Duffey Called Up; Milone to the DL

Mike Sixel · August 2, 2015

If only Duffey had been available to come up before.......and pitch either out of the pen or rotation. Not that anyone suggested that........ Baffled how they are treating May here.

Where are all the people that said this was temporary?

SwainZag · August 3, 2015

If only Duffey had been available to come up before.......and pitch either out of the pen or rotation. Not that anyone suggested that........ Baffled how they are treating May here.

Where are all the people that said this was temporary?

Twins came out today and said he wasn't stretched out and didn't want to waste a day of the Toronto series for a bullpen day.

Mike Sixel · August 3, 2015

Twins came out today and said he wasn't stretched out and didn't want to waste a day of the Toronto series for a bullpen day.

So it will be one start? And whose fault is it May isn't stretched out? Always an excuse for a bad decision.

Seth Stohs · August 3, 2015

Great news on Duffy. May cant be a happy camper

May is fine, and frankly, right now, he's the one guy in the bullpen that can be counted on.

Riverbrian · August 3, 2015

To paraphrase Harrison Ford:

How dare YOU, Sirs!

Even if it isn't about May, it should be. May is already "looking good" and already "gotten a look" and already proven that "he can help."

But... What if the Twins were easing May into a bullpen role and May is now starting to prove that he can help solidify the bullpen so the Twins don't want to move him back with Milone out for a minimum DL stay only to move him back again when Milone returns.

We need the bullpen help more than we need SP's right now. May has the stuff to be that bullpen guy and Duffey looks like he's getting some things done based on his stats in Rochester.

I think May has been talked to by Molitor... I think May knows the plan and is hopefully willing to help the Twins in anyway he is asked to.

glunn · August 3, 2015

But... What if the Twins were easing May into a bullpen role and May is now starting to prove that he can help solidify the bullpen so the Twins don't want to move him back with Milone out for a minimum DL stay only to move him back again when Milone returns.

We need the bullpen help more than we need SP's right now. May has the stuff to be that bullpen guy and Duffey looks like he's getting some things done based on his stats in Rochester.

I think May has been talked to by Molitor... I think May knows the plan and is hopefully willing to help the Twins in anyway he is asked to.

If we could clone May, then I would want 2 of him as starters and 2 of him as relievers. He seems to have great potential in both areas and who knows what the Twins will need most if they can continue to contend.

SwainZag · August 3, 2015

So it will be one start? And whose fault is it May isn't stretched out? Always an excuse for a bad decision.

I'm just forwarding on information. If Duffey comes out and throws a quality start is it still a bad decision?

beckmt · August 3, 2015

May is fine, and frankly, right now, he's the one guy in the bullpen that can be counted on.

Thanks for saying this. May probably will turn into the 8th inning guy we were hoping for with Meyers.

Jham · August 3, 2015

If only Duffey had been available to come up before.......and pitch either out of the pen or rotation. Not that anyone suggested that........ Baffled how they are treating May here.

Where are all the people that said this was temporary?

I was one that said it would be temporary. And if the bullpen weren't such a total mess, he would be taking Milone's spot. As it were, May is shining in the pen. He's throwing harder and attacking more directly. Going deep into games and conserving his energy was always his biggest knock. The guy he would have replaced in the rotation, Pelfrey, just put forth a start better than May has ever put up his whole career. 8ip on 100 pitches. Pelfrey, regardless of how many hits and runs he gives up, eats innings. He goes deep into games and manages his pitch count, saving the pen. 4 runs through seven full is better than 3 runs through 5 1/3rd the way our pen is giving it up. Innings eaters have value. May throwing 97 out of the pen has value.

jokin · August 3, 2015

But... What if the Twins were easing May into a bullpen role and May is now starting to prove that he can help solidify the bullpen so the Twins don't want to move him back with Milone out for a minimum DL stay only to move him back again when Milone returns.

We need the bullpen help more than we need SP's right now. May has the stuff to be that bullpen guy and Duffey looks like he's getting some things done based on his stats in Rochester.

I think May has been talked to by Molitor... I think May knows the plan and is hopefully willing to help the Twins in anyway he is asked to.

I'm sure he's been talked to, but Molitor showed his hand early on when May was moved out of the rotation; when questioned by reporters, he said that keeping him in a limbo role- aka "The Plan"- with the Twins won out over sending him down and continuing to start him in the AAA rotation. May no doubt is a good soldier, but I have to think his head was spinning when he got his talking to. He led all starters in fWAR for the month of April, as well as for the months of May and June combined... and he was actually getting better from mid-May until his demotion after his start on July 1 (*** check the stats on his last 9 starts below).

I was one that said it would be temporary. And if the bullpen weren't such a total mess, he would be taking Milone's spot. As it were, May is shining in the pen. He's throwing harder and attacking more directly. Going deep into games and conserving his energy was always his biggest knock. The guy he would have replaced in the rotation, Pelfrey, just put forth a start better than May has ever put up his whole career. 8ip on 100 pitches. Pelfrey, regardless of how many hits and runs he gives up, eats innings. He goes deep into games and manages his pitch count, saving the pen. 4 runs through seven full is better than 3 runs through 5 1/3rd the way our pen is giving it up. Innings eaters have value. May throwing 97 out of the pen has value.

I'm sorry, but the stats just don't back up your claims here, whatsoever.

Before today's game, SP comps:

Pelfrey eats up innings

Pelfrey- 5.8 IP/Start May- 5.4 IP/Start

Pelfrey manages his pitch count

Pelfrey- 91.2 Pitches/gm 63.4% Str% May- 86.4 Pitches/gm 66.2% Str%

May is shining in the pen

Yes, but in 10 relief appearances, he's pitched in 2 high lev situations and 0 medium lev. His velocity is up but his K/9 and K% are actually lower than when he was a starter.

Pelfrey eats up innings Pt. 2

In his last 9 starts, counting Sunday's 8 IP effort, Pelfrey has gone 7 or 8 IP a grand total of THREE TIMES.

In his last 9 starts, May went 7 IP a grand total of THREE TIMES (OK, one of those 3 was 6.2 IP)

***May is shining in the pen Pt 2 (but he was also shining in the rotation, and had improved quite a bit on his season's stats previous to that point in time [May 16- July 1])

In his last 9 starts, May averaged 5.6 IP. K/9 8.40 BB/9 1.79 ERA/FIP/xFIP 3.75/3.23/3.62

In his last 9 starts, Pelfrey avrgd. 5.7 IP. K/9 4.56 BB/9 2.98 ERA/FIP/xFIP 5.44/4.70/4.45

May throwing 97 out of the pen has value.

Comp above to May's first 9 relief apprncs K/9 6.97 BB/9 1.74 ERA/FIP/xFIP 3.48/3.67/4.60

Conclusions:

1) When strcitly comping the stats for the 2, Pelfrey was/is clearly the inferior choice to start, and he doesn't significantly eat more innings.

2) May's peripherals demonstrated that he has actually been less effective in a relief role than as a starter, and obviously, he hasn't been able to help the team in his current evolving role nearly as much as he did through July 1 in his previous role.

3) The Twins, instead of putting May into a limbo role, needed to bolster their bullpen, before the AS break- from outside the organization or from the minors, or both.

Riverbrian · August 3, 2015

Conclusions:

1) When strcitly comping the stats for the 2, Pelfrey was/is clearly the inferior choice to start, and he doesn't significantly eat more innings.
2) May's peripherals demonstrated that he has actually been less effective in a relief role than as a starter, and obviously, he hasn't been able to help the team in his current evolving role nearly as much as he did through July 1 in his previous role.
3) The Twins, instead of putting May into a limbo role, needed to bolster their bullpen, before the AS break- from outside the organization or from the minors, or both.

1. If I agree that May is the better choice to start between the two ( and I do). Can you agree that the gap between the two isn't Kershaw/Happ esque?

2. If I agree that May has been less effective in a relief role thus far (and I do). Can you agree that it's a real small sample size and it doesn't mean that it will stay that way as more data rolls in?

3. I simply agree here... I was hoping for more/better bullpen help then what we got. But Jepsen and May is bullpen help that we didn't have before Ervin Santana got un-suspended.

All reports had the Twins looking for guys with K ability at the trade deadline. Pelfrey in the pen doesn't fit that mold and I don't think Pelfrey should be simply cut because we all of a sudden have two many SP's. Pelfrey hasn't been horrible. None of our starters have been horrible. We all know what horrible looks like... just think back to 2014 and 2013 and 2012 and 2011.

Blackjack · August 3, 2015

May is fine, and frankly, right now, he's the one guy in the bullpen that can be counted on.

Exactly!! Twins need bullpen help, posters here have been clamoring for it, May will fill the need while they are contending. The Twins have lots of other starters, and If the Twins fade out of contention May can be moved back to starting in Sept. or in spring training. It won't hurt him in the long term to be in the pen.

nicksaviking · August 3, 2015

Thanks for saying this. May probably will turn into the 8th inning guy we were hoping for with Meyers.

I think most of us were hoping that Meyer and May would actually turn out to lead the rotation.

jorgenswest · August 3, 2015

In 2012 the Twins drafted a bunch of college relievers with the intention of finding starting pitchers. Duffey was one of them sharing the closing duties with Chargios at Rice. I thought and probably said at the time that the Twins would not get a single major league start from this group of relievers.

Happily hoping Duffey continues to prove me wrong.

dougkoebernick · August 3, 2015

Also possible that the Twins prefer a temporary LHP to start in the near future;
or
they don't want to keep jerking May around between the rotation and the bullpen.

Bingo

Otto von Ballpark · August 3, 2015

It won't hurt him in the long term to be in the pen.

Generally I agree, but it's weird how the cloud of being a good reliever can hang over a pitcher. I could see May moved back to the pen prematurely in 2016, or kept in the pen beyond 2015 (long enough to impact him long-term) just because we refuse to get better bullpen alternatives.

Otto von Ballpark · August 3, 2015

they don't want to keep jerking May around between the rotation and the bullpen.

Because MLB debuting Duffey, then having Milone work his way back from injury, is a much better way to use that rotation spot in a MLB pennant race?

Another reason we should have acquired another/better bullpen arm: our rotation isn't that deep/strong at the moment if May isn't an option (or Berrios).

tobi0040 · August 3, 2015

The issue for me is that since he went to the pen, May has pitched 11.1 innings in basically a month. Pelfrey has had 31 IP and now Duffey in two turns will have had as many innings as May.

Really a poor use of resources. May is a top five starter on this team right now and next year. That should lock in his rotation spot.

Otto von Ballpark · August 3, 2015

The issue for me is that since he went to the pen, May has pitched 11.1 innings in basically a month. Pelfrey has had 31 IP and now Duffey in two turns will have had as many innings as May.

Really a poor use of resources. May is a top five starter on this team right now and next year. That should lock in his rotation spot.

Yup. And we're going to give several starts to Duffey almost regardless of his performance (there's no other starter on the 40-man other than May), and then we're probably going to let Milone come off a DL stint directly back to the MLB rotation (and perhaps before he's ready, if we are in a rush to replace Duffey).

All in a pennant race, and all apparently because of our reticence to take on salary or part with Hu-level prospects during said pennant race in July...

tobi0040 · August 3, 2015

Yup. And we're going to give several starts to Duffey almost regardless of his performance (there's no other starter on the 40-man other than May), and then we're probably going to let Milone come off a DL stint directly back to the MLB rotation (and perhaps before he's ready, if we are in a rush to replace Duffey).

All in a pennant race, and all apparently because of our reticence to take on salary or part with Hu-level prospects during said pennant race in July...

It is really mind boggling as you mention, the whole pennant race thing.

I get not signing the one guy from 2011 to 2014 or being very active in the deadline during that period. I even understand why they left older veterans in a bit because they weren't really blocking young players that were both talented and ready, they were embarrassed by the play on the field and wanted to stop bleeding. But right now? Pelfrey is in the rotation over May or Berrios. Hunter is a few weeks away from blocking one of Hicks/Rosario/Buxton. Arcia too. We have at least 1-3 guys in the Rochester pen that would have to put up the numbers Duensing is putting up.

Just seems like we can't get out of limbo, we are not in and we are not out. And I fully supported not giving up top prospects this year. But we just have so many guys on this team not helping us this year or next year.

Blackjack · August 3, 2015

Generally I agree, but it's weird how the cloud of being a good reliever can hang over a pitcher. I could see May moved back to the pen prematurely in 2016, or kept in the pen beyond 2015 (long enough to impact him long-term) just because we refuse to get better bullpen alternatives.

The one getting hurt the most by this would be May because it means the difference between a $4 million dollar salary as a reliever and a $14 million dollar salary some day as a starter. But if the Twins have plenty of other starting options and May becomes a shutdown reliever, and thats where they need him, too bad so sad Mr. May, you are now a reliever.

Otto von Ballpark · August 3, 2015

The one getting hurt the most by this would be May because it means the difference between a $4 million dollar salary as a reliever and a $14 million dollar salary some day as a starter. But if the Twins have plenty of other starting options and May becomes a shutdown reliever, and thats where they need him, too bad so sad Mr. May, you are now a reliever.

The Twins could easily be hurt by such a decision too. To use your example numbers, if May is good enough to be a $14 million starter, but we're using him to fill the spot of a $4 mil reliever, that's a lot of excess value we are leaving on the table.

We'll have other starting options, but it's highly questionable whether there will be five better than May. And just keeping extra starters and starting prospects for depth, in the event that May is needed in the pen, will have a cost. From re-signing Pelfrey with money that could instead be used on a reliever like Neshek, or passing on a trade of Milone, or protecting untested arms like Duffey, Rogers, etc.

And May's success in the pen may lead to us being even less aggressive on the FA relief market than we were in the July trade market, regardless of whether our team would be better with May starting and a FA reliever added to the pen.

May being a bullpen weapon certainly has some upside. But I'm not sure I trust TR to properly use it as an option to improve the team overall, rather than as an excuse to avoid making certain improvements.

tobi0040 · August 3, 2015

The Twins could easily be hurt by such a decision too. To use your example numbers, if May is good enough to be a $14 million starter, but we're using him to fill the spot of a $4 mil reliever, that's a lot of excess value we are leaving on the table.

We'll have other starting options, but it's highly questionable whether there will be five better than May. And just keeping extra starters and starting prospects for depth, in the event that May is needed in the pen, will have a cost. From re-signing Pelfrey with money that could instead be used on a reliever like Neshek, or passing on a trade of Milone, or protecting untested arms like Duffey, Rogers, etc.

And May's success in the pen may lead to us being even less aggressive on the FA relief market than we were in the July trade market, regardless of whether our team would be better with May starting and a FA reliever added to the pen.

May being a bullpen weapon certainly has some upside. But I'm not sure I trust TR to properly use it as an option to improve the team overall, rather than as an excuse to avoid making certain improvements.

Spot on.

200 IP starter vs. 60 IP reliever. A ton of value left on the table. I only really support the starter to reliever move when a guy is shown to be much better out of the pen. Perkins is one example of that. Wade Davis is another. In my opinion May has the chance to be a much better starter than those guys were. For one, those guys needed a velo boost in order to be successful in the pen. May has enough velocity as a starter.

Otto von Ballpark · August 3, 2015

Yankees called up Luis Severino, who has been neck-and-neck with Berrios in age, level, and prospect rankings, to start Wednesday, the same day that Duffey is now scheduled.

I guess the Yankees did let a lesser guy get a spot start first after Pineda's injury, although that other guy was also already on the 40-man roster and had already burned his option this year. I somehow doubt the Twins plan on a similar one & done for Duffey.

bird · August 3, 2015

I am certainly interested in some day hearing what the hell they were thinking with May this year.

And Arcia for that matter.

But, but....that would require an industrious beat writer who wasn't afraid to press a little for answers to challenging questions.

tobi0040 · August 3, 2015

But, but....that would require an industrious beat writer who wasn't afraid to press a little for answers to challenging questions.

Yeah. A real tricky one like do you think Mike Pelfrey is better than Trevor May? Or, you aren't really thinking of extending Mike Pelfrey are you? If not, why not give the reps to a guy that will be on the team next year, younger, with more upside?

I almost wonder if the kid gloves approach is because the Twins lash out and restrict access to writers that will challenge them (more so than other teams). Maybe it is just a MN nice thing.

I think the real reason Peflrey is still here and in the rotation is because he is pitching OK and that makes the contract TR gave him look less bad.

Blackjack · August 3, 2015

The Twins could easily be hurt by such a decision too. To use your example numbers, if May is good enough to be a $14 million starter, but we're using him to fill the spot of a $4 mil reliever, that's a lot of excess value we are leaving on the table.

We'll have other starting options, but it's highly questionable whether there will be five better than May. And just keeping extra starters and starting prospects for depth, in the event that May is needed in the pen, will have a cost. From re-signing Pelfrey with money that could instead be used on a reliever like Neshek, or passing on a trade of Milone, or protecting untested arms like Duffey, Rogers, etc.

And May's success in the pen may lead to us being even less aggressive on the FA relief market than we were in the July trade market, regardless of whether our team would be better with May starting and a FA reliever added to the pen.

May being a bullpen weapon certainly has some upside. But I'm not sure I trust TR to properly use it as an option to improve the team overall, rather than as an excuse to avoid making certain improvements.

You can't have your cake and eat it too. Veteran starters were signed to stop the losing/bleeding. Young starters get 'blocked'. Someone needs to get sacrificed, in this case May. It won't hurt him to spend a month or a year or two in the bullpen. Players transition back and forth from starting to relieving all the time.

For the Twins its like a having a piggy bank in the bullpen, they can always break it open any time. Plus they need help NOW in the bullpen (fixing a popular TD complaint). Plus they get to use/try out one of their young starters. Win, win, win for the Twins.

Otto von Ballpark · August 3, 2015

You can't have your cake and eat it too. Veteran starters were signed to stop the losing/bleeding. Young starters get 'blocked'. Someone needs to get sacrificed, in this case May. It won't hurt him to spend a month or a year or two in the bullpen. Players transition back and forth from starting to relieving all the time.

In the short term (i.e. this year), fine. But if May spends two *years* in the bullpen before his next attempt at starting, I am pretty confident that the Twins will be fielding a sub-optimal roster over that time for the reasons I've laid out above.

tobi0040 · August 3, 2015

You can't have your cake and eat it too. Veteran starters were signed to stop the losing/bleeding. Young starters get 'blocked'. Someone needs to get sacrificed, in this case May. It won't hurt him to spend a month or a year or two in the bullpen. Players transition back and forth from starting to relieving all the time.

For the Twins its like a having a piggy bank in the bullpen, they can always break it open any time. Plus they need help NOW in the bullpen (fixing a popular TD complaint). Plus they get to use/try out one of their young starters. Win, win, win for the Twins.

I find two issues with this. Why can't the almost 32 year old starter who has 2 months left on his contract be the one that is sacrificed? As a team you make the call as to who is the best player, now and in the future. Sometimes it is a tougher call, like when you have a guy for 2 years and 2 months like Nolasco. But when you have a guy with two months left it should be a no brainer.

The other issue is the second May became a non-long reliever, you can't open it at any time.

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