Article: Who Should Be In Line For Fifth Starter Spot?

[jorgenswest]

Or, they can just buy it--like they actually did!

I don't agree that they can be successful buying a starting rotation. Last year they bought three starters. They had another in his second year of purchase. One was great and three were awful. It would be hard to find three starters who performed as poorly. Together the four accounted for about a third of the budget and 11 games under .500. Can they actually buy it? That's what they bought last year. The Twins improved to 70 wins by actually buying 80% of a rotation.

 

What part of the budget will the Twins spend on Hughes, Santana, Nolasco and Pelfrey this year? I think they will have a total of 16 years committed to them. Can we get 10-12 good seasons out of 16? Is that enough for the cost? Is it enough to move towards 90 wins? So far they are 1-2 in seasons purchased.

 

I don't believe they can win by buying a rotation. The best year is often the first year as pitchers lose velocity and decline as they enter or continue in their thirties. I believe the only way out of this cycle of mediocrity is to develop a core of cost controlled young pitching and then give them the starts in the major leagues that are necessary for their development.

[Boom Boom]

The way I see it, the likelihood of each option is 1. Pelfrey, 2. Milone, 3. May. I wouldn't expect to see Meyer until his service clock is pushed back.

 

I say Pelfrey is the front-runner mostly because Milone is likely to be the more valuable reliever, and I expect May to begin the season in AAA. Not that I like it- the Pelfrey contract reminds me of the 2nd Rondell White contract, in that the justifications for both were good Septembers following otherwise terrible seasons.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins can push back Alex Meyer's service time if they want. It will likely cost one start from the 5th starter. The first time they will need a 5th starter will be April 12. The next time would be April 19. By that date, he would not have enough days left to earn a year of service (169 needs 172). Alex Meyer can earn the job in spring and get sent down missing only one start as the 5th starter.

 

In any case, service time should not be an argument for a 25 year old. It is likely that a 25 year old season would be better than the 31 year old season you would be gaining by delaying.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Actually if Meyer spends less than 20 days in AAA, it would count as a full season of MLB service time, regardless of whether he gets 172 days. But yeah, it shouldn't really matter at this point.

[jorgenswest]

Actually if Meyer spends less than 20 days in AAA, it would count as a full season of MLB service time, regardless of whether he gets 172 days. But yeah, it shouldn't really matter at this point.

Thanks for the fix. This was my source http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/contract-details/service-time-super-two/

[nicksaviking]

Just a word of caution though. If we had insisted on a "useable assessment" of 1.5-2 years on Plouffe to cite just one example (particularly if it was the FANS' assessment), he'd have been DFA'd two years ago, just like a number of commenters on TD suggested. 

 

Guys like Parmelee aren't kept around because the Twins don't have a useable assessment. It's not that simple. Thankfully we're entering a stage where they can trot out better alternatives now.

 

No, Plouffe was yo-yoed around too.  He got three games here, sat for a week, would get demoted, then called up for an injury replacement, play every other day, then start for a month when he got hot and benched again as soon as he got cold.  He was used very similarly to Parmelee.  This team, or perhaps more so Gardenhire, was not patient enough to develop young guys. 

 

I don't want May and Meyer up and down all year.  I don't care if they struggle, they're wet behind the ears so the odds are they will.  When they finally get their shot, let them ride out their problems at the majors all season long. 

[Mike Sixel]

Pelfrey. Sigh.

 

He's gone after this year, why keep investing time, resources, playing time, anything in this guy? Move on to the future. Very, very potentially frustrating.

[tobi0040]

Pelfrey. Sigh.

 

He's gone after this year, why keep investing time, resources, playing time, anything in this guy? Move on to the future. Very, very potentially frustrating.

 

I think we need to give Pelf a 3 year extension this time.

[Boom Boom]

Pelfrey. Sigh.

 

He's gone after this year, why keep investing time, resources, playing time, anything in this guy? Move on to the future. Very, very potentially frustrating.

I think the Twins want Pelfrey to pitch well more than they want Milone or May to pitch well. That's why they'll give him every opportunity, maybe to drum up a bit of trade interest or to justify his contract, or both.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the Twins want Pelfrey to pitch well more than they want Milone or May to pitch well. That's why they'll give him every opportunity, maybe to drum up a bit of trade interest or to justify his contract, or both.

I don't get the logic in this. I think you could say "the Twins want all their pitchers to pitch well" but I don't see a scenario where Ryan says "boy, seeing May become a solid starter would be nice but I hope he tanks so Mike Pelfrey looks good and that contract is justified".

 

Ryan looks good if the Twins win ballgames. Nobody cares about the Pelfrey deal if the Twins win 85 games in 2015 and if Trevor May helps the Twins win more ballgames than Mike Pelfrey, I think he'll be the one taking the ball every fifth day (or Milone or whoever the Twins have the most faith in heading out of Ft Myers).

[Mike Sixel]

I think the Twins want Pelfrey to pitch well more than they want Milone or May to pitch well. That's why they'll give him every opportunity, maybe to drum up a bit of trade interest or to justify his contract, or both.

 

Even if Pelfrey is good for 15 starts, ya, right, what could you trade him for? 

 

MOVE ON ALREADY. 

[Boom Boom]

I don't get the logic in this. I think you could say "the Twins want all their pitchers to pitch well" but I don't see a scenario where Ryan says "boy, seeing May become a solid starter would be nice but I hope he tanks so Mike Pelfrey looks good and that contract is justified".

 

Ryan looks good if the Twins win ballgames. Nobody cares about the Pelfrey deal if the Twins win 85 games in 2015 and if Trevor May helps the Twins win more ballgames than Mike Pelfrey, I think he'll be the one taking the ball every fifth day (or Milone or whoever the Twins have the most faith in heading out of Ft Myers).

I don't disagree with what you're saying... I just think that if all three of May, Milone, and Pelfrey are bad in ST, they'll give the ball to Pelfrey first because they have less invested in Milone and they have plenty of time to get May on track.

 

I still think Meyer is AAA bound for a couple months regardless.

[laloesch]

Barring a horrible spring training, Trevor May no question.  It irritates me that Ryan has repeatedly said that their hoping Pelfrey makes the club as the fifth starter.

[kellyvance]

Your best 5 starters should start. 

 

That means Meyer, Gibby, May, Santana and Hughes. 

Ricky in the pen to start. Pelfrey and Milone, only one of those two guys make it North.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

Your best 5 starters should start. 

 

That means Meyer, Gibby, May, Santana and Hughes. 

Ricky in the pen to start. Pelfrey and Milone, only one of those two guys make it North.

 

So how are we judging the "best" five on in this scenario?

Edited February 17, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Brock Beauchamp]

Your best 5 starters should start. 

 

That means Meyer, Gibby, May, Santana and Hughes. 

Ricky in the pen to start. Pelfrey and Milone, only one of those two guys make it North.

It's an assumption to say those are the five best starters. Nolasco has a long track record of middling success while Meyer and May are big question marks.

[Willihammer]

Not too late to DFA Milone. If they do it before ST they only owe for 30 days pay.