Miguel Sano How Soon Is Now?

[SwainZag]

 

IMO, I don't think AL 3B is filled with elite talent.  So I take Plouffe's ranking with a grain of salt.  Plouffe is MLB average.  Nothing wrong with that.  I don't think either should be moved off 3B.  At the end of the year, there are AB's available to each to get reps.

 

This is a good assessment.  When Trevor is hitting well, he crushes.  When he is not hitting well......he can't hit the way out of a paper bag.  If the Twins intend to keep Sano at 3B, they have an interesting decision coming at the end of the season with Plouffe. 

[amjgt]

Don't worry everyone, I found the perfect solution.

 

I just activated Carlos Correa in my Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league and I was looking for someone else to stash in my "NA" slot that Correa had occupied for the last couple months.

 

Turns out Miguel Sano is available.

 

Here's the best part:

 

Miguel Sano Min - 3B,SS

 

He can play shortstop! And here we were all worried about finding him a position to play. Turns out he can play our team's weakest position.

 

Someone call Terry Ryan and let him know.

[gocgo]

 

For the time being, Nunez is the utility infielder, and by far, the position he's played the most is SS (172 games in his career, 20 games last year for the Twins). While far from ideal, he can play SS once a week for the time being, and he's already filled in ably 4 times at 3rd this year, and he could cover for Dozier (in the unlikelihood that Dozier would ever come out of a game).

Bringing up Sano makes the most sense... if... the Twins become ever more desperate for offense and a power bat... and that they finally conclude that his bat can is ready enough to possibly make a difference.

 

Oops!  Forgot about Nunez....not that hard to do really.  Yeah, so please dump Stauffer and bring someone with a bat up.  Only question is if they can get Sano the necessary AB's.

[jokin]

The development of Buxton and Sano is more important than making the postseason in 2015. Not a universally shared opinion but the correct one in my mind. Unless there's an emergency they should be called up when they are ready and not before, regardless of the major league standings.

I would posit that you are in the extreme minority here. While it would indeed be foolish to mortgage the future in some blockbuster trade for an ace or a superstar on an expiring contract, a typical team has so few chances at making a decent run deep into post-season- why throw that chance away without attempting moves with your best available talent?

 

Defensively, Buxton is more than ready, offensively, Sano appears to be very close. The Twins have successfully shored up their OF defense, at least for the time being- which gives the Twins the luxury of holding off on Buxton to keep honing his craft at the plate; offensively, they have first been lucky, and lately been slumping, badly. This is a team with an OPS+ of 90- only the White Sox are worse. Pitching has largely carried them to this point, and the bullpen is a loaded minefield. Couldn't an uptick in offensive production, in the guise of possibly a couple dozen Sano bombs, continue to propel the Twins forward, to counteract when some of those mines eventually explode on the pitching mound?

[gocgo]

 

This is a good assessment.  When Trevor is hitting well, he crushes.  When he is not hitting well......he can't hit the way out of a paper bag.  If the Twins intend to keep Sano at 3B, they have an interesting decision coming at the end of the season with Plouffe. 

Will they wait until the end of the season or will Trevor be traded?  It would be soooo much easier for the Twins if we just stunk...but here we are.

[jokin]

IMHO,  in that scenario, Sano will see a bevy of breaking balls and will be more of a "1 for 29" type than a difference maker.

That strong difference in opinion is why it's probably worth exploring and finding out. ZiPS has a strong predictive track record and projected that in 400 PAs, Sano would hit 20 HR, OPS @ .730, with an OPS+ of 100. I think it's worth finding out which opinion is correct.

[howieramone2]

 

I would posit that you are in the extreme minority here. While it would indeed be foolish to mortgage the future in some blockbuster trade for an ace or a superstar on an expiring contract, a typical team has so few chances at making a decent run deep into post-season- why throw that chance away without attempting moves with your best available talent?

Defensively, Buxton is more than ready, offensively, Sano appears to be very close. The Twins have successfully shored up their OF defense, at least for the time being- which gives the Twins the luxury of holding off on Buxton to keep honing his craft at the plate; offensively, they have first been lucky, and lately been slumping, badly. This is a team with an OPS+ of 90- only the White Sox are worse. Pitching has largely carried them to this point, and the bullpen is a loaded minefield. Couldn't an uptick in offensive production, in the guise of possibly a couple dozen Sano bombs, continue to propel the Twins forward, to counteract when some of those mines eventually explode on the pitching mound?

Bingo!

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I would posit that you are in the extreme minority here. While it would indeed be foolish to mortgage the future in some blockbuster trade for an ace or a superstar on an expiring contract, a typical team has so few chances at making a decent run deep into post-season- why throw that chance away without attempting moves with your best available talent?

Defensively, Buxton is more than ready, offensively, Sano appears to be very close. The Twins have successfully shored up their OF defense, at least for the time being- which gives the Twins the luxury of holding off on Buxton to keep honing his craft at the plate; offensively, they have first been lucky, and lately been slumping, badly. This is a team with an OPS+ of 90- only the White Sox are worse. Pitching has largely carried them to this point, and the bullpen is a loaded minefield. Couldn't an uptick in offensive production, in the guise of possibly a couple dozen Sano bombs, continue to propel the Twins forward, to counteract when some of those mines eventually explode on the pitching mound?

 

Yes it could, but since he isn't catching, playing SS, playing DH, or manning a corner spot, I don't see how you are going to fit that bat in there. 

 

And there's no guarantee of a couple dozen bombs, much less the other items that need to come with it.

[jokin]

Yes it could, but since he isn't catching, playing SS, playing DH, or manning a corner spot, I don't see how you are going to fit that bat in there. 

 

And there's no guarantee of a couple dozen bombs, much less the other items that need to come with it.

1) So.. are you acknowledging that he appears to be blocked by lesser talent?

 

2) Did anyone say anything about a "guarantee" for 20 HRs? (I'm going off of ZiPS projections that both suggest and forecast the possibility of 20 HR in 400 PAs, with ~.730 OPS and 100 OPS+, which seem both reasonable, and an upgrade).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

[Shane Wahl]

August 1. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Polanco, and Zach Jones arrive.

[jokin]

August 1. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Polanco, and Zach Jones arrive.

OK Professor Wahl, I can get fully on board with your prognosticating here. But here's a brainteaser or two, for you...

 

1) If those 5 indeed arrive on August 1, who are the 5 who depart?

 

2) Of those that depart, where do they go, to the minors, DFA limbo, or to what other club(s), and for whom?

[tobi0040]

 

OK Professor Wahl, I can get fully on board with your prognosticating here. But here's a brainteaser or two, for you...

1) If those 5 indeed arrive on August 1, who are the 5 who depart?

2) Of those that depart, where do they go, to the minors, DFA limbo, or to what other club(s), and for whom?

 

I am going to act like that question was aimed at me:

 

Sano - Vargas

Polanco - Santana

Jones - Stauffer or Duensing

Buxton - Hicks, Arcia, or Rosario

Meyer - Milone if he starts, Stuaffer/Duensing if he doesn't

 

 

 

[Steven Buhr]

 

Sano and Buxton both mentioned in Big League Stew (on Yahoo Sports) as guys who could be called up soon. 

 

Yeah, they were mentioned, but in the final paragraph of that mention, a reference to doing so being possibly considered "crazy" appears twice:

 

Promoting either player this season would probably be viewed as premature, but franchises do crazy things when they are in contention. The Twins are currently 10 games above .500, and could make a bold move if they are in a similar position in a month or so. Is it unlikely? Yes. Have surprise contenders turned to crazier alternatives in the past? Also, yes!

 

For the record, though, I've been on the "bring Buxton and Sano up now" bandwagon since spring training, so I'm among the "crazy" crowd.

[drjim]

 

Dave Cameron weighs in on the Super Two aspect in promoting top prospects for contending teams. Insert the "MN Twins" and "Miguel Sano" (and/or Buxton?) in place of the "NY Mets" and "Steven Matz", and you have a similar situation, vis a vis the Astros move in calling up Correia yesterday. Super Two considerations for first-time call-ups are fast fading away. Cameron begins his argument by quoting Joel Sherman:

" '... But their bigger short-term issue is assuring Matz does not become Super Two eligible. The top 22 percent of service time between two and three years do not have to wait until three completed seasons to become arbitration eligible. Thus, clubs keep down some of their better players to prevent them from qualifying in a few years. The Astros brought up their best prospect, shortstop Carlos Correa, on Monday, though the belief is the cutoff line is probably a week away, perhaps two just to be safe.

The first-place Astros are willing to gamble in a way the first-place Mets are not. They appear to be willing to wait until about July 1 to make sure...' "

He then refutes the notion of whether or not this is much of a gamble:


"Because the Super Two timeline is a moving target, there’s no clear line of demarcation that can be pointed to in real-time; the amount of days needed to qualify as a Super Two are only known in retrospect. But we can get a pretty decent sense of the range from past history, and helpfully, MLB Trade Rumors has been tracking the Super Two line for each of the last six years. From their records:

2014: 2.133
2013: 2.122
2012: 2.140
2011: 2.146
2010: 2.122
2009: 2.139

The numbers after the decimal reflect the number of days of service needed beyond two full years, so last year’s Super Two group had two full years and between 133 and 171 days of service, since 172 days of service counts as a full year. The number has dipped as low as 122 days a couple of times, but has generally been on the higher side, up near 140 days, which is what it is currently projected to be for this year’s class as well.

But it’s fair to say that anything in that 120-140 range makes a player a potential Super Two, and you probably need to come in under 120 days of service if you want to feel fairly safe about avoiding that tag with your top prospects. So, did the Astros really risk Super Two status with Correa, as Sherman asserted, rather than holding him down another “week or two” in order to ensure that he would miss the cut?

Let’s simply count the days. In every Major League regular season, there are 183 days of service, starting at Opening Day and finishing with the last day of the season. This year, Opening Day was April 5th and the season ends October 4th, so there were 26 available service days in April, 31 in May, 30 in June, 31 in July, 31 in August, 30 in September, and 4 in October.

The 57 service days available in April and May are gone, as are eight of the days from June’s total, so players who have been up since Opening Day have accrued 65 days of service this year, leaving 118 remaining on the year. Correa, who debuted yesterday, will end the year with 119 days of service; that’s three fewer than the lowest total of any Super Two cutoff line over the last six years. That was not a coincidence.

The Astros held Correa down just long enough to make it very likely that he’ll miss Super Two eligibility, and called him right in the sweet spot of when they can get the most value from him in 2015 at the lowest long-term cost possible. The Mets could call Matz up today, and likewise, he’d almost certainly be free and clear of Super Two status.

If they wait another week or two, as Sherman suggests they will, it won’t even be in question; the probability of Matz obtaining Super Two status will have moved from something like 0.1% down to 0.0%..."


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/steven-matz-the-mets-and-the-super-two-rule/

It appears that the circumstances in moving Sano up from this point forward will now be coming down to a pure positive readiness assessment coupled with "gambling" with the supplanting of an underperforming veteran (or more experienced prospect) by a brand new top prospect possibly playing out of position.

 

Great post.

 

I'm not sure "gambling" is the right way to say it. There are clear holes in the lineup that even Ryan acknowledged. When they are deemed ready, they'll be up. I think it could be somewhat soon, but Buxton is probably ahead of Sano.

[Steven Buhr]

When I went "crazy" this spring and wrote that I felt Sano and Buxton should just go ahead and start the season with the Twins, I was not envisioning the Twins being at or near the top of the AL Central in mid-June. To a degree, that does change things. Then again, I'm not sure it changes much.

 

I do believe that when you find yourself contending at this point in the season, you shouldn't do anything that would be considered giving up on this season.

 

For me, the question is, would the Twins be a better team right now with Buxton and/or Sano on the 25 man roster?

 

Reasonable minds can differ on that question, but I think there's a good chance that they would, indeed, be better with them than they are without them.

[Mike Sixel]

Thought game...

 

If Plouffe stays a top 10 3B, do you move Sano to a new position , trade Plouffe, keep Sano down until Plouffe is no longer good?

[SwainZag]

 

Thought game...

If Plouffe stays a top 10 3B, do you move Sano to a new position , trade Plouffe, keep Sano down until Plouffe is no longer good?

 

If management thinks that Sano's glove is good enough to stick at 3B, you trade Plouffe at some point.  Now the timing is the real question.  If they are in contention at the deadline, you obviously can't trade him then, but the off-season?  Deadline next year?  

[Mike Sixel]

Deadline next year....what do you do with Sano until then?

[tobi0040]

 

If management thinks that Sano's glove is good enough to stick at 3B, you trade Plouffe at some point.  Now the timing is the real question.  If they are in contention at the deadline, you obviously can't trade him then, but the off-season?  Deadline next year?  

 

Too difficult of a question, given the unknowns.  My decision points would be what our confidence is in Sano sticking at 3B and for how long.  And obviously what you can get by trading Plouffe.   And what we are losing in having Sano there versus Plouffe.  Even if Sano sticks, nobody thinks he will be plus as Trevor probably is right now.

 

The scenario I would look to mitigate would be trading Plouffe, then having to move Sano off 3B in the next few years.  That would be worst case.   We have to be very confident that won't happen. 

 

Timing - absolutely not this year. The scenario of Sano at DH helps a contending team without hurting Sano's development too much (if promoted in August)

[Linus]

You trade Plouffe, along with another prospect for the best young, MLB ready catcher available.  This does not happen, however, as long as the Twins are contending this year and as long as they feel Sano is still developing his overall game.  That would mean Plouffe is dealt in the off-season or even next year's deadline.

[Lonestar]

DFA Nunez, move Escobar to bench unless he reverts to 2014 form, call up Polanco

 

DFA Duensing to get to 7 man bullpen and 4 man bench, call up Sano for 1B, bench Mauer

 

DFA Stauffer, replace with Zach Jones

 

Opton Pressly, call up Meyer

 

DFA Robinson, call up Buxton

 

trade for Graham, option him, call up Berrios or Jay

 

Option Milone, activate E. Santana

[drjim]

 

Thought game...

If Plouffe stays a top 10 3B, do you move Sano to a new position , trade Plouffe, keep Sano down until Plouffe is no longer good?

 

Put Sano in RF until Plouffe is a free agent or no longer good then reevaluate. Perhaps the timetable is moved up if another prospect breaks through.

[smith718]

This may be crazy, but trade Suzuki, move Mauer back to catcher, and let Sano play first.

[nicksaviking]

I'm curious what he's done to make him a "no-brainer" call up?

Well the last month was pretty impressive and vintage Sano. I think we're all going to be disappointed if we plan on waiting to call up prospects until they have no question marks.

[jokin]

Put Sano in RF until Plouffe is a free agent or no longer good then reevaluate. Perhaps the timetable is moved up if another prospect breaks through.

 

Thread winner (only IMO, of course).

 

They hired Torii to mentor all of these young OF, why not have the current RF add one more prospect to his mentorship list... cut back on his playing time in the OF as the season grows longer... and mix time DHing and playing RF with Sano?

[drjim]

 

Thread winner (only IMO, of course).

They hired Torii to mentor all of these young OF, why not have the current RF add one more prospect to his mentorship list... cut back on his playing time in the OF as the season grows longer... and mix time DHing and playing RF with Sano?

 

For the rest of the season I wouldn't mind those two more or less rotating between RF and DH, with maybe the occasional day at 3B or 1B for Sano.

[GMinTraining]

All this said and it is Sano's teammate who leads all the minor leagues (A; AA; AAA) in HRs  [Adam Brett Walker].  Both will be great Power bats for the Twins in the next 2 years.  Is there ever a time when you go with the hot bat?  Congrats to the 7 Chattanooga Lookouts who made the Southern League All Star Game.  

[jokin]

For the rest of the season I wouldn't mind those two more or less rotating between RF and DH, with maybe the occasional day at 3B or 1B for Sano.

See guys.. it's not that hard

[SwainZag]

 

Thread winner (only IMO, of course).

They hired Torii to mentor all of these young OF, why not have the current RF add one more prospect to his mentorship list... cut back on his playing time in the OF as the season grows longer... and mix time DHing and playing RF with Sano?

 

Calling up a guy who has never played in the OF to play RF in the majors solely to use his bat while meanwhile taking away his every day reps at 3B would be a mistake IMO.  

[jokin]

Calling up a guy who has never played in the OF to play RF in the majors solely to use his bat while meanwhile taking away his every day reps at 3B would be a mistake IMO.

I don't really think 2 or 3 months off of the position, meanwhile with the chance to participate and contribute in a pennant drive should derail an elite-level athlete of his caliber too significantly. Especially if he's adequately covered by Hicks and possibly Buxton in CF.