Article: White Sox Winning Winter Meetings Through Day 1

[jay]

Okay, even assuming that's accurate...

I'd still probably say I'd rather take concentrated boom and full out bust to rebuild than spread out boom and hoping patchwork works out right to be in contention.

[TheLeviathan]

The White Sox aren't great every year because very few baseball teams are, not because their approach is obviously lacking some grand vision of sustained success.

 

 

You think 25 years of yo-yoing and "nearly good enough" is just baseball randomness?  The more you claim to be neutral the less you sound it.

 

The Sox problem is that they are constantly patching on the fly and by the very nature of how things come available and how patches work - they often flop or have a short shelf life.  Here are just a few examples:

 

1) In order to not have a sustained rebuild they rushed Gordon Beckham to the majors.

2) They patch their lineup with the likes of Kotsay and Pierre because that's the best they can do

3) No farm depth means they trot out a group of hitters in 2011 that are impressively awful with no alternatives

4)  They give Keppinger 500 ABs at a Puntonian level of production

 

I could go on.  The truth is that the Sox have a problem getting over the hump because they constantly exhaust themselves trying to stay semi-relevant.  Their patching isn't sustainable because you often have to invest more resources to do what they do.  The Twins strategy requires the investment of time and a combination of luck and good scouting.

 

The Twins could learn a few things from the way the Sox use their resources and the Sox could learn a few things about avoiding the constant depletion of theirs.  That's how you find sustainable success, but to claim this notion that the Sox should be commended for staying relevant is like commending the Washington Generals for always being the one mentioned with the Globetrotters.

[USAFChief]

 

1) In order to have a sustained rebuild they rushed Aaron Hicks to the majors.

2) They patch their lineup with the likes of Rondell White and that Japanese fellow I can't bear to name because that's the best they can do

3) No farm depth means they trot out a group of pitchers in 2011, 12, 13, and 14 that are impressively awful with no alternatives

4)  They give Punto 500 ABs at a Puntonian level of production

 

.

Sorry, Levi...I couldn't resist.

[The Wise One]

You think 25 years of yo-yoing and "nearly good enough" is just baseball randomness?  The more you claim to be neutral the less you sound it.

 

The Sox problem is that they are constantly patching on the fly and by the very nature of how things come available and how patches work - they often flop or have a short shelf life.  Here are just a few examples:

 

1) In order to not have a sustained rebuild they rushed Gordon Beckham to the majors.

2) They patch their lineup with the likes of Kotsay and Pierre because that's the best they can do

3) No farm depth means they trot out a group of hitters in 2011 that are impressively awful with no alternatives

4)  They give Keppinger 500 ABs at a Puntonian level of production

 

I could go on.  The truth is that the Sox have a problem getting over the hump because they constantly exhaust themselves trying to stay semi-relevant.  Their patching isn't sustainable because you often have to invest more resources to do what they do.  The Twins strategy requires the investment of time and a combination of luck and good scouting.

 

The Twins could learn a few things from the way the Sox use their resources and the Sox could learn a few things about avoiding the constant depletion of theirs.  That's how you find sustainable success, but to claim this notion that the Sox should be commended for staying relevant is like commending the Washington Generals for always being the one mentioned with the Globetrotters.

You lost me once you claimed Beckham was rushed to the majors. He had success in the minors and had multiple years to show what he was capable of at the major league level. . Beckham had a good first year in the majors. He regressed and years later did not get back to previous levels. There is no rushing because spending only a short time in the minors.

[The Wise One]

Sorry, Levi...I couldn't resist.

Taking almost 5 years to get through most of the levels of the minor leagues is rushing a prospect?

[TheLeviathan]

You lost me once you claimed Beckham was rushed to the majors. He had success in the minors and had multiple years to show what he was capable of at the major league level. . Beckham had a good first year in the majors. He regressed and years later did not get back to previous levels. There is no rushing because spending only a short time in the minors.

He had 300 at bats in the minors total, I would call that rushing.  Especially since another 80 of those came AFTER his debut.

Edited December 11, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[TheLeviathan]

Sorry, Levi...I couldn't resist.

No I totally agree with the problems the Twins' method has had as well. I have repeatedly stated they have roughly equal outcomes. What bugs me is pedestalizing a White Sox method that has the same results.

[tobi0040]

The Dodgers just gave McCarthy 4-48.  Yikes. 

 

Could not wait to piss away the Kemp money.

[Mike Sixel]

It is expensive to sign FAs.........if you are always saying "it is too expensive", you better have a farm system that produces, all the time, or you end up with Jason Tyner as your DH......and 4 or more years of 90+ loss seasons.

[tobi0040]

It is expensive to sign FAs.........if you are always saying "it is too expensive", you better have a farm system that produces, all the time, or you end up with Jason Tyner as your DH......and 4 or more years of 90+ loss seasons.

 

But giving a guy that has not averaged 100 IP a year over 10 years, a four year deal is wreckless.   His ERA+ the last two years have been 94 and 85.

[Mike Sixel]

But giving a guy that has not averaged 100 IP a year over 10 years, a four year deal is wreckless.   His ERA+ the last two years have been 94 and 85.

 

Like I said, every signing so far has been met here with, "that's too much money" or "that's too many years" or "I wouldn't sign that guy he's not good"......well, apparently, a hug number of MLB teams disagree.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Okay, even assuming that's accurate...

I'd still probably say I'd rather take concentrated boom and full out bust to rebuild than spread out boom and hoping patchwork works out right to be in contention.

Actually, I kinda like "full out bust" too (no raunchy jokes please ) because the tickets are cheap and plentiful.

 

But from a fan standpoint, I find it an odd preference.  The majority of White Sox seasons weren't just "hope for contention" -- they actually were in contention to varying degrees, from preseason probably into August if not later.

 

Just to put them into some more numbers.

 

Last 25 season finishes

 

Twins - 2 ALCS appearances, 1 WS win

White Sox - 2 ALCS appearances, 1 WS win

 

Twins 1st - 7

White Sox 1st - 5

 

Twins 2nd - 3

White Sox 2nd - 11

 

Twins 3rd - 2

White Sox 3rd - 6

 

Twins 4th or 5th (last) - 13, or 52%

White Sox 4th or 5th (last) - 3, or 12%

 

Plenty of room to improve either approach, of course, but preferring the Twins result is taking on an awful lot of terrible baseball for just two more first place finishes (and first round exits).  (FWIW, the White Sox also have the higher single-season "peak" at 99 wins, plus another season (1994) equalling the Twins best winning percentage of the period.)

 

Now, the last 2 seasons have closed the gap a little bit, and future seasons will too, but I am trying to stay out of forecasting and avoid too much recency bias in this exercise.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another thing is to consider how the "bust" periods happen.  I think the Twins "bust" periods have initially been the result of some big mistakes, rather than a deliberate part of some master plan to return to "boom" periods.

 

So all I am really doing is giving the White Sox a little extra credit for avoiding those kind of mistakes (or at least minimizing their long-term effects, if they indeed recover from their 2013-2014 performances).  

 

Obviously the two teams still rank pretty close together by most measures, below the perennial contenders and ahead of the perennial losers.

[tobi0040]

Cespedes for Porcello.

 

Also it sounds like the Tigers are getting a pitcher from cincy, but no word on which one.

[amjgt]

I can't wait for 11:05 when the Twins finally make their first transaction of these winter meetings.

Edited December 11, 2014 by amjgt

[amjgt]

Just for fun, I wonder what the Twins 25 man roster would look like if they said "screw it" and made the entirety of their minor league talent available for trade in an effort to win in the next 5 years.

 

Buxton. Sano. Berrios. Meyer. Stewart..... Everyone is available.

 

Guys already at in the majors could be available too (Vargas, Arcia, Dozier, Santana, etc)

Edited December 11, 2014 by amjgt

[tobi0040]

Just for fun, I wonder what the Twins 25 man roster would look like if they said "screw it" and made the entirely of their minor league talent available for trade in an effort to win in the next 5 years.

 

Buxton. Sano. Berrios. Meyer. Stewart..... Everyone is available.

 

Guys already at in the majors could be available too (Vargas, Arcia, Dozier, Santana, etc)

 

The issue is payroll would likely jump to $140M and we would have no farm system.  We would be Tigers-lite.

[jay]

Another thing is to consider how the "bust" periods happen.  I think the Twins "bust" periods have initially been the result of some big mistakes, rather than a deliberate part of some master plan to return to "boom" periods.

 

Definitely. 

 

My issue with directly comparing the results is that it makes the assumption that their capacity is apples-to-apples, when it's not.  The White Sox payroll has outpaced the Twins every single year since 1998 with the single exception of 2003 -- often by a significant margin. 

 

We wouldn't try to compare the merits of the Twins approach to Yankees approach based on their results due to their significant financial disparities.  It's less extreme with the White Sox, but that same concept is very relevant.  For the additional resources the White Sox have expended, you'd expect to see a greater and noticeable separation in their results.

[amjgt]

The issue is payroll would likely jump to $140M and we would have no farm system.  We would be Tigers-lite.

 

a) I'm not advocating it, just wondering out loud.

 

b ) Would being Tigers-like be so bad? (I realize you said "lite", but I'm not sure we would be inferior to the Tigers)

Edited December 11, 2014 by amjgt

[tobi0040]

a) I'm not advocating it, just wondering out loud.

 

b ) Would being Tigers-like be so bad? (I realize you said "lite", but I'm not sure we would be inferior to the Tigers)

 

The lite was the reference to the $140M vs. their $180M or whatever it is.  I knew it was more of a thought...

[tobi0040]

Alfredo Simon to DET

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just for fun, I wonder what the Twins 25 man roster would look like if they said "screw it" and made the entirety of their minor league talent available for trade in an effort to win in the next 5 years.

 

Buxton. Sano. Berrios. Meyer. Stewart..... Everyone is available.

 

Guys already at in the majors could be available too (Vargas, Arcia, Dozier, Santana, etc)

You might be seeing something like this going on in Miami right now.  Just read this:

 

"The Marlins have now traded 4 of their top 7 prospects (and their #15, and Chris Hatcher) for a year of Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Jarred Cosart, and Aaron Crow."

[TheLeviathan]

You might be seeing something like this going on in Miami right now.  Just read this:

 

"The Marlins have now traded 4 of their top 7 prospects (and their #15, and Chris Hatcher) for a year of Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Jarred Cosart, and Aaron Crow."

 

No team manages to baffle, intrigue, horrify, and infuriate me all at the same time quite like the Marlins.

[Mike Sixel]

Not a fan of what the Marlins are doing. I have no issue trading prospects, but not like this, imo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

White Sox sign Melky Cabrera, 3 years, $42 million:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/white-sox-to-sign-melky-cabrera.html

 

SInce they already lost their 2nd round pick for signing David Robertson, they now forfeit their 3rd round draft pick in 2015.

[tobi0040]

Like I said, every signing so far has been met here with, "that's too much money" or "that's too many years" or "I wouldn't sign that guy he's not good"......well, apparently, a hug number of MLB teams disagree.

 

Mccarthy and Ervin both made their debut in 2005 and are about the same age.  Mccarthy has an ERA of 4.09 and just 980 IP.  Ervin has 1,880 IP with a 4.17 ERA.

 

The two guys got essentially the same deal. Looks to me like that is too many years for Mccarthy.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mccarthy and Ervin both made their debut in 2005 and are about the same age.  Mccarthy has an ERA of 4.09 and just 980 IP.  Ervin has 1,880 IP with a 4.17 ERA.

 

The two guys got essentially the same deal. Looks to me like that is too many years for Mccarthy.  

It should be noted that McCarthy has somewhat better peripherals, thus a better FIP/xFIP than Santana.  Still surprised by McCarthy's deal (MLBTR predicted 3/36).

[tobi0040]

It should be noted that McCarthy has somewhat better peripherals, thus a better FIP/xFIP than Santana.  Still surprised by McCarthy's deal (MLBTR predicted 3/36).

 

For me, $12M a year for a guy that will get you 100 IP better be as one of the top pitchers in the game while  healthy (same pay as a $24M pitcher that pitches 200 IP).  Mccarthy has not been.  Maybe an 8 start stretch right before becoming a free agent....

[tobi0040]

White Sox sign Melky Cabrera, 3 years, $42 million:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/white-sox-to-sign-melky-cabrera.html

 

SInce they already lost their 2nd round pick for signing David Robertson, they now forfeit their 3rd round draft pick in 2015.

 

I would not have been thrilled if the Twins made this signing.  $13M a year for ages 30-33 corner OF.  He is already a negative defensive player (-2.1 dWAR the last two years).  And I don't think his offense offsets that.  Career OPS + of 103.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It's odd; each deal on its own feels like a questionable call, yet when they are all put together, I can't shake the feeling that the White Sox really improved their roster for the near future (3 or more seasons).

 

I agree that I don't think the Twins would have benefitted from making these deals themselves (though I think I could live with a 3 year deal for Melky compared to the 5-6 years he was rumored to be asking for...).

 

I will feel a lot better if the Twins add one more defense first outfielder (or if Rosario breaks out in 2015 and ends up playing in the field a lot with great defense).