Baseball Prospectus Top 100 Prospects

[gopherman23]

#2 Byron Buxton

#17 Jose Berrios

#60 Max Kepler

#62 Nick Gordon

 

Pretty surprised Jay didn't make the list.

 

http://www.turnerpublishing.com/files/uploads/BP-101Prospects.pdf (PDF File)

[gunnarthor]

Thanks for the link.  BP was usually the high man on the Twins when Jason Parks (IIRC) was their main guy but he got hired by the Cubs (IIRC).  

 

 

Players on it last year but not this year are #12 Sano (graduated), #14 Meyer, #28 Stewart, #91 Thorpe, #99 Burdi.  Thorpe was injured, obviously.  The other had disappointing seasons.  I agree that I thought Jay would be on the list.  They also don't list Park but I'm not sure if they list Korean players or not.  

 

[Mike Sixel]

That is quite the fall for Stewart! Wow. (Meyer too, but I'm not as surprised by that one).

 

Really, think about that. BPRO thought they had 2 number 1/2 types, and now neither is even thought of as a number 2/3 type, and maybe not even a starter (for Meyer). Wow.

[gunnarthor]

 

That is quite the fall for Stewart! Wow. (Meyer too, but I'm not as surprised by that one).

 

Really, think about that. BPRO thought they had 2 number 1/2 types, and now neither is even thought of as a number 2/3 type, and maybe not even a starter (for Meyer). Wow.

Yep, that's the prospect game.  On the plus side, Kepler and Berrios both made huge strides.   (And, as I mentioned, the list this year is being done by different prospect gurus who might not have had the same opinion as Parks did last year, anyway).  

[nicksaviking]

I'm not surprised by Stewart. What I am surprised is that Kepler isn't in the top 50. With all the steam he had last year, I would have expected him to be top 30.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm guessing with Kepler they want to see another year, though another year like that and he will be in MN...  I'm sure that has something to do with it.  No one doubts the tools, but up until last year, he didn't exactly get the results.

[Mike Sixel]

Heh....number 60 in the whole world of prospects is still pretty darn high. I think people forget just how high even 100 or 200 is.

[Dman]

 

#2 Byron Buxton
#17 Jose Berrios
#60 Max Kepler
#62 Nick Gordon

Pretty surprised Jay didn't make the list.

http://www.turnerpublishing.com/files/uploads/BP-101Prospects.pdf (PDF File)

 

Yeah I think he messed up not putting Jay in there.  He has Dillon at around 50 and there was talk of Jay going ahead of him in the Draft.  Also most scouts rated Jays pitches higher.  Only reason I can think of that he didn't put him in is he doesn't believe Jay is a starter but a reliever.  Seems a bit odd though since Dillon was a converted reliever last year.

 

Most scouts were pretty high on Jay last year so i guess that makes me question this guy's ratings.

[alhweiner]

Prospect ratings are nearly meaningless.

Try t find Matt Duffy of the Giants on ANY Prospect Rating...

[old nurse]

The rare late round, speed through the minors player will get missed by the ranking people. 

 

Prospect rankings gives some people something to talk about. It is an opinion. For that reason it has meaning. Not being ranked does not mean you are not a good player just as being ranked does not mean you will be a good player. at the major league level. Are they accurate in which player will have the best career? No. But that is not the point of these things

[Mike Sixel]

 

Prospect ratings are nearly meaningless.
Try t find Matt Duffy of the Giants on ANY Prospect Rating...

 

Serious logical fallacy here.......

[Nick Nelson]

What excites me is seeing Gordon so high on this list, even after posting a sub-700 OPS at Cedar Rapids. This tells me is that people are buying into his second half rebound, and that there's a lot of belief in his ability to become a quality defensive MLB shortstop. 

[nicksaviking]

Yeah I think he messed up not putting Jay in there.  He has Dillon at around 50 and there was talk of Jay going ahead of him in the Draft.  Also most scouts rated Jays pitches higher.  Only reason I can think of that he didn't put him in is he doesn't believe Jay is a starter but a reliever.  Seems a bit odd though since Dillon was a converted reliever last year.

 

Most scouts were pretty high on Jay last year so i guess that makes me question this guy's ratings.

Tate was nearly everyone's top pitcher. Plenty of people were ranking Aiken, Allard and Fulmer over Jay. We saw lots of projections with Jay being the #2 pitcher taken but that was mostly because everyone knew the Twins were interested and simply projected him there.

[alhweiner]

 

Serious logical fallacy here.......

Yeah, I overstated my objections to Prospect rankings.

Let me back up to just say that there are many non-prospect success stories.

I am a fan, but not necessarily a true believer.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, I overstated my objections to Prospect rankings.

Let me back up to just say that there are many non-prospect success stories.

I am a fan, but not necessarily a true believer.

 

Fair.

 

Also fair, realizing that they are trying to predict the future talent/success of 16-25 year olds, across dozens of minor league teams, for thousands of humans......

[Dman]

 

Tate was nearly everyone's top pitcher. Plenty of people were ranking Aiken, Allard and Fulmer over Jay. We saw lots of projections with Jay being the #2 pitcher taken but that was mostly because everyone knew the Twins were interested and simply projected him there.

 

Yeah Tate was there but there were rumors that unless the right guy fell that Colorado was gonna pick Jay third. http://www.hngn.com/articles/97976/20150603/mlb-draft-2015-tyler-jay-going-third-overall-to-colorado-rockies-much-uncertainty-among-top-picks.htm

 

Allard and Aiken had injuries to sort out and it played out that they fell further down because of that.  Fulmer was a tough call because of size and the high effort delivery.  Personally I liked him better than Jay, but Jay is a lefty so I can understand why the Twins went the way they did.

 

I'm just sayin that lots of scouts liked Jays stuff.  He has a four pitch mix and decent control.  He is already the number 3 on MLB top 30 prospects for the Twins.  Given the Justification for some of this guys top 100 picks I personally think Jay slots in ahead of some of them.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah Tate was there but there were rumors that unless the right guy fell that Colorado was gonna pick Jay third. http://www.hngn.com/articles/97976/20150603/mlb-draft-2015-tyler-jay-going-third-overall-to-colorado-rockies-much-uncertainty-among-top-picks.htm

Please don't sully the Twins decision by suggesting the Rockies may have made a similar decision.

[mikelink45]

I always find this interesting, but I lack the ability to see these players so I cannot question the lists.  I am pleased that the Twins have four on it considering that Sano and Duffey and Rosario made it to the majors last year.  There is always the unrated player that has the motivation to move forward and hopefully we have a lot of players in the next 100.

 

I do not see why people are concerned about Jay's absence.  The minor league stats I pulled up showed only 19 inning.  Too few to give him a rating.  We watched Burdi fly up to the list and then plunge off.  This is the minor leagues and that happens.

 

What is the percentage of top 100 players that makes a big league career of over 6 years?  How many of them star?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I do not see why people are concerned about Jay's absence.  The minor league stats I pulled up showed only 19 inning.  Too few to give him a rating.

That's not really how it works, though.  Top draftees generally get slotted, and fairly high, even if they don't have much experience.  Kohl Stewart was BP's #54 after 20 innings in rookie ball.  Nick Gordon #70 after 57 games in rookie ball.  Both guys were even higher on other lists, and MLB.com currently has Tyler Jay at #60.

 

The top 5 picks from the 2015 draft are all ranked by BP, but not Jay at #6.  Perhaps BP thinks it was a weak class and/or pessimism about Jay specifically?