Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 8: 1-5

[dgwills]

Tyler Jay sure has accomplished a lot for a 16 year old

[twinssouth]

Can't complain on your top 5 Seth, good job.   Being the optimist, looking forward to seeing Jay in Chattanooga next year

[sane]

Tyler Jay sure has accomplished a lot for a 16 year old

Especially attending college as a 14, 15 and 16 yr-old.

That kid is far too intelligent to waste his time playing baseball!

Go cure cancer or achieve world peace!

[Rosterman]

With those five guys projected to join the Twins, the future does look pretty darn birght if none of the other 25 or so show up. We have a starter, a corner outfieler who can play first, a center fielder, a shortstop, and a guy who might start but could close. Whew! All we need is a catcher!

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I really would not use the aforementioned company as an argument of ranking Jay in the top 5 of the Twins' prospects list;  it detracts from the argument, because it exposes Big Ten as not quite the baseball powerhouse

 

 

Has nothing to do with the ranking... just background information.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I know it's easy for us as fans to get wrapped up in reports, projections, rankings, hope, etc, and maybe become a little sun blind to the golden glare of prospects' various status and projectability.

For those of us that have been reading various prospect lists for 10, 20, 30 years and can remember the likes of Banks, Gasser, Marte, Sontag and many others, we know how fickle a mistress fate and projectability can be.

But as I look at this top 10 list, other than Stewart who I have some real questions about, the only real "flaw" or concern I have is contact from Walker. Even a little improvement, and I see he and the rest of the group as ALL making the majors and contributing, if not reaching regular/star status.

 

I can agree with that. I was a fan of Mark Funderburk... The reality, as I've said before, is that prospect ranking is not a science because we're dealing with people. Injuries happen. Players don't progress as anticipated. Tools don't become skills. No perfect way to do this... So there is really no wrong ranking. 

 

[Halsey Hall]

Having seen Buxton in Ft Myers and his brief stints with the Twins I have my doubts about his plus plus arm.  So maybe SD or someone who has seen more of him can compare it with, say Rosario and Hicks.  Thanks.

Edited October 30, 2015 by Halsey Hall

[Seth Stohs]

 

Can't complain on your top 5 Seth, good job.   Being the optimist, looking forward to seeing Jay in Chattanooga next year

 

I'd say there is a very high likelihood of him getting there...

[Guest]

 

 

Having seen Buxton in Ft Myers and his brief stints with the Twins I have my doubts about his plus plus arm.  So maybe SD or someone who has seen more of him can compare it with, say Rosario and Hicks.  Thanks.

 

I'm no scout, so I don't know the criteria for a "plus plus" arm vs a "plus arm." I know I thought Buxton had a strong, accurate arm during his half season in CR in 2013. I also can't really compare to Rosario or Hicks, since they did their MWL time in Beloit and I only saw them in a few games each (and Rosario was still playing 2B then).

 

 

[Madre Dos]

10/50. La Casa de Shell es muy Buena!

[nyazbeck]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Polanco in the last top 100? I'd think his season should warrant inclusion.

 

What about Gonsalves? Is he just a little too young at this point to make the list? Or do you think he's got a shot?

polanco was and i be leave Gonsalves should be a top 100 by midseason if he can repeat his numbers

[South Dakota Tom]

Muy buena, es verdad!  Good numbers, Madre Dos!  Hope your house keeps churning out 20% of our top prospects for a long, long time.

[Madre Dos]

Muy buena, es verdad!  Good numbers, Madre Dos!  Hope your house keeps churning out 20% of our top prospects for a long, long time.

 

As long as they call me Mama and not abuela, I'll continue to house the boys. If they think I am old enough to be their grandmother, it will be time for me to retire.

[ashbury]

As long as they call me Mama and not abuela, I'll continue to house the boys. If they think I am old enough to be their grandmother, it will be time for me to retire.

In some localities Granny can be in her thirties when the first grandchild shows up. The name might sound to them about like Auntie would to me. I wouldn't be too quick to settle into the rocking chair in that eventuality.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not doubting Jay can be converted to a starter, I just wonder what kind of starter he could be. If he doesn't miss bets due to reduced velocity, he'll just be another guy.

 

He wasn't the guy I would have picked, but no one in the draft excited me much, even the top 3 SS.

[Madre Dos]

In some localities Granny can be in her thirties when the first grandchild shows up. The name might sound to them about like Auntie would to me. I wouldn't be too quick to settle into the rocking chair in that eventuality.

I remember when Miguel moved in. The only thing he could say in English "Will I get enough to eat here?" The next thing he wanted to know (with Kennys translating) "are you to old to take care of me?" and that was 4 seasons ago.

[ashbury]

The next thing he wanted to know (with Kennys translating) "are you to old to take care of me?" and that was 4 seasons ago.

Kennys can be kind of a wise guy, can't he?

[Madre Dos]

Kennys can be kind of a wise guy, can't he?

Kennys was a great help to me. He and Eddie spoke very good English, but he was the main translator for Miguel until Miguel got some English skills. Kennys has a great sense of humor and the BEST laugh. It's quite amusing to be at spring training and he yells "Mama is finally here".

[mikelink45]

No - Jay cannot be #5  there is something about earning that rating and he has not.  I am fine with top four and don't care about the order, but I want something more substantial in the #5.

[sane]

I just didn't see Gordon as a top 5 pick when I read scouting reports. It seemed like nobody was overly impressed with any specific skill, and his scale numbers all seemed to linger around 50, maybe one 60, and compared to other recent picks and signings, I just wasn't sure he was really a top pick/prospect. Clearly, I mis-read or the reports were just very conservative. He clearly looks like the real deal.

Often, the missing "tool" in scouting scales is "projection". I coached a high school kid this spring who has a lack of tools, but he is 17-yrs-old, 6'5", 155# with two tall parents. He was drafted in the fifth round, but he signed for second round money. Nothing in his skill set warranted that big a bonus, but the PROJECTION of who he will be in five years (6'6", 225#?) overrules ALL of his scouting-scale numbers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

As for Jay, he's a college junior, he should move relatively quickly to the majors, if he's worthy of a top 10 pick....think Garza path.

While this would normally be the case, don't forget Jay has been a reliever for almost all of the past three seasons. I think that will slow down his progress a bit, almost certainly slower than Garza clicked through the system.

 

Garza went all the way from A+ to Minnesota in a single season. I think that's asking a bit much of Jay, who will be on a much stricter innings limit as he stretches out.

 

edit: I see Seth already mentioned this in a later post.

[twinsfanstreif]

If Buxton turned out to have a career like Torri Hunter would we be disappointed? Not quite the Griffy Jr. or Mike Trout we thought he could be but it would be really solid. It's looking like he could go that way and I don't think it would be all that bad

[Seth Stohs]

 

If Buxton turned out to have a career like Torri Hunter would we be disappointed? Not quite the Griffy Jr. or Mike Trout we thought he could be but it would be really solid. It's looking like he could go that way and I don't think it would be all that bad

 

Maybe, but if so, that's our fault, not Buxton's... To expect Griffey or Trout isn't fair to anyone. 

[Mike Sixel]

No, that would not disappoint me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If Buxton turned out to have a career like Torri Hunter would we be disappointed? Not quite the Griffy Jr. or Mike Trout we thought he could be but it would be really solid. It's looking like he could go that way and I don't think it would be all that bad

Any player that has a 40+ WAR career is a resounding draft success.

[Willihammer]

 

Any player that has a 40+ WAR career is a resounding draft success.

Not bad for the 20th pick

[Willihammer]

I can't rip Seth's list (or anyone's) because I love reading all of them.

 

Where would Chi Wei Hu or Alexis Tapia have fit?

[Willihammer]

Looking at Jay and Duffey's first year side by side. Both players relieved, Jay in A+ where he did well and Duffey in Rk where he destroyed.

 

Next year should tell us a lot about Jay.

[kab21]

 

If Buxton turned out to have a career like Torri Hunter would we be disappointed? Not quite the Griffy Jr. or Mike Trout we thought he could be but it would be really solid. It's looking like he could go that way and I don't think it would be all that bad

I would not be disappointed at all.  Torii was a legit all star player for a decade.  If he was Jacque Jones I would be a little disappointed though.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I can't rip Seth's list (or anyone's) because I love reading all of them.

 

Where would Chi Wei Hu or Alexis Tapia have fit?

 

Good, fair questions... I hadn't given it much thought, but I think Hu would have been in that 13-16 range. Tapia was further away, but without knowing how he would have done, I probably would have him in that low 30s.