Three Teams

[USAFChief]

Arguing the Twins "can't" is exactly what is wrong with this organization. They absolutely can. They just too often choose not to.

 

If the chance to add a Cole Hamels is deemed too expensive, I rest my case. Think small, be small.

[bluechipper]

 

Some of it is luck, but a larger portion of it is putting yourself in a position to get lucky.  The Cubs and Astros have targeted players they felt had upside to their cause.  McHugh was targeted because they felt like his pitch repetoire could be adjusted and he'd flourish.  Arrieta was acquired because they took the gamble on upside over consistency.

 

Yeah, some of it is luck, but some of it is making your own luck.  And you can't do that if you won't even put yourself in that position.

You make a good point. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the Cubs would look smart if Arrieta turned into a good 3.50 ERA guy, but for him to turn into one of the best pitchers in baseball still looks smart, but also really lucky.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

While people applaud Epstein for getting Maddon - and they should - does anyone really think the Twins had a shot at him?

I took it as one example of an aggressive move that Chicago makes, that the Twins don't, not necessarily a specific move that the Twins should have or could have made.

 

Heck, Epstein himself is there because the Cubs were aggressive at bringing in someone from outside the organization too.  Again, not that the Twins could have landed Epstein specifically, but it's hard to imagine a less aggressive front office leadership sequence than Bill Smith, Terry Ryan (again), and Rob Antony as (occasional acting) GM-in-waiting.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

You make a good point. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the Cubs would look smart if Arrieta turned into a good 3.50 ERA guy, but for him to turn into one of the best pitchers in baseball still looks smart, but also really lucky.

 

That's absolutely fair.  I was banging the drum for him a few years ago (and had someone compare Strop and Arrieta to PJ Walters and Jeff Gray), but I never thought he'd be a Cy Young candidate.  He might have even come here and flamed out for all we know.  

 

But what matters is that during the 2012 offseason we chose to sign Kevin Correia while the Cubs signed Scott Feldman.  There was ZERO chance Correia was ever going to perform in a way that would allow us to get a huge return on our investment while there was a slight chance with Feldman.

 

Those little distinctions in approach can matter a lot.  We spent most of our rebuild nickel and dime-ing low upside players while the Astros and Cubs took risks.  It isn't completely an accident those chances are paying off.

[Willihammer]

Signing Feldman then flipping him in trade for Arrieta makes the Cubs look pretty damn smart. Drafting Schwarber also looks smart as most boards had him mid-teens/early 20s at draft time IIRC.

 

I credit Ryan for the Milone trade and the Escobar trade, and for drafting Plouffe. He's good at sifting through the clearance rack but his record at identifying mid-market values is mixed. He has a clear weakness for falling into favor with suspects and then extending them instead of letting them walk or flipping them - Doumit, Hughes, Suzuki, Pelfrey, Burton.

 

I'm not sure the Astros rebuild is something teams should model after. Can you even watch a Strohs game in Houston yet? Wholesale slash and burn came at a cost for them that maybe we haven't realized yet. Who knows how rough the franchise would be in if they had caught a few tough breaks this season or didn't win the 2nd wildcard spot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I understand what you're saying, but Jake Arrieta had a 5.46 ERA over 4 years in Baltimore, and now he's Cy Young, so some amount of luck has played into the Cubs quicker rise.

Point is, the Cubs aggressive moves made it more likely they'd be the recipient of such "luck."  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1) They need a catcher. They should be able to trade for that this offseason. Suzuki will then be a plus backup.

Another example of the difference between the Twins and Cubs -- the Twins needed a catcher the last two winters, and only signed a backup with demonstrated little trade value, then locked him into a multi-year extension when they should have kept looking for real solutions at the position.

[d-mac]

 

I don't think Ryan had the advantage of having a guy like Jeff Samardjiza already on the team. And if he did have someone equal to his talent, I'm pretty sure he would jump on the chance to trade him for Addison Russell.

 

And besides getting lucky on Jake Arrieta, I think the main reason why the Cubs are still playing right now is due to their high draft picks. It's just that their picks have been college guys and the Twins have picked high school guys. Let's see where they stack up after Buxton and Berrios get settled in.

 

No he wouldn't. He would have signed Samardjiza to expensive long-term contract through his 30's, because veterans >>>>>>>>> young, cheap, rookies in TR's mind. No Russell, plus all the risk of Samardjiza's arm falling off and being stuck with a fat contract.

 

There was no "luck" with Arrieta. He's always had the stuff to get K's and likely just needed a change of scenery. The Cubs saw something they could fix, and acquire a talented arm at a discounted price and made the deal. Arrieta has now been pitching at an elite level for two full seasons now. There is no luck there. That is how well run-ball clubs operate. 

 

 

[d-mac]

 

The Cubs payroll is ten million more than the Twins (aka what we paid a 40 year old RF to produce a 88 OPS+ for us this season), the Twins absolutely could have mirrored the Cubs strategy.

 

And the Twins have spent on pitching FYI, they have committed over 100 million to Hughes, Santana and Nolasco.

 

There are just so many false narratives out there, Dave. "Whoa is us, Small Market Twins^tm. We could never compete with the big dogs!" It's never going to go away. It's just a crutch for the pro-TR crowd and those afraid of change to keep the status quo. 

[Platoon]

It took them 12 years. The Twins rebuild took 4 years. Does that mean that TR/Bill Smith get 3 times the credit Dayton Moore got? Are we that sure we are "rebuilt"? We missed the second WC by 3 games. And the general consensus is that the lineup that goes north next year, will greatly resemble the lineup that played last Saturday. I am not sure if that is what I want to be considered a rebuild.

[USAFChief]

 

Another example of the difference between the Twins and Cubs -- the Twins needed a catcher the last two winters, and only signed a backup with demonstrated little trade value, then locked him into a multi-year extension when they should have kept looking for real solutions at the position.

I had no problem with signing Suzuki.  

 

The problem is...one team would have flipped him in 2014 at the deadline.

 

One team signed him to an extension, and thought they had solved a problem.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is similar to what the Twins did with Phil Hughes. The only difference is that Hughes was already a better pitcher. This might have something to do with coaching on the Cubs part, but more likely is Arrieta just figured something out, which is pretty lucky.

The only difference?  The Twins paid Phil Hughes $24 mil just to take that chance.  Arrieta started in AAA for the Cubs.  (And Hughes' track record suggested he was much more of an known quantity, both for good -- higher floor -- and bad -- lower ceiling.)

 

We're not necessarily saying the Cubs have magic coaches that made Arrieta great, but Arrieta had potential and was cheap to acquire once the Cubs made the front-end investment in Feldman with an eye to flipping him for a project.  Meanwhile, the Twins picked up Pelfrey and Correia that year, with an eye to keeping both for multiple seasons, and repeatedly used MLB rotation spots as rewards for AAA veterans.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I believe the Twins are pretty set in their ways and unlikely to change. That doesnt make us a negative nelly and we can continue to love them.  

 

Not sure the Twins are capable any more of finding guys like Collin McHugh or Jake Arrieta, who were castoffs and magically turning them into dominant pitchers. But if J.R.Graham or Alex Meyer becomes that guy in a year or two I will gladly eat my words.

 

Molitor is a lone voice in the wilderness decrying the upward trend in strikeouts, while the Cubs and Astros lead the majors in strikeouts and wear it proudly. Win loss records are similar this year but organizational philosophies are completely different. 

 

Terry Ryan traded for Liriano, Nathan and Bonser in the ultimate Jake Arrieta trade ten years ago. They have it in them. Maybe something has changed with the stats revolution but I tend to not think so. I think that teams buy lottery tickets and sometimes that lottery ticket turns into Jake Arrieta and sometimes that lottery ticket turns into Albers. You can't blame the Twins for not having the luck to find an Arrieta - yet.

You are misquoting Molitor on this pretty badly.  Molitor has said that he wants the Twins hitters to cut down on strikeouts, not being content to say “well guys strike out in the majors now so we should just accept that.”  I think that’s laudable coachspeak for “you need to keep working and cut down on strikeouts.”  Molitor is in no way saying that the Twins pitchers should not be intent on striking guys out – he’s really saying that hitters need to adjust to pitching styles emphasizing strikeouts.  The quote is:“

 

I don’t know if it’s the mentality of the players, but they’re definitely not as concerned about it.  Strikeouts are part of the game. We all know that, but they should be somewhat connected to what are you trying to gain by striking out.”

That's not someone saying that they don't want the Twins pitchers striking out, it's a guy trying to keep his hitters from being complacent about strikeouts.
 

The Twins may not be trailblazers when it comes to advanced stats but they are in no way a lone voice in the wilderness.  They have continued to beef up their stats department. We’d all like it if it happened overnight but they’re not blind.  They are not set in their ways and have proven it with an increasing emphasis on power pitching, hiring stats guys, shifting on defense etc.

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Another example of the difference between the Twins and Cubs -- the Twins needed a catcher the last two winters, and only signed a backup with demonstrated little trade value, then locked him into a multi-year extension when they should have kept looking for real solutions at the position.

 

As a counter:

 

1) The Twins had an in house guy who they thought might turn out.  Pinto has not but for a rebuilding team, giving Pinto a shot to develop is preferable to spending the large amount of money/prospects needed to get a long-term catcher.  The Twins also drafted two highly thought of catchers to get further lottery tickets.
2) As a result of thinking Pinto had some upside, they went and got Suzuki for the short-term.  Suzuki has been okay and is not inked to an onerous contract.  He would be a fine back up next year.
3) The Cubs were expected to compete this year so they went out to trade for a catcher, Miguel Montero, during the offseason.  Prior to that they were weak.  The Twins did not expect to compete this year and did not trade for a catcher, trusting Suzuki to be okay and hoping Pinto bounced back.  However, that didn’t work and they are expected to compete next year and are expected to do the same in the offseason.

 

I don’t see this as a difference, I see this as the Twins being a year behind the Cubs and following a remarkably similar path. For your point to be valid, the Twins need to not do anything with catcher this year. I hope that isn’t true. TR is fine by me as far as catcher goes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure the Astros rebuild is something teams should model after. Can you even watch a Strohs game in Houston yet?

Yes.  The Astros attempt at network ownership failed last year, and I understand the new network is fairly widely available.

 

The Dodgers channel was bought by Charter Cable this summer so they've gained too.

[Platoon]

To be clear, my opinion from mid-May forward was that Ryan shouldn't make a big splash at the deadline.

 

But that doesn't absolve him of all wrong-doing. The bullpen was a catastrophe in waiting from day one. Had the Twins simply made more aggressive promotions earlier in the year (Oliveros, Berrios, Duffey, etc.) or picked up a good reliever on July 1st instead of July 31st, the Twins are in the hunt until the closing day of the regular season.

 

I wasn't asking for much, just a bit more of a feeling the front office acknowledged the team's weaknesses and a little more haste in repairing those problems. By the time they got around to actually fixing the issues, the Twins were looking up in the standings instead of down.

 

I could have come up with a half dozen ways to make the team better without breaking open the farm but the front office basically sat on their hands until the end of July. More than anything, that's what frustrated me about this season.

This might be my biggest issue with the FO, an inability to react. They move so slowly, take no chances, and almost always defer to the stable veteran, than the upsided rookie. This is what breeds mediocrity. If something is not working, try something. Who knows, you might end up with more than one Tyler Duffy in a year? I may be wrong, but I think the era of 26 yr old rookies is coming to a close.

[d-mac]

 

A guy with a 5.46 ERA in 358 innings turning into Cy Young has to have something to do with luck. 

 

No, it has nothing to do with luck. It's all about the process. Building and maintaining success in sports and in business require sound processes. The process is about identifying discounted assets that have the potential to pay off. Buy low, sell high. It's the baseball version of what made Warren Buffet one of the richest men on the planet. And sure, sometimes these bets don't work out, and that's rotten luck, but not an indictment of the process.  

This is similar to what the Twins did with Phil Hughes. The only difference is that Hughes was already a better pitcher. This might have something to do with coaching on the Cubs part, but more likely is Arrieta just figured something out, which is pretty lucky.

 

It is indeed what the Twins did with Hughes. Not luck, they identified a discounted asset with the potential to flourish with a change or changes. However, in the Twins case there is no process. It's more of a "throw s**t at the wall and see what sticks" approach. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

The only difference?  The Twins paid Phil Hughes $24 mil just to take that chance.  Arrieta started in AAA for the Cubs.  (And Hughes' track record suggested he was much more of an known quantity, both for good -- higher floor -- and bad -- lower ceiling.)

 

We're not necessarily saying the Cubs have magic coaches that made Arrieta great, but Arrieta had potential and was cheap to acquire once the Cubs made the front-end investment in Feldman with an eye to flipping him for a project.  Meanwhile, the Twins picked up Pelfrey and Correia that year, with an eye to keeping both for multiple seasons, and repeatedly used MLB rotation spots as rewards for AAA veterans.

 

 

That’s a bit disingenuous with Arrieta. He had made over 60 big league starts and was a ML starting pitcher who struggled.  He ended up in the minors for the Cubs in 2013 for 10 games before coming back to the majors because he had stuff to work on.  Arrieta and Hughes had similar ceilings and similar backgrounds – high strikeout pitchers who had shown flashes of dominance without backing it up. Just because Arrieta has reached a higher ceiling thus far doesn’t mean that Hughes didn’t have that same ceiling. You’re retroactively assigning Arrieta a higher ceiling because he reached it.

 

Also disingenuous on the price. The only reason the Twins had to pay Hughes was that he debuted three years earlier.  Arrieta still had arbitration years.  The Twins were able to just give money for Hughes, the Cubs had to trade prospects. I don’t think that the difference is the price paid.

 

Finally, with Pelfrey and Correia.  They didn’t block anyone from the majors unless you count Cole DeVries and PJ Walters.  The Twins were really bad and those vets kept you from pushing guys to the majors super early.  I’d’ve liked a few more lottery tickets too but there’s something to be said for stable mediocrity when the other 3-4 rotation spots are up in the air between people who are not very good.

[ThejacKmp]

 

No, it has nothing to do with luck. It's all about the process. Building and maintaining success in sports and in business require sound processes. The process is about identifying discounted assets that have the potential to pay off. Buy low, sell high. It's the baseball version of what made Warren Buffet one of the richest men on the planet. And sure, sometimes these bets don't work out, and that's rotten luck, but not an indictment of the process.  

 

It is indeed what the Twins did with Hughes. Not luck, they identified a discounted asset with the potential to flourish with a change or changes. However, in the Twins case there is no process. It's more of a "throw s**t at the wall and see what sticks" approach. 

 

You are assuming Arrieta was part of a process? Do you have any backup for that?

The Twins are 2 for 3 on big starting pitchers - Nolasco Santana and Hughes.  They are good at getting crap to stick to walls!
 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Terry Ryan traded for Liriano, Nathan and Bonser in the ultimate Jake Arrieta trade ten years ago.

Huh?  That wasn't an "Arrieta trade" at all.  Pierzynski was a starting catcher with 3 years of team control remaining but getting pushed out by the #1 prospect in baseball, Nathan had just completed a fine season as MLB setup man, Bonser was a stalling former 1st round pick, and Liriano was an interesting young international pitcher coming off a season lost to injury.

 

It was a fantastic trade for the Twins, but none of the principle players or teams involved resembled the Twins/Cubs and Feldman, Arrieta, or Strop circa 2013.

[dxpavelka]

 

Where the Cubs pull ahead is, you never hear any "we're going to do this the right way" crap.

 

Flash back 6 months and try to convince a Cubs fan of that.

[ThejacKmp]

 

This might be my biggest issue with the FO, an inability to react. They move so slowly, take no chances, and almost always defer to the stable veteran, than the upsided rookie. This is what breeds mediocrity. If something is not working, try something. Who knows, you might end up with more than one Tyler Duffy in a year? I may be wrong, but I think the era of 26 yr old rookies is coming to a close.

It also keeps you from being the team that trades away big prospects for short term fixes.  With where the twins are now in their development, I vote taking their time.

 

The twins brought up Sano, Rosario, Duffey, Buxton this season.  They do their fair share of early promotions. They didn't bring up Berrios because they wanted to protect his arm.  That may or may not be right but it wasn't because they trusted a veteran over him.

[Platoon]

Yup, the Arrieta move was a fantastic one because he always had good stuff, was still young (27) and was coming off frankly a poor luck season (4.05 FIP but a 6.20 ERA). He was the perfect "buy low", "change of scenery" and low risk high reward type of a target. Sort of like what the Pirates did with Liriano in a way...as Lev points out the Twins and Ryan much prefer to go with the non upside guys like Correia instead.

Without a hint of sarcasm, we don't trade or promote "stuff". "Stuff" is exasperating, it leads to walks and strikeouts. Ground balls are far safer and more consistent. "Stuff" on offense results in high swing rates, home runs, and swinging strike outs. It's far safer to work the count, and take an enormous amount of called third strikes, followed by the requisite perplexed look at the umpire on the way back to the dugout! Again, no sarcasm intended, it just the way I see the decision making process at One Twins Way.

[d-mac]

 

I had no problem with signing Suzuki.  

 

The problem is...one team would have flipped him in 2014 at the deadline.

 

One team signed him to an extension, and thought they had solved a problem.

 

I wish I could like this post more than once. This encapsulates the main difference between good front offices and the not so good, including the Twins. Buy low, sell high. Good teams do that and they do that consistently. In this specific case the Twins bought at market value, maybe even a slight discount, but when their asset appreciated they held instead of selling. Now they can't sell because they are 20 feet under water.

[DaveW]

 

You are assuming Arrieta was part of a process? Do you have any backup for that?

The Twins are 2 for 3 on big starting pitchers - Nolasco Santana and Hughes.  They are good at getting crap to stick to walls!
 

Uhhh, Hughes provided nothing this year, I wouldn't call that a "win" yet.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I took it as one example of an aggressive move that Chicago makes, that the Twins don't, not necessarily a specific move that the Twins should have or could have made.

 

Heck, Epstein himself is there because the Cubs were aggressive at bringing in someone from outside the organization too.  Again, not that the Twins could have landed Epstein specifically, but it's hard to imagine a less aggressive front office leadership sequence than Bill Smith, Terry Ryan (again), and Rob Antony as (occasional acting) GM-in-waiting.

 

The twins contacted Maddon. He said no. They literally made that aggressive move. The job wasn't as enticing as the Cubs job. Or the Dodgers job, which Maddon likely had as a backup.

[DaveW]

 

The twins contacted Maddon. He said no.

Yeah, because of who the GM was.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As a counter:

 

1) The Twins had an in house guy who they thought might turn out. 

The Twins, when not signing/extending middling veterans, always seem to default to an "in house guy who they think might work out."  Players, managers, GMs, you name it, and that is again an example of a difference between the Twins and Cubs.

 

3) The Cubs were expected to compete this year so they went out to trade for a catcher, Miguel Montero, during the offseason.  Prior to that they were weak.  The Twins did not expect to compete this year and did not trade for a catcher,

The Twins did not expect to compete, but bought Ervin Santana anyway? 

 

The 2014 Twins were only 3 wins behind the Cubs (and actually 4 wins ahead of the Cubs by pythag), with no Cardinals in their division.

 

They could have almost certainly explored the market and still re-sign Suzuki, but instead chose to extend him in July -- for two years -- and preemptively pass on the offseason catcher market altogether.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Uhhh, Hughes provided nothing this year, I wouldn't call that a "win" yet.

 

It has certainly been worth what they put into it - maybe not the extension but the first signing based on that first year alone.  And even with the extension, the twins are paying Hughes 4th starter money the next few years. Outside of injury or catastrophic failure, he's unlikely to be a bad investment.  I'm ready to call it a win.
 

I think Santana is a better argument of not being a win yet.  He'd need to be a solid #3 to be a win.  I think he can do it though. So far, so good. 

 

[Platoon]

Signing Feldman then flipping him in trade for Arrieta makes the Cubs look pretty damn smart. Drafting Schwarber also looks smart as most boards had him mid-teens/early 20s at draft time IIRC.

 

I credit Ryan for the Milone trade and the Escobar trade, and for drafting Plouffe. He's good at sifting through the clearance rack but his record at identifying mid-market values is mixed. He has a clear weakness for falling into favor with suspects and then extending them instead of letting them walk or flipping them - Doumit, Hughes, Suzuki, Pelfrey, Burton.

 

I'm not sure the Astros rebuild is something teams should model after. Can you even watch a Strohs game in Houston yet? Wholesale slash and burn came at a cost for them that maybe we haven't realized yet. Who knows how rough the franchise would be in if they had caught a few tough breaks this season or didn't win the 2nd wildcard spot.

Ryan has made it clear that after he signs a FA, he will not flip him. (See Willingham) He considers that disrespectful to the player, and has said this will discourage other FA's from signing here in the future.