PioneerPlanet.com Article Dredges Up Mind-Melting Gardy Chestnuts

[Kobs]

"Numbers lie a lot," Gardenhire told the Pioneer Press then. "I have a hard time believing all that stuff (about the increasing use of statistics). Our scouts do that, they show me all those numbers. I show them the door. You go by the numbers and a lot of guys wouldn't be playing."

 

...

 

Gardenhire employed similar language in April 2010, when Sports Illustrated did a piece on the rising use of baseball statistics by MLB teams. "... I like the human element, and I like the heart way better than I like their numbers," he told the magazine. "And that's what I'll always stay with."

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_20952060/numbers-crunchers-twins-old-school-methods-dont-add

Nutshelled.

[edavis0308]

<facepalm> jdnsidif

[crapforks]

Gardenhire doesn't see himself as a numbers guy?!?! RON Gardenhire!??! Those words melted the tail right off my mind.

[DPJ]

Your manager of the year Ron Gardenhire.

[GCTF]

This stuff is gold, Jerry. Gold!

[one_eyed_jack]

The Gardenhire quotes are the least troubling aspect of this article.

 

Yes, Gardenhire is an old-school baseball guy (or a dinosaur if you want to be less kind).

 

But at this point he is merely a symptom of a much deeper organizational problem.

 

Replacing him would be putting a band-aid on a cut without curing the disease.

[Guest USAFChief]

I have no problem with Gardy not trusting some numbers. Some of the stuff thrown around on the web as fact is, in fact, unproven at best and complete horse$##! at worst. I happen to agree with Ron about defensive metrics, for example. I'd trust Gardenhire's opinion about a player's defensive skills way before I'd trust any of the defensive metrics.

 

But I do have a problem with Twins upper management not even knowing what most of those numbers purport to tell them, not knowing how they're arrived at, but dismissing most of them out of hand. I believe it was Rob Antony in an interview on TT a couple years ago who couldn't even state what the letters in BABIP stand for, much less form an opinion on it's usefullness. That's criminal, IMO.

 

Keeping up with the latest research, developments, lines of thinking, etc is the responsibility of management in ANY business. By all means, discard it as useless if you don't like it, but make that decision after learning what the heck it is other people are talking about. Make that decision out of careful consideration, not out of willful ignorance.

[Boom Boom]

"You go by the numbers and a lot of guys wouldn't be playing."

 

I'm trying to wrap my head around this quote.

 

Gardy's right that if you made decisions solely based on numbers, some of the guys who are currently playing for the Twins might not be. But someone else would - somebody with better numbers.

 

There's some degree of eyeball analysis and managing of egos that goes into managing and I won't question that. But there's no reason to plug your ears and close your eyes to statistical information.

[Kobs]

I have no problem with Gardy not trusting some numbers. Some of the stuff thrown around on the web as fact is, in fact, unproven at best and complete horse$##! at worst. I happen to agree with Ron about defensive metrics, for example. I'd trust Gardenhire's opinion about a player's defensive skills way before I'd trust any of the defensive metrics.

 

But I do have a problem with Twins upper management not even knowing what most of those numbers purport to tell them, not knowing how they're arrived at, but dismissing most of them out of hand. I believe it was Rob Antony in an interview on TT a couple years ago who couldn't even state what the letters in BABIP stand for, much less form an opinion on it's usefullness. That's criminal, IMO.

 

Keeping up with the latest research, developments, lines of thinking, etc is the responsibility of management in ANY business. By all means, discard it as useless if you don't like it, but make that decision after learning what the heck it is other people are talking about. Make that decision out of careful consideration, not out of willful ignorance.

I doubt Burl is talking about zone rating or xfip...the reason this is so frightening, he was most likely talking about all stats, including the "classics."

[Kobs]

For those that didnt read the article the first quote is from 2003.

[Badsmerf]

Is this really surprising? It actually makes a lot more sense... the Twins suck because they haven't evolved with the game. Pretty much exactly what many have thought.

[Pius Jefferson]

The Twins just put a major focus on adding power arms to the organization. From the pitching stand-point they at least indirectly admitted a change is necessary.

 

I honestly don't know how much of the problem is an antiquated philosophy or poor player development. There's players drafted or signs that had strong sabremetric attributes.

[Thrylos]

Your manager of the year Ron Gardenhire.

nope. Manager of the Millennium

[Riverbrian]

Is it possible that Gardy has been quoted out of context?

[Paul]

Is it possible that Gardy has been quoted out of context?

C'mon Brian, that never happens on the internet.

[rnw24]

its not going to happen, but i think its time for the twins to move on from gardy

[Seth Stohs]

As has been said, it was a quote from 2003. And we don't know if it was taken out of context. In some ways, I agree with a lot of what's written above. I also agree with Gardy. I think it's irresponsible for a manager or a front office to not take all available information into account when decisions need to be made. That said, I always appreciate a manager who is willing to go against the book. We (as fans) do not know all of the information that the manager knows about players and behind the scenes stuff, and who just flat-out needs a day off or that kind of stuff. The beauty of baseball is there is no ONE correct way to think.

[Thrylos]

As has been said, it was a quote from 2003. And we don't know if it was taken out of context. In some ways, I agree with a lot of what's written above. I also agree with Gardy. I think it's irresponsible for a manager or a front office to not take all available information into account when decisions need to be made. That said, I always appreciate a manager who is willing to go against the book. We (as fans) do not know all of the information that the manager knows about players and behind the scenes stuff, and who just flat-out needs a day off or that kind of stuff. The beauty of baseball is there is no ONE correct way to think.

Seth, the day to day thing is one thing. Personnel decisions like handing a starting job to Blackburn out of ST last season, while everything pointed out that they shouldn't, is another. That another is why Gardy needs to either get the 21st century or retire. (and not only him, the Twins' FO, starting with the 130 year old Minor League Player development director should be in line too...)

[Guest USAFChief]

Is this really surprising? It actually makes a lot more sense... the Twins suck because they haven't evolved with the game. Pretty much exactly what many have thought.

 

Did that non-evolvement just catch up with them in 2011?

[Thrylos]

Did that non-evolvement just catch up with them in 2011?

Nope. Last World series was in 1991. That is 21 seasons ago. After McPhail left, this team started to fall apart.

[Guest USAFChief]

I doubt Burl is talking about zone rating or xfip...the reason this is so frightening, he was most likely talking about all stats, including the "classics."

I don't know...he always seems to know when some bench player is 3 for 8 against tomorrow's starter.

[Guest USAFChief]

Nope. Last World series was in 1991. That is 21 seasons ago. After McPhail left, this team started to fall apart.

Clearly, you're on to something here. The sucktastic '90's were all Ron Gardenhire's fault.

[Kobs]

As has been said, it was a quote from 2003. And we don't know if it was taken out of context. In some ways, I agree with a lot of what's written above. I also agree with Gardy. I think it's irresponsible for a manager or a front office to not take all available information into account when decisions need to be made. That said, I always appreciate a manager who is willing to go against the book. We (as fans) do not know all of the information that the manager knows about players and behind the scenes stuff, and who just flat-out needs a day off or that kind of stuff. The beauty of baseball is there is no ONE correct way to think.

Gardy doesn't go against the book, he dogmatically follows an outdated one.

[one_eyed_jack]

I don't understand why Gardenhire is the sole focus of the discussion here.

 

The article illustrates a rather distrubing organization refusal to adapt to modern methods of player evaluation. Gardy is clearly in the old school baseball camp, but his job, more than any other, you need some of that.

 

Managers are responsible for a lot of things such as handling egos and personalities, keeping the clubhouse together, keeping guys focused making sure guys don't get too high in good times or too low in bad ones, dealing with the media, etc. that simply cannot be informed by spreadsheets. I'm not excusing the stubborn "Stats? We don't need no stinking stats" attitude, that can be problematic as well. But replacing Gardy wouldn't go very far towards solving the problems outlined in the article.

[one_eyed_jack]

Nope. Last World series was in 1991. That is 21 seasons ago. After McPhail left, this team started to fall apart.

McPhail left in 1994. The Twins went from World Champs in '91 to a 6th-place, 71-91 finish in his last full season. So the team actually started falling apart before he left.

[crapforks]

Given a decent team, Gardenhire is a good manager. Yeah, he rides the Puntos and Buteras (and any of the washed up vets he's given) into the ground, but I would like to see him at the helm for the next good/great Twins resurgence. Can it happen with different bench, hitting, and pitching coaches?

[Badsmerf]

Given a decent team, Gardenhire is a good manager. Yeah, he rides the Puntos and Buteras (and any of the washed up vets he's given) into the ground, but I would like to see him at the helm for the next good/great Twins resurgence. Can it happen with different bench, hitting, and pitching coaches?

I can't excuse the poor performance of the "good" Twins teams in the playoffs. My whole reason for not liking Gardy is based off his teams inability to do anything in the post-season. The day-to-day things are frustrating, but he's gotten better.

 

My original post wasn't aimed at Gardy, more at the organization as a whole. Maybe they are attempting to rectify it? Problem is that I think this organization has walked a line so far that it can't go back unless new people are brought in. Who knows, in a couple years we might be saying something different with the prospects coming up being close.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That said, I always appreciate a manager who is willing to go against the book.

Yeah, that's great... When the book is wrong. Joe Maddon is great at knowing when the book is wrong.

 

If Gardy was to go against the grain and eliminate the ninth inning "closer", most of us would be cheering. He would have "gone against the book" and found a potential exploit in current baseball thinking that improves the team.

 

But we're not talking about that. We're talking about running guys on the field who OPS at .500 because they "hustle" or they "really get in there and play". Except they don't play. The stats show that. They're awful MLB players. But Gardy runs them out there anyway.

 

He's trying to play a 21st century game with a 19th century mindset. It's not a winning formula. The Twins could get away with it earlier in his career because the scouting was excellent, development was top-notch, and Anderson did a fantastic job with the pitching staff. That's no longer the case. The Twins need to modernize in a big, bad way and Gardenhire continually proves he is incapable of doing that by running Drew-^%$ing-Butera out there two or three times a week, despite having Ryan Doumit on the bench.

 

One of the hallmarks of early-Gardenhire Twins teams was their "little things" play. They played sound defense. They hit the cutoff men. They didn't kick the ball around. Those Twins teams are gone, which leads me to believe that those attributes were the result of the hard-ass Tom Kelly, not Ron Gardenhire. If Gardy can't even do traditional baseball right (which he seems to pride himself on), how can we expect him to do anything right at this point?

 

I'm not a huge Gardy-basher and I think he does a fine job in the clubhouse but it's becoming more apparent that this franchise needs to go in a different direction. Part of that should involve the coaching staff. I'm willing to give Ryan a little more time to see if he can rekindle more magic but outside of the GM position, it's probably time to start thinking about moving the franchise in a new direction.

[jctwins]

Yeah, that's great... When the book is wrong. Joe Maddon is great at knowing when the book is wrong.

 

If Gardy was to go against the grain and eliminate the ninth inning "closer", most of us would be cheering. He would have "gone against the book" and found a potential exploit in current baseball thinking that improves the team.

 

But we're not talking about that. We're talking about running guys on the field who OPS at .500 because they "hustle" or they "really get in there and play". Except they don't play. The stats show that. They're awful MLB players. But Gardy runs them out there anyway.

 

He's trying to play a 21st century game with a 19th century mindset. It's not a winning formula. The Twins could get away with it earlier in his career because the scouting was excellent, development was top-notch, and Anderson did a fantastic job with the pitching staff. That's no longer the case. The Twins need to modernize in a big, bad way and Gardenhire continually proves he is incapable of doing that by running Drew-^%$ing-Butera out there two or three times a week, despite having Ryan Doumit on the bench.

 

One of the hallmarks of early-Gardenhire Twins teams was their "little things" play. They played sound defense. They hit the cutoff men. They didn't kick the ball around. Those Twins teams are gone, which leads me to believe that those attributes were the result of the hard-ass Tom Kelly, not Ron Gardenhire. If Gardy can't even do traditional baseball right (which he seems to pride himself on), how can we expect him to do anything right at this point?

 

I'm not a huge Gardy-basher and I think he does a fine job in the clubhouse but it's becoming more apparent that this franchise needs to go in a different direction. Part of that should involve the coaching staff. I'm willing to give Ryan a little more time to see if he can rekindle more magic but outside of the GM position, it's probably time to start thinking about moving the franchise in a new direction.

This x 1,000

[one_eyed_jack]

Well this thread has officially jumped the shark.

 

The impact of the manager on the team's success or failure is often wildly overstated. But now we're linking results to former managers?! Wow.