Is pressure a factor for Gibson? Or is he clutch?

[DaveW]

Sure as hell doesn't look like it. He has to pull it together a bit for big games, get more consistent otherwise he will be nothing more than an average #4 type.

 

Under no scenario should he be starting the wild card game for this team.

[Danchat]

If it was during the first half of the season? Yes.

 

If it was during the second half of the season? No.

 

I just find it insane that if the Twins can slip into the playoffs, we're going to [probably] have to have Gibson and Pelfrey in the rotation.  I just can't see our rotation standing up to any other team's.

[DaveW]

 

If it was during the first half of the season? Yes.

 

If it was during the second half of the season? No.

 

I just find it insane that if the Twins can slip into the playoffs, we're going to [probably] have to have Gibson and Pelfrey in the rotation.  I just can't see our rotation standing up to any other team's.

By my count his last 16 starts now have an ERA somewhere around 5.50. Not good.

[bluechipper]

I'm pretty convinced that Gibson doesn't have that "it factor" or bulldog mentality that a good pitcher needs. He looks scared out there when things aren't going perfectly for him.

[Dantes929]

 

Sure as hell doesn't look like it. He has to pull it together a bit for big games, get more consistent otherwise he will be nothing more than an average #4 type.

Under no scenario should he be starting the wild card game for this team.

You prefer Pelfrey, Milone or Nolasco?    Or Hughes just because he had 5 good innings?     Duffey would be ideal but who knows what the rotation will be at if and when we get there.    Besides which what will you feel about Duffey if he gets rocked the next two starts?   Personally I would be thrilled if Gibson were pitching the wild card game because that meant we got into the wild card game.    He has been hot and cold his whole career pretty much 50/50 either pitching like a #7 or a #1 with very little in between.    In that sense he might be one of our best options.   Like I said I would be thrilled to have him pitch the wild card game because you got to be in it to win it.   There is your scenario.

[DaveW]

Gibson has a 10.72 Career ERA against the Yankees, yes, give me Hughes, Duffey, Pelfrey or Milone over him in a one game playoff against them.

[wickedslider]

obviously not as evidenced by his performance tonight against Cleveland

I figure Molly has to be thinking Hughes, Duffy, Gibson, Pelfrey as his probable playoff rotation. As for a big game? Molly would probably go with Hughes if his next start is good. I'd go Duffy. I love the kid's curveball and the way he strikes guys out.

[sane]

Under no scenario should he be starting the wild card game for this team.

Maybe the Yankees would agree to play a Tee-Ball wild card game, without pitchers.

[nicksaviking]

Gibson has never seemed like a big game pitcher to me, however for me that has always basically boiled down to being able to pile up strikeouts.

 

But last night just made me think he's gassed.  He had the complete game loss a few starts back and then pitched into the 8th the next time out, but he looks like he hit the wall, I thought that last month and he might have gotten his 2nd wind, but he even looks worn out.

[dougkoebernick]

Seriously? It's not like he is Sandy Koufax (who probably had a bad game once in awhile). He is Kyle Gibson. And he has pitched pretty darn well this year and has recently had some good games against teams like the Rangers and Angels - along with some clunkers. He is pitching better than last year and last year he pitched better than the year before. He is going to be a solid pitcher for years to come but he most likely won't be David Price. 

 

Everyone needs to relax and be glad that people don't write blogs about their job and life performance as we all have our ups and downs. 

 

Now I'll get off my soapbox and cheer like the rest of you for our Minnesota Twins. 

[dougkoebernick]

 

Gibson has never seemed like a big game pitcher to me, however for me that has always basically boiled down to being able to pile up strikeouts.

 

But last night just made me think he's gassed.  He had the complete game loss a few starts back and then pitched into the 8th the next time out, but he looks like he hit the wall, I thought that last month and he might have gotten his 2nd wind, but he even looks worn out.

I would agree - and I would think that this is accurate with the majority of pitchers. 

[Linus]

I don't know about the "meaningful" part as you would really have to know him to determine how he handles pressure. One thing is for sure: this business of giving your team NO chance every other start has to change for him to be an important part of a good rotation.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Gibson has never seemed like a big game pitcher to me, however for me that has always basically boiled down to being able to pile up strikeouts.

 

But last night just made me think he's gassed.  He had the complete game loss a few starts back and then pitched into the 8th the next time out, but he looks like he hit the wall, I thought that last month and he might have gotten his 2nd wind, but he even looks worn out.

 

This right here.  As I've written elsewhere, this team is in uncharted territory:  the playoffs.  I'd bet every starting pitcher has tossed more innings than they've done before.  I'm looking at Gibson's game logs and it's pretty obvious.  What's also obvious is there's not much beyond Duffey that can pick up the slack.  Molitor and Allen are doing their best to give starters an extra days rest.  That can only go so far.....

[Linus]

This right here. As I've written elsewhere, this team is in uncharted territory: the playoffs. I'd bet every starting pitcher has tossed more innings than they've done before. I'm looking at Gibson's game logs and it's pretty obvious. What's also obvious is there's not much beyond Duffey that can pick up the slack. Molitor and Allen are doing their best to give starters an extra days rest. That can only go so far.....

Except this has been his MO for both his big league seasons. On good to great start followed by a horrible start. It's not like this only happens at the end of the season

[Mike Sixel]

Every bad outing is a result of a players ability to handle pressure? Uh, no. What actual evidence does anyone have this is about pressure?

 

And, they had a pitcher in AAA who could be pitching right now, Ryan didn't want him here. Remember that.....

[HitInAPinch]

 

Except this has been his MO for both his big league seasons. On good to great start followed by a horrible start. It's not like this only happens at the end of the season

I'm looking at Baseball Reference.com for the numbers.  Gibson starts wearing out in August.

[Linus]

I'm looking at Baseball Reference.com for the numbers. Gibson starts wearing out in August.

I'm not sure that's a ringing endorsement. My point is that his history is one of stark inconsistency so the fact that he spit the bit last night shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

[bluechipper]

 

Every bad outing is a result of a players ability to handle pressure? Uh, no. What actual evidence does anyone have this is about pressure?

 

And, they had a pitcher in AAA who could be pitching right now, Ryan didn't want him here. Remember that.....

Don't you think not being able to handle pressure is what causes his bad starts to snowball really quickly? When he gets off to a good start, he's fine, but once things start to go wrong, he can't seem to get out of it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Don't you think not being able to handle pressure is what causes his bad starts to snowball really quickly? When he gets off to a good start, he's fine, but once things start to go wrong, he can't seem to get out of it.

 

I have no evidence of that at all. Maybe he just doesn't have it some night. Maybe the other team gets lucky some nights. Maybe it is in his brain, but we have no idea. IMO, it is hard to believe that he can't handle getting off to a bad start......but I could be wrong.

 

But I think this is more narrative BS, based on zero knowledge, but it makes a great story....

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

This Jeckyll and Hyde business is getting old for Gibson, regardless of the gravity of the situation. He improved upon his rookie season, and maybe his consistency will continue on that path next year. He's hard to trust at the moment, but it doesn't change the fact that he can be very effective at times.

 

He may be worn out now, which is not good for a rotation full of guys that are coming off injuries, currently injured, or just gassed. Ervin Santana is probably the healthiest guy starting right now, and that's too bad for the Twins' in the postseason, assuming they can make this last push.

[sane]

But I think this is more narrative BS, based on zero knowledge, but it makes a great story....

Agree with Mike. Here are Gibson's monthly WHIP's.

April 1.70

May 1.06

June 1.21

July 1.28

August 1.53

September(counting last night) 1.17

No evidence of fatigue or pressure-related declines.

 

[nicksaviking]

Gibson had 31 starts and 179 innings last year which was an increase of 27 innings from 2013.  He's also had 31 starts in 2015, and while his innings have only increase by 9, he has thrown 3131 pitches this year compared to only 2800 last year.  That's like adding 3-4 extra starts for him. 

 

I'm not into babying pitchers, but I would expect Gibson's season long consistency to even out once his year-to-year workload evens out.

 

On a slight side note, people have been crediting Gibson for being an effective sinkerballer since he was drafted, but his slider and change up are actually rated much better.  I think if he used those pitches more he'd get more swings and misses and cut down on his number of pitches.  I know some argue that putting the ball in play is the most efficient way to cut down on pitches, but it seems to me too many batters are able to consistently foul off borderline sinkers that the contact route is actually more detrimental to pitch counts.  Any year you search, there is an undeniably high correlation between pitchers with high inning totals and high strikeout totals.

[bluechipper]

 

Agree with Mike. Here are Gibson's monthly WHIP's.
April 1.70
May 1.06
June 1.21
July 1.28
August 1.53
September(counting last night) 1.17
No evidence of fatigue or pressure-related declines.
IMO, the REAL question is:
"Can Twins-Daily posters handle the pressure of meaningful games?"

Gibson's monthly ERAs:

April: 4.84

May: 1.36

June: 4.70

July: 3.73

August: 5.29

September: 4.70

 

That's pretty bad.

[DaveW]

 

Agree with Mike. Here are Gibson's monthly WHIP's.
April 1.70
May 1.06
June 1.21
July 1.28
August 1.53
September(counting last night) 1.17
No evidence of fatigue or pressure-related declines.
IMO, the REAL question is:
"Can Twins-Daily posters handle the pressure of meaningful games?"

 WHIP is just one stat, so no, you didn't prove that their is no evidence of pressure related or fatigue declines.

Here are some numbers:

 

1st half ERA: 2.85

2nd Half ERA: 5.64

 

1st Half wOBA: .296

2nd half wOBA: .323

 

In medium and high leverage situations his wOBA .336

In low leverage situations his wOBA: .271

 

xFIP low leverage: 3.17

xFIP Medium and high leverage: 4.75

 

Seems to fit into the narrative quite well to be honest...

[sane]

Gibson's monthly ERAs:

April: 4.84

May: 1.36

June: 4.70

July: 3.73

August: 5.29

September: 4.70

 

That's pretty bad.

Bad yes, but pressure-driven?

IMO, no.

His September ERA is better than August, April and equal to June.

Do you think August, April and June are higher pressure months than is September?

[sane]

Here are some numbers:

 

1st half ERA: 2.85

2nd Half ERA: 5.64

 

1st Half wOBA: .296

2nd half wOBA: .323

 

In medium and high leverage situations his wOBA .336

In low leverage situations his wOBA: .271

 

xFIP low leverage: 3.17

xFIP Medium and high leverage: 4.75

 

Seems to fit into the narrative quite well to be honest...

My questions would be:

1) What are the league average differentials (for those stats) between low, medium and high leverage situations?

In other words, do MOST PITCHERS suffer from pressure?

 

2) Is second HALF vs. first HALF a good measure of pressure?; or is it just random?

[Mike Sixel]

Most high leverage situation occur later in the game....when the pitcher is facing guys for a 3rd or 4th time, I believe. If that is true, there is a HUGE penalty for 3rd and 4th time thru, regardless of the situation of base runners or not.

[DaveW]

 

 

My questions would be:
1) What are the league average differentials (for those stats) between low, medium and high leverage situations?
In other words, do MOST PITCHERS suffer from pressure?
 

 

Ervin Santana career numbers:
Low leverage: .323 wOBA

Medium/high leverage: .317 wOBA

 

His xFIP is neraly identical as well

 

Hughes Career numbers:

Low Leverage: .325

Medium/High: .318

 

Lower xFIP in medium/high leverage as well.

 

(FYI Gibsons career numbers are in line with his 2015 numbers, his wOBA jumps 40 points in medium/high leverage)

[DaveW]

 

 

Most high leverage situation occur later in the game....when the pitcher is facing guys for a 3rd or 4th time, I believe. If that is true, there is a HUGE penalty for 3rd and 4th time thru, regardless of the situation of base runners or not.

Check out the stats in the post above this.

 

FWIW:Leverage Index depends on the inning, score, outs, and number of runners on base.

So yes, it does have some to do with later in game at bats, but that is only one factor.

[sane]

Ervin Santana career numbers:

Low leverage: .323 wOBA

Medium/high leverage: .317 wOBA

 

His xFIP is neraly identical as well

 

Hughes Career numbers:

Low Leverage: .325

Medium/High: .318

 

Lower xFIP in medium/high leverage as well.

 

(FYI Gibsons career numbers are in line with his 2015 numbers, his wOBA jumps 40 points in medium/high leverage)

Thanks for the information.