Article: Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Countdown: 11-15

[gunnarthor]

I guess what I see is a few disconnects.  The guy has only one pitch, but has put up, at 18 in rookie leagues:

 

28 IP, .95 ERA, and 39 K. 

 

Then as a 19 year old in E-Town and Low A 

 

65 IP, 3.02 ERA, 70 K.  In total, a 10.5 K and 3.1 BB per 9.

 

Seems like really good numbers with just one pitch. 

 

So if you start with those numbers and velocity and improve the breaking ball, it seems like he could have a higher ceiling than a #3 starter.  Projecting anything of value out of Kepler certainly involves a lot of improvement upon what we have seen thus far.

Finding numbers like that isn't that hard.  Alexander Smit as a 17 year old in rookie ball:

38 ip, 1.18era 40k.  At 19, he struck out 140 in 95 innings between rookie and A ball.  Gaby Hernandez put up similar numbers - 52ip, 1.03era, 64k at 18 in rookie and A ball.  At 19, he dominated low A and was promoted to A+.  Neither guy ever made the majors.  And I wasn't hunting for them, I just randomly looked at GCL pitching leaders from 2003 and then 2004.  Tons of guys have dominated that level.

 

Did you read the link in my post?  It's a good explanation for the different level of pitchers.  And pitchers can play above their ranking.  Radke was a #3 who had multiple ace level seasons.  I really like Gonsalves, I'd rank him ahead of Kepler and think he's the Twins breakout guy this year.  But his ceiling is a #3 and it's not crazy to like Kepler more.  That's all I'm trying to say.

Edited February 5, 2015 by gunnarthor

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Seth: I don't think a lot of people understand the option situation for Kepler, so tell us that again. It was only clear in the Prospect Handbook. I had never seen that information before. 

 

Start a clock when a player makes his full-season debut. If he's out of options before year 5, he get a 4th option year. Essentially, if you're added after your first full season, you get a 4th option year, if needed. 

 

That's why it really didn't matter that the Twins almost burned an option year on Arcia last year, then didn't... cause, regardless, he was getting an option year this year.

 

Polanco and Kepler were both added after their first year in Cedar Rapids - so of course you add them - cause that next year (their first option year) essentially served as a redshirt year to their next three option years.

[Steve Lein]

I love Joe Mauer and he has a lifetime .401 OBP. That has resulted in him averaging 68 runs scored per season over 11 years and 62 RBI per season. For a guy hitting in the middle of the order, those numbers should be much higher. It is not any fault of his, but results in the fact that he doesn't have 6 or 7 other guys on his team who can do what he does. High OBP players need run producers behind them like Vargas and Sano.... Baseball critics crucify Votto because he takes too many BBs in situations where his team needs run production.

 

This is one of my exact criticisms of Mauer. For as good of a hitter as he is, he has always been way too passive in RBI producing situations. He treats it the same as any other at-bat, and primarily works the count to get on-base if he can. He takes too many walks just like Votto.

 

This is also a reason where I'm not necessarily in the camp that always defends Mauer's abilities as an 'elite' player. His skill set relies a lot on the other players in the lineup to make him truly stand out (outside of his MVP season). In this way I tend to argue with the people who call others idiots for pointing out his flaws. Mauer is definitely a great player, but it's a different kind of great than they are trying to defend, in my opinion.

[Thrylos]

 

DeVries and Fox WERE in fact ranked prospects at one point.

 

Yes, but those Twins' systems were not like this.  When those guys were 20-some then, they would not make the top 60 now.  That was the time when Tyler Robertson was the Twins' top prospect and Swarzak a top 5 prospect    Thankfully the cows are fatter now

[tobi0040]

Finding numbers like that isn't that hard.  Alexander Smit as a 17 year old in rookie ball:

38 ip, 1.18era 40k.  At 19, he struck out 140 in 95 innings between rookie and A ball.  Gaby Hernandez put up similar numbers - 52ip, 1.03era, 64k at 18 in rookie and A ball.  At 19, he dominated low A and was promoted to A+.  Neither guy ever made the majors.  And I wasn't hunting for them, I just randomly looked at GCL pitching leaders from 2003 and then 2004.  Tons of guys have dominated that level.

 

Did you read the link in my post?  It's a good explanation for the different level of pitchers.  And pitchers can play above their ranking.  Radke was a #3 who had multiple ace level seasons.  I really like Gonsalves, I'd rank him ahead of Kepler and think he's the Twins breakout guy this year.  But his ceiling is a #3 and it's not crazy to like Kepler more.  That's all I'm trying to say.

 

To be fair, looking may not have taken a lot of effort.  But searching for the guy that led the league in pitching over a two year period certainly was an efficient way to search through a lot of pitchers.

 

I was going off you saying he had one plus pitch (which you said may not even be plus).  Looks like other posters and even Law, who does not like him disagree (says plus fastball and change up).

 

I just don't get the optimism about Kepler. I have found I am much less excited about him than others are and that is driving my opinions here. To me, Gonsalves is younger, has put up better numbers, and has more upside.  Others disagree and that is fine. 

 

On a side note, if Gonsalves throws 95 as a starter and has a good change, he could be setting himself up as a high end reliever as a floor.

[nicksaviking]

I think some are underestimating how difficult and perhaps even rare it is for a guy going on 20 to develop a third pitch almost from scratch and that pitch actually becoming useful.

[nytwinsfan]

I think some are underestimating how difficult and perhaps even rare it is for a guy going on 20 to develop a third pitch almost from scratch and that pitch actually becoming useful.

Don't a lot of pitchers develop a changeup in their lower 20s? And isn't a curveball generally considered easier to learn than a changeup (hence why most pitchers learn the changeup later)? I'm genuinely asking, as I don't really know much about pitcher development.

[Thrylos]

.I really do hope Gonsalves velocity is "developing."  The numbers look great, but I thought he was throwing harder in HS.  If anyone has info on the history of his velocity I'd love to hear it.  I guess otherwise we'll have to assume it was a case of pitcher friendly radar guns.

Lots of people probably will argue with the Walker ranking. 

 

Gonsalves' FB velocity at high school was 88-92, pretty much the same as in the pros.  Occasionally he throws a couple bit higher than that.  He cuts the ball a bit too, thus the lower spectrum ones.  His change is an out pitch and his curveball is not as horrible as some think.  He used to have a slow curve and a slider, both of which were horrible and he dropped them; not sure that this is common knowledge.  He now has a faster more compact curve that shows some promise.  His biggest issue is mechanics (and consistency/command of his secondary stuff because of that.)  He is 20, he will be fine.

 

I'd argue that Walker is ranked high

[nater79a]

In the Twinkie Town interview with Rob Antony the asst GM touched a bit on the subject of Taylor Rogers. The only real concern with him is his tall, slender frame and how that profiles long-term as a starter. Can he hold up over 180 or 190 innings a year.  Antony reiterated that they definitely plan to keep using Rogers as a starter but could be a bullpen piece if it doesn't work out. 

[Shane Wahl]

Start a clock when a player makes his full-season debut. If he's out of options before year 5, he get a 4th option year. Essentially, if you're added after your first full season, you get a 4th option year, if needed. 

 

That's why it really didn't matter that the Twins almost burned an option year on Arcia last year, then didn't... cause, regardless, he was getting an option year this year.

 

Polanco and Kepler were both added after their first year in Cedar Rapids - so of course you add them - cause that next year (their first option year) essentially served as a redshirt year to their next three option years.

 

Thanks. There is a lot of misinformation out there about this. I don't remember any talk about this at the end of 2013 when they were added.

[Thrylos]

Don't a lot of pitchers develop a changeup in their lower 20s? And isn't a curveball generally considered easier to learn than a changeup (hence why most pitchers learn the changeup later)? I'm genuinely asking, as I don't really know much about pitcher development.

 

Depends on the kids' youth and high school coaches really.  Lots of aggressive coaches have kids throw curves (and full grip curves vs knuckle curves) too young.  Those kids (which includes pretty much most Latin American kids) come out with a fastball and a curve/slider (and arm problems.)  Change up is a more difficult pitch to master because it has the same arm motion as the fastball just it is a different feel and it is a different pitch for everyone pretty much (thus about 6-7 different change up types.)  Meyer just learned it last off-season.  Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson all learned it as adults as well.  If you look at the reason why relievers do not make it as starters is that they luck the change up.  Most of them have a fastball and a breaking ball.

 

A plus change and a fastball with command and control are two great things to see in a pitching prospect

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'd argue that Walker is ranked high

 

Those know-nothings at Baseball America had Walker at #17. Four spots behind Turner and nine spots ahead of Minier.

[Thrylos]

Those know-nothings at Baseball America had Walker at #17. Four spots behind Turner and nine spots ahead of Minier.

 

I would not call the writer who compiled that last 2 Twins lists for Baseball America a "know-nothing".  He actually has watched most of those players play (unlike Callis and Mayo and the people who compile the fangraphs and bp lists.  That's why they all look pretty much the same; they are derivative)

Edited February 5, 2015 by Thrylos

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I would not call the writer who compiled that last 2 Twins lists for Baseball America a "know-nothing".  He actually has watched most of those players play (unlike Callis and Mayo and the people who compile the fangraphs and bp lists.  That's why they all look pretty much the same; they are derivative)

 

I thought you'd pick up the sarcasm dripping from that comment. 

[Dantes929]

I love Joe Mauer and he has a lifetime .401 OBP. That has resulted in him averaging 68 runs scored per season over 11 years and 62 RBI per season. For a guy hitting in the middle of the order, those numbers should be much higher. It is not any fault of his, but results in the fact that he doesn't have 6 or 7 other guys on his team who can do what he does. High OBP players need run producers behind them like Vargas and Sano. Regardless to how much they get on base. The game is about timely hits not just hits and getting on base. Baseball critics crucify Votto because he takes too many BBs in situations where his team needs run production. I'm hoping Walker can learn to get on base more, but I'd rather he have more productive ABs in terms of productive RBI (runner on 3rd and no outs).

Just my own belief but to me Mauer produces more runs than that don't show up as RBI or runs scored for him than any other player over the years.    Cuddyer, Morneau, Thome, etc. were all beneficiaries of having guys on 3rd or 2nd and third with less than 2 outs where sharp base hits, ground outs and sac flies got RBI for them while Mauer got neither runs scored or RBI while helping score that run or two. 

[bird]

Yes, but those Twins' systems were not like this.  When those guys were 20-some then, they would not make the top 60 now.  That was the time when Tyler Robertson was the Twins' top prospect and Swarzak a top 5 prospect    Thankfully the cows are fatter now

You're absolutely right about how thin the cows were back then, Thrylos. But actually Swarzak was the consensus top-ranked pitcher then, followed by the incomparable Shooter Hunt. Mijares was a distant third. The following pitchers were also in someone's top ten at the time: Mulvey, Delaney, Manship, Slama, Guttierrez, Robertson, Deolis Guerra, and Bromberg. McCardell, Duensing, Humber, and Lanigan also got higher ranks than DeVries, who at least outranked Alex Burnett, for God's sake. And Thry, you were the only one in the Milky Way Galaxy to rank PEDRO Guerra back then. . Just sayin'.

 

Oswaldo Arcia and Josmil Pinto were not ranked by anyone. Just sayin'.

[Seth Stohs]

For those that got the Twins Prospect Handbook, my personal ranking for this group was: Rogers 11, Thorpe 12, Kepler 13, Walker 14, Gonsalves 15.

 

I really like Gonsalves and think he has very good potential. Rogers has done well up to AA. It's unfortunate that he missed so much AFL time. As far as the concern about him not being able to go 180+ innings, that's fair because he is long and thin. But again, when I read reports of him having 3 solid pitches including a fastball that touches 95, I can't help but get excited. Now if Gonsalves can put together a strong first full season, he absolutely can move way up this list. 

[gunnarthor]

From a BP chat yesterday - 

 

Rick (St Paul): Stephen Gonsavles and Juan De Leon - how much is there with these young pitchers?

Jordan Gorosh: Both interesting. Gonzalves is a long, lean 6'5 LHP with the potential for three average pitches or slightly above.

[Seth Stohs]

Yes, but those Twins' systems were not like this.  When those guys were 20-some then, they would not make the top 60 now.  That was the time when Tyler Robertson was the Twins' top prospect and Swarzak a top 5 prospect    Thankfully the cows are fatter now

 

I think DeVries squeeked into a Top 50 prospect list of mine one year, maybe... I don't think Fox ever did. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'm going to error on the side of optimism that Thorpe's elbow was nothing but a hiccup. This group of mine went like this...

 

8 – Lewis Thorpe – LHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels
.

.

.
14 – Max Kepler – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle
15 – Taylor Rogers – LHP – New Britain Rock Cats
16 – Adam Brett Walker – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle
17 – Stephen Gonsalves – LHP – Elizabethton, Cedar Rapids
18 – Stuart Turner – C – Ft. Myers Miracle

 

I think we can see how there is a pretty solid "bunch" in this range.

[Shane Wahl]

To be fair, looking may not have taken a lot of effort.  But searching for the guy that led the league in pitching over a two year period certainly was an efficient way to search through a lot of pitchers.

 

I was going off you saying he had one plus pitch (which you said may not even be plus).  Looks like other posters and even Law, who does not like him disagree (says plus fastball and change up).

 

I just don't get the optimism about Kepler. I have found I am much less excited about him than others are and that is driving my opinions here. To me, Gonsalves is younger, has put up better numbers, and has more upside.  Others disagree and that is fine. 

 

On a side note, if Gonsalves throws 95 as a starter and has a good change, he could be setting himself up as a high end reliever as a floor.

 

To be fair, looking may not have taken a lot of effort.  But searching for the guy that led the league in pitching over a two year period certainly was an efficient way to search through a lot of pitchers.

 

I was going off you saying he had one plus pitch (which you said may not even be plus).  Looks like other posters and even Law, who does not like him disagree (says plus fastball and change up).

 

I just don't get the optimism about Kepler. I have found I am much less excited about him than others are and that is driving my opinions here. To me, Gonsalves is younger, has put up better numbers, and has more upside.  Others disagree and that is fine. 

 

On a side note, if Gonsalves throws 95 as a starter and has a good change, he could be setting himself up as a high end reliever as a floor.

 

Kepler without this last AFL showing is probably ranked lower. He has shown that he can hit and be an overall threat offensively. It's just a slightly different timetable.

[Shane Wahl]

You're absolutely right about how thin the cows were back then, Thrylos. But actually Swarzak was the consensus top-ranked pitcher then, followed by the incomparable Shooter Hunt. Mijares was a distant third. The following pitchers were also in someone's top ten at the time: Mulvey, Delaney, Manship, Slama, Guttierrez, Robertson, Deolis Guerra, and Bromberg. McCardell, Duensing, Humber, and Lanigan also got higher ranks than DeVries, who at least outranked Alex Burnett, for God's sake. And Thry, you were the only one in the Milky Way Galaxy to rank PEDRO Guerra back then. . Just sayin'.

 

Oswaldo Arcia and Josmil Pinto were not ranked by anyone. Just sayin'.

 

Pedro Guerra seemed like a good prospect. Also, I did start ranking Pinto after 2011, though I don't think it was public at that point.

[Thrylos]

 And Thry, you were the only one in the Milky Way Galaxy to rank PEDRO Guerra back then. . Just sayin'.

 

Oswaldo Arcia and Josmil Pinto were not ranked by anyone. Just sayin'.

 

Indeed.  After his ridiculous season in 2009 (0.38 ERA, 71 IP, 12 BB, 75 K, 0.789 WHIP).  Not sure what happened to him.  Played in 2012 at the Yankees organization last and he did pretty well at their pen (1.61 ERA, 56 IP, 16 BB, 61 K, 0.991 WHIP) as a 22 year old at A ball.  Not bad, but has not surfaced yet.  Wonder what happened to him...

 

Re Pinto and Arcia:   Here is a calculations-based list that has Pinto as the Twins' third best hitting prospect in 2008, right after the GCL.  And here is a more traditional one from 2010 based on production, watching them in person and scouting comments, which has Arcia at number 9 and Pinto at number 15.  (That list had also 16 year olds Sano at 7 and Kepler at 13 without playing a single game in Twins' uniform and was the first time those guys ever appeared at a prospect list )

 

You are correct, Arcia and Pinto were absent from all derivative prospect lists.  But there were there in some lists...

Edited February 5, 2015 by Thrylos

[ScrapTheNickname]

His ceiling could be higher than some think.  I think our scouts are too enamored with the fact that his mom was a figure skater and that we think he is athletic.  My personal opinion aside, most would agree Gonsalves has a ceiling of a #1 or #2 starter.  The likelihood of him reaching that obviously differs a great deal among them. Kepler will likely profile as a corner OF. So I have a tough time finding a ceiling for him as a corner OF that matches that of a top of the rotation, 6'5 lefty starter.

 

So i have actual production and projection for Gonsalves higher, age favors Gonsalves as well.  Maybe a wash if you buy the country change.  The sample size is small, but I will take a good sample that is small over a 5 year, relatively mediocre sample.

Actually both his parents were ballet dancers.

Maybe the Twins want to bring in the dancing German crowd to the ball park.

[Dantes929]

Hardly any HS arms make it out of the Midwest League for the Twins without putting in a full year.  Things have changed though, let's hope Gonsalves gives the decision makers a lot to think about.  I really do hope Gonsalves velocity is "developing."  The numbers look great, but I thought he was throwing harder in HS.  If anyone has info on the history of his velocity I'd love to hear it.  I guess otherwise we'll have to assume it was a case of pitcher friendly radar guns.

 

Speaking of...I'm going to have a hard time considering Rogers an actual prospect.  I guess any player that can make it to the majors should be considered for these lists, but I don't recall Cole DeVries or Matt Fox ever making these things.  I guess he's got the whole "crafty lefty" bit going for him, I just don't buy into that like I used to a decade ago. 

 

 

I guess I don't embrace the idea of pitchers being devalued because they throw low 90's or high 80's.   There is so much more to pitching than velocity and thinking a guy has a ceiling of DeVries or Fox just because they have the same velocity is misguided in my opinion.    Nick Bcakburn in his last lousy year was low to mid 90's with his fast ball but his command wasn't great and his movement was poor.    In contrast the last two times the Giants have won the WS their average velocity as a team was 90.8 which was average for the entire league and they threw the fastball less than any other team.   I love a good fastball but give me a guy with command and "stuff".   If a guy is doing that well and striking out people at that rate then he is different from those that have his same velocity that are not doing as well.   Its true that it might not play as well in the majors but you might as well compare him to Maddux or Buehrle rather than DeVries or Fox.

[Kwak]

Right now Walker is the most useful of this bunch.  Other teams will trade to acquire a potential slugger.  Until the Twins demonstrate that they can consistently draft/develop quality ML pitchers, their prospects will be devalued for purposes of trades.

 

Add me to the bunch that questions Kepler as a "prospect".

[bird]

Indeed.  After his ridiculous season in 2009 (0.38 ERA, 71 IP, 12 BB, 75 K, 0.789 WHIP).  Not sure what happened to him.  Played in 2012 at the Yankees organization last and he did pretty well at their pen (1.61 ERA, 56 IP, 16 BB, 61 K, 0.991 WHIP) as a 22 year old at A ball.  Not bad, but has not surfaced yet.  Wonder what happened to him...

 

Re Pinto and Arcia:   Here is a calculations-based list that has Pinto as the Twins' third best hitting prospect in 2008, right after the GCL.  And here is a more traditional one from 2010 based on production, watching them in person and scouting comments, which has Arcia at number 9 and Pinto at number 15.  (That list had also 16 year olds Sano at 7 and Kepler at 13 without playing a single game in Twins' uniform and was the first time those guys ever appeared at a prospect list )

 

You are correct, Arcia and Pinto were absent from all derivative prospect lists.  But there were there in some lists...

 

I was looking at a 2009 spreadsheet of "derivative" (whatever THAT means) lists. 

 

Say, looking at your non-derivative list from 2010, I had Trevor Plouffe and Tobias Streich flip-flopped at #'s 19 and 20, although it was a close call for me.

[ashbury]

Gonsalves seems to have a #3 ceiling, not a 1 or 2.  He might have one plus pitch (and it might not be plus) and is developing other stuff to go with it.  That's a #3 starter. 

He's 19.  Is there really concern that he's going to stop developing?  Add a pitch when he's 20, add another when he's 21, fiddle around with a fourth pitch while he's 22-23, and you've got something.  No, that's not how development works, on a clock like that, but the point is he's got time like any 19 year old prospect does.  A year's a long time at this age.  He has to make use of the time of course.

[shs_59]

^{I have this group:}

 

^{Thorpe 10th   (if Thorpe did not have the injury questions i could see him as high as 7th or 8th)}

^{Kepler 12th}

^{Gonsalves 13th}

^{Walker 16th}

^{Rogers 20th}

[nater79a]

I'm going to error on the side of optimism that Thorpe's elbow was nothing but a hiccup. This group of mine went like this...

 

8 – Lewis Thorpe – LHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels

.

.

.

14 – Max Kepler – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle

15 – Taylor Rogers – LHP – New Britain Rock Cats

16 – Adam Brett Walker – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle

17 – Stephen Gonsalves – LHP – Elizabethton, Cedar Rapids

18 – Stuart Turner – C – Ft. Myers Miracle

 

I think we can see how there is a pretty solid "bunch" in this range.

 

Jeremy is leaving slots 9-13 open because by mid-season his rankings will look something like this:

 

8. Lewis Thorpe

9. Max Murphy

10. Max Murphy

11. Max Murphy

12. Max Murphy

13. Max Murphy

14. Max Kepler

15. Taylor Rogers

 

Obviously, Murphy will be so good he'll need multiple slots. Taking on kind of bonus pool money characteristic.