Adam Brett Walker

[KirbyHawk75]

Hi, Do the people who know much better than me, do you think Walker has potential to be an everyday player?  His struggles to make contact concerns me.  Also, how is his defense in the outfield?  How is his arm?  Thanks!!

[nytwinsfan]

 

Hi, Do the people who know much better than me, do you think Walker has potential to be an everyday player?  His struggles to make contact concerns me.  Also, how is his defense in the outfield?  How is his arm?  Thanks!!

 

Good questions. Just funny because there have been many posts/threads devoted to the exhaustive debate of just these issues. Walker's potential is very very divisive.

[Vance_Christianson]

I honestly think that Walker is going to be in the Pro's in the next 18 months, especially if he keeps getting 20+hr's and 100+rbi's. If I recall he has a big arm, and avg defense. Sounds like a RF to me. I'm assuming he's going to be in AA this year, and he should kill it there. He's going to have Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, etc. Runs Runs Runs, that means RBI RBI RBI for Walker! Walker's avg has never been great, but he knows how to come through in the clutch!

[gunnarthor]

 

Hi, Do the people who know much better than me, do you think Walker has potential to be an everyday player?  His struggles to make contact concerns me.  Also, how is his defense in the outfield?  How is his arm?  Thanks!!

Jason Parks used to work at BP and is now a scout for the Cubs.  He said that Walker is a "first division" type player if (IF is a common word used around Walker) he could control the zone.  His defense is first rate and his arm is pretty accurate.  He's also a solid baserunner.

 

IF it all came together for Walker (a HUGE IF), think a slightly more rangy Cuddyer - a very solid RFer who, in some years, could be an all-star.  

 

But, again, the plate discipline is such a big problem that it's far more likely that he doesn't get beyond AA.

[Mike Sixel]

It's a big year for Walker, imo, to show he can control himself around the zone more.....if he can show decent (not great) improvement, it would give you hope that can continue. He's a legit prospect, imo.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If he harnesses the control, he will be a star. I don't think that's really up for debate. The debate is around the word 'if'. His defense from what I understand is pretty good, so even if he can never control the plate, he could carve out a career as a late inning (high leverage) offensive sub/defensive replacement.

[ExpectMorePayLess]

Read this in today's MLB Blog:

http://redwingsbaseball.mlblogs.com/2015/03/27/fort-myers-report-day-two/

 

Brock Peterson and Adam Brett Walker were two of the non-roster Minor League guys who got to suit up for the Twins today vs. the Pirates. 

Walker is an intriguing prospect who will likely start the season with the Twins new Double-A affiliate in Chattanooga.  Walker easily led the Florida State League in HRs last year with 25 and has immense power. He also tied for the league lead in strikeouts with 156. If everything comes together for Walker, he could be a tremendous power hitter. I’ve heard that in the past week Walker has hit SIX home runs in Minor League exhibition games including FOUR off the batters eye in center field.

 

 

He's doing this against AA competition too.  He seems to continue to do the same thing at every level and we keep waiting for him to fail.  

 

The question becomes (yes or no) would you want him on your team (Twins) if he continued to lead the league in home runs - rbi - total bases & strikeouts, yet also continued his poor contact rate & career .312 OBP?  That's the yes or no question we all need to answer to end this debate regarding his worth!  Period! No yeah buts or ifs.................

[ExpectMorePayLess]

Radio said he made a great catch in the gap today too.

[gunnarthor]

 

Read this in today's MLB Blog:

http://redwingsbaseball.mlblogs.com/2015/03/27/fort-myers-report-day-two/

 

 

He's doing this against AA competition too.  He seems to continue to do the same thing at every level and we keep waiting for him to fail.  

 

The question becomes (yes or no) would you want him on your team (Twins) if he continued to lead the league in home runs - rbi - total bases & strikeouts, yet also continued his poor contact rate & career .312 OBP?  That's the yes or no question we all need to answer to end this debate regarding his worth!  Period! No yeah buts or ifs.................

If he was putting up something like a .275/.312/.500 line and playing good RF defense at the ML, yes, he'd be a good player.  The concern is that he will have an on-base well below that.

[Thrylos]

 

If he was putting up something like a .275/.312/.500 line and playing good RF defense at the ML, yes, he'd be a good player.  The concern is that he will have an on-base well below that.

 

 

well, yeah, that's the thing.  His contact rates and walk rates are abysmal.  I'd say that today he is like a Steve Balboni or Jay Buhner comparable, maybe (thinking floors and ceilings) . With a tad less defense.

[lightfoot789]

I like how Expectmore  thinks.   Everyone is talking "when and ifs" and no one is appreciating the here and now.   "I believe he will probably do this"   "I believe he will probably do that"  History has proven this and History has proven that.   As a professional his only flaw is that he doesn't get on base enough or make enough contact to be "effective" in the future.   Which is defined as abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvxyz?

 

For the record - Walker had more BB's than everyone in AA and AAA last year except Romero.  Again the bad in this kid brings out major criticism.   I know you will justify his flaws some way, but dang - Abysmal?  

 

6 HRs in a week is pretty impressive regardless to contact rate. And especially at the AA level.

 

Thrylos  "well, yeah, that's the thing.His contact rates and walk rates are abysmal".

[lightfoot789]

I'm taking it Thrylos wouldn't want those stats on his team if he continuously does like he's always done at every level of his professional career.   Produce and WIN

 

He Averages 33 HRs and 124 RBI and 102 Runs per 160 games.  Not to mention the 6 Triples and 28 Doubles and 47 Walks per 160 games.  I didn't forget the 173 Ks per 160 either.  Drop those stats down to 25 and 90 at the MLB level.  Would you want him was the question proposed?

 

BaIboni (11 year MLB career)  Buhner (15 year MLB career) 

 

That was my last comment on this thread (promise)

[Paul Pleiss]

ABW will play big league baseball. I think the real question is for how long.

[HitInAPinch]

No matter what the lower-level stats say, this will be a huge year for Walker at AA Chattanooga.

[Thrylos]

 

I'm taking it Thrylos wouldn't want those stats on his team if he continuously does like he's always done at every level of his professional career.   Produce and WIN

 

He Averages 33 HRs and 124 RBI and 102 Runs per 160 games.  Not to mention the 6 Triples and 28 Doubles and 47 Walks per 160 games.  I didn't forget the 173 Ks per 160 either.  Drop those stats down to 25 and 90 at the MLB level.  Would you want him was the question proposed?

 

BaIboni (11 year MLB career)  Buhner (15 year MLB career) 

 

That was my last comment on this thread (promise)

 

HRs are (often) park-dependent and RBI are opportunity-dependent.   WAR is probably the best stat to describe someone's career, esp. in a retrospective view.

 

Steve Balboni had a career 2.8 fWAR, including a single year of 2.6 WAR, so he was replacement level.  Not average.  Replacement. Level.  (think Colabello/Parmelee level.)  That's Walker's floor

 

Jay Buhner had a career 22 fWAR which included a couple seasons of around 3, a 3+ (All Star season) and the rest around 1.  Alright player, but not a star.  That's Walker's ceiling.

 

LIkely, he will be some place in-between.  Of course, if he starts making contact, and take a ball or two, I might change my mind about his future (and that can happen, since he is developing...)   

[gunnarthor]

 

No matter what the lower-level stats say, this will be a huge year for Walker at AA Chattanooga.

Yep.  If he sinks, he's Angel Morales.  But if he swims, I think he could really shoot up the prospect rankings.  If we could just somehow combine his power with Harrison's plate discipline .... 

[GMinTraining]

Harrison actually had more Ks than Walker in 2013.  Maybe Walker can bounce back like his league MVP 2013 numbers (20% K rate).

 

I listened to MLB station the other day and they talked about WAR.  To my amazement - The teams with the best WAR over the last 25 years has made the World Series only 5 times.  They said it was a good stat but not completely telling of a players true value.

 

I agree - Big season for Walker

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

Steve Balboni had a career 2.8 fWAR, including a single year of 2.6 WAR, so he was replacement level.  Not average.  Replacement. Level.  (think Colabello/Parmelee level.)  That's Walker's floor

 

Jay Buhner had a career 22 fWAR which included a couple seasons of around 3, a 3+ (All Star season) and the rest around 1.  Alright player, but not a star.  That's Walker's ceiling.

 

LIkely, he will be some place in-between.  Of course, if he starts making contact, and take a ball or two, I might change my mind about his future (and that can happen, since he is developing...)   

 

I like this... I think that's a good range for Walker's potential... In either case, he's a guy that they will want to protect after this season. He's got work to do, no question, but there is a lot of potential.

[gunnarthor]

 

Harrison actually had more Ks than Walker in 2013.  Maybe Walker can bounce back like his league MVP 2013 numbers (20% K rate).

 

I listened to MLB station the other day and they talked about WAR.  To my amazement - The teams with the best WAR over the last 25 years has made the World Series only 5 times.  They said it was a good stat but not completely telling of a players true value.

 

I agree - Big season for Walker

Well, I guess that's true but Harrison did a great job improving his plate discipline.  His walk rate was 12% and his strike out was only 16%.  Walker was 8% and 28%.

[Steven Buhr]

Yeah, Harrison really needed to improve his plate discipline a year ago and he did so, perhaps at the expense of power. Walker continued to flash the power without improving the plate discipline. It's an interesting comparison, really.

 

I do know that I would take either guy on my team and I wouldn't bet against both of them eventually being productive big leaguers.

 

Also, FWIW, Walker absolutely tattooed a ball today. Line drive home run to LF against a stiff breeze. Just destroyed the ball.

[nicksaviking]

 

6 HRs in a week is pretty impressive regardless to contact rate. And especially at the AA level.

Yeah that's great, I hope he fixes his huge flaw and is an outstanding MLB player someday.

 

But he'll hit no HR at the MLB level currently as MLB pitchers can and will throw six inches outside the zone knowing he'll chase anything they throw.

[GMinTraining]

Analyzing this kid becomes more difficult each day.  I heard he had more 3-2 counts than anyone on the Miracle team last year, yet I hear that all he does is swing at bad pitches as though never taking a ball.  I also heard that most of his hits came with 2 strikes.   He had an 8 pitch AB yesterday with the MLB team before striking out.  

 

How do you analyze that problem?  Obviously seeing enough pitches yet swinging at the wrong ones in full count situations?  Does he just take the looking K if it's anywhere close, just to work on his plate discipline?  Guaranteed to earn more walks.  I truly don't know.  

 

What would be your coaching point for a guy who leads his team in 3-2 counts and leads the league in Ks? It was also stated that he isn't a 3 pitch, free swinging,  K guy, as is often posted.  If that is the case - What would be your advice for this kid?

 

Does working full counts even matter in the eyes of a coach, if you're still striking out or does that make you more fixable?

[2wins87]

He hasn't performed poorly but when you look past the home runs he hasn't really done anything all that impressive either.  Travis Harrison has already been brought up, and they've received a very similar number of plate appearances at every level so it's a good comparison.  Harrison actually had a point higher wRC+ than Walker last year.  Overall in their minor league careers they've put up very a very similar wRC+.  Walker certainly has the edge in defense and baserunning, but at the plate he's had the same output (through different means) as Travis Harrison.  Harrison is also a year younger.

 

So Walker's inability to take a walk really limits his offensive output, and given his trouble making contact, I'm not optimistic about how he'll fare against more advanced pitching.  He's certainly an interesting prospect, but I don't think we can expect too much if his plate discipline doesn't improve significantly.

[lightfoot789]

I'm looking for an improvement like he had in Low A when he improved his K rate by 10%.  That has always been his problem and I agree it is a problem.  The scary part is what he might be able to do if he indeed made those adjustments (just slightly).  It was good to hear what Molitor and Ryan thought about him as a prospect.   It answers some of the questions about his defensive upside and reconfirms what most have said about his hitting potential & issues.

 

Prospect Walker Has Power Potential

Twins prospect Adam Brett Walker started in right field for Sunday’s game and found himself sandwiched in the lineup between two of the Twins’ top power sources in Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia.

 

“I’ve seen Adam enough to know he’s a gifted kid, very athletic,” Molitor said about the 23-year-old outfielder. “Runs well for a big man. He’s got a lot of power. I think he’s learning on how to try to be a little bit of a better hitter.”

 

Molitor mentioned that Walker needed to cut down on the strikeouts, a fact that seemed evident as he led all of the system with 156 whiffs in 2014. He also pounded 25 home runs -- in the home run suppressing environment of the Florida State League, no less -- and led all of the Twins minor leaguers in that category as well.  Baseball America recognized Walker as having the farm’s best power.

 

WATCH: Adam Walker Takes A Swing Versus The Orioles

 

Twins general manager Terry Ryan echoed Molitor’s assessment regarding Walker’s power and athleticism but added the rest of his game needed to be refined.

 

“You look at him physically and you expect to see some raw power out of the man. He has that. It’s just the matter of the rest of his game. He’s athletic. He can run. We’ve had him in the outfield and he’s OK. Now it’s just a matter of firming up the bat, taking good at bats. He’s certainly a threat.”

 

Can the big man stay in the outfield or is he a DH-type waiting in the wings?
 

“He can go get a ball. His range, his ability to cover ground is fine. That bat of his is something we are anxiously awaiting to see how it develops.”

 

 

 

[lightfoot789]

Harrison actually had a point higher wRC+ than Walker last year.  Overall in their minor league careers they've put up very a very similar wRC+.

 

BTW - I love Travis Harrison as well.  I'm expecting a huge year from him.  

[GMinTraining]

 

ABW will play big league baseball. I think the real question is for how long.

 

I agree with Pleiss.  He will play in the big leagues someday.  He is still extremely young.  To be 23 years old the entire AA season ain't bad.  The average age for the Southern League for batters is 24.5 and pitchers 24.4 years old.  Either way - he would be below or at average age if he stayed in AA for the next 2 years.  I'll take a 25 year old rookie who can hit 25 and 100 for the next 7 MLB seasons.

 

 

[2wins87]

 

BTW - I love Travis Harrison as well.  I'm expecting a huge year from him.  

 

Yeah I like them both.  I think they both look like marginal major league type players right now, but are just a couple steps from being really solid major league talents.  Harrison needs to develop his game power and Walker needs to develop his plate discipline.

 

I think it's interesting that people tend to look at Harrison's production and be a little underwhelmed, but look at Walker and come away impressed.  But when you take a holistic look at their production with wOBA or wRC+ they are remarkably similar.

[diehardtwinsfan]

well, plate discipline tends to translate well to the bigs.  A lack of it is well known to hurt in the bigs.  That's the difference between Walker and Harrison.  I think Walker has the higher ceiling, but in terms of being a productive major leaguer, right now, Harrison is more likely to succeed.  It's hard to balance that kind of stuff out on a prospect ranking.

 

That said, back to Walker, I think this year will tell whether or not he has a major league future.  If he can put up similar numbers in AA than he did in A+, then I'll be much more confident of his ability to make the jump and be a productive major leaguer.  People forget though that he was pretty overmatched his first couple months in A+ ball.  The good is that he adjusted.  Hopefully he can continue to adjust, but I won't be surprised at all if he struggles to start AA too.   I can live with a .312 OBP from a guy that will consistently hit 30-40 home runs, but the main question I have for him right now is whether or not he can realistically maintain a >.300 OBP in the majors.  With his contact issues as they are in high A, I'm not sold.  The jump to AA is considered the 2nd hardest minor league jump (with the jump to the majors being the hardest), if he can do that successfully, I'll be much confident in his ability to be a productive major leaguer.

[GMinTraining]

 

I think it's interesting that people tend to look at Harrison's production and be a little underwhelmed, but look at Walker and come away impressed.  But when you take a holistic look at their production with wOBA or wRC+ they are remarkably similar.

 

 

 

As fans we can't ask for production from players and then in the next breath say it's overrated.  If you take away Walkers personal runs scored from his 25 HRs, he still had 10 more RBI than Harrison (94 to 59).  That tells me that Walker could still be productive even without the HRs.   At least he has shown that through 3 minor league seasons.  

 

I have a feeling that we will be doubting Walker at every level regardless to results, until he is consistent in the more important stat lines.  Walker is definitely no Mike Trout, but I think he can lead the league in HRs and RBI and Strikeouts just like Trout did in 2014.   Lol

 

[Seth Stohs]

Walker is DHing and batting 6th today for the Twins. It's normal for the Twins (and other teams) to bring minor leaguers to games to come in late innings, but Walker has now started twice in the last 3-4 games.