To trade or not to trade Plouffe this offseason.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Suzuki is good enough to get us in the playoffs this year, and he will be good enough to get us into the playoffs next year. We do need to upgrade catcher sometime in the future, but no one is standing on the ledge.

Love the enthusiasm, but Twins aren't in the playoffs yet. Also, pretty sure they're winning despite their catcher problems. I'll eat my shoe the day Suzie "get(s) us into the playoffs."

[Mike Sixel]

Uh, I think this is the list of people suggesting they trade Plouffe for a guy that only plays next year:

 

 

 

With that out of the way, I don't know what "equal value" means. Did Span return equal value? If so, yuck. Hence, it depends on the return. If you want to assume that the Twins get equal value, that's great. But, that's not always the case, so I'm not sure what your point is, actually.....

[bholmgren]

I say keep him.  Work a rotation with Plouffe/Sano/Mauer at 3B/1B/DH just like has been happening.  Also, I think they re-sign Hunter as a 4th OF/bench bat/veteran clubhouse guy.  Rosario/Buxton/Hicks as a starting OF should be pretty solid.  

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I say keep him.  Work a rotation with Plouffe/Sano/Mauer at 3B/1B/DH just like has been happening.  Also, I think they re-sign Hunter as a 4th OF/bench bat/veteran clubhouse guy.  Rosario/Buxton/Hicks as a starting OF should be pretty solid.  

Why would a carousel of corner infielders/DHs be better than upgrading C or SP? Just give Big Mig the job and instantly he you've got the best 3B in baseball. What could be better than that?  

[Blackjack]

So if the Twins trade Plouffe, and Sano gets hurt, who plays third base?? There doesn't seem to be much third base depth in the minors....

[TheLeviathan]

 

So if the Twins trade Plouffe, and Sano gets hurt, who plays third base?? There doesn't seem to be much third base depth in the minors....

 

 If you go this deep into worst case hypotheticals you'll scare yourself out of doing anything to help the team.  

[Major League Ready]

 

Uh, I think this is the list of people suggesting they trade Plouffe for a guy that only plays next year:

 

 

 

With that out of the way, I don't know what "equal value" means. Did Span return equal value? If so, yuck. Hence, it depends on the return. If you want to assume that the Twins get equal value, that's great. But, that's not always the case, so I'm not sure what your point is, actually.....

Really?  Your interpretation of what this means is to use an example of a trade that did not return equal value.  If I used the Did AJ Pierzynski return as my expected return would you tell me that is ridiculous given the Twins came out far better than expected?   I bet you would and you would be able to come up with a reasonable interpretation of what is meant by equal value.  This is really simple stuff for anyone that has participated in these types of decisions.  Equal is not a complicated word.  When clubs trade, in that moment, each side believes they are getting equal value for the assets they are giving up or they would not do the deal.  In a theoretical discussion like this one, you can’t assume you lose or win the trade. 

So, the point is that there is a projected return, a floor, and a ceiling for all the players involved.  This or any other trade decisions is based on the most probable return.   The logical end of your premise is that you should never trade for prospects because they might not work out.  Yet, when all of the failures in free agency are mentioned you cite the exact opposite logic.

[tobi0040]

 

 If you go this deep into worst case hypotheticals you'll scare yourself out of doing anything to help the team.  

 

Yeah. Most are saying we should get a catcher for Plouffe.  I would argue our catcher next year is as bad as the 3B replacement without anyone getting hurt.

[SwainZag]

 

So if the Twins trade Plouffe, and Sano gets hurt, who plays third base?? There doesn't seem to be much third base depth in the minors....

There should always be a guy like Nunez on the roster who can play multiple position in case of this.  If Sano goes down for significant time, you do your best to patch the holes.

 

You could have said it when they traded AJ.  If Mauer gets hurt, who is going to catch?  

[rghrbek]

People keep on bringing up the AJ trade.  One of the greatest trades in Twins' history.  AJ was an all star at a supremely valuable position.  It's just not apples to apples.  Ploufe is not an all star and he almost assuredly never will be.

 

There are obviously valuable points for and against.   I guess for me, I see the Twins as a very average, flawed team.   The AL is ripe with parity, and somehow the Twins are in the race.   Does that automatically mean we will be in it again next year?   No.   This team has too many questions, and our best players (outside of Dozier) our going to be our young ones....    That is slightly scary (and exciting) considering we are going to be completely relying on Rosario, Buxton, Hicks, Sano, Duffy, Berrios, May to keep us moving forward. 

 

With all that being said, I would absolutely want to trade Ploufe in the off season.  What we are getting from him now is just about his ceiling.  If the young kids, as a group, fail next season, then Trevor Ploufe is not getting you to the post season.   I don't feel we are close enough to being a perennial playoff team just yet, to hang onto a chip, that you can turn around into something more positive for potentially both next year and in the future.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

  If the young kids, as a group, fail next season, then Trevor Ploufe is not getting you to the post season.  

Blammo.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

So if the Twins trade Plouffe, and Sano gets hurt, who plays third base?? There doesn't seem to be much third base depth in the minors....

 

You sign a AAAA player to stash in Rochester

[SwainZag]

 

People keep on bringing up the AJ trade.  One of the greatest trades in Twins' history.  AJ was an all star at a supremely valuable position.  It's just not apples to apples.  Ploufe is not an all star and he almost assuredly never will be.

 

There are obviously valuable points for and against.   I guess for me, I see the Twins as a very average, flawed team.   The AL is ripe with parity, and somehow the Twins are in the race.   Does that automatically mean we will be in it again next year?   No.   This team has too many questions, and our best players (outside of Dozier) our going to be our young ones....    That is slightly scary (and exciting) considering we are going to be completely relying on Rosario, Buxton, Hicks, Sano, Duffy, Berrios, May to keep us moving forward. 

 

With all that being said, I would absolutely want to trade Ploufe in the off season.  What we are getting from him now is just about his ceiling.  If the young kids, as a group, fail next season, then Trevor Ploufe is not getting you to the post season.   I don't feel we are close enough to being a perennial playoff team just yet, to hang onto a chip, that you can turn around into something more positive for potentially both next year and in the future.

 

People bring up the AJ trade because they traded an above average player who had value in order to start a younger talented player at that position.  At the time AJ had made 1 AS game, and has made 2 now in his 18 year career.  While catcher is indeed a valuable position, talent at 3B is also fairly shallow.  At the time the Twins traded AJ, he accumulated 5.6 WAR over his last 2 seasons.  At the moment Trevor Plouffe has accumulated 5.7 WAR over the last 2 seasons.  The biggest difference is AJ was 26 and Trevor will be 29 this offseason, other than that it's not a bad comparison at all.

 

I think the problem with hanging on to him past this offseason is that is probably his peak trade value, at least IMO.  After that he either becomes a 2 month rental at the deadline, which more than likely will bring back less or they lose him to free agency.  

[TheLeviathan]

If people are worried about Kepler/Arcia/Vargas or other young players next year than Plouffe is even more irrelevant to 2016.

 

At some point you have to trust your young talents or it won't matter anyway.

[drjim]

 

If people are worried about Kepler/Arcia/Vargas or other young players next year than Plouffe is even more irrelevant to 2016.

 

At some point you have to trust your young talents or it won't matter anyway.

 

This doesn't make any sense. If the first three guys flop Plouffe is very relevant to next year.

 

Of course, doesn't mean they shouldn't trade him, but this reasoning is suspect, none of those three contributed this year and the offense has more or less held up and is probably on the upswing, contributions from them or not.

[drjim]

 

So the "$200k in each of the five years after 2016" isn't a sure thing after all?

That was your hypothetical, not mine.

To get back to something baseball related, I stand by my earlier opinion...if the Twins are going to trade one of their best assets this winter, they need to get something in return that will provide equal or greater value to the major league team starting on opening day in 2016.

I'm not at all interested in weakening the 2016 team for potential gain years down the road. Not to mention a player(s) who is on the field in 2016 can still be there in subsequent years.

 

I understand this point but it can be expanded a little to think about how it plays out.

 

I would have no interest in trading Plouffe for a return that contributes nothing to next year, but it could make sense to trade Plouffe for multiple pieces that increase depth. For example, a reliever and a SP that is close, or an extra OF type and a C prospect that is close. It is good roster management to take a position of surplus to shore up another lesser spot and add depth in other spots of the organization.

 

I am also not a fan of locking into an everyday DH going into the season, and Sano is probably ready to play 3B every day. There is some guys that are worthwhile to give a shot and it is pretty easy to a get a veteran bat, either in the offseason or at the trading deadline if all internal options flop.

[tobi0040]

 

Sano is probably ready to play 3B every day. 

 

Agreed.  

 

Sano has a oWAR of 2.5 in 50 games.  That is a 7.5 pace at DH.  If he was at third with the pace he is on he could be a 10 WAR player, even somewhat adequate defense at 3B would likely post a positive value there relative to his negative .5 at DH in just 50 games.

[TheLeviathan]

 

This doesn't make any sense. If the first three guys flop Plouffe is very relevant to next year.

 

Of course, doesn't mean they shouldn't trade him, but this reasoning is suspect, none of those three contributed this year and the offense has more or less held up and is probably on the upswing, contributions from them or not.

 

If the reason not to trade Plouffe is because you have three unproven options, that's bad reasoning.  That's the point.  At some point in building a club you have to trust your unproven options to step up to the opportunity.  You can't wait around for injuries to present those opportunities, sometimes you have to put them out there. 

[FanFromPhilly]

I'd be ok with the Twins trading any of Plouffe, Sano, Gibson, Dozier, or one of the outfielders if they believe that will give them an upgrade over what they have in the minors.

[FanFromPhilly]

 

I'd be ok with the Twins trading any of Plouffe, Sano, Gibson, Dozier, or one of the outfielders if they believe that will give them an upgrade over what they have in the minors.

Ooops, I hope it's obvious I didn't mean to include Sano .

[dgwills]

 

So if the Twins trade Plouffe, and Sano gets hurt, who plays third base?? There doesn't seem to be much third base depth in the minors....

They could move Travis Harrison back to 3rd.  I do realize he hasn't been doing that well, but you never know with prospects.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

They could move Travis Harrison back to 3rd.  I do realize he hasn't been doing that well, but you never know with prospects.

 

That might be fine in a 15 day DL pinch, but I think the AAAA player is the wise thing.  Might be below average in MLB, but if Sano needs to be down for longer, having some AAA  depth could be nice when it's needed to add a 40 man spot. 

 

On a side note, Escobar can play 3rd as well.  You can always call up Polanco and slide Escobar over.  Not ideal either, but an option. 

[mudcat14]

Does Dozier have the arm to play 3rd?  Seems like in the next year or two, we're gonna have a dearth of middle infielders.  Brian's bat certainly profiles closer to a third baseman than second.  He wasn't a quality 2nd baseman initially, but improved rapidly.  If there really is such a concern about Sano's long-term viability at the hot corner, maybe Bulldozer is the answer. 

[DaveW]

Should have signed Nelson Cruz like I was touting all year.

[kab21]

 

Does Dozier have the arm to play 3rd?  Seems like in the next year or two, we're gonna have a dearth of middle infielders.  Brian's bat certainly profiles closer to a third baseman than second.  He wasn't a quality 2nd baseman initially, but improved rapidly.  If there really is such a concern about Sano's long-term viability at the hot corner, maybe Bulldozer is the answer. 

from dictionary.com

noun
1.
an inadequate supply; scarcity; lack:
There is a dearth of good engineers.
2.
scarcity and dearness of food; famine.

 

I am assuming that you mean the opposite of dearth but I completely disagree then.  I just hope the Twins can man SS internally for the next couple of years.  There is absolutely no reason to move Dozier off of 2B especially since his bat profiles as a 3B.  It is a huge bonus to have a 2B that hits like a 3B and fields above average.

[mudcat14]

 

from dictionary.com

I am assuming that you mean the opposite of dearth but I completely disagree then.  I just hope the Twins can man SS internally for the next couple of years.  There is absolutely no reason to move Dozier off of 2B especially since his bat profiles as a 3B.  It is a huge bonus to have a 2B that hits like a 3B and fields above average.

Ouch!  Nothing like putting the fingers to keyboard and proving my ignurntz!  You are correct I meant the opposite of dearth.  Kind of sad when you live 50+ years on the planet and find you've spent most of them completely backwards on a word or subject. 

 

I kind of feel like Arthur C. Carlson, who once said, "Andy, as God is my witness.  I thought Turkeys could fly."

 

Regardless, I'm not advocating moving Dozier to 3rd.  I'm just saying as insurance in case Sano were to suffer a lengthy injury or prove unusable at 3B.  I don't find either scenario likely enough to keep Plouffe around when trading him could enable us to fill greater needs.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd consider putting him back at SS before 3B... just my 2 cents, but he's doing so well at 2B and Escobar is doing a fine job at SS that I don't see the point.  Polanco and Santana need to earn it at this point, and if Escobar keeps doing well, then at some point, someone gets traded.  The real problem here isn't 3B anyways.   We have 2 of them.  One is above average, and one is looking like a star.  We have holes in other places (1B, C, RP, and OF). Fortunately, some of these are easy to correct with impact talent. 

[Major League Ready]

 

I understand this point but it can be expanded a little to think about how it plays out.

 

I would have no interest in trading Plouffe for a return that contributes nothing to next year, but it could make sense to trade Plouffe for multiple pieces that increase depth. For example, a reliever and a SP that is close, or an extra OF type and a C prospect that is close. It is good roster management to take a position of surplus to shore up another lesser spot and add depth in other spots of the organization.

 

I am also not a fan of locking into an everyday DH going into the season, and Sano is probably ready to play 3B every day. There is some guys that are worthwhile to give a shot and it is pretty easy to a get a veteran bat, either in the offseason or at the trading deadline if all internal options flop.

All things being equal, I agree.  However, I would trade for the best return if there was a significant difference between the ML assets and the prospects.  As someone stated earlier, limiting your potential trade partners reduces the ability to get a deal done and/or the return.  That gives us more flexibility and assets that are perceived to be more value to fill holes.  I would also be just fine if we thought the return was very good and the players were AA or AAA prospects that are close to ML ready.  I would rather be really good for a very long time than a little better next year.

[Major League Ready]

 

I understand this point but it can be expanded a little to think about how it plays out.

 

I would have no interest in trading Plouffe for a return that contributes nothing to next year, but it could make sense to trade Plouffe for multiple pieces that increase depth. For example, a reliever and a SP that is close, or an extra OF type and a C prospect that is close. It is good roster management to take a position of surplus to shore up another lesser spot and add depth in other spots of the organization.

 

I am also not a fan of locking into an everyday DH going into the season, and Sano is probably ready to play 3B every day. There is some guys that are worthwhile to give a shot and it is pretty easy to a get a veteran bat, either in the offseason or at the trading deadline if all internal options flop.

All things being equal, I agree.  However, I would trade for the best return if there was a significant difference between the ML assets and the prospects.  As someone stated earlier, limiting your potential trade partners reduces the ability to get a deal done and/or the return.  That gives us more flexibility and assets that are perceived to be more value to fill holes.  I would also be just fine if we thought the return was very good and the players were AA or AAA prospects that are close to ML ready.  I would rather be really good for a very long time than a little better next year.

[drjim]

All things being equal, I agree. However, I would trade for the best return if there was a significant difference between the ML assets and the prospects. As someone stated earlier, limiting your potential trade partners reduces the ability to get a deal done and/or the return. That gives us more flexibility and assets that are perceived to be more value to fill holes. I would also be just fine if we thought the return was very good and the players were AA or AAA prospects that are close to ML ready. I would rather be really good for a very long time than a little better next year.

While true in theory, I think there would have to be a premium towards acquiring pieces that help immediately as the Twins should absolutely be thinking division title next year.

 

Another thought on this (not necessarily from you specifically) is the idea that the Twins have to trade Plouffe at the point they get the maximum in return, peak value. No they don't. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the Twins capturing most of that excess value themselves as they try to win.