Trade Target Joaquin Benoit

[drjim]

 

When people (like you) say he's been damn good for several years, it's not at all ridiculous to point out the difference between what he used to be, and what he now is.  I reference his career year to show that he's not what he used to be.  If you don't want to argue about the past, then let's just argue about this year; do you really want to trade for a guy who's bottom quartile in FIP, strikes out less than 1/IP, walks more than 3/9, AND is only getting by on the back of a ridiculous BABIP?

 

As for your proposed return for the other options, you are wildly overstating what a team who is honestly willing to trade a player would look for from a middle reliever.  We got Milone for Fuld straight up, and Milone was far more valuable than a middle reliever.  Here's some other deals that involved relief pitchers last year;

 

The Orioles got Andrew Miller (who was/is a stud) for Eduardo Rodriguez, who was striking out 7.5/9 with a 3.5 FIP in AA.

 

The Braves got James Russell  AND Emilio Bonifacio for a catcher who was in his first full season of A ball

 

The Tigers got Soria for Jake Thompson (who was released at the end of the year and is currently out of baseball), and Cory Knebel, who was walking 4.4/9 in AAA.

 

All of those relievers had better numbers last year than Benoit does this year, and I would argue that the return was less than or equal to Taylor Rogers and a redundant prospect we could throw in if needed.  Offer Rogers and say Vielma/Kanzler, and that should be enough to get any of the pitchers listed above.

 

Thanks for bringing some sanity to what it will actually take to get a reliever this year.

 

Makes sense for the Twins to get one or two.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Everyone on that list is almost certainly more expensive than Benoit right now, some significantly so.

 

Ramos and the two Smiths are all making the league minimum and are team controlled for 3+ more seasons beyond this year -- very little motivation for their teams to trade them.

 

Grilli, Uehara, and Papelbon are all closers controlled beyond 2015.

 

Lowe is a pending free agent, but he's also making the league minimum.

 

Benoit is not perfect, but his team also has the most incentive to try to move him *right now* (and not wait until July 31st either).

 

There's actually plenty of room in our pen to take a cash flyer on Benoit and still try to swing a favorable deal for one of these other guys.  I just don't want to do nothing until July 31st and potentially get zero external upgrades, or overpay for one of those upgrades on July 31st, which is a very real risk for your proposed method.

 

When I said more expensive I was referring to salary, not acquisition cost.  That being said, yes, it would take more to acquire all those players, because they're better.

 

For Ramos and the Smiths, offer Rogers.  He offers 6 years of control, also at league minimum, and is a starter.  For teams out of the race, like the Marlins, Brewers, and Mariners are, that's a trade they'll make.

 

Atlanta would probably also take Rogers for Grilli, since Grilli is 38, and a closer is completely unnecessary on a non-contending team.  Ditto Boston, who also could use additional starting pitching options.

 

Papelbon is probably the most likely to be traded, as he only needs to finish 19 more games this year to vest his $13m salary for next year, which I assume the Phillies are not interested in.  If they can pick up a lefty AAA starter, while ensuring they don't have to pay Papelbon next year, that's a win-win.  It's good for the Twins too, as there's no way he finishes 19 games for us, thus we can either let him walk, or try to re-sign him, all for the price of a prospect who's unlikely to play much of a role for us ever.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When I said more expensive I was referring to salary, not acquisition cost.  That being said, yes, it would take more to acquire all those players, because they're better.

 

For Ramos and the Smiths, offer Rogers.  He offers 6 years of control, also at league minimum, and is a starter.  For teams out of the race, like the Marlins, Brewers, and Mariners are, that's a trade they'll make.

 

Atlanta would probably also take Rogers for Grilli, since Grilli is 38, and a closer is completely unnecessary on a non-contending team.  Ditto Boston, who also could use additional starting pitching options.

 

Papelbon is probably the most likely to be traded, as he only needs to finish 19 more games this year to vest his $13m salary for next year, which I assume the Phillies are not interested in.  If they can pick up a lefty AAA starter, while ensuring they don't have to pay Papelbon next year, that's a win-win.  It's good for the Twins too, as there's no way he finishes 19 games for us, thus we can either let him walk, or try to re-sign him, all for the price of a prospect who's unlikely to play much of a role for us ever.

Taylor Rogers is your answer here?  A guy many are comparing to Sean Gilmartin, who was traded for the empty shell of Ryan Doumit and then became a Rule 5 pick?  In return for a dominant closer / set-up man, all except Lowe offering multiple years of team control at sometimes bargain rates?

 

No wonder you have no interest in Benoit -- you also seem to have no interest in realistic trade proposals.  I am surprised you didn't also suggest throwing in Duensing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Orioles got Andrew Miller (who was/is a stud) for Eduardo Rodriguez, who was striking out 7.5/9 with a 3.5 FIP in AA.

 

The Braves got James Russell  AND Emilio Bonifacio for a catcher who was in his first full season of A ball

 

The Tigers got Soria for Jake Thompson (who was released at the end of the year and is currently out of baseball), and Cory Knebel, who was walking 4.4/9 in AAA.

Wrong Jake Thompson.  The one the Rangers got was BA's #43 prospect this season.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez was BA's #65 prospect entering 2014 before the trade, and #59 entering 2015 just after the trade.

 

These guys were not Taylor Rogers.

 

And James Russell is a LOOGY with a career 6.6 K/9.  He's more like Brian Duensing than any of the trade targets you've suggested.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, not sure this can go much farther when Taylor Rogers can acquire Carson Smith.

 

That's just not going to happen.

[drjim]

 

Wrong Jake Thompson.  The one the Rangers got was BA's #43 prospect this season.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez was BA's #65 prospect entering 2014 before the trade, and #59 entering 2015 just after the trade.

 

These guys were not Taylor Rogers.

 

And James Russell is a LOOGY with a career 6.6 K/9.  He's more like Brian Duensing than any of the trade targets you've suggested.

 

But Benoit is also not Miller or Soria. That would be my point.

 

And I would add that both those guys jumped in rankings after the trade and doesn't necessarily reflect the reality at the time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But Benoit is also not Miller or Soria. That would be my point.

 

And I would add that both those guys jumped in rankings after the trade and doesn't necessarily reflect the reality at the time.

I agree with you.  Benoit should be cheaper.  I am refuting the other poster who claims we should pass on Benoit at any price and pursue a better arm, because the better arms won't come cheap.  They will be more like Miller or Soria returns, if they are moved at all.

 

Thompson's ranking jumped, but he was a 2012 draftee who had already debuted in AA at age 20, not as good but on a similar path as Berrios.  His ranking was going to jump regardless of what organization he was in.  And Rodriguez's ranking mostly held constant before and after the trade.

 

Point is, it's going to take a prospect at that level, with that kind of potential, to land one of the top tier relievers.  NOT Taylor Rogers.

[drjim]

 

I agree with you.  Benoit should be cheaper.  I am refuting the other poster who claims we should pass on Benoit at any price and pursue a better arm, because the better arms won't come cheap.  They will be more like Miller or Soria returns, if they are moved at all.

 

Thompson's ranking jumped, but he was a 2012 draftee who had already debuted in AA at age 20, not as good but on a similar path as Berrios.  His ranking was going to jump regardless of what organization he was in.  And Rodriguez's ranking mostly held constant before and after the trade.

 

Point is, it's going to take a prospect at that level, with that kind of potential, to land one of the top tier relievers.  NOT Taylor Rogers.

 

This I agree, I should have read your exchange closer. I personally do not think they should go in heavy for an elite relief arm, but should go lighter for a solid arm (like Benoit or Smith) and hope he can be effective for 3 months.

[jorgenswest]

It took a Berrios level prospect to get Miller and Soria. Benoit will be less but it isn't going to drop from top 50 prospect to C prospect or package of C prospects/ bench guys. You can't get a good 8th inning guy cheap. If Benoit is that guy, expect to pay. If he is cheap, he isn't seen by other teams as a good late inning guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Any move now will certainly be expensive in cost. The Padres have time to wait for a better deal. The Twins can also wait out the market and see who is left on the 31st.

I think the Padres might be inclined to try moving Benoit ahead of the market.  It seems they need him less and owe him more than a lot of the other teams and names suggested.

 

If we could swing a Benoit now (who might come for a Taylor Rogers type), we could still try to work a deal for another reliever.  And it would reduce the odds that we get shut out come August 1st.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Taylor Rogers is your answer here?  A guy many are comparing to Sean Gilmartin, who was traded for the empty shell of Ryan Doumit and then became a Rule 5 pick?  In return for a dominant closer / set-up man, all except Lowe offering multiple years of team control at sometimes bargain rates?

 

No wonder you have no interest in Benoit -- you also seem to have no interest in realistic trade proposals.  I am surprised you didn't also suggest throwing in Duensing.

 

This is the same Gilmartin who currently has a 3.23 FIP with the Mets in his first taste of the bigs right?  TR fleeced the Braves in that one, and I fail to see why a rebuilding team wouldn't be interested in flipping an unnecessary bullpen piece for a potential lefty starter, especially an NL team.  Are you telling me, if you were the GM of the Phillies, you wouldn't be ecstatic to add a 24 year old putting up a 3.27 FIP as a starter in AAA for a closer you have zero need for, and who is about 2 months away from costing you 13 million dollars for next year?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It took a Berrios level prospect to get Miller and Soria. Benoit will be less but it isn't going to drop from top 50 prospect to C prospect or package of C prospects/ bench guys. You can't get a good 8th inning guy cheap. If Benoit is that guy, expect to pay. If he is cheap, he isn't seen by other teams as a good late inning guy.

Miller was performing insanely -- 14.7 K/9.  And he got 4/36 on the free agent market without being a closer.  That's why he was expensive.

 

Soria was a longtime closer sporting a 11.3 K/9, and he was owed less than Benoit.

 

Both were much younger too.  I think Benoit could be had for significantly less -- how much less, I have no idea.  Here are Sickels preseason B-/C+ prospects who aren't on our 40-man roster:

 

 

Lewis Thorpe, LHP
Nick Burdi, RHP
Stephen Gonsalves, LHP
Travis Harrison, OF
Stuart Turner, C
Adam Brett Walker, OF
Michael Cederoth, RHP
Jake Reed, RHP
Amaurys Minier, 1B
Chih-Wei Hu, RHP
Lewin Diaz, 1B
Tyler Duffey, RHP
Mason Melotakis, LHP
Levi Michael, INF

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Are you telling me, if you were the GM of the Phillies, you wouldn't be ecstatic to add a 24 year old putting up a 3.27 FIP as a starter in AAA for a closer you have zero need for, and who is about 2 months away from costing you 13 million dollars for next year?

If I were the Phillies, no I would not be ecstatic about trading Papelbon for Taylor Rogers.

 

Think about it.  Every team in baseball has a pitcher in AAA of Rogers quality or better.  And certainly we are not the only team that would want Papelbon.  It makes no sense that the Phillies would settle for that return.  History doesn't support it, logic doesn't support it... I don't think I can continue this discussion with you.

[LaBombo]

Am all in on trading for Joaquin Benoit since running across this .gif...

 

[Mike Sixel]

I would rather they move Rogers to a RP role, and see what he can do, than deal him for an older player right now......and no, not every system is flush with Rogers' types.

[jorgenswest]

Miller was performing insanely -- 14.7 K/9. And he got 4/36 on the free agent market without being a closer. That's why he was expensive.

 

Soria was a longtime closer sporting a 11.3 K/9, and he was owed less than Benoit.

 

Both were much younger too. I think Benoit could be had for significantly less -- how much less, I have no idea. Here are Sickels preseason B-/C+ prospects who aren't on our 40-man roster:

 

 

Lewis Thorpe, LHP

Nick Burdi, RHP

Stephen Gonsalves, LHP

Travis Harrison, OF

Stuart Turner, C

Adam Brett Walker, OF

Michael Cederoth, RHP

Jake Reed, RHP

Amaurys Minier, 1B

Chih-Wei Hu, RHP

Lewin Diaz, 1B

Tyler Duffey, RHP

Mason Melotakis, LHP

Levi Michael, INF

Some would no longer be ranked that high, but it includes the two guys I originally suggested it would take in Walker or Gonsalves. Take away those that have not progressed this year and it is a good list. It would hurt to lose some of those guys. If it doesn't hurt, it won't be enough. It also won't be enough to package a group of lesser prospects.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

If I were the Phillies, no I would not be ecstatic about trading Papelbon for Taylor Rogers.

 

Think about it.  Every team in baseball has a pitcher in AAA of Rogers quality or better.  And certainly we are not the only team that would want Papelbon.  It makes no sense that the Phillies would settle for that return.  History doesn't support it, logic doesn't support it... I don't think I can continue this discussion with you.

 

Every team might have a pitcher of Rogers' caliber in AAA (I don't think they do, but that's a different argument), but how many of them are willing to give up a 24 year old AAA starter?  That's where the Twins advantage is--they can offer the Phillies immediate help that is also cheap, and subject to lots of team control.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Every team might have a pitcher of Rogers' caliber in AAA (I don't think they do, but that's a different argument), but how many of them are willing to give up a 24 year old AAA starter?  That's where the Twins advantage is--they can offer the Phillies immediate help that is also cheap, and subject to lots of team control.

Lots of teams can give up a 24 year old AAA starter with zero MLB experience and 6.3 K/9 for one of the best closers in the league.

 

Find me a player of Papelbon's quality, traded for an equivalent prospect to Rogers.

[drjim]

 

Lots of teams can give up a 24 year old AAA starter with zero MLB experience and 6.3 K/9 for one of the best closers in the league.

 

Find me a player of Papelbon's quality, traded for an equivalent prospect to Rogers.

 

If the Twins take all the money (and Papelbon waives the no trade) it wouldn't take a whole lot to get Papelbon. Probably a prospect slightly better than Rogers.

[drjim]

 

I would rather they move Rogers to a RP role, and see what he can do, than deal him for an older player right now......and no, not every system is flush with Rogers' types.

 

Do you remember the career arc of Duensing?

 

Rogers could certainly pitch in the majors, but he's a middle reliever/5 starter. Exactly the type of guy you trade for immediate help if you are in contention.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do you remember the career arc of Duensing?

 

Rogers could certainly pitch in the majors, but he's a middle reliever/5 starter. Exactly the type of guy you trade for immediate help if you are in contention.

 

I don't think they are in contention yet.....so I'd rather they see what they have, than deal it......

[70charger]

I'll readily admit to not having read any of this thread, but since I can't say his name without putting the word "balls" at the end, I'd say no. No trade.

[jorgenswest]

Papelbon needs to finish games in order for his option to vest. No way he accepts a trade to a team that plans to use him in the 8th inning.

[d-mac]

 

There are a lot of things about Ryan's work as GM that I like, but his track record at assessing/acquiring veteran pitchers is not one of them.  Have the Twins acquired ANY veteran NL pitcher in the past decade that actually worked out?

 

Jared Burton and Dennys Reyes? After that I've got nothing.

[Vanimal46]

 

Are you telling me, if you were the GM of the Phillies, you wouldn't be ecstatic to add a 24 year old putting up a 3.27 FIP as a starter in AAA for a closer you have zero need for, and who is about 2 months away from costing you 13 million dollars for next year?

 

Not sure that's going to be the best offer than Amaro sees when he fetches calls on Papelbon. The Cubbies desperately need a closer to stay in contention, and I bet his old buddy Theo Epstein would pony up to acquire him.

[d-mac]

 

Balls.

 

Nailed it.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Lots of teams can give up a 24 year old AAA starter with zero MLB experience and 6.3 K/9 for one of the best closers in the league.

 

Find me a player of Papelbon's quality, traded for an equivalent prospect to Rogers.

 

Actually, there aren't that many teams who can give up a Rogers-type pitcher.  Of qualified AAA pitchers, there are only 26 pitchers 26 or under with a sub-4 ERA.  Of those, only 11 are 24 or under.  And those 26 pitchers are controlled by only 16 teams, so half the league cannot give up a Rogers.

 

Just as important, many of the teams who CAN give up a Rogers-type, WOULDN'T give up that pitcher, especially not for Papelbon.

 

• Atlanta isn't giving up Banuelos.
• Baltimore isn't giving up Davies, and while they might part ways with Wilson or Jones, the O's bullpen is badass, so why give up young pitching for old?
• Boston isn't giving up Owens or Johnson
• The Cubs probably wouldn't give up Pimentel, and while they'd probably part with Roach, his k/9 is 3.4, so he's not too attractive of a target
• The Sox wouldn't want to give up Johnson for a half season rental
• Cleveland might give up Roth, but he's at 5.2 k/9
• KC might be willing to move Lamb or Brooks, but why would they look for bullpen help?
• Miami isn't moving Conley or Rienzo
• Milwaukee isn't moving Cravy
• The Mets aren't giving up Matz
• The Pirates might be interested in moving Boscan, but he's at 6k/9 and 4bb/9, and I doubt they'd want to give up Sampson
• Seattle isn't giving up Nicolino or Snow, especially for bullpen help, given their solid, cheap bullpen
• The Cardinals might be ok giving up Cooney and Petrick, but they have 6.4 k/9 and 5.8 k/9 respectively, and since their bullpen is solid, they might decide to pass on making a trade if it costs them young starters
• The Rangers probably aren't giving up Ranaudo.

That leaves 3 pitchers, 26 or under with sub 4 ERA's, controlled by teams who would realistically trade them for bullpen help.  The Tigers could trade Farmer, the Twins could trade Rogers, and the last pitcher from that list is...

 

Rochester's own, Pat Dean

[TheLeviathan]

Good thing the Phillies could ask for something like...a catcher.  Or a shortstop.

 

Or, you know, any other non-pitcher.  Rogers might be one of two or three prospects for some of these guys, but the idea you think Carson Smith is getting dealt for Taylor Rogers means your valuation of Rogers is way off the map.

[drjim]

 

I don't think they are in contention yet.....so I'd rather they see what they have, than deal it......

 

I guess if you believe this and act accordingly it likely becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Not sure that's going to be the best offer than Amaro sees when he fetches calls on Papelbon. The Cubbies desperately need a closer to stay in contention, and I bet his old buddy Theo Epstein would pony up to acquire him.

 

I think the Cubs are at least optimistic about Rondon's 2.69 FIP, 4/1 k/BB ratio, and .203 BAA.