2016 Election Thread

[stringer bell]

Well said Bark. I've subscribed to the theory that the biggest problem with Islam is that the powers that be haven't reined in the extremists. As a matter of fact, it is my understanding that the rich an powerful Saudis have basically paid off first Al Qaida and now ISIS, slipping them money if they stay out of Saudi Arabia.

 

 

[Craig Arko]

Thoughtful post, Bark. I love it when you speak from the heart and head together.

 

Let me think on this a while, and see if I can come up with something worthwhile to add.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is really worth a read and it's a good reminder that while Islam is part of the problem, most Muslims aren't.

 

Not that anyone here is making that argument but it's a good reminder every now and again.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-omar-mateen-muslims-donald-trump-0160620-story.html

[TheLeviathan]

 

This is really worth a read and it's a good reminder that while Islam is part of the problem, most Muslims aren't.

 

Not that anyone here is making that argument but it's a good reminder every now and again.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-omar-mateen-muslims-donald-trump-0160620-story.html

 

I commend him, that probably took more guts than many of us realize.  It's a really nice article for context for how some of the young men in the West become self-radicalized too.

 

Let's be clear though Brock - Muslims in America (and those that want to come here) are overwhelmingly not part of the problem.  These are the believers who have already adopted progressive ideas of their religion.

 

Around the world that is not as clear.  We have some solid evidence that, at the very least, the belief system is very non-Western and non-progressive.  Certainly their feelings on homosexuality and women are not.  (Sharia Law is a boogeyman to the right, but it's some medieval S*%^ and it's largely supported)

 

The degree to which terror is supported is much murkier to establish, but there are positive signs that it is generally frowned upon.  That's a good thing.  At the same time, it finds many recruits and safe harbors.  Rejecting it, for Muslims abroad, means you are rejecting a fellow believer of their interpretation.  We know how difficult that is even in more progressive religions.  That's going to be the really hard part to get past.  The reformers around the world trying to help Islam are badly, badly outnumbered.  Changing that tide is going to be tough.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Let's be clear though Brock - Muslims in America (and those that want to come here) are overwhelmingly not part of the problem.  These are the believers who have already adopted progressive ideas of their religion.

Oh, absolutely. If a Muslim thinks radicalization and oppressive law is awesome, they wouldn't move to America. They'd stay where they are.

 

That's what bothers me most about the Islamophobia consuming the west. We're attacking the people who disagree with radical Islam the most, the people who dislike it so much they upended their lives and moved to another country to escape it.

[Mike Sixel]

The key part in this whole issue is that it is complicated........and requires a bit more nuance than "all x type of people are evil". Alas, nuance is not something many USAians are all that interested in.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Oh, absolutely. If a Muslim thinks radicalization and oppressive law is awesome, they wouldn't move to America. They'd stay where they are.

 

That's what bothers me most about the Islamophobia consuming the west. We're attacking the people who disagree with radical Islam the most, the people who dislike it so much they upended their lives and moved to another country to escape it.

 

Like the refugees.  One of the best ways we can reach out and show the believers of Islam that we care about them is to welcome them with open arms.  These are the people we need to embrace.  They are the reformers waiting to happen.

[Craig Arko]

Who's making who a slave, exactly?

 

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/cash-strapped-trump-campaign-auctions-chris-christie-on-ebay

[ashbury]

Who's making who a slave, exactly?

 

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/cash-strapped-trump-campaign-auctions-chris-christie-on-ebay

So then it's just three-fifths of an endorsement, right?

[PseudoSABR]

Britain just voted to leave the EU.  Nationalism is alive and well.  I wonder if underselling the same element in America, and so Trump's chances...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Britain just voted to leave the EU. Nationalism is alive and well. I wonder if underselling the same element in America, and so Trump's chances...

Yeah, it's scary. Very, very scary.

 

What the hell, England and Wales. The Irish and Scots did their part.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is so ****ing depressing.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36615028

 

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she was "absolutely determined" to keep Scotland in the EU so a second Scottish independence referendum was now "highly likely".

[TheLeviathan]

Yup, nationalism is alive and well.  Even if Trump goes down this time, don't think this trend is over.  

 

Both political extremes are feeding this growing beast.

[Mike Sixel]

I truly believe this vindicates my statements that political violence is coming to the US in the next generation. 

 

I also believe this should be a wake up call for snooty Democrats that think they are going to automatically win anything.

[TheLeviathan]

I also believe this should be a wake up call for snooty Democrats that think they are going to automatically win anything.

 

 

Yup.  The people voting for Trump are the same ones that voted for "leave" - they are the people that aren't counted in surveys, don't vote most of the time, etc.  They are outside the normal process but they're rising up to participate for Trump/Leave.  It's been happening the entire primary season.

 

Provided he actually raises money and runs a real campaign, it isn't going to be a cake walk. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yup.  The people voting for Trump are the same ones that voted for "leave" - they are the people that aren't counted in surveys, don't vote most of the time, etc.  They are outside the normal process but they're rising up to participate for Trump/Leave.  It's been happening the entire primary season.

There's definitely a rising tide of nationalism and the British leaving the EU is a terrible sign of things to come... But the political climate is different enough that I still think Clinton wins barring some catastrophe:

 

1. The electoral college can actually help the US in this situation. Clinton has all but sewn up most of the big states, which virtually guarantees her 200+ electoral votes before the election even begins.

 

2. The EU exit vote was won on the back of England and Wales, the two population centers of the UK. Northern Ireland and Scotland are the UK equivalents of the south and midwest. In the UK, those rural areas are more liberal (as they SHOULD be) than the US, which is strictly conservative. While the rural English and Welsh dominated the vote overall (with the largest cities largely voting to remain), that kind of uprising is diminished in America because, again, we have the electoral college.

 

There are definitely reasons to be concerned but I think the two situations pretty different (though the same fear-mongering is at the root of both issues).

[Mike Sixel]

 

There's definitely a rising tide of nationalism and the British leaving the EU is a terrible sign of things to come... But the political climate is different enough that I still think Clinton wins barring some catastrophe:

 

1. The electoral college can actually help the US in this situation. Clinton has all but sewn up most of the big states, which virtually guarantees her 200+ electoral votes before the election even begins.

 

2. The EU exit vote was won on the back of England and Wales, the two population centers of the UK. Northern Ireland and Scotland are the UK equivalents of the south and midwest. In the UK, those rural areas are more liberal (as they SHOULD be) than the US, which is strictly conservative. While the rural English and Welsh dominated the vote overall (with the largest cities largely voting to remain), that kind of uprising is diminished in America because, again, we have the electoral college.

 

There are definitely reasons to be concerned but I think the two situations pretty different (though the same fear-mongering is at the root of both issues).

 

I guess if one only looks at Clinton, and not the Senate, House, governorships, and state houses......but I think everyone on the "over educated" side is really, really, really underestimating the likely turn out from those that agree with Trump.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I guess if one only looks at Clinton, and not the Senate, House, governorships, and state houses......but I think everyone on the "over educated" side is really, really, really underestimating the likely turn out from those that agree with Trump.

 

I agree.  Here's one thing to look at:  On the surface it seems to back up what you're saying Brock, but if you dig a little deeper it's easy to see this swinging.  The "safe" states give Dems a 190-142 edge, but look at the states that are counted here as leaning left:

 

Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Nevada - just if you flip those to Trump (not outlandish to happen in any way whatsoever) - the race suddenly becomes 280-258 Trump.  If you don't like those states, you can probably swap Virginia and NC as potential Trump wins.  

 

It's really not that safe.  And the people that will decide this election are likely not going to be counted until election day.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree.  Here's one thing to look at:  On the surface it seems to back up what you're saying Brock, but if you dig a little deeper it's easy to see this swinging.  The "safe" states give Dems a 190-142 edge, but look at the states that are counted here as leaning left:

 

Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Nevada - just if you flip those to Trump (not outlandish to happen in any way whatsoever) - the race suddenly becomes 280-258 Trump.  If you don't like those states, you can probably swap Virginia and NC as potential Trump wins.  

 

It's really not that safe.  And the people that will decide this election are likely not going to be counted until election day.

Oh, I agree it's not safe but the numbers are generally on Clinton's side.

 

But definitely not safe.

[Mike Sixel]

Pennsylvania was Obama's narrowest win, I think......and 538 thinks Clinton is already over confident there....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I guess if one only looks at Clinton, and not the Senate, House, governorships, and state houses......but I think everyone on the "over educated" side is really, really, really underestimating the likely turn out from those that agree with Trump.

Sure, but it's *really* unlikely the Republicans will gain traction in the Senate. The numbers are stacked heavily against them. The GOP has 24 Senate seats up for grabs, the Democrats have just 10.

 

As for the House, the Republicans already have a significant advantage. Given the gerrymandering we've put in place over the past few decades, I don't think there's much more the GOP can do.

 

And there are some really interesting battleground areas that simply weren't in play in past elections. Hell, John McCain is fighting hard to keep his Senate seat because so many Arizonans hate Trump. If anyone should be a shoe-in for reelection, it's a guy like McCain.

 

It's possible Trump will hurt his party more than he helps it by bringing out the typical non-voters and nationalists. Some classic non-voting demographics could show up in force just to stop the man: primarily Hispanics, which have massive influence in some crucial states (Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, etc).

[Mike Sixel]

It's possible, I think it is largely unpredictable right now. 

 

Hell, yesterday people invested like BREXIT was not going to happen.....

[TheLeviathan]

 

It's possible, I think it is largely unpredictable right now. 

 

Hell, yesterday people invested like BREXIT was not going to happen.....

 

Exactly.  The "swing vote" here is very nebulous and hard to pin down.  As I expect it will be for Trump also.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Exactly.  The "swing vote" here is very nebulous and hard to pin down.  As I expect it will be for Trump also.

Definitely, but that blade cuts both ways.

 

We're seeing the last gasps of white conservatism/nationalism right now. I hold out hope that America, unlike England/Wales, is diverse enough to weather the storm... Time will tell.

[twinsnorth49]

Meh, Britain has always been a reluctant member of the EU to begin with, it doesn't use the Euro, regularly opts out of  major agreements and has had  an obstructionist approach almost from the beginning. Simple fact is the English simply don't trust the rest of Europe when it comes to their Sovereignty.

 

 This isn't surprising and is a probably a benefit to the EU more than anything.  It's a broken organisation, maybe this is finally what it needs to right itself.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Meh, Britain has always been a reluctant member of the EU to begin with, it doesn't use the Euro, regularly opts out of  major agreements and has had  an obstructionist approach almost from the beginning. Simple fact is the English simply don't trust the rest of Europe when it comes to their Sovereignty.

 

 This isn't surprising and is a probably a benefit to the EU more than anything.  It's a broken organisation, maybe this is finally what it needs to right itself.

I don't see it being a benefit to the EU. They just lost their financial center and one of the largest export bases of the union.

 

And god forbid if another Greece situation arises. Can Germany and France bear that weight by themselves? And what happens if it's a larger country this time around, like Italy or Spain?

 

Never mind that Scotland is all but gone from the UK at this point. I'd put 50/50 odds on Northern Ireland doing the same.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Definitely, but that blade cuts both ways.

 

We're seeing the last gasps of white conservatism/nationalism right now. I hold out hope that America, unlike England/Wales, is diverse enough to weather the storm... Time will tell.

 

Oh I don't disagree, but here's the thing: we already know the groups the Democrats need to get out.   We also know they struggle like hell to do it.  (They're ramping up that rhetoric, which is smart)  We don't know if they'll come out.

 

Trump's nebulous numbers WILL.  The question is how many are there.

[Mike Sixel]

Trump is either going to embolden Democrat voters to turn out in yuge numbers, or win....

[twinsnorth49]

 

I don't see it being a benefit to the EU. They just lost their financial center and one of the largest export bases of the union.

 

And god forbid if another Greece situation arises. Can Germany and France bear that weight by themselves? And what happens if it's a larger country this time around, like Italy or Spain?

 

Never mind that Scotland is all but gone from the UK at this point. I'd put 50/50 odds on Northern Ireland doing the same.

They pick and choose what they want anyway, including anything that threatens them financially. The fact they never adopted the EMS and subsequently the Euro pretty much makes it moot to being with.

 

There are numerous issues within the EU organisational structure, Britain just keeps exacerbating them and pretty much acts on it's own accord anyway. If it allows the EU to fix what's broken, then it may be of some benefit, that's all.

[Mike Sixel]

In fairness......I understand this vote. I think it is probably the wrong choice, but I understand it.

 

it would be like the US NE finally seceding, and allowing the South to try to actually pay for itself.....