10-3

[ScrapTheNickname]

Very unlikely.

 

But win one game, then another, and another ... take care of business, etc. The chips will fall.

 

That said, this team is not set up to go 10-3, I wouldn't think.

[Mike Sixel]

Bah, the Astros can't win. The narrative says they have no veteran leadership, and that's why they've been losing so much lately (not here, national media).

[Craig Arko]

I think the odds are grim. But being a silver-lining kinda guy what I do see is a lot of these younger guys feeling and dealing with the pressure of a playoff chase; this may make them better when they do it again.

 

I think 'again' will be next season, and maybe many more to follow.

[Kwak]

Using the 10-3 as a premise, I wonder how everybody will feel if they go 8-5--and fall short by a game!  How many of the cheery responses like:  "...if knew the Twins would be contending for the playoffs in late September, I would take it...", would "change their mind"?

[sorney]

 

Short answer: no. Long answer: no.

You got that wrong. I'll fix it for ya.

Short answer: no. Long answer: Noooooooooo.

[stringer bell]

 

Using the 10-3 as a premise, I wonder how everybody will feel if they go 8-5--and fall short by a game!  How many of the cheery responses like:  "...if knew the Twins would be contending for the playoffs in late September, I would take it...", would "change their mind"?

Too many shoulda, coulda, wouldas to just be happy being close. The last two extra inning losses at home against teams with worse records currently are giving me heartburn.

[Buford_T_Justice]

I have a feeling that the Angels pretty much torched our wildcard chances.

 

You remember the *(#&$ing Angels, right? The ones that can take their *(@#$(@#*($*( Rally Monkey and *($(*@#@* while *()$)@#*($) hokey pokey *(#$&*()@#$&()@#&*)%*(@# and then *(#@#*($*#$!

 

Sorry, was that too much?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Too many shoulda, coulda, wouldas to just be happy being close. The last two extra inning losses at home against teams with worse records currently are giving me heartburn.

 

Every roster spot counts, even the ones in the RP corps, or now filled by someone who was in the AA playoffs.....so he's good enough now, but he wasn't two weeks ago?

[spinowner]

If the Twins were in the NL their 76-73 record would have them essentially out of the postseason. Of course, if they were in the NL they'd have had an easier schedule and would have a better record. The reason the Twins are still in the hunt is that the AL is experiencing a season of unusual parity. At this writing only Oakland is mathematically eliminated from the postseason. A 3-way tie for the last WC spot is very easy to envision. It all depends on which slightly-above-average team wins the right games during the next 13 or 14 days.

[mikecgrimes]

Having those three games against the Royals at the end is huge.  If we need it we can get a sweep assuming they clinch long before especially if the three games can't change a thing for them.

[d-mac]

Nope. It ended this weekend. 

[DaveW]

Just need to go 9-3 now

 

Hell, 2 games back? 8-4 may be good enough.

[DaveW]

Just need to go 8-3 now! 6-6 could even conceivably get it done but, hey lets go get 8 of the next 11.

 

1 game back!

[DaveW]

Twins are tied with Houston in the loss column. Control their own destiny!

[stringer bell]

Houston plays three against West leaders Texas at home. I say they win two out of three. They then go on the road for six games, where they have been pretty bad--a 2-4 record would leave them with 84 victories total.

 

The Angels get Oakland and Seattle at home. I expect them to win four of six. They then go to Texas to finish the season. Let's be charitable and give them a split. That is 6-4 to finish the season for a total of 84 wins.

 

With this scenario, the Twins need to win 7 of their remaining 11 games to get to 85 and the second wild card.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Unfortunately it doesn't look like Houston will face Hamels this weekend. The Twins face Boyd, Simon, and Randy Wolf.

 

A win tonight would be huge. Not only would it mean a half game back with 10 to play, but Cleveland would be effectively eliminated (with four games in Cleveland to go).

[Mike Sixel]

It's pretty much Houston, MN, and LAA now. I'd say it is almost a coin flip, frankly. Pretty good odds for a team I thought would win 80 games....

[DaveW]

 

Houston plays three against West leaders Texas at home. I say they win two out of three. They then go on the road for six games, where they have been pretty bad--a 2-4 record would leave them with 84 victories total.

 

The Angels get Oakland and Seattle at home. I expect them to win four of six. They then go to Texas to finish the season. Let's be charitable and give them a split. That is 6-4 to finish the season for a total of 84 wins.

 

With this scenario, the Twins need to win 7 of their remaining 11 games to get to 85 and the second wild card.

I think 85 gets the Twins a decent shot to win the spot, and if not a decent shot to at least "Tie" and goto a game 163.

 

8-3 would still be better

[DaveW]

According to fangraphs: Twins have a 14.5% shot at winning the wild card. Stros havea  68.5 % chance of making the playoffs (Them and Texas have a combined 70% chance of one winning the wild card) Angels have a 20.2% chance of making the playoffs.

 

The numbers are a lot smaller because they "expect" the Twins to end up with 83 wins.

[Minniman]

Having a five game losing streak in late September does not bode well for a team in the hunt to play in late October.

[Dantes929]

 

Using the 10-3 as a premise, I wonder how everybody will feel if they go 8-5--and fall short by a game!  How many of the cheery responses like:  "...if knew the Twins would be contending for the playoffs in late September, I would take it...", would "change their mind"?

I would accept 8-5 and take my chances with where the chips fall.  Houston, Angels and Twins are all around 5-6 games above .500 after 150 games.  Why do people think they have to go 7 games over .500 in the last 13 to even have a chance?   Even with the great series against the Twins the Angels are only 6-4 in their last 10 games and that was a good week.   Fact is we don't know how many is needed.   Those teams could take a nose dive and 6-7 does the trick or we could go 9-4 and still not get it done.   I will stick with 8-5 as a likely record to get us into game 163.

As far as the contending part I have the same view of the word competitive.   It does not mean coming close and then losing.   It means coming close and either winning or losing.    I love that they have a chance for a playoff spot even if it is a small one.   Its more about the journey than the destination for me and this has been a pretty fun season so far and shapes up to be more fun yet if they can beat Cleveland tonight.  Go Twins!

[mikecgrimes]

Theres a reason that I never get caught up in these we have to go 10-3, or must win things.  You win a couple and the thing that had close to a 50/50 chance of happening does and suddenly you only need to go 6-5 or 7-4?  Why not just win every game until we clinch, an 11 game winning streak is not that crazy especially playing teams that don't want it more and will put September call ups in the lineup.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

According to fangraphs: Twins have a 14.5% shot at winning the wild card. Stros havea  68.5 % chance of making the playoffs (Them and Texas have a combined 70% chance of one winning the wild card) Angels have a 20.2% chance of making the playoffs.

 

The numbers are a lot smaller because they "expect" the Twins to end up with 83 wins.

Yeah, remember that is using Fangraphs' stat projections, which still project the Twins as the worst team in the league over the rest of the season, basically unchanged from their preseason projection (72-74 win pace over a full season).

 

I much prefer their "season to date stats mode" which gives the Twins a 22% chance, or their "coin flip mode" which gets us up to 28%.

[TwinsCD]

 

It's pretty much Houston, MN, and LAA now. I'd say it is almost a coin flip, frankly. Pretty good odds for a team I thought would win 80 games....

 

One of my friends who is an Orioles fan was trying to convince me this morning that they still had a shot.  My simple text reply to him -- "Ur done lol"

[ashbury]

It's pretty much Houston, MN, and LAA now. I'd say it is almost a coin flip, frankly. Pretty good odds for a team I thought would win 80 games....

Probably this has already been covered, but what are the tie-breaks among these three teams? Pairwise, and also if all three tie...

[DaveW]

As I said, 10-3 needed. They need to go 5-1 from here on out to hope for a game 163 and event then it might not be enough to even push for a tiebreaker game.

 

Houston has a great shot to go 4-1, which means the Twins would need to go 6-0 to "tie" them.

 

3-2 at absolute worst for Houston, which means 5-1 for the Twins means they "tie"

 

Makes you wish Molitor didn't piss away multiple wins throughout the season with bullpen management and bench/PR/PH management and TR would have tried to fix the pen just a tad bit sooner than the absolute last minute. Oh well.

[FattCrapps]

The Twins won, so that means the Astros and Angels will win.   That's how it works.

[Mike Sixel]

Probably this has already been covered, but what are the tie-breaks among these three teams? Pairwise, and also if all three tie...

http://espn.go.com/blog/jayson-stark/post/_/id/1409/read-it-and-weep-explaining-all-of-the-potential-tiebreaker-scenarios

[spinowner]

Still on track!