Rockies seek pitching for Outfielder

[Secondary User]

Blackmon had a career .843 OPS in the minors and never was below .804 in his 6 minor league seasons.  Robinson had a career .734 OPS and only cracked .800 twice in his 9 years.  While Blackmon's production while he's been at Coor's is obviously inflated, he's still put up a 100+ OPS + the last two seasons and played par defense in a park that is difficult for outfielders (largest fair territory acreage in the league I believe).  He has some upside even beyond what he's done up to this point in the majors.

 

And as for the home or away splits, I would suggest looking at batted ball data and also pitch type data before you completely dismiss him.  I could see a young guy who's still not great against major league breaking pitches doing very well at Coors (where breaking pitches aren't as effective) and struggling on the road (read this article if you want some understanding as to why, particularly taking note of the two tables in the pitch outcomes section about 3/4 the way down)

[TheLeviathan]

We have multiple seasons of data and a HUGE spread in his splits, I feel confident that data is valid to dismiss him.

[Linus]

Shafer can cover ground and catch the ball. That is priority número uno for theTwins in CF. I dont care if he will not hit .275, someone HAS to fill in the gaps between Hunter and Arcia. And these gaps may be worse than thought because of the inexplicable decision to move Arcia to left. If that came from the FO, and it seems it did, the only rationale is to make the acquision seem more palatable!

Well 275 is not the issue. The issue is he is more likely to hit closer to 175 and he is an ok fielder. Not what I'm looking for

[Secondary User]

We have multiple seasons of data and a HUGE spread in his splits, I feel confident that data is valid to dismiss him.

 

You have basically one full season that is driving the spread.  in 2013, over a half season he hit .289 with a .772 OPS on the road for a sOPS+ of 131.  And as I pointed out, he certainly performed well in his minor league career.  He wasn't playing at Coors Field in those games.

 

Is he an all-star caliber player worth giving up even someone like Gibson for?  No.  But doesn't he have the tools and potential to be a solid contributor?  Absolutely.  But we also have a similar player like that in the form of Hicks and guys with more potential coming as well.

[TheLeviathan]

You have basically one full season that is driving the spread.  in 2013, over a half season he hit .289 with a .772 OPS on the road for a sOPS+ of 131.  And as I pointed out, he certainly performed well in his minor league career.  He wasn't playing at Coors Field in those games.

 

Is he an all-star caliber player worth giving up even someone like Gibson for?  No.  But doesn't he have the tools and potential to be a solid contributor?  Absolutely.  But we also have a similar player like that in the form of Hicks and guys with more potential coming as well.

 

An .800 OPS in the minors hardly justifies his .800 OPS in the majors.  Everything about those splits screams Coors effect.  Is he an awful player?  No, but no one worth trading for when he is so highly suspect away from his hitter's paradise.

[Secondary User]

An .800 OPS in the minors hardly justifies his .800 OPS in the majors.  Everything about those splits screams Coors effect.  Is he an awful player?  No, but no one worth trading for when he is so highly suspect away from his hitter's paradise.

 

Just depends on what you have to give up for him.  Our outfield defense is a huge concern for me, and if the asking price were reasonable, and in the case of maybe Nolasco being involved in a trade, potentially freeing up cap room for another move, it could be worth looking at.

[TheLeviathan]

Just depends on what you have to give up for him.  Our outfield defense is a huge concern for me, and if the asking price were reasonable, and in the case of maybe Nolasco being involved in a trade, potentially freeing up cap room for another move, it could be worth looking at.

 

By what fangraphs is showing for both eye test and defensive metrics he doesn't appear to be the kind of fielder to warrant such attention either.

[Major League Ready]

It would make more sense to just bring Rosario north. Why give up any assets for a mediocre player.  I would rather give Rosario the developmental opportunity.  He is probably already far enough along already to out produces this guy.

[nicksaviking]

An .800 OPS in the minors hardly justifies his .800 OPS in the majors.

Especially when he is putting up those blasé numbers in the equally offensive inflating PCL.

[Secondary User]

By what fangraphs is showing for both eye test and defensive metrics he doesn't appear to be the kind of fielder to warrant such attention either.

 

Let's put it this way, I'd have much rather looked at a guy like Blackmon than Hunter.....

 

Now, that obviously isn't an option at this point, but I don't think another having another option (particularly if the reports that the organization doesn't expect Buxton to be up this season are true) is a horrible thing.  Particularly if the organization wanted to start Hicks in AAA (which I think would be wise).

[Secondary User]

Especially when he is putting up those blasé numbers in the equally offensive inflating PCL.

 

An .800 OPS in the minors hardly justifies his .800 OPS in the majors.

 

But an .877 OPS at AAA, and an .843 (in a much more modest Texas League) at AA are nothing to scoff at.  Not sure when high .800s OPS became blasé.........

 

The .803 was a low water mark for his entire minor league career.

[ashbury]

But an .877 OPS at AAA, and an .843 (in a much more modest Texas League) at AA are nothing to scoff at.  Not sure when high .800s OPS became blasé.........

 

The .803 was a low water mark for his entire minor league career.

Blackmon played in the Northwest League, California League, Texas League, and Pacific Coast League.  None of these leagues is below average in run scoring. 

 

And Modesto was his only home park that had even a slightly below average park factor relative to its league.  Hm, that coincides with his low-water mark.

 

Had he played in the Twins system, his resume might have looked considerably different playing in the  Midwest League, Florida State League, Eastern League, and International League, respectively.

 

He also was never especially young for his league.  While I don't think it means he can't hit major league pitching at all, he might represent a "perfect storm" for overrating a batter.

 

Individual park factors: http://minorleaguecentral.com/parkfactors

 

League scoring:

 

http://www.milb.com/images/2013/02/25/UTwSkTYn.jpg

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Can we just sign Colby Rasmus to a short term deal and be done with this?  Even if we have to overpay a little it solves the biggest remaining problem.  With a competent CF this team would hang in contention for the second wild card spot most of next year.  Plus, it allows Hicks to start in AAA to try and salvage his career and puts Schafer in the 4th outfielder spot.

 

All would be right in Twins world.....

you obviously think Colby a Rasmus would sign a short term deal. How short is short? How much of an overpay? I agree Rasmus could be a good solution for the Twins, I think to land would mean planning for him in a corner OF position when/if Buxton overtakes him at CF.

 

Not certain all would be right in Twins world, but it would be a leap in the right direction.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just depends on what you have to give up for him. Our outfield defense is a huge concern for me, and if the asking price were reasonable, and in the case of maybe Nolasco being involved in a trade, potentially freeing up cap room for another move, it could be worth looking at.

cap room?

 

Outfield defense is a huge concern for me as well, but like Linus I would prefer to go FA route to acquire the talent. This is still a very thin team in regards to depth of talent a that is several years from really contending. Hold on to talent until the team is in a better place.

[TheLeviathan]

But an .877 OPS at AAA, and an .843 (in a much more modest Texas League) at AA are nothing to scoff at.  Not sure when high .800s OPS became blasé.........

 

The .803 was a low water mark for his entire minor league career.

 

Sure, they aren't bad stats to have, but they aren't great evidence for dismissing some pretty dramatic splits.  As others have pointed out, those stats appear to be inflated as well.

 

If you want him instead of Hunter, I guess I can't hate that idea, but Blackmon isn't good enough to play CF at an elite level and isn't likely to hit well enough to be a good corner guy.  

 

He's just not the right fit.

[Secondary User]

Yes....we're all aware of the 2008-2012 run environments.  But over his time at the PCL, he had a .877 OPS while the league OPS was .779.  Even when you account for park factors, he was performing very well.

 

Again....I'm not saying he's an all-star, and that he's not bound to regress outside the confines of Coors Field.  But to think that he wouldn't be an upgrade over what we have now is just overvaluing our own commodities

[Secondary User]

you obviously think Colby a Rasmus would sign a short term deal. How short is short? How much of an overpay? I agree Rasmus could be a good solution for the Twins, I think to land would mean planning for him in a corner OF position when/if Buxton overtakes him at CF.

 

Not certain all would be right in Twins world, but it would be a leap in the right direction.

 

Rasmus is looking for a one year deal by all reports (unless I missed something). 

[TheLeviathan]

For me it's not overvaluing what we have because I despise what we look to be marching out in CF at this point.  For me it's about the fact that Charlie Blackmon isn't the right kind of player to fix that issue.

 

As I've said with Bourjos - I'd be ok with a .650 OPS if the dude covers CF like a blanket.  Blackmon can't do that.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Rasmus is looking for a one year deal by all reports (unless I missed something).

 

no kiddin? Well then by all means, sign him. Is there such a thing as a bad one year contract? I just assumed the hold out into the new year was over years, it usually is.

[Secondary User]

For me it's not overvaluing what we have because I despise what we look to be marching out in CF at this point.  For me it's about the fact that Charlie Blackmon isn't the right kind of player to fix that issue.

 

As I've said with Bourjos - I'd be ok with a .650 OPS if the dude covers CF like a blanket.  Blackmon can't do that.

 

I like him for the same reason (though to a lesser extent) I liked Michael Saunders as a trade target.  He can play respectable CF in the short term, and profiles nicely at a corner spot (as a plan B should Rosario/Arcia either take time to get going or just not pan out) once you have Buxton up.  Neither of these guys are worth any significant mammoth trade to build your outfield around, but they're viable pieces that can be moved around and give you alternatives should your prospects be delayed or struggle.

[jorgenswest]

I would keep the pitching and spend on Rasmus. The Twins should not be interested in a 1 year deal though. They need to build for the future and he can be a Hughes like gamble. He has mixed two very good seasons among some bad ones. Last year he dealt with a hamstring. He is a buy low right now.

 

Ideally they would have pursued Rasmus instead of Hunter but there is still a place for him. His left handed bat would ge a fit. Put him in CF this year with Hicks as the 4th OF. Start Hicks against every lefty for either Arcia or Rasmus. When Buxton is ready, move Rasmus to a corner in the same platoon.

 

Offer him the same deal they offered Hughes.

 

More on Rasmus

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-attempted-defense-of-colby-rasmus-defense/

[BK432]

If they would be willing to deal Corey Dickerson instead, well, then I'd listen. I want no part of Charlie Blackmon. Dickerson was .735 OPS on the road with a 102 wRC. Probably why they'd rather hang on to him.

[TheLeviathan]

Speaking of pitching for outfield trades....I feel like this should have been the sort of deal we were after for LF this year instead of Torii.

[jorgenswest]

Speaking of pitching for outfield trades....I feel like this should have been the sort of deal we were after for LF this year instead of Torii.

 A comparable trade may have been Plouffe and a pitcher. Valbuena has shown the better bat last year. He bats left handed. Valbuena's also has the ability to play 2B which is a huge plus. They have similar contract status. It is extremely unlikely that the Astros would want Plouffe over Valbuena.

 

The only way to win the trade is to offer a better pitcher. Straily at 26 and cost controlled has a better minor league track record than Trevor May and more major league experience. 

 

it needs to be something better than Trevor Plouffe and Trevor May to win the deal. The oft mentioned surplus of mediocre pitching (Pelfrey, Milone, Nolasco) aren't going to make the deal better.

 

Would you offer more than Plouffe and May? I am not sure I would. I am pretty certain the Astros would take Valbuena and Straily over them in any case.

[Secondary User]

I would keep the pitching and spend on Rasmus. The Twins should not be interested in a 1 year deal though. They need to build for the future and he can be a Hughes like gamble. He has mixed two very good seasons among some bad ones. Last year he dealt with a hamstring. He is a buy low right now.

 

Ideally they would have pursued Rasmus instead of Hunter but there is still a place for him. His left handed bat would ge a fit. Put him in CF this year with Hicks as the 4th OF. Start Hicks against every lefty for either Arcia or Rasmus. When Buxton is ready, move Rasmus to a corner in the same platoon.

 

Offer him the same deal they offered Hughes.

 

More on Rasmus

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-attempted-defense-of-colby-rasmus-defense/

 

Rasmus isn't interested in a multi year deal.  Again, every report I've seen has him looking for a one year prove it deal to try and capitalize on another contract.

[James]

 A comparable trade may have been Plouffe and a pitcher. Valbuena has shown the better bat last year. He bats left handed. Valbuena's also has the ability to play 2B which is a huge plus. They have similar contract status. It is extremely unlikely that the Astros would want Plouffe over Valbuena.

 

The only way to win the trade is to offer a better pitcher. Straily at 26 and cost controlled has a better minor league track record than Trevor May and more major league experience. 

 

it needs to be something better than Trevor Plouffe and Trevor May to win the deal. The oft mentioned surplus of mediocre pitching (Pelfrey, Milone, Nolasco) aren't going to make the deal better.

 

Would you offer more than Plouffe and May? I am not sure I would. I am pretty certain the Astros would take Valbuena and Straily over them in any case.

I have a feeling that the Astros were not really interested in Valbuena as a 2B.  The've already got one that is pretty darn good.  But, I think you're right that it would have taken someone like Plouffe to get Fowler from the Astros.  It's a pretty good comparison overall though.