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A.J.


DocBauer

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Posted

I'm just sayin'.

 

We have a whole, way, way too long off season and hot stove league to discuss endless possibilities for our Twins and 2016. And we will. Over and over again. But if there were a poll taken today, day in and day out, as the team is currently constructed, I think we can all agree that the area most in need of some sort of upgrade/improvement for next year would be catcher.

 

No disrespect for Kurt Suzuki who I find to be tough as nails, an excellent catcher in regard to his handling of the staff and doing what a catcher should, and has probably been of more value than he is often given credit for, but he by himself is just not enough for a team with playoff aspiration in 2016 that should be expected and warranted.

 

Now, I wish we had the next Mauer ready to be promoted along with the same talent influx pipeline as Rosario, Buxton, Sano and the rest. But it just isn't the case. And maybe the Twins will move some nice pieces..but not TOO shiny please...and come away with a really nice young catcher this off season. I'm not saying they shouldn't.

 

But what I am going to report is this:

 

A.J. Pierzynski career slash line: .282/.321/.424/.745

A.j. Pierzynski 2015 slash line: .300/.339/.430/.769

 

Career CS%: .3239%

2015 CS%: .3134%

 

I know he's soon to be 39. And this is NOT some continuation of "put the band back together". He is a veteran catcher. He hits LH vs Suzuki being RH. (Quasi-platoon?) The Twins could use a little more LH pop. His numbers could drop 20-25 points across the board and still be solid and above Suzuki's line.

 

I'm just sayin'.

Posted

 

I'm just sayin'.

We have a whole, way, way too long off season and hot stove league to discuss endless possibilities for our Twins and 2016. And we will. Over and over again. But if there were a poll taken today, day in and day out, as the team is currently constructed, I think we can all agree that the area most in need of some sort of upgrade/improvement for next year would be catcher.

No disrespect for Kurt Suzuki who I find to be tough as nails, an excellent catcher in regard to his handling of the staff and doing what a catcher should, and has probably been of more value than he is often given credit for, but he by himself is just not enough for a team with playoff aspiration in 2016 that should be expected and warranted.

Now, I wish we had the next Mauer ready to be promoted along with the same talent influx pipeline as Rosario, Buxton, Sano and the rest. But it just isn't the case. And maybe the Twins will move some nice pieces..but not TOO shiny please...and come away with a really nice young catcher this off season. I'm not saying they shouldn't.

But what I am going to report is this:

A.J. Pierzynski career slash line: .282/.321/.424/.745
A.j. Pierzynski 2015 slash line: .300/.339/.430/.769

Career CS%: .3239%
2015 CS%: .3134%

I know he's soon to be 39. And this is NOT some continuation of "put the band back together". He is a veteran catcher. He hits LH vs Suzuki being RH. (Quasi-platoon?) The Twins could use a little more LH pop. His numbers could drop 20-25 points across the board and still be solid and above Suzuki's line.

I'm just sayin'.

 

I'm just surprised that Atlanta and the Twins couldn't get together and have a deal done in July. As I wondered why AJ wasn't more actively linked to the Twins in previous FA.  It tends to make me think that either AJ or the Twins, or both, had/have a reason for why it didn't happen. I hope I'm wrong.

Posted

I'm just surprised that Atlanta and the Twins couldn't get together a deal done in July. As I wondered why AJ wasn't more actively linked to the Twins in previous FA.  It tends to me think that either AJ or the Twins, or both, had/have a reason for why it didn't happen. I hope I'm wrong.

I echo your sentiment. I feel this has more to do with Atlanta vs the Twins than AJ vs the Twins. First of all, a player seldom has control over where they are traded. Secondly, if I remember correctly, AJ was talking to the Twins pretty seriously before the 2014 season and signing, misguidedly, with the BoSox.

 

To me, this is one of those moves that just makes sooooo much sense that you almost can't conceive it not actually happening.

Posted

 

I echo your sentiment. I feel this has more to do with Atlanta vs the Twins than AJ vs the Twins.  First of all, a player seldom has control over where they are traded.

 

 

 

Right, I understand that part of it, which makes me think that Ryan might have residual thoughts that acquiring AJ was potentially more boat-rocking trouble. and costly in terms of prospects moved, than it was worth to go get him for the second half playoff run.  (Which also might mean that TR was/is satisfied with the catcher situation as is, which raises a whole different set of concerns for me, if true).

 

You're absolutely right, it should be a no-brainer on the part of both parties here to get this done, ASAP.

 

Posted

I actually like Herrmann behind the plate. I have always been a supporter of his potential there, but also at the plate, and his ability to play other positions. And I've even chastised the Twins for not building on his position flexibility. But right now, it just seems he is one of those guys that is athletic, but just. It a ML hitter. And I think that is a real shame.

 

Maybe a late bloomer if he just got some more consistent AAA time? I hope so. But Ryan is no dummy, and he HAS to see this as well.

 

I hope it is more about what the Braves asked for/expected. I have a hard time thinking TR would have given AJ two seconds of thoughts at the deadline, or a year and a half ago, if he really felt there was a personality issue.

Posted

I think MLB Trade Rumors reported that Atlanta was asking for "way too much" for AJ. I wonder if he could re-produce those 2015 numbers... that would be fantastic, but there's plenty of risk involved.

Posted

 

I think MLB Trade Rumors reported that Atlanta was asking for "way too much" for AJ. I wonder if he could re-produce those 2015 numbers... that would be fantastic, but there's plenty of risk involved.

 

Not really.  The Twins aren't likely to sign him for either much money, or for more than a year, or a year with an option.

Posted

 

I actually like Herrmann behind the plate. I have always been a supporter of his potential there, but also at the plate, and his ability to play other positions. And I've even chastised the Twins for not building on his position flexibility. But right now, it just seems he is one of those guys that is athletic, but just. It a ML hitter. And I think that is a real shame.

Maybe a late bloomer if he just got some more consistent AAA time? I hope so. But Ryan is no dummy, and he HAS to see this as well.

I hope it is more about what the Braves asked for/expected. I have a hard time thinking TR would have given AJ two seconds of thoughts at the deadline, or a year and a half ago, if he really felt there was a personality issue.

 

I'd counter by saying that Ryan puts his money where his mouth is if he really wants somebody (Torii, Pelfrey, Santana).  If he really wanted AJ in the recent past when he's had opportunities, then he'd already be here.  

 

Hopefully, this time, he really wants this to happen, or has a better target in mind. But I keep coming back to the Suzuki re-up.  He put his money where his mouth was yet again, and grossly overpaid for a guy he likely could have traded for a half-decent prospect in July 2014- and then re-signed on the FA market in December- for the same deal he gave Zuke on July 31, or probably even less- Suzuki was already regressing to his mean career performance levels that July- again, Ryan re-signing one of his own guys right at the wrong time

Posted

He is out there and an option. Suzuki was an iron man behind-the-[late. Not the best at throwing out runners or (as some said) continuus framing, but he was there everyday to play. 

 

Pinto is not an answer for 2015 except as...maybe...a backup. Herrmann had his chance.

 

Catcher is a weakness.

 

Posted

I'd counter by saying that Ryan puts his money where his mouth is if he really wants somebody (Torii, Pelfrey, Santana).  If he really wanted AJ in the recent past when he's had opportunities, then he'd already be here.  

 

Hopefully, this time, he really wants this to happen, or has a better target in mind. But I keep coming back to the Suzuki re-up.  He put his money where his mouth was yet again, and grossly overpaid for a guy he likely could have traded for a half-decent prospect in July 2014- and then re-signed on the FA market in December- for the same deal he gave Zuke on July 31, or probably even less- Suzuki was already regressing to his mean career performance levels that July- again, Ryan re-signing one of his own guys right at the wrong time

Valid points. But then again, Ryan is a bit conservative in nature. So I don't think he'd be looking at a player...twice in two years...were he not really interested. Maybe he just didn't like the cost at the time?

Posted

 

Not really.  The Twins aren't likely to sign him for either much money, or for more than a year, or a year with an option.

I was referring to the possible regression at age 39. I'm not too worried about the cost.

Posted

 

I was referring to the possible regression at age 39. I'm not too worried about the cost.

 

OK, my bad.  And yeah, it's unrealistic to expect his exact production this year into the future.  But on the bright side, there are rare catchers that age very gracefully that prove the exception.  I was in Chicago to witness Carlton Fisk's career there.  Not saying that AJ is equivalent to the HoFer in production at all, but he's every bit as tough, ornery and obnoxious as Fisk was- the White Sox acquired AJ in part, because they saw in him some of what Fisk had given them previously.

 

Here's AJ's numbers this year at age 38, coming off a down year at age 37- (OPS .625):

 

.300/.339/.430/.769

 

Here's a series of Fisk's numbers starting at age 39, coming off of a down year at age 38- (OPS .600):

 

Age 39-  .256/.321/.460/.782

Age 40-  .297/.377/.542/.919

Age 41-  .293/.356/.475/.830

Age 42-  .285/.378/.451/.829

Age 43-  .241/.299/.413/.712

 

I'm definitely not saying that AJ is going to put up anything like these numbers- and BTW, Fisk accomplished most of these numbers catching while part-time DHing.  Just got to say though, that there's precedent that some guys age really well, especially if they're tough SOBs---- and also especially if they're both very talented hitters at the position that is toughest to hit from- and students of opposing pitchers' tendencies.

 

One more thing to consider:

 

AJ's career slash-  .282/.321/.424/.745

Fisk's career slash- .269/.341/.451/.797

 

OK, one last thing to consider:

 

If AJ turns into a pumpkin next year, instead of a graceful finish to an outstanding MLB career, the Twins won't be any worse off than they are with their current catching situation. 

 

 

Posted

 

I'm just surprised that Atlanta and the Twins couldn't get together and have a deal done in July. As I wondered why AJ wasn't more actively linked to the Twins in previous FA.  It tends to make me think that either AJ or the Twins, or both, had/have a reason for why it didn't happen. I hope I'm wrong.

Me too.  It was being talked up, but didn't happen.  I have to think there was some kind of personal stuff going on there, but what an addition he would have been for the stretch drive.  I know a lot of people rip on Zuke, but my gawsh, where would the Twinks be without him this year?  He was just too worn down to be the everyday guy.  I was shocked how many days I was really expecting him to have a rest that he was once again in the lineup- day games after night games, multiple days in a row, even after extra-inning affairs.  That is one heck of a demanding position for a younger guy to hold up all year, and the Twinks shot themselves in the foot not getting AJ or somebody of that ilk to at least spell Zuke on a regular basis.

Posted

AJ is old for a catcher. We need someone who is young and can throw out runners. Someone who is durable and can platoon that spot. Bring back Susuki for back up and trade Perkins for an average catcher. This team has never picked up multiple big name players in a single year to fill their holds so dont expect that trend to stop.

Posted

 

I'm just sayin'.

We have a whole, way, way too long off season and hot stove league to discuss endless possibilities for our Twins and 2016. And we will. Over and over again. But if there were a poll taken today, day in and day out, as the team is currently constructed, I think we can all agree that the area most in need of some sort of upgrade/improvement for next year would be catcher.

No disrespect for Kurt Suzuki who I find to be tough as nails, an excellent catcher in regard to his handling of the staff and doing what a catcher should, and has probably been of more value than he is often given credit for, but he by himself is just not enough for a team with playoff aspiration in 2016 that should be expected and warranted.

Now, I wish we had the next Mauer ready to be promoted along with the same talent influx pipeline as Rosario, Buxton, Sano and the rest. But it just isn't the case. And maybe the Twins will move some nice pieces..but not TOO shiny please...and come away with a really nice young catcher this off season. I'm not saying they shouldn't.

But what I am going to report is this:

A.J. Pierzynski career slash line: .282/.321/.424/.745
A.j. Pierzynski 2015 slash line: .300/.339/.430/.769

Career CS%: .3239%
2015 CS%: .3134%

I know he's soon to be 39. And this is NOT some continuation of "put the band back together". He is a veteran catcher. He hits LH vs Suzuki being RH. (Quasi-platoon?) The Twins could use a little more LH pop. His numbers could drop 20-25 points across the board and still be solid and above Suzuki's line.

I'm just sayin'.

 

I can not figure out why we didn't make a more on AJ at the end of August, that being said I'd rather have a Drew Butera type then AJ going into next season.  Throwing out runners/getting more double plays is a game changer.  AJ has only out extra base hit Butera by 38 over the last 2 years.

Posted

If the Twins had acquired AJ it is a certainty that he would have been asked about the circuitous route of his career--and he would have responded:  "they traded me away to make way for Mauer at Catcher, and now that Mauer can't play catcher anymore they traded me to replace Mauer."  Followed shortly by:  "...I bet I'm the only guy who was traded so someone else could start, and then reacquired to replace my replacement."  Awkward. So, no AJ.  I'm not surprised.

Posted

If the Twins had acquired AJ it is a certainty that he would have been asked about the circuitous route of his career--and he would have responded:  "they traded me away to make way for Mauer at Catcher, and now that Mauer can't play catcher anymore they traded me to replace Mauer."  Followed shortly by:  "...I bet I'm the only guy who was traded so someone else could start, and then reacquired to replace my replacement."  Awkward. So, no AJ.  I'm not surprised.

Reporter: "So you're saying they traded the wrong catcher, then?"

AJ: "You said that, not me. Heh heh."

Reporter: "The team would have won a few playoff series with you, wouldn't they?"

AJ: "You said that, not me. Heh heh."

Reporter: "Could the $23M a year have been better spent among you and some acquisitions?"

AJ: "You said that, not me. Heh heh. I know I would have settled for just twenty two, though. Heh."

 

/ I don't know if AJ smirks like that, and obviously I'm just funnin' here :)

Posted

OK, my bad. And yeah, it's unrealistic to expect his exact production this year into the future. But on the bright side, there are rare catchers that age very gracefully that prove the exception. I was in Chicago to witness Carlton Fisk's career there. Not saying that AJ is equivalent to the HoFer in production at all, but he's every bit as tough, ornery and obnoxious as Fisk was- the White Sox acquired AJ in part, because they saw in him some of what Fisk had given them previously.

 

Here's AJ's numbers this year at age 38, coming off a down year at age 37- (OPS .625):

 

.300/.339/.430/.769

 

Here's a series of Fisk's numbers starting at age 39, coming off of a down year at age 38- (OPS .600):

 

Age 39- .256/.321/.460/.782

Age 40- .297/.377/.542/.919

Age 41- .293/.356/.475/.830

Age 42- .285/.378/.451/.829

Age 43- .241/.299/.413/.712

 

I'm definitely not saying that AJ is going to put up anything like these numbers- and BTW, Fisk accomplished most of these numbers catching while part-time DHing. Just got to say though, that there's precedent that some guys age really well, especially if they're tough SOBs---- and also especially if they're both very talented hitters at the position that is toughest to hit from- and students of opposing pitchers' tendencies.

 

One more thing to consider:

 

AJ's career slash- .282/.321/.424/.745

Fisk's career slash- .269/.341/.451/.797

 

OK, one last thing to consider:

 

If AJ turns into a pumpkin next year, instead of a graceful finish to an outstanding MLB career, the Twins won't be any worse off than they are with their current catching situation.

You make some compelling arguments but when it comes to catcher in 2016, I believe the Twins should be focused on a player who has little risk of implosion.

 

IMO, the production out of catcher is rivaled by the importance of finding a guy who gives you the best shot to avoid vesting Suzuki's 2017 option. I don't think AJ is that guy.

Posted

A 39yr old catcher is usually a disaster waiting to happen.  His body has to break down at some point.  And you have AJ who numerous times as reportedly been a major pain in the arse.  Going young and adding a vet cancer is about the worst thing a team can do.  I don't care about the slash lines in this instance. 

Posted

Sorry Doc, I do not agree that catcher is the biggest concern position right now, though I think Suzuki has a player option for an additional season if he plays a certain number of games in 2016. I think the Twins would be smart to work in some other guys more often and give Suzuki more time off. For sure. We saw how well ("well" in quotes) Herrmann and Fryer played when they got regular playing time for short periods. Also Pinto needs to be in the mix.

Posted

Anyone know if StatCast collects data on catcher throw velocity?

 

I'd be interested in seeing how A.J. and Suzuki stack up against the league average. All the Twins catchers for that matter. This is not a knock on Suzuki, since I'm ok with him one more season, but it seems like his throws to bases don't get there as quick as they need to. Also I still don't recall a time he's picked a runner off a base. 

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