a few random thoughts

[TheLeviathan]

To be fair, it wasn't that difficult of a situation.  If Smith had been paying attention to TR's work the previous few years, he would have realized there was no shame in keeping a quality player on your contending team and getting the compensation draft picks.

 

The mistake wasn't taking action on Torii and Johan earlier; the mistake was panicking when Torii left and Johan was a year away from leaving, and thinking that Delmon + Gomez circa 2008 was a substitute worth its high price (Garza + Bartlett + Santana - comp picks).  Nothing in TR's record says he would make or even recommend those moves.

I don't disagree that Smith further bungled the hand he was dealt, but Ryan's refusal to do anything the year prior destroyed all leverage and crippled our options.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No!  The mistake was not accepting that '06 was no longer, that the Twins were a mid-market team, and were owned by Carl Pohlad.  Johan Santana and Hunter (after his '07 option was exercised) should have been traded before the '07 season started--and procured the ransom that is normally reaped (back then) by trading top players.

I don't think ransoms have ever been normally reaped by trading top players.  For every Knoblauch or RA Dickey trade, there's been a clunker like Sabathia or one of the Cliff Lee deals, etc.  It is certainly not a ransom for players of Hunter's level.  Even Johan is better for a contending team than the speculative "ransom" you will likely receive for him.

 

Actually, Target Field was formally approved in 2005.  TR should have been much more aggressive in locking up / extending players after that point, but wasn't (waited until Mauer won a batting title, then only bought out 1 FA year, did not sign Morneau or Cuddy, and probably didn't aggressively try to extend Torii and Johan while they were still 2-3 years away from FA).  That's on TR.

 

But by 2008, there's no reason the Twins couldn't afford to sign a Mike Cameron level FA to replace Torii, and hold on to Johan for his last season unless they were overwhelmed by an offer.

[puckstopper1]

 

Going all the way back to McPhail, the Twins, and Ryan, as an organization, have made the majority of their trades in the offseason. They build their team, run with it, making internal tweaks throughout the year.

The trade for Stewart a few years back was an abnornality, but one that wirked. A couple decades before that was the move for Niekro. (Mixed results)
 

 

Going back a bit, but the Viola trade happened at the trade deadline, and that one worked out pretty well.

[dxpavelka]

The reason Mauer continues to hit # 3 is the same as the reason you give as to why he remains in the starting lineup.  It's much easier to state that Mauer is not a # 3 hitter than it is to point out another guy who IS a # 3 hitter at this point in time.  Dozier?  At .253?  Don't think so.  Sano?  Pencil him in at 4 and don't take him out for the next 15 years.  Buxton?  Someday.  Maybe? 

[nokomismod]

Pelfrey made a stink about being moved to the pen when he was under contract.  How do you think he'd react at the negotiating table?

 

Also, Milone is Twins property until 2019 unless traded or released.  Let's hope the Twins will be able to trade him this off-season.  A lat strain isn't too serious so he should be able to come back this year.  I hope he doesn't though, as I'd guess coming off of an injury, his trade value (which isn't high to begin with) is more likely to go down than up."

Pelfrey might very well not want to sign with the Twins again, but I would still have the conversation with him and offer a reasonable contract.

 

Good to know on Milone still being under team control. It's not the current Twins have a bullpen like the Royals. Why not consider keeping these two guys around letting some of the marginal bullpen guys get bumped off the team?

[puckstopper1]

 

No!  The mistake was not accepting that '06 was no longer, that the Twins were a mid-market team, and were owned by Carl Pohlad.  Johan Santana and Hunter (after his '07 option was exercised) should have been traded before the '07 season started--and procured the ransom that is normally reaped (back then) by trading top players.

 

Agreed!  Like the Twins trading Viola at the deadline.  That worked out pretty well!

[dxpavelka]

 

I would definitely entertain trading Plouffe.  I would only trade Dozier if we got a king's ransom for him AND you are sure that Polonco could be a decent bat and above average glove at the MLB level.

They will never trade Dozier as long as they can continue to convince fans that he's a legitimate power hitter.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Because Pelfrey already refused to move to the bullpen. Why sign him to start, with the massive list of better alternatives?

[Kwak]

 

The Twins have May, Berrios, Duffey, Rogers.......and Nolasco.

 

On what planet is signing Pelfrey a good idea?

 

Berrios is a high upside guy, he should be here now, getting MLB exposure, and maybe helping them in winning some games. Instead, they go with someone else, who should be third in line to replace someone right now.

I figure it's 50/50 that Pelfrey is re-signed by the Twins.  I also believe that May will be moved to the bullpen for '16 and beyond. May can complain, but he has negligible leverage.  I think Nolasco will be better than most think so now.  He has ditched "the cutter" and returned to a curveball and will have a much better OF than he had before his injury.  Ace? Of course NOT!  But a lot like what he was before becoming a Twin.  Berrios will spend more time in the minors to "extend team control" as well as get more "seasoning".

[Mike Sixel]

 

They will never trade Dozier as long as they can continue to convince fans that he's a legitimate power hitter.

 

I think Dozier is doing all the convincing.......he's an awesome player right now. Is that even up for debate?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't disagree that Smith further bungled the hand he was dealt, but Ryan's refusal to do anything the year prior destroyed all leverage and crippled our options.

See above.  Leverage was not destroyed and options weren't crippled.

 

The 2008 Twins could have signed Mike Cameron to replace Torii (Cameron signed a one-year deal for $2 mil more than Livan Hernandez, with Milwaukee of all places), and held on to Johan in lieu of an overwhelming offer while we presumably contended in 2008 for the 8th consecutive season.

 

There's really no valid justification for Smith's first offseason that offloads even a shred of blame onto TR.

 

EDIT TO ADD: except the obvious, that TR picked/allowed Smith to be his replacement.  And presumably didn't stick his head back in the office to say, "guys, what's going on here?" enough.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I figure it's 50/50 that Pelfrey is re-signed by the Twins.  I also believe that May will be moved to the bullpen for '16 and beyond. May can complain, but he has negligible leverage.  I think Nolasco will be better than most think so now.  He has ditched "the cutter" and returned to a curveball and will have a much better OF than he had before his injury.  Ace? Of course NOT!  But a lot like what he was before becoming a Twin.  Berrios will spend more time in the minors to "extend team control" as well as get more "seasoning".

 

that is one awful prediction if true......ugh.

[Mike Sixel]

 

See above.  Leverage was not destroyed and options weren't crippled.

 

The 2008 Twins could have signed Mike Cameron to replace Torii (Cameron signed a one-year deal for $2 mil more than Livan Hernandez, with Milwaukee of all places), and held on to Johan in lieu of an overwhelming offer while we presumably contended in 2008 for the 8th consecutive season.

 

There's really no valid justification for Smith's first offseason that offloads even a shred of blame onto TR.

 

Lots and lots of people disagree with that last sentence. TR messed it up greatly, and quit, hand picking Smith to succeed him. Lots of that off season is on TR, imo.

[nokomismod]

They will never trade Dozier as long as they can continue to convince fans that he's a legitimate power hitter.

I think you are right because Dozier's is currently being marketed as the star of the team. He is a good player, but not a guy that a great team is built around. He is also at a position of flexibility (more so than 3rd base I'd argue).

 

I'm not trying to be rankle people with Dozier/Plouffe talk, but trying to think of options to make room for guys like Kepler.

[nokomismod]

Because Pelfrey already refused to move to the bullpen. Why sign him to start, with the massive list of better alternatives?

Massive list? Do you mean May and Berrios? Anyone else? We hope Berrios will be a top of the rotation guy, and May will still get his chance. Maybe you are right and Nolasco will be back, Santana, Hughes, and Gibson will all be healthy, leaving the Twins with a plethora of SP options, but I would at least have the conversation with Pelfrey (let him compete for a starting role and accept bullpen role with a positive attitude if he is bested).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Lots and lots of people disagree with that last sentence. TR messed it up greatly, and quit, hand picking Smith to succeed him. Lots of that off season is on TR, imo.

I edited my post to clarify that beyond picking Smith as his successor, and maybe not being more involved in the transition, there really isn't any blame to be had for TR that winter.  He left Smith with one fairly standard decision (trade Santana or ride him out), and the same basic roster that was competitive the previous few seasons with the addition of one new hole in CF.  It wasn't remotely a mess or a difficult situation, as some have claimed.

[Loosey]

 

I think you are right because Dozier's is currently being marketed as the star of the team. He is a good player, but not a guy that a great team is built around. He is also at a position of flexibility (more so than 3rd base I'd argue).

I'm not trying to be rankle people with Dozier/Plouffe talk, but trying to think of options to make room for guys like Kepler.

Who would you market as the star of the team if not Dozier?  He is having a fantastic season coming off of a really good season.  He hits for power at a position not known for power.  I think he deserves to be "marketed" as a star.  I also think his play on the field is what makes him a star more than team marketing.

[drjim]

 

I edited my post to clarify that beyond picking Smith as his successor, and maybe not being more involved in the transition, there really isn't any blame to be had for TR that winter.  He left Smith with one fairly standard decision (trade Santana or ride him out), and the same basic roster that was competitive the previous few seasons with the addition of one new hole in CF.  It wasn't remotely a mess or a difficult situation, as some have claimed.

 

It was a bad place to leave a successor. The team wasn't in shambles, probably due for a dip for a year or two, but nothing overwhelming. The big issue was that the changes involved two of the best players in the history of the franchise, not exactly setting Smith up for success or fan goodwill out of the gate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It was a bad place to leave a successor. The team wasn't in shambles, probably due for a dip for a year or two, but nothing overwhelming. The big issue was that the changes involved two of the best players in the history of the franchise, not exactly setting Smith up for success or fan goodwill out of the gate.

Hunter was a 110 OPS+ hitter the previous 7 seasons.  Tough player to lose in CF, but nothing that required franchise-altering moves to adjust for.  Mike Cameron had a 112 OPS+ over the same time frame, and signed a 1 year $7 mil deal (with team option!) with a small market team in a roofed stadium about 300 miles from Minneapolis.  Given the contract he received, letting Hunter walk and collecting two draft picks was the smart move.

 

And there was no change necessary involved with Johan.  He was still under contract for another season.  Hell, just keep him OR Garza, and there's no need to sign Livan and you've already covered over 70% of Cameron's salary.  (Keep Bartlett too, and Adam Everett's salary covers more than the rest of the difference.)

 

The situation wasn't the problem.  The problem was Smith and his extreme over-reaction to the situation (a theme which would re-occur later in Smith's tenure).

[nokomismod]

Who would you market as the star of the team if not Dozier?  He is having a fantastic season coming off of a really good season.  He hits for power at a position not known for power.  I think he deserves to be "marketed" as a star.  I also think his play on the field is what makes him a star more than team marketing.

He is the best option right now. He is having a good season (very good compared to the rest of the offense). I'm definitely in the minority here and maybe even the only one on the board that would consider trading him. I think his value would be high in the off season, he could return some good talent, and there are some talented options to slide over to 2B.

[Vanimal46]

 

Hunter was a 110 OPS+ hitter the previous 7 seasons.  Tough player to lose in CF, but nothing that required franchise-altering moves to adjust for.  Mike Cameron had a 112 OPS+ over the same time frame, and signed a 1 year $7 mil deal (with team option!) with a small market team in a roofed stadium about 300 miles from Minneapolis.  Given the contract he received, letting Hunter walk and collecting two draft picks was the smart move.

 

And there was no change necessary involved with Johan.  He was still under contract for another season.  Hell, just keep him OR Garza, and there's no need to sign Livan and you've already covered over 70% of Cameron's salary.  (Keep Bartlett too, and Adam Everett's salary covers more than the rest of the difference.)

 

The situation wasn't the problem.  The problem was Smith and his extreme over-reaction to the situation (a theme which would re-occur later in Smith's tenure).

 

 

I think you're downplaying the whole situation with Johan. The Twins were in no position to offer him the money he commanded in the open market. If they would have let him play out that season and let him walk in FA, the Metrodome would have been burned to the ground. The Twins were in a lose-lose situation, knowing the best SP in team history had one foot out the door. In a critical time in franchise history, TR, the savvy veteran GM decided to hand over the keys to a 1st time GM? 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I edited my post to clarify that beyond picking Smith as his successor, and maybe not being more involved in the transition, there really isn't any blame to be had for TR that winter.  He left Smith with one fairly standard decision (trade Santana or ride him out), and the same basic roster that was competitive the previous few seasons with the addition of one new hole in CF.  It wasn't remotely a mess or a difficult situation, as some have claimed.

 

Except the largest paragraph in that post is the giant indictment of Ryan that all of us are talking about.  When you take a deadline, an offseason, and a year of control away from a scenario in which you may trade one of the best pitchers at the time - I don't see how on earth you haven't done serious damage to your position to trade.

 

That's the point, Ryan dragging his feet on things took away time and opportunity. (the two most precious elements to a good trade)  We can say that regardless of the choice Smith ultimately made, but it would have been a far stronger position to deal from earlier with more leverage and time to choose.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think you're downplaying the whole situation with Johan. The Twins were in no position to offer him the money he commanded in the open market. If they would have let him play out that season and let him walk in FA, the Metrodome would have been burned to the ground. The Twins were in a lose-lose situation, knowing the best SP in team history had one foot out the door. In a critical time in franchise history, TR, the savvy veteran GM decided to hand over the keys to a 1st time GM?

 

Just like the Metrodome burned when Torii left? Sure, it would have been bad PR, but you're exagerrating the effects of not trading him.

[Zachary]

If that were the case with Ryan and we knew that for sure if he were to come out and say those words exactly "I don't like the trade negotiation process which is why I don't do it" then that would make me really mad. It's like he knows how he could do his job better but elects not to. 

 

Banking on the farm system to eventually come through was okay when the season started. Day 1. That's because the Twins were at the very bottom of the barrel. 

 

The point of the game this year is to the win the World Series...this year. The goal isn't to win the next five years. Yeah, that would be great. But ultimately, it is always to win this year. When you are on the cusp of being in the playoffs, you buy in to that. Get in the playoffs and anything could happen. 

 

What's the fun in "Yeah..well.. we have some major holes and there are players available to fill those holes.. but the World Series? Pipe dream. Let's play it safe and hold on to our prospects and bench players." 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Except the largest paragraph in that post is the giant indictment of Ryan that all of us are talking about. When you take a deadline, an offseason, and a year of control away from a scenario in which you may trade one of the best pitchers at the time - I don't see how on earth you haven't done serious damage to your position to trade.

 

That's the point, Ryan dragging his feet on things took away time and opportunity. (the two most precious elements to a good trade) We can say that regardless of the choice Smith ultimately made, but it would have been a far stronger position to deal from earlier with more leverage and time to choose.

That is all assuming we had to deal him. We didn't. Besides, I am not sure the second year of control would have been a huge boost to his value. For instance, I don't see many differences in the Cliff Lee trade returns with 1.5, 1, or 0.5 years remaining. Also deadline rentals back then still returned 2 comp picks to the acquiring team, so the off season was never that critical of a decision point.

 

If TR had stayed GM, I doubt that offseason would be remembered in the least. He would have replaced Hunter affordably, and held on to Santana, Garza, and Bartlett as we made another run for the division title in 2008.

 

The situation wasn't the problem. The problem was he let the inmates (Smith with help from Gardy and Andy) run the asylum.

[TheLeviathan]

You're too stuck on Smiths actions. Leaving those contract situations hanging, low balling them when you did, and causing your best players to become disgruntled about their situations and then resigning at the moment those choices came to a head was absolutely mismanagement. How his successor acted is, IMO, directly related to the situation left to him.

[howeda7]

If he pitches well and we're still in the race, we're not going to trade him. That would be dumb. If he pitches poorly, we'll likely be out of the race, and no one will offer squat for him.

A 1,000 times NO.  He gets TRADED.  His contract is up at the end of the year and the Twins are in desperate need of talent.

 

[howeda7]

TR gets way too big a pass, and Bill Smith gets way too much blame. There's not a big difference between them at all, IMO. Terry Ryan has a better eye for young talent. Bill was more trusting of his assistants and at least wasn't too scared of his own shadow to make moves, even if they didn't work out.

 

 

You're too stuck on Smiths actions. Leaving those contract situations hanging, low balling them when you did, and causing your best players to become disgruntled about their situations and then resigning at the moment those choices came to a head was absolutely mismanagement. How his successor acted is, IMO, directly related to the situation left to him.

 

[Rosterman]

It will be interesting to see, come January, how many players the Twins part company with since the end of spring training 2015. And that they ended up getting nothing in return. Becuase they are free agents, not offered new contracts, become minor league free agents, don't have a roster spot in the organization. And then we add up the total worth of these players and ask (1) why no otehr team would want them and (2) why the Twins kept them around for this past season and accomplished with that player playing, or rpeventing anotehr player from playing.

[HitInAPinch]

 

If he pitches well and we're still in the race, we're not going to trade him. That would be dumb. If he pitches poorly, we'll likely be out of the race, and no one will offer squat for him.

Trading a pitcher who is pitching well is the only way to trade a pitcher.  Overrating the Twins chances of being in the playoffs is dumb.