Mike Leake Signs

[TwinsTerritory]

So reports say the Cardinals have signed Leake for 5 yrs/$80M (and an option for year 6).  That got me to wondering what Kyle Gibson would be worth in a trade.  He hasn't been doing it at the major league level as long as Leake, but they've been very similar pitchers the past two years.  I know everyone wants to trade Milone (and Nolasco), but maybe the Twins should be looking to see what kind of value Gibson has.  Or, more likely, maybe we should all appreciate him a little bit more and realize how valuable 4 more years of control are to the Twins.

[dxpavelka]

If he has value, let him do so for us.  Everyone likes to talk about trading some of our excess starting pitching, how about we develop some of that glut into "good" starting pitching.  We haven't had a starting pitcher make the All-Star team since Johan Santana left.  Kind of hard to view it as a position of strength.

[ashbury]

Or, more likely, maybe we should all appreciate him a little bit more and realize how valuable 4 more years of control are to the Twins.

That's my view. Trading the guy who has the most trade value, among several candidates currently on hand, means losing talent you want for your own pennant run, unless you are convinced your own scouting and talent evaluation is greatly superior to the other team's. And even if your talent evaluation is that good, just pick the guy you think is worst and then take whatever is the best you can negotiate in return for him - maybe a dumber GM will value him more. Of course trading involves more than just talent, for instance clearing budget room and so forth. But "we could get the most if we trade this guy" is IMO coming at things backwards. It's how we traded away Matt Garza, who at the time I thought was the last of the group of pitchers we should be sending away, and that's not even second guessing the result of the trade for the actual talent gotten in return. Just trade away either Slowey or Blackburn - who would have brought back little in return, and justly so.

[gunnarthor]

Wow, that's a lot more $ than I thought he'd get.  Good for him. 

[Otwins]

I have had this same thought. But my feeling was is that it depends what you could get for him. The rotation would not be that much different if you moved May into Gibson's slot. Let Milone and Nolasco fight for the 5th spot and if both bomb promote Berrios after a month. The reds are trading for controllable players but I think they even want younger than Gibson. Not sure where the best fit would be.  I would listen but be in no hurry.

[Thrylos]

Not Gibson.  If Ryan had any sense right now, he should be out trading Santana.  His 3/$40M contract might look good to some teams.

 

Milone might actually have some value as well...

[Monkeypaws]

If they have value, they must be decent ballplayers. Maybe we should keep them.

[h2oface]

 

Not Gibson.  If Ryan had any sense right now, he should be out trading Santana.  His 3/$40M contract might look good to some teams.

 

Milone might actually have some value as well...

 

Trade Santana before his UCL finally tears all the way..... do it now before you can't. 

[Thrylos]

 

If they have value, they must be decent ballplayers. Maybe we should keep them.

 

Sure.  Let's hoard a whole bunch of back of the rotation guys and keep them until they have no value, instead of trying to find a couple front of the rotation pitchers. 

 

Quantity always wins over quality.  The more the merrier...

[Monkeypaws]

 

Sure.  Let's hoard a whole bunch of back of the rotation guys and keep them until they have no value, instead of trying to find a couple front of the rotation pitchers. 

 

Quantity always wins over quality.  The more the merrier...

 

How are you going to acquire said front end pitchers?

 

Certainly not by trading a bunch of "back of the rotation guys."

[old nurse]

 

How are you going to acquire said front end pitchers?

 

Certainly not by trading a bunch of "back of the rotation guys."

It works in fantasy leagues

[brvama]

It works in fantasy leagues

I think you've just explained the rationale for so many of these trade proposals on here. I guess if I'm have any chance of becoming a GM I better sign up for a fantasy league.

[HitInAPinch]

Gibson is 28.  While he has improved in his 3 years with the Twins, it's nothing spectacular: you're classic #3 starter.  Those kind of guys have value to other teams. 

 

I don't understand trading E. Santana at all.  He's the Twins #1 started right now.  If even remotely possible, I've got a long list of other Twins pitchers I'd trade before Ervin.

[beckmt]

If you intend to compete this year, you need starting pitching depth.  (most of us do expect Twins to compete). Twins have 7, which is just about what you need for the year.  (Not counting May).  Mike Leake is your classic #3 starter, the numbers the Twins have their pitchers at looks good compared to what he is being paid. 

If you are not in the top 10 of money income, draft and develop is the way you have to go.  When your door opens you may have to pay for a #1(if available), but handle it at that time.  Twins are not there yet and will probably need to take that step in 2017 or 2018.

Also by that time your #1 draft pick should be in the 20's, so if you have to lose it, it will not be as big a hit and in the 10 - 20 range.

[DaveW]

How are you going to acquire said front end pitchers?

 

Certainly not by trading a bunch of "back of the rotation guys."

You take guys like Gibson or Santana (who are solid and affordable number 3's) and flip them for a couple prospects who have front end of the rotation stuff, but aren't "sure things"

 

Remember, liriano was a toss in in a trade, you just gotta get enough lottery ticket type "ace" potentials and one of them will pan out.

[The Wise One]

 

You take guys like Gibson or Santana (who are solid and affordable number 3's) and flip them for a couple prospects who have front end of the rotation stuff, but aren't "sure things"

Remember, liriano was a toss in in a trade, you just gotta get enough lottery ticket type "ace" potentials and one of them will pan out.

Liriano was 13 years ago.  Perhaps GMs are a little smarter now.  High reward throw ins are not very commonThere hasn't been a Santana or Mitch Williams in Rule V for  even longer ago  than Liriano. Gems are very unlikely found in the scrap heap.

[biggentleben]

Liriano was 13 years ago. Perhaps GMs are a little smarter now. High reward throw ins are not very commonThere hasn't been a Santana or Mitch Williams in Rule V for even longer ago than Liriano. Gems are very unlikely found in the scrap heap.

DeShields got ROY votes just last season as a rule 5 guy. The Twins got a big time lottery ticket just last year in JR Graham, who has frontline starter stuff when healthy, but just couldn't stay healthy.

 

On the lottery tickets in trades, that's pretty much bunk as well. Zachary Bird was a throw in last summer in a trade and fits a Liriano pre-trade mold very well. Heck, Fangraphs ranked the "second" pitcher acquired for the mighty Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson, John Gant, as the #3 prospect in arguably the best system in the game before a rewrite of their list. Gant wasn't on any radars at all coming into 2015, and he's now discussed with a ceiling of a #2 starter. It's all a matter of scouting other systems and developing them once they're in your system.

[The Wise One]

JR Graham has a ways to go before one would one could even approach the significance to a team comparable to Williams.  DeShields got one point in the voting total for ROY.  He is also a long way from All Star, fwar 1.3, OPS+ of 95, he has a ways to go to bee seen as average.  Remember this was about finding ACES as lottery ticket transactions, not above average or fill in players

[biggentleben]

JR Graham has a ways to go before one would one could even approach the significance to a team comparable to Williams. DeShields got one point in the voting total for ROY. He is also a long way from All Star, fwar 1.3, OPS+ of 95, he has a ways to go to bee seen as average. Remember this was about finding ACES as lottery ticket transactions, not above average or fill in players

And Johan was not an ace in his rule 5 season either, but he developed into one. That's how a lottery ticket player works. They don't explode into stardom, but they're guys found under the radar who bring huge returns.

[old nurse]

Quality starting pitching is something you turn over every rock to find. Serviceable back of the rotation guys can be found in rule 5 draft. That Scott Diamond was the "ace" of the staff was a reflection of the rest of the pitchers. Santana is still the only mid rotation or better starting pitcher picked up in the rule 5 draft the last 20 years. Lots of decent relievers and even a couple of closers in that time period. Starting pitchers, not so much.

 

So when do you trade a guy that is performing as a middle of the rotation pitcher when he was projected to be much less?  The trade history of Matt Garza would be a clue as how not to trade and how to trade a pitcher.. The best return came when he had established value. When he still had an uncertain future, he brought back a player of an uncertain future.  After a bad season and with a long contract, he is almost untradeable.  Right now Gibson would bring back a lottery ticket. Another couple good years and he could net a better return.