Sano to be in some sort of DH/3B/1B rotation.  Now it appears that the Twins are supposedly out of money to add anyone.  Otherwise I would propose a Bruce for Rosario trade.

Rosario for Bruce? Absolutely not. You shouldn't have to give up a top 10 prospect to get him anyways. The Reds are in complete rebuild mode, it benefits them to trade Bruce ASAP and give the youngsters a shot, I think the Twins could get him for 2-3 C+ type prospects.