Try to acquire Sonny Gray?

[cmoss84]

Obviously it sounds like Fernandez's price tag is quite high, and chances are we won't give up the prospects needed to get him. How much cheaper do you guys think Gray would be? Would love having an ace next to Berrios...and the A's are always willing to deal. Just seems like you have to strike when the iron is hot-we have the prospects and there are aces out there. Between Fernandez, any of the met's aces and Gray, I would love to land one of them for the next few years. Is this in the Twins DNA to do this or am I dreaming?

[drock2190]

There is a whole big thread on Gray here somewhere.

 

Basically, I think he's a bit overrated in Oakland. Good #2, not an ace.

[DaveW]

 

There is a whole big thread on Gray here somewhere.

 

Basically, I think he's a bit overrated in Oakland. Good #2, not an ace.

Which is still loads better than anything the Twins have.

[jimbo92107]

Obviously it sounds like Fernandez's price tag is quite high, and chances are we won't give up the prospects needed to get him. How much cheaper do you guys think Gray would be? Would love having an ace next to Berrios...and the A's are always willing to deal. Just seems like you have to strike when the iron is hot-we have the prospects and there are aces out there. Between Fernandez, any of the met's aces and Gray, I would love to land one of them for the next few years. Is this in the Twins DNA to do this or am I dreaming?

Listening to a pundit on the radio today, I had a hard time seeing a counter argument to chasing after the Kansas City model: Decent SP's, great RP's, then tons of speed with just okay hitting to advance lots of runners. Teams that tried to rely on expensive starters have faltered and wasted their money. KC figured out a good recipe and took it to a World Series title.

 

Sonny Gray might be an ace for the Twins, but we don't know that Berrios will be. All we know for sure is that Gray would cost a lot of money and some valuable players. 

 

The Twins appear to be poised to follow the KC model with guys like Rosario, Buxton and Kepler providing speed, while Dozier, Sano and Byung Ho Park provide punch, and the rest just try to play above replacement level. The most encouraging sign is that the Twins now have at least a few SP guys that have a chance to deliver close to 200 innings of solid pitching, while the minors is almost ready to pop with some high-90's relief arms like Meyer and Burdi, and later, Jones, Reed, Chargois, etc. 

 

We should start seeing some of these guys show up in 2016, and the bulk of a winning team could be in place by 2017.

[Thrylos]

You might want to indicate that you are talking about Sonny Gray.  Some of us still have PTSD caused by this guy:
 

http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/736x/76/1c/21/761c213d65edcb634a05ef5b98510ce0.jpg

[ashbury]

You might want to indicate that you are talking about Sonny Gray.  Some of us still have PTSD caused by this guy:

 

Moderator note: I amended the title while moving the thread over to the Twins forum area.

[DaveW]

 

Listening to a pundit on the radio today, I had a hard time seeing a counter argument to chasing after the Kansas City model: Decent SP's, great RP's, then tons of speed with just okay hitting to advance lots of runners.

Couple things:

While the Twins seemed poised to be fine with the "decent SP's" bit, they don't seem poised to go after great RP (and seem to look for decent RP) Additionally, the Royals did bring in James Shields (who pitched in the playoffs and world series in 2014) and Cueto in 2015, so even they sorta of "knew" or wanted an ace.

 

I wouldn't call the Royals hitting just "OK"

Hosmer 122 OPS+

Mouse 120 OPS+

Gordon 120 OPS+

Cain 126 OPS+ (MVP type play overall, defense speed etc)

Morales 128 OPS+

Zobrist 121 OPS+

 

Plus the ones hitting below average had their strengths as well:

 

Perez- Great D, 21 HR

Escobar- Great D, 17 SB

Dyson- 26 SB

Butera- PIRANHA!

 

For comparison's sake the Twins had one guy over 120 OPS last year (Sano) and the next highest were at 102 and 101 (Dozier and Escobar) though they had a lot of guys right below 100 in the 96-99 range (Mauer, Plouffe, Rosario, Hicks)

 

All that is to say the Royals had a GREAT hitting team, an "ok hitting team" is what the 2015 Twins were. They also don't see to value speed/defense like the Royals did either, as they just shipped off Hicks (most SB on the team, great D) and seem to be content at the moment to roll with an OF featuring both Sano and Arcia.

 

[Major League Ready]

 They also don't see to value speed/defense like the Royals did either, as they just shipped off Hicks (most SB on the team, great D) and seem to be content at the moment to roll with an OF featuring both Sano and Arcia.

 

This is both presumptive and short-sighted.  We don’t have nearly enough information to know what the Twins have planned so to say they plan to roll with Arcia and Sano is ridiculous.  Maybe they intend to trade Plouffe for a corner OFer and start the season with Buxton in center and Rosario in a corner.   Maybe they will take a look at a FA.  Who knows? 

 

You are also presuming they have to have the ideal situation on opening day.   By June the outfield is probably Buxton/Rosario & Kepler.  This team still has a ways to go before they can be compared to the Royals.   It does not make sense to manage assets as if we are a team with a window to win that is closing.    Yes, Buxton has debuted but he is not ready and two other key additions (Berrios and Kepler) have yet to debute.  Sano and Duffey have yet to play a full season. This team is just getting started with the players that will allow this team to contend. 

 

ROYALS  
C Perez 25 Intl - Signed for 65,000 as a 16 y/o / Debut 2011
1B Hosmer 25 Drafted -  1st round / 3rd pick 2008 / Debut 2011
2B Infante 33 FA – 4/30.25M
2B Zobrist 34 Trade – Deadline Rental
SS Escobar 28  2011 Trade/Grienke – Had played 192 ML games
3B Moustakas 26 Drafted – 1st round / 2nd pick 2007 / debut 2011
LF Gordon 31 Drafted 2ND Overall  2005
CF Cain 29 2011 Trade/Grienke – Played 43 ML games before trade
RF Rios 34 FA – 1/9.5M
DH Morales 32 FA – 2/17M
SP Ventura 24 Internation 2008 for $28,000 / Debuted 2013
SP Duffy 26 Drafted 3rd round 2007 / Debuted May 2011
  
TWINS  
C Murphy 24 2nd round 2009 by Yankees / Debute 2013
1B Mauer 32 1st over pick in 2001 / Debute 2004
2B Dozier 28 Drafted 8th round 2009 / Debute 2012
SS Escobar 26 Internation 2006 by CWS / Debuted 2011
3B Plouffe 29 Drafted 1st round (20th) / Debuted 2010
DH Sano 22 Internation 2009 / Debuted July 2015
LF Kepler 22 International 2009 / Not debuted
CF Buxton 21 Drafted 2nd 2012 / 2014 debute but not ready
RF Rosario 24 Drafted 2010 4th round / Debuted 2015
SP Berrios 21 Drafted 20012 (comp pick for Cuddy) Not debuted
SP Duffey 24 Drafted 5th round 2012 / Debute August 2015

[DaveW]

 

They also don't see to value speed/defense like the Royals did either, as they just shipped off Hicks (most SB on the team, great D) and seem to be content at the moment to roll with an OF featuring both Sano and Arcia.

 

 

This is both presumptive and short-sighted.  We don’t have nearly enough information to know what the Twins have planned so to say they plan to roll with Arcia and Sano is ridiculous.

 FWIW: Ryan has already said multiple times that they are going to play Sano in the OF.

 

As far as "trading for a corner OF" or "signing one via FA" I will believe it when I see it, until then I will assume Ryan isn't lying to everyone by saying Sano will be in the OF.

 

Ryan also said today that he brought up Buxton too soon, seems to me that the odds are that Buxton won't be starting the season in the majors. (Nor should he be to be honest)

 

As far as your comparing when players were acquired etc, I don't think it's relevant. The original guy said the Twins should follow the Royals model of having an "Okay" hitting lineup and a great bullpen.

 

I pointed out that the Royals have great hitters and a great bullpen. Something the Twins currently lack in both regards.

 

If you want to follow that model, fine. But set yourself up to have great hitters and a great bullpen. Keeping Fien around and bringing in Murphy doesn't look like they are accomplishing that (even more so if they don't trade Plouffe)

[Baseball Bat]

Athletics actually seem very set on keeping Gray, which is code for "you better blow us away with an offer". My guess would be a bare minimum package would be centered around Kepler or Berrios or potentially both. 

[Major League Ready]

 FWIW: Ryan has already said multiple times that they are going to play Sano in the OF.

 

As far as "trading for a corner OF" or "signing one via FA" I will believe it when I see it, until then I will assume Ryan isn't lying to everyone by saying Sano will be in the OF.

 

Ryan also said today that he brought up Buxton too soon, seems to me that the odds are that Buxton won't be starting the season in the majors. (Nor should he be to be honest)

 

As far as your comparing when players were acquired etc, I don't think it's relevant. The original guy said the Twins should follow the Royals model of having an "Okay" hitting lineup and a great bullpen.

 

I pointed out that the Royals have great hitters and a great bullpen. Something the Twins currently lack in both regards.

 

If you want to follow that model, fine. But set yourself up to have great hitters and a great bullpen. Keeping Fien around and bringing in Murphy doesn't look like they are accomplishing that (even more so if they don't trade Plouffe)

Playing Sano, especially a slimmed down Sano is much different than playing an OF that “features both Sano an Arcia”.   You are now defending what you said with a narrative that is very different than your original comment. 

 

The fact you don’t see the relevancy of the difference in maturity of the two teams is exactly the point.  After a long period of futility, the Royals graduated a number of high picks.  They also traded their best player for Cain and Escobar who were just getting started at the ML level.  That team has now matured and these players are in their prime.   The Twins have only graduated one of our top prospects (Sano).  Buxton is not ready yet and Berrios/Kepler have not even made their debut.  Duffey just debuted in August.

 

The point here is not the exact KC model but that they graduated a core group of players and traded a great player for two of their best players.  The 2016 Twins are in the same position developmentally as the Royals were in 2011.  Those players need to mature into ML players.  The team is not ready to contend the moment they get here.  Look at the Mets and Pirates.  Basically the same story.

 

There are a lot of people here that want to manage the team as if they are late in the window of their opportunity to win.  The fact is that window has not even begun.  Managing the team as if we are ready to contend is a mistake.  The team and its assets should be managed to create the opportunity to contend for a number of years.  Plouffe is a good example.  If they truly believe Sano can play 3B, changing your superstar’s position to accommodate an average player is ridiculous, especially when that average player can be traded for assets that will help build a contender when this team matures in a couple years.

[DaveW]

 

Playing Sano, especially a slimmed down Sano is much different than playing an OF that “features both Sano an Arcia”.   You are now defending what you said with a narrative that is very different than your original comment. 

 

A slimmed down Sano? Source? Last I read he was at 268 pounds, show me a good defensive OF that size.

 

So yeah, basically you either have Sano and Arica in the corners, or Sano and Robinson in the corners to start the year (or Robinson in CF and Rosario in the corner) either way you either have a terrible OF defense with Arcia and Sano in it, or you have a guy like Robinson who can't hit taking every day at bats in the OF. Either way it's setting yourself up for failure off the bat in 2016 (until Buxton or Kepler are ready, and frankly that could be July or later on both counts)

 

Of course they could have a trade or FA signing in the works, I just don't see it at this stage, and Ryan continually has been beating the "Sano to the OF" drum this whole (short) off-season thus far.

[DaveW]

 

 

 Plouffe is a good example.  If they truly believe Sano can play 3B, changing your superstar’s position to accommodate an average player is ridiculous.

I'm glad you can agree with me on that.

[Squirrel]

Please stick to the topic. Thanks.

[Squirrel]

 

Obviously it sounds like Fernandez's price tag is quite high, and chances are we won't give up the prospects needed to get him. How much cheaper do you guys think Gray would be? Would love having an ace next to Berrios...and the A's are always willing to deal. Just seems like you have to strike when the iron is hot-we have the prospects and there are aces out there. Between Fernandez, any of the met's aces and Gray, I would love to land one of them for the next few years. Is this in the Twins DNA to do this or am I dreaming?

We've had some discussion on Gray in other threads; here are the links:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20667-sonny-gray/?hl=sonny

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20533-article-chasing-an-ace/

 

To everyone else, please don't jack the thread.

[Loosey]

The amount of prospects (assuming Berrios, plus others) the Twins would have to give up doesn't justify the quality of pitcher that Gray is in my opinion.  Yes, he is good, but if you really look at his numbers he could be exposed at some point.  At this time I would roll the dice to see if Berrios can become even better than Gray.  I would say that is not unreasonable.

[DaveW]

Back to Gray.

If he is truly available I would love to see the Twins get him.

A package centered around Berrios would be a no brainer for me. I would probably even give up Berrios+Kepler if needed (but would rather toss in a few more mid range prospects instead of Kepler)

 

Young, 200IP, sub 3.00 ERA guys don't grow on trees..

[DaveW]

 

 

The amount of prospects (assuming Berrios, plus others) the Twins would have to give up doesn't justify the quality of pitcher that Gray is in my opinion.  Yes, he is good, but if you really look at his numbers he could be exposed at some point.  At this time I would roll the dice to see if Berrios can become even better than Gray.  I would say that is not unreasonable.

I'm curious why you think he would be "exposed" in two straight seasons he has pitched 200 plus innings at an ACE like level (3.08 ERA and 2.73 ERA) He also is only 25, so he still should keep improving as well.

[nicksaviking]

I like Gray, and if he was a Twin, I'd value him unreasonably high, but he's still too much like the rest of the rotation.  This team needs to find strikeout pitchers, Gray isn't one of those.  Like most Twins, he doesn't throw his breaking pitches enough.  The Twins need a different kind of pitcher, not a better version of what they already have.

 

If the Twins had a team made up of Denard Spans and Ben Reveres up and down the lineup, Rickey Henderson sure would look like a nice upgrade, but he still has the same skill sets and wouldn't make any sense for that team. 

[Loosey]

 

I'm curious why you think he would be "exposed" in two straight seasons he has pitched 200 plus innings at an ACE like level (3.08 ERA and 2.73 ERA) He also is only 25, so he still should keep improving as well.

It's just my own opinion but, when I watch him I just don't see a guy that will dominate long-term.  His FIP and xFIP is in the mid 3's and his K/9 has declined slightly.  When I think "ACE" I think guy who can strike a guy out at the drop of hat if needed (Think Johan Santana 2003-2006).

 

Now the Term "exposed" may be harsh.  Basically I see him being very good #2 starter, someone who will have an ERA in the 3.20-3.50 range.  Which is great.  IF the Twins did trade Berrios for him I wouldn't be out at Target Field with my pitch fork.  I would accept it knowing that the Twins have a guaranteed top of the rotation starter.  I would just have regret for a bit wondering if they gave up future superstar to get him. 

[USAFChief]

I like Gray, and if he was a Twin, I'd value him unreasonably high, but he's still too much like the rest of the rotation.  This team needs to find strikeout pitchers, Gray isn't one of those.  Like most Twins, he doesn't throw his breaking pitches enough.  The Twins need a different kind of pitcher, not a better version of what they already have.

 

If the Twins had a team made up of Denard Spans and Ben Reveres up and down the lineup, Rickey Henderson sure would look like a nice upgrade, but he still has the same skill sets and wouldn't make any sense for that team.

 

Ricky says "Ricky is about to turn 57, but Ricky could still draw enough walks to get on base more than Ben Revere. Ricky don't have the wheels these days though. Ricky might not steal more than 30, 35 bags tops."

[cmoss84]

 

The amount of prospects (assuming Berrios, plus others) the Twins would have to give up doesn't justify the quality of pitcher that Gray is in my opinion.  Yes, he is good, but if you really look at his numbers he could be exposed at some point.  At this time I would roll the dice to see if Berrios can become even better than Gray.  I would say that is not unreasonable.

I also wouldn't want to give up Berrios in the deal for him, and I understand he isn't a "true" ace (at least maybe not to the level of Kershaw/Fernandez/Price etc). The A's only have 1 top-100 prospect. Maybe we could strike a deal with them without Berrios. He's given up basically a .220 ave and a 1.1 whip for his career. That's not too far below elite status. I don't see him falling off any time soon.

[DaveW]

I also wouldn't want to give up Berrios in the deal for him, and I understand he isn't a "true" ace (at least maybe not to the level of Kershaw/Fernandez/Price etc). The A's only have 1 top-100 prospect. Maybe we could strike a deal with them without Berrios. He's given up basically a .220 ave and a 1.1 whip for his career. That's not too far below elite status. I don't see him falling off any time soon.

Facing MLB hitters has caused many a pitched to fall off

 

Don't get me wrong, I really like Berrios, but pitching prospects are fickle, give me the proven guy with a couple years less of team control all day and every day.

[adorduan]

 

A slimmed down Sano? Source? Last I read he was at 268 pounds, show me a good defensive OF that size.

 

So yeah, basically you either have Sano and Arica in the corners, or Sano and Robinson in the corners to start the year (or Robinson in CF and Rosario in the corner) either way you either have a terrible OF defense with Arcia and Sano in it, or you have a guy like Robinson who can't hit taking every day at bats in the OF. Either way it's setting yourself up for failure off the bat in 2016 (until Buxton or Kepler are ready, and frankly that could be July or later on both counts)

 

Of course they could have a trade or FA signing in the works, I just don't see it at this stage, and Ryan continually has been beating the "Sano to the OF" drum this whole (short) off-season thus far.

Not sure which Robinson you are talking about, but Shane signed with the Indians.

[gil4]

 

It's just my own opinion but, when I watch him I just don't see a guy that will dominate long-term.  His FIP and xFIP is in the mid 3's and his K/9 has declined slightly.  When I think "ACE" I think guy who can strike a guy out at the drop of hat if needed (Think Johan Santana 2003-2006).

We were definitely spoiled having Santana.  If his best years were the standard for a #1, there are many years where no team had one. 

[DaveW]

 

Not sure which Robinson you are talking about, but Shane signed with the Indians.

Phew!

[DaveW]

 

 

We were definitely spoiled having Santana.  If his best years were the standard for a #1, there are many years where no team had one. 

Yeah, those "prime" years of Santana where he should have won 3 Cy Youngs in a row put him in pretty rare air, that is like top 10 3 year runs in the HISTORY of baseball.

[sane09]

If the Twins try to get Sonny Gray, they will probably end up with a sunny day, or possibly Sonny Bono.