Miguel Sano How Soon Is Now?

[Vanimal46]

Plouffe

I would definitely consider it in the off-season. Don't know enough about Pawlecky to know for sure, but if he's an upgrade from Suzuki I would be fine with the downgrade at 3B for the 2016 season and accept the deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

.

 

And no, Bryant didn't spend 2014 in the minors because of budget concerns. Just two weeks this year.

I am pretty sure in a universe where service time isn't an issue, Bryant's 2014 numbers get a call-up in September if not earlier. As it was, they knew that any 2014 call-up would make their 2015 scheme harder to implement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

.

 

Pederson, Bryant and Gallo had more than 500 PA in 2014. Sano had zero PA in 2014. A year off makes a difference. Each of these players also put up better numbers than Sano at AA.

 

Sano's career AA OPS is better than Pederson's, and very close to Gallo too.

[GoGonzoJournal]

If Vargas struggles again, I wouldn't be surprised if Sano was up in the DH spot, playing a day at first base here and there, a day at third base here and there. He can't be worse than Arcia defensively in RF, and his bat will be much bigger.

 

Buxton is the more interesting situation with Aaron Hicks locking down CF. He's really proving he belongs in the bigs...finally. I wouldn't be surprised if Buxton is held back the entire year.

[Kwak]

 

If Vargas struggles again, I wouldn't be surprised if Sano was up in the DH spot, playing a day at first base here and there, a day at third base here and there. He can't be worse than Arcia defensively in RF, and his bat will be much bigger.

 

Buxton is the more interesting situation with Aaron Hicks locking down CF. He's really proving he belongs in the bigs...finally. I wouldn't be surprised if Buxton is held back the entire year.

I wouldn't be surprised if both Buxton and Sano were held back the requisite games  to extend team control.

[dbminn]

 

 

Sano 2015 OPS at AA:                 .848 (2015 only)

Bryant 2014 AA:                         1.160

Pederson 2014 AAA :                 1.017 (AA in 2013 was .870 or so)

Correa 2015 AA:                         1.285 (Didn't reach AA to this year)

Gallo 2015 AA:                            1.061 (AA in 2014 was .858)

 

Each of these players dominated before getting called up. The numbers are not close. Sano is a fine player and he may become great. Just a little patience.

[SwainZag]

What's the rush anyways?  I would rather see Vargas get some full time AB, or platoon with Arcia when he gets back and see what they can do with a little experience under their belt before forcing Sano into a new position just to get his bat in the lineup. 

[drjim]

 

I wouldn't be surprised if both Buxton and Sano were held back the requisite games  to extend team control.

 

Keeping them down until early next year would be a disappoint to say the least.

[jokin]

What's the rush anyways?  I would rather see Vargas get some full time AB, or platoon with Arcia when he gets back and see what they can do with a little experience under their belt before forcing Sano into a new position just to get his bat in the lineup.

What's the rush? Uhh, did you partake of this evening's game? No-hit by a 36 year old junk-balling career journeyman? Even Molitor was second-guessing himself a bit in the postgame, by not going to a RHPH for Rosario with Plouffe the tying run at 3rd, of course, his options were indeed limited.

 

Sure, the overall slump is likely short-term in nature, but even if/when this team is firing on all cylinders, it's probably not going to be enough to stay competitive all year.

[jokin]

Sano 2015 OPS at AA:                 .848 (2015 only)

Bryant 2014 AA:                         1.160

Pederson 2014 AAA :                 1.017 (AA in 2013 was .870 or so)

Correa 2015 AA:                         1.285 (Didn't reach AA to this year)

Gallo 2015 AA:                            1.061 (AA in 2014 was .858)

 

Each of these players dominated before getting called up. The numbers are not close. Sano is a fine player and he may become great. Just a little patience.

Gallo and Pederson's numbers don't really make your case.*** And none of these guys are coming back from a year layoff.^^^

 

*** Sano's combined time at AA gives him an OPS of .887, which tops both Gallo and Pederson.

 

^^^ Since April 29, his OPS is .983.

 

Just before their final call-up, here are what 3 of the game's best produced:

 

Machado AA: .268/352/.438/(.785)

Pujols A+/AAA: .274/.330/.453/(.783)

Longoria AA year one: .267/.266/.486/(.752)

Longoria AA/AAA year two + 7: .294/.393/.504/(.897)

[kab21]

I would keep both of them down for one more month (all star game).  A big part of that is to have a little more sustained success after a year off.  The other part is that I'm interested in seeing what Vargas/Rosario/Hunter/Hicks can do with everyday playing time.  It's not like the current starting features Nunez or Robinson too often. 

[amjgt]

I know we wish he would strike out less, but this argument for Sano playing RF makes me say "why not Walker?"

 

He strikes out 1/3 of his at bats. That's not good. We want that number reduced but even with all of those strikeouts his batting average is in relatively the same territory as Sano and Buxton. All he does is get extra base hits and lead every league he plays in in RBI. If he struck out half as much he'd be batting 320 and we'd be talking about him as a top 10 prospect in baseball. Alas, he strikes out 1/3 of the time.... That's his wart. I can live with that wart.

[amjgt]

I mean, why can ABW3 be Nelson Cruz eventually?

[GMinTraining]

I like that Comp for ABWII down the line.  I also see Sano as a better hitter than Gallo down the line too with equal power.

[kab21]

 

I know we wish he would strike out less, but this argument for Sano playing RF makes me say "why not Walker?"

He strikes out 1/3 of his at bats. That's not good. We want that number reduced but even with all of those strikeouts his batting average is in relatively the same territory as Sano and Buxton. All he does is get extra base hits and lead every league he plays in in RBI. If he struck out half as much he'd be batting 320 and we'd be talking about him as a top 10 prospect in baseball. Alas, he strikes out 1/3 of the time.... That's his wart. I can live with that wart.

It's certainly possible but unlikely.  The reason that is unlikely is that Cruz struck out about 25% of the time in the minors with a 2.5 K/BB ratio and hit close to .300.  Walker is considerably worse in all categories.  Why is that important?  Because those numbers rarely improve when someone goes to the majors.  They usually get worse.  There is one similarity that is worth looking at though.  Cruz's numbers (K rate and K/BB) until low A ball were similar to Walker's and then Cruz made improvements in A+ ball. 

 

If people go way back to the BYTO days there were discussions about why 2006-2008 Chris Parmelee couldn't be successful in the majors like Adam Dunn.  That sounds preposterous but Parmelee was a 3 outcome player early in his career.  He hit HR's, BB'd and K'd a lot.  That analysis neglected that Dunn was a .300 MiLB hitter that became a .240 MLB hitter.

 

But maybe ABW can maintain his MiLB rates as he progresses to the majors and maintain the power.  It's not unheard of to have similar K and K/BB rates as you move up but if MiLB pitchers can find that many holes in his swing then it seems like MLB pitchers will find many more.

 

This is also one reason that I'm lukewarm on promoting Sano and Buxton immediately.  Their OPS is great considering their age and inexperience but their plate discipline is not (especially Buxton's).

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the Twins continue to move ABW slowly, and I'm fine with that.  He may never be a walk machine, but I do think at this point he's going to have a major league career. Perhaps he ends up like Vlad Gurerro, who knows.  The fact that he's still doing what he's been doing in AA is encouraging.

[tobi0040]

 

I wouldn't be surprised if both Buxton and Sano were held back the requisite games  to extend team control.

 

True, but we are really close to that day.  We may already be past it.

[tobi0040]

 

I think the Twins continue to move ABW slowly, and I'm fine with that.  He may never be a walk machine, but I do think at this point he's going to have a major league career. Perhaps he ends up like Vlad Gurerro, who knows.  The fact that he's still doing what he's been doing in AA is encouraging.

 

I agree.  His 16 HR right now are encouraging and certainly better than not hitting 16 HR.  But he is a guy that can't be judged just on his HR totals.  the .260/.313 isn't anything to write home about.

 

His career average is .260 with a BB in 5% of PA.

Vlad was a career .318 hitter and walked about 7% of the time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Buxton is the more interesting situation with Aaron Hicks locking down CF. He's really proving he belongs in the bigs...finally. I wouldn't be surprised if Buxton is held back the entire year.

Huh?  I don't mind Hicks at the moment, but he's got the same OPS and ISO that he posted last year, for a 73 OPS+.  Hopefully those things starting moving up with a better approach, but he hasn't locked down anything, and he certainly should not be an impediment to Buxton at this point (especially with uncertainty in both corners -- can Rosario keep it up, and how often should Hunter play the field).

 

Hicks as 4th OF (still getting a lot of starts) would be a real sign of strength and improvement for our OF and on our team.  As it is, we've still been giving a lot of OF starts to Escobar and even some to Robinson (who is batting .088 the past month).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

True, but we are really close to that day.  We may already be past it.

Yup.  Team control, we are long past, at least until May 2016.  And we should be past Super 2 now too, hence the Correa call-up.

 

Sano is the particularly vexing one.  He lost a season last year, but he's already on the 40-man so it costs us very little to call him up this season.  He's also slightly older than Buxton with a lot more pro experience.  He should be in a position to be called up any day now -- if not to MLB today, then at least see how he adapts to a AAA promotion right now, with an eye toward MLB.  Waiting until midseason for AAA and/or September for MLB just doesn't make sense for him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yup.  Team control, we are long past, at least until May 2016.  And we should be past Super 2 now too, hence the Correa call-up.

 

Sano is the particularly vexing one.  He lost a season last year, but he's already on the 40-man so it costs us very little to call him up this season.  He's also slightly older than Buxton with a lot more pro experience.  He should be in a position to be called up any day now -- if not to MLB today, then at least see how he adapts to a AAA promotion right now, with an eye toward MLB.  Waiting until midseason for AAA and/or September for MLB just doesn't make sense for him.

 

But, the minor league playoff spot is important too.........

[tobi0040]

 

Yup.  Team control, we are long past, at least until May 2016.  And we should be past Super 2 now too, hence the Correa call-up.

 

Sano is the particularly vexing one.  He lost a season last year, but he's already on the 40-man so it costs us very little to call him up this season.  He's also slightly older than Buxton with a lot more pro experience.  He should be in a position to be called up any day now -- if not to MLB today, then at least see how he adapts to a AAA promotion right now, with an eye toward MLB.  Waiting until midseason for AAA and/or September for MLB just doesn't make sense for him.

 

You have a position issue with Sano though.

[jokin]

But, the minor league playoff spot is important too.........

And don't forget the Southern League All Star game...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You have a position issue with Sano though.

Not really, if you consider DH an open competition.

 

Besides, Plouffe is good, but he may not be "162 games played" good.  He's on pace for 156 right now (if you discount the two he missed for a funeral).  Indeed his career high for starts is 135.  And he's often considered our backup 1B too, for a guy who also is not a "162 games" player (Mauer).

 

There's plenty of opportunity to break in Sano against MLB pitching, and get him to see a little action at 3B too.  Positional concerns shouldn't delay Sano's MLB debut until September 2015 or later.

[tobi0040]

 

Not really, if you consider DH an open competition.

 

Besides, Plouffe is good, but he may not be "162 games played" good.  He's on pace for 156 right now (if you discount the two he missed for a funeral).  Indeed his career high for starts is 135.  And he's often considered our backup 1B too, for a guy who also is not a "162 games" player (Mauer).

 

There's plenty of opportunity to break in Sano against MLB pitching, and get him to see a little action at 3B too.  Positional concerns shouldn't delay Sano's MLB debut until September 2015 or later.

 

I think the Twins really want him to stick at 3B, but clearly has room to get better there.  He is only 22. So I don't think "some" work at 3B will be enough for them. 

 

Prior to August, I think he is up if Plouffe is hurt or they totally give up on him as a 3B.  If we are in the hunt then....he probably comes up and plays 3B 1-2 days a week and is your DH every other game.  I say August because he gets another 7-8+ weeks of playing 3B every day at AA.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Prior to August, I think he is up if Plouffe is hurt or they totally give up on him as a 3B.  If we are in the hunt then....he probably comes up and plays 3B 1-2 days a week and is your DH every other game.  I say August because he gets another 7-8+ weeks of playing 3B every day at AA.

See, I'd rather get him acclimated to MLB pitching before we are still in the hunt in August, because he might be worthless this year or he might need a month or two to get going at this level, and it's best to have that information earlier.

 

The nice thing about acting early is that you still have plenty of time to change course.  If Sano's bat takes off, maybe you can live with some delayed 3B development, and you've got an answer for the not-unlikely event of a Plouffe injury (or even a Mauer injury, with Plouffe sliding over to 1B).  If his bat is shaky (or the team fades), you can always send him back down and you still have time to look for or audition another bat.

 

Wait until August and you can't really do that -- by that point, it's Sano or bust.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't understand how having him DH from July on hurts his long term development permanently, I just don't understand that. Plus, I think everyone would agree that a game a week at 3B would make sense also......though I'd still move him to 1B now.....

[tobi0040]

 

See, I'd rather get him acclimated to MLB pitching before we are still in the hunt in August, because he might be worthless this year or he might need a month or two to get going at this level, and it's best to have that information earlier.

 

The nice thing about acting early is that you still have plenty of time to change course.  If Sano's bat takes off, maybe you can live with some delayed 3B development, and you've got an answer for the not-unlikely event of a Plouffe injury (or even a Mauer injury, with Plouffe sliding over to 1B).  If his bat is shaky (or the team fades), you can always send him back down and you still have time to look for or audition another bat.

 

Wait until August and you can't really do that -- by that point, it's Sano or bust.

 

I don't disagree with you at all.  I just think with Sano the Twins will be more concerned about Sano the prospect than Sano helping the team in June and July.   If they were more concerned about him helping the club this year, I think he would start looking at some balls in right, or maybe even 1B.  But he has been going at 3B every day.

 

I think it is a good point about if Mauer gets hurt.  You shift Plouffe to 1B and call up Sano.  That is another outcome where we see him before August.

[tobi0040]

 

I don't understand how having him DH from July on hurts his long term development permanently, I just don't understand that. Plus, I think everyone would agree that a game a week at 3B would make sense also......though I'd still move him to 1B now.....

 

I don't disagree with you either, especially if he goes and plays 3B in winter ball.  But I still don't see it happening.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't disagree with you at all.  I just think with Sano the Twins will be more concerned about Sano the prospect than Sano helping the team in June and July.   If they were more concerned about him helping the club this year, I think he would start looking at some balls in right, or maybe even 1B.  But he has been going at 3B every day.

You're probably right, although I would say a promotion is not necessarily just about helping the club this year.  It could very well help Sano as a hitter too.

 

And regardless of the positional issues at the MLB level, there's no reason he couldn't slide up to AAA right now.  Even if the league itself isn't that much more challenging than a good AA league, seeing how he quickly he adapts to a change in circumstances could inform how and when to time his eventual MLB promotion too.