Twins players season predictions

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Saw a "bold predictions" at the other MN site, but thought it would be interesting what the smarter fans would have to say here. I am copy, cut, and posting mine from the other site here.

 

Feel free to attack my terrible guesses. Stat lines are great, but story lines are encouraged and more entertaining. 

 

Buxton struggles with production and multiple minor injuries that keep him from being called up until September, if at all. Questions arise about his skills and falls out of top ten in prospect rankings next year.

 

Sano has streaky beginning to the season in the minors, with a low average and striking out more. His walk rate declines. He will make an appearance due to injury of Plouffe or Mauer, hits 2 bombs in first 3 games, but strikes out too much and does not hit well. Gets sent back down. Gets hot in second half after finding rhythm and confidence, and lights the league on fire in the second half.

 

Hicks, quietly has a good season in the field and plate. Does not get appreciated for getting on base, but rubes will be happy that he hits more singles this year and have a higher average. Doesn't hit for power or steal basses that people think he should, but is an above average player in aggregate when all said and done. Will still piss people off due to him seeming flaky.

 

Suzuki ends up being one of the worst starting catchers in the league offensively and defensively, but keeps his job for most of the season, until the Twins finally realize that last year was the outlier and not the trend.

 

Pinto doesn't get any better defensively, but is consistent with the bat, and the Twins decide the bat is worth it and give him the nod the final month or two.

 

Mauer gets 600 at bats and stays relatively healthy. Finishes top 5 in batting title and OBP, but hits between 12-16 homers, with most coming on the road. His defense improves, and quietly is applauded as underrated by the national analysts and league, but continues to get destroyed by local fans and media for what is not.

 

Vargas struggles with MLB pitching and starts losing at bats to Pinto more often. Doesn't struggle bad enough to get sent down, and shows streaks of last years surprise. Doesn't meet expectations or projections, but improves his approach the final month or two.

 

Dozier starts hot, but not as hot as last year. The power and SB's are legit, but continues to have a bad average and his OBP drops. Still ends up being a good player though. Defensively declines though. All of his stats are just slightly less than last year.

Plouffe surprises with a 20 HR season and .265 avg. Defensive is a plus. Rumors of of Twins flipping him at his highest value is rampant, but Twins hang on to him, only to see it be a one year improvement and lose their chance to get value for him.

 

Santana plays SS (terribly.) Hits for a .285 avg, but does not walk at all. Hits 5-8 HR's and steals a bunch of bases when he does get on base.

 

Arcia ends up being the worst OF in the league defensively, but hits 30 HR's. Strikes out a ton, but his AVG and OBP are respectable enough to keep his power in the lineup. Gets consideration for All Star team, but doesn't make it. Is the Twins biggest bright spot of the season.

 

Schafer does nothing, but gets most of the playing time over Hicks the first month, due to a hot first week.

 

Hunter has one of his best offensive first half seasons, but has less than 300 at bats due to old person injury. The defense is bad, but no one will notice since he will make the plays hit to him look good, but his range will be horrid and many balls will drop that people won't realize he should have gotten to and been routine.

 

Hughes ERA is over 4.00, but still has respectable season for Twins standards. Keeps his walk rate low, but K rate declines, and give up more HR's. Gets 15 wins, and improves again after the one down season.

 

Santana has an almost identical season to Hughes, but is dominant in the first half of the season, and deplorable in the second half.

 

Nolasco finishes with a 4.50 era, but mostly due a handful of really bad outings, but is otherwise a decent pitcher on par with Hughes and Santana.

 

Gibson leads the team in ERA at 3.75, but doesn't strike anyone out or go deep into games. Has a yo yo season of being great and not so great. Shows improvement though.

 

May gets shifted to the bullpen and is dominant in that role. Takes over the closer role in the second half. He fails in his few opportunities as a starter at the start of the season.

 

Meyer lights it up...in the minors. Right when everyone is screaming for the Twins to bring him up...he needs season ending shoulder or elbow surgery. Never spends a day in the majors.

 

Perkins struggles all year, and losses his job.Twins shut him down with some minor injury.

Our prospects all have better than expected seasons, and the "future" talk continues with different names and dates being used. But not many get brought up at all.

 

Stewart and the Aussie kid have crazy good years in the minors and shoot to top ten prospects in all lists the next year.

 

*That I am wrong on almost every one of these predictions, except one that seems so spot on that makes me look not as dumb as I actually am. 

 

That a topic like this already exists and someone overreacts to me creating this one.

 

Someone freaks out at my guesses and takes offense for the negative in them. My post gets one like.

 

That I will go to only two games this year. One early on that will be really cold. One when it is scorching hot. I will get drunk at both and lose my phone, like the last game I went to.

 

That someone will predict the Twins to make the playoffs.

[jimmer]

-I expect Plouffe to do exactly what you said

-If you changed Mauer's PA to 500 instead of 600, I'd say that would happen.

-The Suzuki one is very likely to happen, the defensive part already occurred last year and we saw glimpses of the offensive part happening in the 2nd half too.

-Hunter one is likely to happen.

-Dozier, well,  I see his OBP going up and the power going down.  We've already seen this as he progresses as a hitter, making adjustments to the pitchers' adjustments of him.

-Hughes one could happen, because I doubt his FIP stays how it was last year and combining that with the still horrible defense...oh my.

-Gibson won't lead the team in ERA.

-May won't get shifted to the bullpen full time this year, though I expect it will eventually happen down the road.

-Santana's BA will go down, and he'll likely hover around .310-.320 OBP.

-Not sure Arcia will beat out Hunter for worst defensive OF in the game, but it should be a fun race for the title.

 

BTW, ShouldaCouldaWoulda, way to be bold and put this out there for the masses to, um, evaluate.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

-Not sure Arcia will beat out Hunter for worst defensive OF in the game, but it should be a fun race for the title.

 

I only list Arcia as the champ, due to the Hunter injury prediction. Otherwise I agree that this could be a good battle. I can see Hicks taking the blame for having these two sandwiching him with bad defense.

[jimmer]

I can see Hicks taking the blame for having these two sandwiching him with bad defense.

Seems to have been the case a bit last year, in regards to horrific corner OFs.  Santana got less of that cause he was hitting and because he isn't an actual OF so expectations were low.

[Mike Frasier Law]

I think your predictions are overall pessimistic, but not crazy. If I had to completely fabricate numbers (and I feel a moral imperative to do so), I'd say your prediction looks like a 71 win season and I think there's a 75% chance the Twins outperform your predictions.

 

So, in the interest of keeping TD fair and balanced, I'm going to make predictions that are 75% likely to be an overestimate (in my totally scientific, not at all made-up, way). Twins win 88 games.

 

Mauer plays above-average defense, hits .330/.402/.450 and plays 150 games

 

Dozier is a top-5 2b (again). solid defense, 20 hr, 20 sb, 35 2b.

 

Plouffe has average defense, hits 11 hr, bats .255, gets traded July 15 and Sano takes over.

 

Sano makes some embarassing defensive gaffes, but hits the ball farther than Thome ever did. Hits 22 hr in the second half. OBP over .330

 

Santana plays adequate SS defensively. Hits .280/315/385 and steals 25 bases.

 

Hunter decides to retire during spring training.

 

Arcia hits 275/340/500 with 30 hr. Bad defense.

 

Hicks starts in CF and moves to LF June 15 when Buxton comes up. Hicks hits .245/375/400. Steals 12 bases and hits 12 home runs.

 

Buxton comes up June 15 and takes over CF. Starts off slowly, but plays stellar defense from the start. By mid July, he gets his groove. From July 15 to the end of the year, he hits 295/380/450, steals 20 bases and hits 10 hr. Does NOT get injured.

 

Suzuki is only bad (not awful) behind the plate, but Pinto's bat starts hot and forces the issue. Pinto takes over as primary with Suzuki as backup/mentor. Pinto hits 250/330/410 with 18 hr, still sucks at catching.

 

Vargas hits 275/330/450 with 25 hr and lots of ks.

 

The rotation is a different beast with good outfield defense behind it.

 

Hughes leads the way, pitching 210 innings, striking out nearly 8 batters per 9, walking less than 1.5 per 9. ERA at a solid 3.75

 

Santana also hits the 200 IP threshold. ERA at 3.88, 7.4 k/9 2.2 bb/9.

 

Nolasco pitches 185 innings. 4.25 ERA (first time in his career with a solid defense allows him to pitch closer to his peripherals). 6.5 k/9 and 2.1 bb/9.

 

Gibson pitches 175 innings to a 4.3 ERA. his ground ball rate is the 2nd best in the league at 57%, and his k/9 rate is a career best...5.8

 

Milone loses his plane ticket to spring training, never finds his way to Minneapolis.

 

May pitches the entire year in the rotation. 170 IP. ERA at 4.4, but strikes out 10 per 9 innings.

 

Meyer starts in AAA. Gets control of his BB and comes up in June. Pitches out of the bullpen and is scary good. Pitches 135 innings without any significant health concerns.

 

......

 

Ok, maybe that's a little more optimistic than I suggested. But that's what January's for, right?

[mikelink45]

I predict the Twins will play the season out, that new things will happen to new people and everyone will move on.  I see the Twins finishing last in their division and some of this is bound to come true which will lead the blogger to proclaim powers of Clairvoyance.

[Bark's Lounge]

Here is my roll of the dice.

 

Molitor gives the utmost motivating speech at the beginning of Spring Training and the players respond, with a 20-5 start to the season and this team is nicknamed "Molitor's Marauders" by the national media. There of course will be some ups and downs, but overall the Twins play strong baseball and win the Central Division with ease (99 victories). I'm not gonna get into the post season prediction machine, but they do win at least one post season series.

 

Notable Performances:

 

Mr. Mauer - very good defense at first and .995OPS, and only 12HR's, so that must mean his Avg. and BB's are pretty high, I also think he has over 50 doubles and 600PA's and another Batting Title.

 

Mr. Plouffe - He hits 37HR's, with a .960OPS, and plays improved defense compared to last years pleasant surprise, he wins the Gold Glove Award, he probably doesn't deserve it, but by having an MVP type of season he gets the nod on that empty reward - and yes, Plouffe is voted the American League MVP.

 

Mr. D. Santana - His Avg. is around .275-.280, but he hits 13HR's and scores over 100 Runs and Molitor's style of baseball brings his SB total to 45. His OBP is around .320, but he is a lightning rod for excitement! And by the way he plays SS most of the time with mixed results.

 

Mr. Dozier: His HR numbers fall to 18, but he has a .288BA, with 105BB and leads the league with 117 Runs Scored.

 

Mr. Hughes: 227IP, 215K's, 1.03WHIP

 

Mr. E. Santana: 219IP, 190K's. 1.114WHIP

 

Obviously, a handful of other players will need to have good seasons for this scenario to play out.

 

This is my nightmare walking, psychopath talkin' prediction.

 

Let it ride!

[Danchat]

 

Here is my roll of the dice.

You are using loaded dice, clearly.

And Plouffe hitting 37HRs? Wow, okay. The glass looks half empty to me, but apparently looks entirely full to you.

 

I thought the realm of 80 plus wins was very unlikely, but 99... well, if I have to make a guess, I'll say the Twins win 75 games.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Here is my roll of the dice.

 

Molitor gives the utmost motivating speech at the beginning of Spring Training and the players respond, with a 20-5 start to the season and this team is nicknamed "Molitor's Marauders" by the national media. There of course will be some ups and downs, but overall the Twins play strong baseball and win the Central Division with ease (99 victories). I'm not gonna get into the post season prediction machine, but they do win at least one post season series.

 

Notable Performances:

 

Mr. Mauer - very good defense at first and .995OPS, and only 12HR's, so that must mean his Avg. and BB's are pretty high, I also think he has over 50 doubles and 600PA's and another Batting Title.

 

Mr. Plouffe - He hits 37HR's, with a .960OPS, and plays improved defense compared to last years pleasant surprise, he wins the Gold Glove Award, he probably doesn't deserve it, but by having an MVP type of season he gets the nod on that empty reward - and yes, Plouffe is voted the American League MVP.

 

Mr. D. Santana - His Avg. is around .275-.280, but he hits 13HR's and scores over 100 Runs and Molitor's style of baseball brings his SB total to 45. His OBP is around .320, but he is a lightning rod for excitement! And by the way he plays SS most of the time with mixed results.

 

Mr. Dozier: His HR numbers fall to 18, but he has a .288BA, with 105BB and leads the league with 117 Runs Scored.

 

Mr. Hughes: 227IP, 215K's, 1.03WHIP

 

Mr. E. Santana: 219IP, 190K's. 1.114WHIP

 

Obviously, a handful of other players will need to have good seasons for this scenario to play out.

 

This is my nightmare walking, psychopath talkin' prediction.

 

Let it ride!

 

You'll be buying playoff tickets if that comes true, and I'll personally buy you a drink!

[Bark's Lounge]

You'll be buying playoff tickets if that comes true, and I'll personally buy you a drink!

Don't worry about the drink, they are on me also because if my predictions come to fruition, I will probably have won the lottery also.

 

For Mauer to OPS .995, with 12HR's, he'd probably have to bat close to .400, with his usual amount of BB's.

 

Today optimism is the wind blowing against my back, propelling me to a state of Big Dreamin' and grandiose possibilities!

[gil4]

You are using loaded dice, clearly.

And Plouffe hitting 37HRs? Wow, okay. The glass looks half empty to me, but apparently looks entirely full to you.

 

 

Sounds reasonable to me (and my member title.)

[Twodogs]

Here is my roll of the dice.

 

Molitor gives the utmost motivating speech at the beginning of Spring Training and the players respond, with a 20-5 start to the season and this team is nicknamed "Molitor's Marauders" by the national media. There of course will be some ups and downs, but overall the Twins play strong baseball and win the Central Division with ease (99 victories). I'm not gonna get into the post season prediction machine, but they do win at least one post season series.

 

Notable Performances:

 

Mr. Mauer - very good defense at first and .995OPS, and only 12HR's, so that must mean his Avg. and BB's are pretty high, I also think he has over 50 doubles and 600PA's and another Batting Title.

 

Mr. Plouffe - He hits 37HR's, with a .960OPS, and plays improved defense compared to last years pleasant surprise, he wins the Gold Glove Award, he probably doesn't deserve it, but by having an MVP type of season he gets the nod on that empty reward - and yes, Plouffe is voted the American League MVP.

 

Mr. D. Santana - His Avg. is around .275-.280, but he hits 13HR's and scores over 100 Runs and Molitor's style of baseball brings his SB total to 45. His OBP is around .320, but he is a lightning rod for excitement! And by the way he plays SS most of the time with mixed results.

 

Mr. Dozier: His HR numbers fall to 18, but he has a .288BA, with 105BB and leads the league with 117 Runs Scored.

 

Mr. Hughes: 227IP, 215K's, 1.03WHIP

 

Mr. E. Santana: 219IP, 190K's. 1.114WHIP

 

Obviously, a handful of other players will need to have good seasons for this scenario to play out.

 

This is my nightmare walking, psychopath talkin' prediction.

 

Let it ride!

Well better to aim for the stars and land in the middle of space somewhere when you don't hit them than to aim for a pile of crap on the ground and actually hit it?

[Twodogs]

my hope would be

 

Santana to hit .275 with 25 2B's and 5 - 8 Hrs with 20 SB's in 140 games

Dozier .260 with 25 2B's 15 Hrs 150 games

Mauer .310 with 30 2B's 5 Hrs in 140 games

Hunter .270 with 20 2B's 15 Hrs and 75 RBI's in 135 games

Arcia .255 with 30 2B's 25Hrs and 80 RBI in 145 games

Plouffe .270 with 25 2B's 15Hrs 80 RBI in 150 games

Vargas .250 with 20 2B's and 25 Hrs and 70 RBI in 130 games

Suzuki .270 with 20 2B's and 5 Hrs in 135 games

Hicks . 245 with 15 2B's 5 Hrs .320 OBP in 110 games

Schaffer . 250 in 80 games

Escobar .260 with 15 2B's in 90 games

Pinto .240 with 8 Hrs in 50 games

 

Hughes  15 - 10  3.50 era 200 IP 190 K's 30 BB  1.15 whip

Santana 12 - 9 3.65 era 190 IP 165 K's  1.25 whip

Nolasco 12 - 11  4.40 era 185 IP 140 K's  45 BB  1.30 whip

Gibson  10 - 11  4.50 era 180 IP 120 K's  1.35 whip

Milone 8 - 6 4.10 era 100 IP 55 K's  1.30 whip

May  5 - 4  4.20 era 80 IP  70 K's  1.35 whip

Meyers 2 - 4 4.50 era 40 IP 50 K's

 

Fein 3 - 5 2.80 era  5 saves

Perkins 3 - 4  3.00 era 30 saves

 

Rest of staff is 12 - 16  with a 3.90 era

 

that would put the Twins at 82 - 80 for the season and probably in about 3rd place in the Central.

 

I'd love to have a 99 win season but I don't think that's possible yet

 

I don't really see anyone having great seasons in my predictions except maybe Mauer and Arcia and Hughes but I also didn't forcast any really crappy ones either.  I know there will be a couple of guys that will exceed expectations and there will be a couple that fall flat.  So we will wait and see.

[Shane Wahl]

Everyone really loves Plouffe at Twins Daily! I see a slight regression from last season for him overall, though he might homer a bit more.

[big dog]

Re the initial set of predictions: you forgot to predict the day the comet destroys Target Field.

[Platoon]

A lot of these predictions seem to be time stamped last night, possibly after Happy Hour was over? . Mine will be written in the early dawn, with a clear head and a total lack of knowledge. My predictions will be by position and only good until the AS game. At that time I would expect some significant changes to the lineups. Rating based on position and compared to last year regardless of who played there. Plus (+). Minus (-) or status quo (0)

 

1B. +

2B. +

3B. -

SS. +

LF. +

CF. 0

RF. -

C. -

SP. -

RP. -

 

My scoring system is based on a secret algorithm, tireless research, and 15 minutes to kill before breakfast. That said, a combination of pitchers hitting bats, and the proposed statuesque outfield does bode well for the pessimistic fan!

[jimmer]

Plouffe keeps growing as a hitter and his BABIP suggests there's nothing inherently lucky about it.  More comfortable in the field, more comfortable at the plate.  I expect him to keep getting better, but even if he stays right where he is, he's valuable.

[Platoon]

Re the initial set of predictions: you forgot to predict the day the comet destroys Target Field.

The scenario: A Twins pitcher has just thrown a pitch, it is batted into the air, he turns and looks, then crouches down, a look of horror on his face, as he covers his eyes! What did he just see?

 

A: A comet heading towards the statue of Kent Hrbek?

B: Wally the Beer Man reinstated, carrying a new electronic drivers license reader?

C: A commonly struck baseball heading toward the Twins OF?

D: All,of the above?

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Re the initial set of predictions: you forgot to predict the day the comet destroys Target Field.

 

9-24-2013. 11:16 am.

[Platoon]

9-24-2013. 11:16 am.

Thank goodness, this will still leave time to get the field ready for a 7:10 start!