Buy Low Trade Target Jay Bruce

[DrNeau]

 

Jay Bruce will be paid $12.5 million next year and $13 million next year on his option year ($1 million buyout). I think this Twins team is past one year rentals for outfield postitions.

 

His BA the last two years .217 & .228 with 18 & 26 HRs.

 

Arcia can put up those numbers at his major league minimum salary.

 

Great comment.

[DaveW]

 

Great comment.

Again, if you read my original post its assuming that Bruce could get back to his earlier numbers. Also, the Twins have Arcia far far far down in the doghouse, if he struggles for a month, would anybody be shocked if they gave his job away to the next Schafer or Danny Santana etc?

[mnfireman]

 

And yet the game and strategy changes....

 

#3 hitter will have more plate appearances then a #4 hitter, so why on earth would you not have your most productive hitter period hitting 3rd?

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

[DrNeau]

I was being serious. I liked your comment and agree. Not being a smart-aleck.  

 

All this talk about overpaying for external talent at the same level of guys we already have is wild and crazy stuff. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

FYI, Bryant batted 3rd more than any other spot last year, including in all 9 Cubs postseason games.  I don't know where the Cubs have him penciled this year, but clearly they didn't mind him batting 3rd last year.

Maddon's lineup looking like, but I'm sure it will change daily 

 

2B Zobrist

CF Heyward

3B Bryant

1B Rizzo

LF Schwarber

RF Soler

C Montero

P Pitcher

SS Russell

[Liquidator]

 

Most manager's will want their best average hitter 3rd and best power hitter 4th.  The lack of one or the other can affect that strategy.

 

Jake Mauer had Adam Brett Walker bat 4th in 2013 and ABW had a strikeout rate of 20%.  That is because he had people like Polanco (pure hitter) in front of him and Kepler (pure hitter) behind him in the order.  

 

Strikeouts are sometimes relative to how pitchers have to pitch you.  Nobody in front or behind you in order, means pitchers can pitch to you any kind of way.  Sano needs to be protected to maximize his skill set.  Batting Sano third behind Buxton or Dozier guarantees more fastballs or stolen bases.  Plouffe or Park batting fourth and Mauer batting fifth (is the perfect lead off or #2 hitter to start the 2nd inning) after a stalled first inning.   To the thread - The line up and roster are fine.  Arcia is Bruce offensively and cheaper than 12 million.  We have enough power in system already and / or adequate defensive replacements.

[dxpavelka]

 

Stanton has been batting 3rd for most of the last 3 seasons, in front of the likes of Bour, Baker, Ozuna, Prado, Morse, McGehee, Garrett Jones, and Logan Morrison.  Over that time he's taken 202 walks... in 335 games.  A rate of 98 walks per 162 games.

Still betting the over.  Don't know a pitcher who would even consider pitching to him in a big situation.

[dxpavelka]

 

And yet the game and strategy changes....

 

#3 hitter will have more plate appearances then a #4 hitter, so why on earth would you not have your most productive hitter period hitting 3rd?

I don't necessarily disagree.  But by the same token, why not 1st or 2nd?  Bobby Bragen & Whitey Herzog are the only mangers to even give that a try.

[dxpavelka]

 

Jake Mauer had Adam Brett Walker bat 4th in 2013 and ABW had a strikeout rate of 20%.  That is because he had people like Polanco (pure hitter) in front of him and Kepler (pure hitter) behind him in the order.  

 

Strikeouts are sometimes relative to how pitchers have to pitch you.  Nobody in front or behind you in order, means pitchers can pitch to you any kind of way.  Sano needs to be protected to maximize his skill set.  Batting Sano third behind Buxton or Dozier guarantees more fastballs or stolen bases.  Plouffe or Park batting fourth and Mauer batting fifth (is the perfect lead off or #2 hitter to start the 2nd inning) after a stalled first inning.   To the thread - The line up and roster are fine.  Arcia is Bruce offensively and cheaper than 12 million.  We have enough power in system already and / or adequate defensive replacements.

Jake had ABW hit 4th because he's more of a power hitter than an average hitter.  Which is exactly why I'd bat Sano 4th instead of 3rd.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Still betting the over.  Don't know a pitcher who would even consider pitching to him in a big situation.

How about all the pitchers that have faced Stanton over the past 3 seasons?  Are these pitchers notably more afraid of Casey McGehee than this Bour kid?  McGehee had 4 HR in 2014, and batted directly behind Stanton for 126 games.

 

Note only 22% of Stanton's plate appearances were in "high leverage" last year.  Pitching around a guy in "big situations" isn't necessarily enough for a high walk total.

 

And it's not all up to the pitcher either, Stanton might be aggressive enough (or effectively aggressive enough) to neutralize a lot of the benefits of pitching around him.  I don't really know much about him specifically, but I do know he's batted third plenty without the effects that you describe.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And yet the game and strategy changes....

 

#3 hitter will have more plate appearances then a #4 hitter, so why on earth would you not have your most productive hitter period hitting 3rd?

 

the numbers I've read indicate it is because he's more often going to come up with the bases empty in the first inning if he hits third.......but I have not read an article on this for several years, so I can't recall all the details of the argument.

 

I think it is a TINY advantage though.....because, as you say, he will come up less times.

[zenser]

 

And it's not all up to the pitcher either, Stanton might be aggressive enough (or effectively aggressive enough) to neutralize a lot of the benefits of pitching around him.  I don't really know much about him specifically, but I do know he's batted third plenty without the effects that you describe.

 

This reminds me of Vlad back in the day.  I don't have the data but I swear every night on Baseball Tonight he was hitting a ball that was almost in the dirt or 6 inches outside 430 ft.

 

[CampQ]

This reminds me of Vlad back in the day. I don't have the data but I swear every night on Baseball Tonight he was hitting a ball that was almost in the dirt or 6 inches outside 430 ft.

Which reminds me of this eddie rosario homer, which, when I saw it, reminded me of Vlad:

 

[Shaitan]

Other than Chapman, the Reds seem to be asking for high returns on their veterans. Or at least that's my assumption, given that none have actually been moved despite the rumors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Other than Chapman, the Reds seem to be asking for high returns on their veterans. Or at least that's my assumption, given that none have actually been moved despite the rumors.

You forgot Frazier.

 

I think their remaining veterans might have a demand problem themselves, rather than a problem with the Reds demands.

[nicksaviking]

You forgot Frazier.

I think their remaining veterans might have a demand problem themselves, rather than a problem with the Reds demands.

I was surprised the Reds didn't get more for Frazier. As Phillips and Bruce are currently at their nadir, they probably assume they have little to lose seeing if they'll have more value in July.

[Shaitan]

When you're right, you're right.

[Mike Sixel]

Buy low means 33/34 year old OF that haven't played in 18 months, not guys you have to pay for.......you needed to set your sights much, much lower on price, apparently.