Oswaldo Arcia

[nicksaviking]

 

Can you name another mid-market team that has done a complete rebuild in less than 4 years? Also, it is not important for pitchers to learn the job on the MLB level. It's important that they come up MLB ready. The Show is not a finishing school.

 

I'm not sure what your comment about a 4 year rebuild is about, I wasn't giving the Twins a time frame, I was asking them to commit to the young players. The young guys shouldn't have been getting seasoned in the minors in favor of vets that would not be part of the future when the team was a complete train wreck prior to last year, the MLB IS a finishing school. Anyone who thinks rookies are going to come up as a finished product must only have watched Albert Pujols. Expecting that from these guys is insane.

[bluechipper]

 

I beg to differ on Buxton. I suspect Sweeney gets first crack while Buxton starts in AAA. 

I hope you're wrong on that. It's not like service time is going to play any factor for Buxton this year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Plus Sano is much more athletic than Arcia. I think Arcia is pretty much always going to be below average in the field. Sano, he has a chance to be above average.

Arcia certainly is below average and looks clumsy, and Sano is athletic, but I have a hard time believing Sano will be a *better* defensive outfielder than Arcia. Did we not see in 2014 that learning to play outfield is more than shagging fly balls during BP?

 

Arcia (all while looking clumsy) has a strong, reasonably accurate arm, makes plays to his glove side, backs up bases, etc., he also makes the occasional out-of-range play. I have no confidence whatsoever that Sano will do any of that consistently. I don't think Sano's 100-150 OPS advantage over Arcia would compensate for any of Sano's future crimes in the outfield, though I admit Danny Santana improved quite a bit over the course of 2014.

 

However, an .825-.875 OPS from a near full-time Arcia would be pretty good to have, with or without Sano.

 

And I do grant you that Sano is long term more important to this franchise than Arcia, and the temporary outfield experiment worked with Miguel Cabrera just fine. My understanding is that Sano in the outfield is temporary until Plouffe is on another team. Part of my angst with Sano in the OF all goes back to general roster construction, too.

[Linus]

My greatest concern with Sano in the outfield is that he should be at 3rd base. Given time I think he will be clearly better than Arcia in the outfield but then he shifts positions. Seems like a waste. In general I hope we avoid having either one in the outfield long term.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Playing to the park and copying Toronto.

[ThejacKmp]

 

On another thought, does it seem the 13 position players are pretty much settles going into spring training?

Murphy, Suzuki
Mauer, Park, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Nunez, Santana
Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Arcia

I have thought they should add a veteran OF, but not sure who I would want him to replace, assuming none of the tendered guys are going anywhere

 

I don't think that Nunez is a lock but this seems okay otherwise. Polanco could replace Nunez? 

 

They may add a veteran OF but with Santana able to play CF, you don't really need to. I'd much rather see Vargas, though that leaves them with three 1B/DH types. Would love that switch hitting power off the bench.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I can't see Sano being an everyday player in the OF, I know on fantasy squads it would be a great thing.  But right now by the looks of it Arcia or Kepler should be the best option behind Buxton and Rosario

 

Just my opinion.

 

Mauer, Sano, Park, and Vargas are all competing for two spots?

 

Absolutely incorrect. I think they'll try Sano in the OF to start the season. The market for Plouffe is not strong and with giving guys a day off, you're really only talking about putting Sano out there 4 days a week.

 

I for one am excited about this log jam. Yeah it would be nice if we could flip Plouffe for something nice but that isn't happening now (more likely during season when teams have holes they can't fill) and it adds some nice injury/effectiveness certainty. If Mauer/Park/Sano/Plouffe isn't available, the Twins will still be very strong at DH/3B/1B and can sub in any number of fun young outfielders (Arcia, eventually Kepler, maybe even ABW). No team makes it through the season without injuries so it will be nice to see the Twins able to not miss a beat in case of some time off.

[tobi0040]

 

However, an .825-.875 OPS from a near full-time Arcia would be pretty good to have, with or without Sano.

 

If Arcia hits anywhere near .825 to .875   he will be a MLB player for a long period of time, whether that is here or someplace else.

 

With a pretty low qualifer of 150 PA, .875 would have been 23rd in MLB and .825 would have been 63rd in MLB last year.  To reach these levels he would need to drastically improve against lefties (career just over .600). 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I agree that Arcia has to do something this spring, but I really doubt they will just let him go unless he's dreadful this spring. He might get tendinitis somewhere some other type of injury, but I can't see the club just letting him go.

Agreed, especially because they can keep him a 4th OF so easily since they have Santana to play CF if Rosario and Buxton are unavailable - Arcia won't be beat out for 4th OF because he can't play CF. Only OFs at beginning of season are Sano, Rosario and Buxton. Arcia easily settles in as the 4th OF with Santana as the 5th. He will be pretty safe until June, when Maximus could be forcing his way onto the scene.

 

As 4th OF, he can get 3-4 starts a week as the Twins rest guys. And if he ends up a 5th OF bench bat, that's a nice tool to have.

[h2oface]

Arcia (25 in May) did quite fine until the extended stay with the Twins, and then still hit 20 homers in 2014 while his average suffered. Vargas (26 in August)  hit well in 2014 , too. In 2015, Arcia hit .276 before he was cast off to AAA. That .276 looks pretty good when stacked against the whole rest of the team's performances in 2015, eh? But then Arcia tanked AAA. I really feel that Arcia and Vargas will star elsewhere, but the Twins staff just are not "Phil Jackson" enough to get the best out of the boys from Venezuela and Puerto Rico. They don't know what to do. I fear they will go elsewhere for little return and the FO has once more hoarded redundant assets until their value is several times lower than it once was.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If Arcia hits anywhere near .825 to .875   he will be a MLB player for a long period of time, whether that is here or someplace else.

 

With a pretty low qualifer of 150 PA, .875 would have been 23rd in MLB and .825 would have been 63rd in MLB last year.  To reach these levels he would need to drastically improve against lefties (career just over .600).

 

I was excluding lefties. His OPS versus righties in 2014 was .848 (in 268 PA).

 

It was too generous to call his possible platooning "near full time" however, as I'd guess only about 60-75% of MLB starting pitching is right handed at any given time.

[tobi0040]

 

Arcia (25 in May) did quite fine until the extended stay with the Twins, and then still hit 20 homers in 2014 while his average suffered. Vargas (26 in August)  hit well in 2014 , too. In 2015, Arcia hit .276 before he was cast off to AAA. That .276 looks pretty good when stacked against the whole rest of the team's performances in 2015, eh? But then Arcia tanked AAA. I really feel that Arcia and Vargas will star elsewhere, but the Twins staff just are not "Phil Jackson" enough to get the best out of the boys from Venezuela and Puerto Rico. They don't know what to do. I fear they will go elsewhere for little return and the FO has once more hoarded redundant assets until their value is several times lower than it once was.

 

I will say this.  If a few guys do go off and star someplace else in the next five years, I really won't blame the Twins.  I say this as someone who critiques the Twins a fair amount.  I think this came down to numbers more than anything else.

 

From 2013 to 2016, we will have the following OF come up or get squeezed out.  Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Kepler, Walker, Arcia, and Hicks.  That is a lot of talent from 21-25 or so that all need or will need reps to figure out if they are legit or not.  And we got 3.9 WAR  out of Danny Santana one year to boot.

 

Looking back a few years from now the Twins likely did two things they could have done differently.  Sign Torii Hunter and move Sano to the OF.  I was irate about the Hunter signing but it is hard to look back right now and say that was a bad move.  And we don't know how Sano will end up or if it will even happen (potentially posturing to move Plouffe).  We also don't know what the offers have been for Plouffe.

 

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

I was excluding lefties. His OPS versus righties in 2014 was .848 (in 268 PA).

It was too generous to call his possible platooning "near full time" however, as I'd guess only about 60-75% of MLB starting pitching is right handed at any given time.

 

Gotcha.  We are back on the same page then!

[howieramone2]

 

I'm not sure what your comment about a 4 year rebuild is about, I wasn't giving the Twins a time frame, I was asking them to commit to the young players. The young guys shouldn't have been getting seasoned in the minors in favor of vets that would not be part of the future when the team was a complete train wreck prior to last year, the MLB IS a finishing school. Anyone who thinks rookies are going to come up as a finished product must only have watched Albert Pujols. Expecting that from these guys is insane.

Maybe you could explain, not being committed to the rebuild when it was completed in near record time. Our favorite team is now committed to dethroning the Royals, not getting younger. If you want to watch a youth movement, you're watching the wrong team. Our young prospects will be filtered in when they are MLB ready and a spot is available. MLB IS NOT a finishing school for contending teams.

[Twodogs]

 

Absolutely incorrect. I think they'll try Sano in the OF to start the season. The market for Plouffe is not strong and with giving guys a day off, you're really only talking about putting Sano out there 4 days a week.

 

I for one am excited about this log jam. Yeah it would be nice if we could flip Plouffe for something nice but that isn't happening now (more likely during season when teams have holes they can't fill) and it adds some nice injury/effectiveness certainty. If Mauer/Park/Sano/Plouffe isn't available, the Twins will still be very strong at DH/3B/1B and can sub in any number of fun young outfielders (Arcia, eventually Kepler, maybe even ABW). No team makes it through the season without injuries so it will be nice to see the Twins able to not miss a beat in case of some time off.

I just dont see Sano doing very well in the OF and as a result his struggles in the OF can and may affect his results at the plate.  Arcia is not a very good outfielder but at least he is an outfielder?

[nicksaviking]

 

Maybe you could explain, not being committed to the rebuild when it was completed in near record time. Our favorite team is now committed to dethroning the Royals, not getting younger. If you want to watch a youth movement, you're watching the wrong team. Our young prospects will be filtered in when they are MLB ready and a spot is available. MLB IS NOT a finishing school for contending teams.

 

The Twins didn't do a rebuild, they did a little of this, a little of that. They never scrapped the vets and handed the show to the kids. They did it in the early 80's, they did it early this century, but they didn't do it this time.

 

If you don't think rebuilds are something contending teams should do and teams that want to contend shouldn't let their young players come up and learn how to play at the MLB level, you probably shouldn't use the Royals as a comparable.

 

And yes, I want to to watch a youth movement, the team has shown before that that is a recipe for success, as have many other clubs.

[howieramone2]

 

The Twins didn't do a rebuild, they did a little of this, a little of that. They never scrapped the vets and handed the show to the kids. They did it in the early 80's, they did it early this century, but they didn't do it this time.

 

If you don't think rebuilds are something contending teams should do and teams that want to contend shouldn't let their young players come up and learn how to play at the MLB level, you probably shouldn't use the Royals as a comparable.

There is not only one way to do a rebuild. The Twins did not do a teardown, because they had few vets anyone wanted and the young players were not ready. They were stuck using placeholders, while the board screamed to spend on free agents. TR did a little of this, and a little of that, and magically we became a contender faster than any mid-market team I am aware of.

[kab21]

 

It is possible that I am reading too much into these two signings. But I would be completely shocked if the Twins devoted the 4th OF to someone that is a liability defensively in LR or RF and cannot play CF.  It appears this is an obvious move to you and I, given the rest of the roster.  But it won't happen.

Except that the Twins already have a 4th OF'er that isn't a liability defensively.  Danny Santana completely changes the composition of the bench.

[Squirrel]

 

There is not only one way to do a rebuild. The Twins did not do a teardown, because they had few vets anyone wanted and the young players were not ready. They were stuck using placeholders, while the board screamed to spend on free agents. TR did a little of this, and a little of that, and magically we became a contender faster than any mid-market team I am aware of.

Let's get back on topic.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Maybe you could explain, not being committed to the rebuild when it was completed in near record time. Our favorite team is now committed to dethroning the Royals, not getting younger. If you want to watch a youth movement, you're watching the wrong team. Our young prospects will be filtered in when they are MLB ready and a spot is available. 

 

Except, clearly, as was the case with Buxton.  Or Hicks.  Or, hell, maybe even Arcia.  Or the case for many, many, many other players for the Twins and many other teams.  

 

Teams call players up all the time who refine their game against big leaguers.  You sort of have to, there is no lineup in AAA that prepares you for the Blue Jays.  There is no pitching staff that prepares you for Cardinals.  

 

Arcia had a strikeout problem and he needs to adjust to that against major league pitching, all nick is saying is that we should have been giving a talent like Arcia as many at-bats as is humanly possible to see if he can translate his minor league success to the majors.  And we still should be.

[Thrylos]

 

 you're really only talking about putting Sano out there 4 days a week.

 

If Molitor is not playing his best player every single game, he should go the way of Gardy.

 

Sano should play every day unless he is hurt or needs a break.

[tobi0040]

 

Except that the Twins already have a 4th OF'er that isn't a liability defensively.  Danny Santana completely changes the composition of the bench.

 

I don't think the Twins will count on one player backing up both SS and CF.  They should, but they won't.

[kab21]

 

If Molitor is not playing his best player every single game, he should go the way of Gardy.

 

Sano should play every day unless he is hurt or needs a break.

If Sano DH's (or plays 3B) 2x/wk I think that still counts as playing everyday.  There is no doubt that Sano is going to play everyday but it might not be in the OF every day.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If Molitor is not playing his best player every single game, he should go the way of Gardy.

 

Sano should play every day unless he is hurt or needs a break.

 

Out there means Sano in the Outfield. Other days he can play 1B, 3B and DH as Mauer/Plouffe/Park get days off. I thought it was a given that Sano would play every day but I guess not.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I just dont see Sano doing very well in the OF and as a result his struggles in the OF can and may affect his results at the plate.  Arcia is not a very good outfielder but at least he is an outfielder?

 

Sano is a professional hitter, I can't imagine any struggles in the OF will affect his results at the plate. The issue usually goes the other way around - bad hitting can lead to inattentive defense. In fact, I can't remember a player whose poor defense was cited as a reason for struggling offense. Even Knoblauch continued to hit well as he was unable to throw the ball to first base.

 

The only decent arguments I've heard for keeping Sano out of the OF (assuming you keep Plouffe and only until Kepler comes up) deal with worries about his effectiveness and about him getting injured. 

 

The injured bit is patently false since third base is the position which has the most DL stints while LFers and RFers are the least likely to hit the DL. Obviously if Sano DHs he'd be less likely to get hurt but other than that, the OF is actually the best place to stash him injury wise.*

 

http://makenolittleplans.net/age-position-and-injury-risk-in-baseball/

 

As far as effectiveness goes, it would be one thing if the Twins were keeping Hicks or Kepler out of the outfield - the drop off there would be enormous. But at least until midseason, it seems the guy who is most effected is Arcia. And let's be honest, the difference between Sano and Arcia is likely to be minimal. Yeah Sano hasn't played the OF but at least his athleticism gives us some hope of upside. Arcia is a disaster in the outfield.**

 

Sano in the OF is worth a shot, especially since he only needs to be out there 3-4 times a week and its likely to be a temporary thing, as injury/trade/Kepler will almost certainly move him out of the OF by the time the season winds down. In the meantime, we keep our options open with little to no drop off in defense compared to Mr. Arcia.

 

------

 

* There are some obvious flaws in this argument but I still think it holds water at the end of the day. I imagine that 1B and 3B tend to get injured more because they tend to be older and less mobile than OFs. In other words, if you switched your corner outfielders and corner infielders across the league, you'd see more corner OF injuries than corner IF injuries. That said, third base and first base are by no means impact free positions, requiring players to stretch uncomfortably and dive for ground balls. Assuming that Sano is instructed not to lay out too much in the OF (hard to see him doing this) and the Twins take the time to teach him the walls in various parks, he should be fine.

 

** If Arcia comes out like gangbusters this spring and early season, this changes everything of course. The whole gain of Sano to the OF is gaining Plouffe's bat over Arcia's (and any defensive value from Plouffe/Sano over Sano/Arcia in the field). But at that point, Plouffe may be more tradable or somebody may be banged up.

[Thrylos]

 

Out there means Sano in the Outfield.

 

Really, I will believe that when/if I see it...

[ThejacKmp]

 

Really, I will believe that when/if I see it...

 

You won't have to wait long, just another 4-6 weeks! As long as Plouffe isn't traded (and there doesn't seem to be a market and likely wouldn't be until end of spring training if some contending team has significant injuries at 3B) you're going to see a bunch of Sano in the outfield. I for one am excited to see it - if it's a trainwreck it'll be entertaining and if he's surprisingly nimble it will just add to the Legend of Sano.

[Twodogs]

 

Sano is a professional hitter, I can't imagine any struggles in the OF will affect his results at the plate. The issue usually goes the other way around - bad hitting can lead to inattentive defense. In fact, I can't remember a player whose poor defense was cited as a reason for struggling offense. Even Knoblauch continued to hit well as he was unable to throw the ball to first base.

 

The only decent arguments I've heard for keeping Sano out of the OF (assuming you keep Plouffe and only until Kepler comes up) deal with worries about his effectiveness and about him getting injured. 

 

The injured bit is patently false since third base is the position which has the most DL stints while LFers and RFers are the least likely to hit the DL. Obviously if Sano DHs he'd be less likely to get hurt but other than that, the OF is actually the best place to stash him injury wise.*

 

http://makenolittleplans.net/age-position-and-injury-risk-in-baseball/

 

As far as effectiveness goes, it would be one thing if the Twins were keeping Hicks or Kepler out of the outfield - the drop off there would be enormous. But at least until midseason, it seems the guy who is most effected is Arcia. And let's be honest, the difference between Sano and Arcia is likely to be minimal. Yeah Sano hasn't played the OF but at least his athleticism gives us some hope of upside. Arcia is a disaster in the outfield.**

 

Sano in the OF is worth a shot, especially since he only needs to be out there 3-4 times a week and its likely to be a temporary thing, as injury/trade/Kepler will almost certainly move him out of the OF by the time the season winds down. In the meantime, we keep our options open with little to no drop off in defense compared to Mr. Arcia.

 

------

 

* There are some obvious flaws in this argument but I still think it holds water at the end of the day. I imagine that 1B and 3B tend to get injured more because they tend to be older and less mobile than OFs. In other words, if you switched your corner outfielders and corner infielders across the league, you'd see more corner OF injuries than corner IF injuries. That said, third base and first base are by no means impact free positions, requiring players to stretch uncomfortably and dive for ground balls. Assuming that Sano is instructed not to lay out too much in the OF (hard to see him doing this) and the Twins take the time to teach him the walls in various parks, he should be fine.

 

** If Arcia comes out like gangbusters this spring and early season, this changes everything of course. The whole gain of Sano to the OF is gaining Plouffe's bat over Arcia's (and any defensive value from Plouffe/Sano over Sano/Arcia in the field). But at that point, Plouffe may be more tradable or somebody may be banged up.

A professional hitter??  He is like 22 years old and he is going to have the whole game flipped upside down so that they can keep Plouffe, Park and Mauer all in the lineup all at the same time, none of which are gold glove fielders by any stretch.  How many 22 year olds do you know and how secure with themselves are they.  Now take that 22 year old and put him in a foreign country and make him take a job he has never done before or is not comfortable doing it and your telling me that nothing can go wrong??  I hope you are right.  But needless to say, I am not stretching out too far by being very skeptical of this whole thing. 

[Bob Sacamento]

Pitchers and catchers officially report in 45 days and many of the positional players start to show up too! First full team workout in 51 days I can tell you one thing I'll be watching and trying to tape is the experiment of Sano in the OF!

[tobi0040]

 

You won't have to wait long, just another 4-6 weeks! As long as Plouffe isn't traded (and there doesn't seem to be a market and likely wouldn't be until end of spring training if some contending team has significant injuries at 3B) you're going to see a bunch of Sano in the outfield. I for one am excited to see it - if it's a trainwreck it'll be entertaining and if he's surprisingly nimble it will just add to the Legend of Sano.

 

I don't think we will see it either.  To think the market for Plouffe is low right now or we don't have leverage, just wait if Sano flops in the outfield come about April 20th.

 

If Sano to the OF is really the plan, the Twins get an F for this one.  Plouffe has been in our system for a decade and a pretty productive 3B for 2.5 years now.  We could have seen this one coming and at a bare minimum, gotten Sano at least somewhat comfortable in the OF in the minors.