MLB Trade Rumors - Tomas

[Riverbrian]

Are we sure that Rosario is not better than Tomas?

I know for a FACT!!! That I'm not sure at all.

 

I haven't seen Tomas at all. I've seen Rosario maybe twice. I lack comparable data to compare the two and I don't know if the people writing articles on any of them are idiots or not idiots.

 

All I know is this... Having Rosario in hand would not prevent me from acquiring Tomas in the bush if I thought he could make a difference.

[bird]

And how many times has that happened?  With Hughes and Nolasco, TR had to drawn be into the signing hunt by Pohlad kicking and screaming.  Bringing in Tomas would be a bold master stroke, but I'm not holding my breath about it happening.  They've already promised us a heaping helping of Hunter.

Your claim about Nolasco and Hughes is not based on any facts.

[Sam Morley]

I'm 99 percent sure Moncada is subject to the singing bonus cap.

 

Tomas is not. There would be no rule to break.

Moncada  for sure is. Tomas is not because of his age?

[Physics Guy]

Moncada  for sure is. Tomas is not because of his age?

Correct

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Nah, Chief said he has a hunch, based on your time stamp, Bark, you just missed lunch.

 

And if the Twins would somehow mirculously pull this off, it would sure put the Phillie Phanatic's feathers in a bunch.

 

Unfortunately, the Giants or A's will probably beat the Twins to the punch.

 

Good one Jokin. Come to think of it, I did not eat lunch yesterday. You might be on to something.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I won't complain if they do it, but I think I'd rather have Kemp in left who can play above average defense with his production.  Granted Tomas will cost 100M for a few more years than Kemp, but there's more certainty with Kemp as well.  Either way, I won't complain....

 

As for Rosario, I don't think he's a slugger in the mold of Tomas, and given that he's yet to do well in a full season of AA, I'm not ready to hand him the LF job.  Hicks outperformed Rosario in AA for what it's worth.  Rosario strikes me as a guy who can be a very good MLB player (10-20 HRs with a bunch of doubles and a decent average while playing above average defense), but I'd much rather Rosario be doing that as a 2B or a CF which means he's likely traded.  I'd personally leave him out of the discussion for the time being.

[jokin]

Your claim about Nolasco and Hughes is not based on any facts.

 

Yeah, no facts.... besides the fact that Pohlad made it very public that the purse strings were now open, that all offseason- to the end with Ervin Santana, that they were actually going for four SP signings, not three, and the fact that the Twins had never done anything like this ever before, shattering all previous offseason records, in terms of FA signing amounts.... yeah, besides those... "not based on any facts..."

[Bark's Lounge]

I won't complain if they do it, but I think I'd rather have Kemp in left who can play above average defense with his production.  Granted Tomas will cost 100M for a few more years than Kemp, but there's more certainty with Kemp as well.  Either way, I won't complain....

I'd be pretty thrilled if we were able to swing a deal for Kemp. For the past few months I have seen Kemp being mentioned as an acquirable piece. I have read that kind of stuff on a handful sites, but is it really in the best interest of the Dodgers to trade him?

 

He had a good offensive year last year, but it is apparent he needs to be a corner outfielder moving forward. I look at the Dodger's roster and it appears that they need his offense. Ethier is pretty much done with, Crawford is an injury risk and not the player he once was, and Joc Pederson, although a handsome prospect, has not proven anything at the mlb level. His numbers in the PCL look awesome, but that is the PCL  - a very outrageous offense up the keishter league. But the evaluators I am sure value him on his skill set and makeup and not the numbers he has put up in Albuquerque.

 

I understand that Kemp is easily the most movable player out of himself, Ethier or Crawford. But, dang, don't you think that would be a huge risk for the Dodgers to lose his offensive production?

[BrianTrottier]

I like both thoughts of acquiring Kemp or Tomas. I was reading that a lot of scouts project Tomas to be about a 2 WAR guy per season which would value him at about $12 million a year, but Kemp hasn't put up 2 WAR since 2012 (baseball-reference). I suppose Kemp might be 'less risky' in that he's a known commodity whereas Tomas is essentially a prospect.  I'm not sure that Kemp would be a better alternative defensively--his UZR and runs saved look to be on a pretty quick decline (Fangraphs). So I guess if there were a hypothetical choice to be made on the Twins' part maybe Tomas would be the better alternative since his glove is serviceable in left and he's got his prime offensive years in front of him if he develops as hoped. I don't know..who do people think we would have to give up in order to acquire Kemp and get the Dodgers to take on most of his contract?

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Nah, Chief said he has a hunch, based on your time stamp, Bark, you just missed lunch.

 

And if the Twins would somehow mirculously pull this off, it would sure put the Phillie Phanatic's feathers in a bunch.

 

Unfortunately, the Giants or A's will probably beat the Twins to the punch.

 

On further evaluation of this post, I have concluded that words that have been put in bold amount to a teenage 1980's hip hop group and their hit single, which is about spiking the punch at a high school dance with vodka.

 

Hunch Lunch Bunch

"Punch"

 

DefJam Recordings (1987)

[Secondary User]

1) What do the Twins do if they have Tomas / Rosario / Buxton / Hicks / Arcia / Schafer / & Walker all materialize as true MLB caliber talents?  Who goes (traded) and whose skill set would you want playing in your outfield (offensively or defensively or both)?

 

You celebrate ecstatically and trade away who you can part with to help keep your farm system strong.  The organization has money to spend, and this is one area where their major hang up with big contracts may not be an issue.  More often than not, it seems to be years over AAV that is the issue in signing guys.  Being only 24, there is a lot greater chance of signing a long term contract in which he is still productive toward the end of it.

 

If they decide to spend their money elsewhere, so be it.  But at this point, I think they have enough pieces up and enough close to being up that they should be investing into free agency.  Up to this point, I can understand holding back and making sure you keep your payroll flexible.  But I think we've reached a critical juncture where you start finding the pieces to supplement your farm

[bird]

Yeah, no facts.... besides the fact that Pohlad made it very public that the purse strings were now open, that all offseason- to the end with Ervin Santana, that they were actually going for four SP signings, not three, and the fact that the Twins had never done anything like this ever before, shattering all previous offseason records, in terms of FA signing amounts.... yeah, besides those... "not based on any facts..."

My dear brother, are you maybe just pretending Ryan and his team had nothing to do with all of this? Jim Pohlad explicitly spoke last year about his intentions to "go for four SP signings" last year? Sorry, I don't believe he ever said anything of the sort, nothing even close to this.

 

 Ryan and his group are fair game for criticism, but we don't need to paint the kind of picture you're trying to paint. Ryan may have winced at the market prices for Nolasco and Hughes, but don't try to tell me he was dragged kicking and screaming, objecting to the decision and being overruled by Pohlad. 

 

As far as the interest in Tomas, I might guess that Ryan's feeling a bit of "encouragement" from the front office, maybe not specifically about Tomas, but about not using financial limitations as an excuse. We just don't know the actual facts.

[jokin]

My dear brother, the one fact for certain here  is that you're pretending Ryan and his team had nothing to do with all of this. Jim Pohlad explicitly spoke about his intentions to "go for four SP signings"? Sorry, I don't believe he ever said anything of the sort, nothing even close to this.

 

 Ryan and his group are fair game for criticism, but we don't need to paint the kind of picture you're trying to paint. Ryan may have winced at the market prices for Nolasco and Hughes, but don't try to tell me he was dragged kicking and screaming, objecting to the decision and being overruled by Pohlad. 

 

You are free to believe what you wish to believe, but since the facts overwhelmingly don't support your position, I will continue to try to tell you that Ryan "was ('figuratively') dragged kicking and screaming, objecting to the decision and being overruled by  Pohlad."  I never said it was a literal thing, and I never said he publicly objected, hence the cross-out. Ryan's 21-year-career body of work is obvious evidence enough to suggest that last offseason was not his style of management, and Pohlad very uncharacteristically publicly inserted himself into a situation in which the wheels had fallen off.  It's pretty self-evident, in the instances of both the Molitor to coach-to-manager-in-waiting hiring and the FA spending spree are his doing, not Ryan's. 

[TheLeviathan]

You can have facts and still pull a conclusion from them that is highly dubious.  Of course there is reason to be a skeptic about the Twins and their offseason aggressiveness, but that isn't the same as suggesting that the guy who negotiates and signs contracts did so unwillingly last year.

 

In fact, it's not even remotely the same thing.

[jokin]

You can have facts and still pull a conclusion from them that is highly dubious.  Of course there is reason to be a skeptic about the Twins and their offseason aggressiveness, but that isn't the same as suggesting that the guy who negotiates and signs contracts did so unwillingly last year.

 

In fact, it's not even remotely the same thing.

 

Uhh, when has it been said that the guy who negotiates and signs contracts did so unwillingly?  I thought it was obvious that "kicking and screaming" is a figure of speech, not Terry Ryan actually having an infant temper tantrum or instigating a work action.  

 

There's no doubt that TR is a good soldier and a good company man and did pretty good in his attempt at executing the Pohlad-directed fix- ie, on his own, he'd never put a guy-in-waiting in the seat next to Gardy.  It's not arguable that what happened last offseason was Ryan's standard MO for his vision as the acting Twins GM.  Let's put the shoe on the other foot, can anyone argue that Ryan has ever marched into Carl's or Jim's office and demanded that a similar plan be put in place since 1994?

[TheLeviathan]

Uhh, when has it been said that the guy who negotiates and signs contracts did so unwillingly?  

 

"Dragged kicking and screaming" doesn't exactly fit your explanation of what you meant.  Like, at all.

[jokin]

"Dragged kicking and screaming" doesn't exactly fit your explanation of what you meant.  Like, at all.

 

There's this literary device, I know you've heard of it.  "Figure of speech."

 

Hard as it is to believe, words on the internet aren't literal 100% of the time.

[TheLeviathan]

There's this literary device, I know you've heard of it.  "Figure of speech."

 

Hard as it is to believe, words on the internet aren't literal 100% of the time.

 

I'll leave it at this: those taking issue with your post all were aware you were using a figure of speech.  That's not the problem.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- let's stop beating the dead horse about whether TR was dragged kicking and screaming.  The decision to commit unprecedented funds to free agents last year was made behind closed doors.  It seems possible that TR recommended this and the owners wanted to claim the credit.  In this scenario, TR would have been wise to allow the owners to claim the credit, even if this would make TR seem cheap.  It also seems possible that the owners directed TR to do this despite TR's reservations.  It also seems possible (and in my mind this is the most probable scenario) that there were hours of discussion that resulted in a plan that everyone agreed with, and the owners wanted to make sure that they got fair credit.

 

In any event, this thread is getting too personal.  If someone wants to start a new thread posting links to evidence that supports one view or the other, then please feel free to do so; however I suspect that until someone writes his memoirs (and is honest) we will never know the full/true story.

[Major League Ready]

One thing that consistently seems overlooked here is that before Target Field, the Twins were near the bottom of the league in revenue.  Yet, people want to make historical comparisons.  They should be compared to their peers which has changed from Tampa, Oakland, KC, and Pitt to the Brewers, Reds, Orioles, and Rockies.

 

Therefore, the first thing we need to do in this discussion is define "Off-season Aggression".   Will the Twins be aggressive if the outspend Tampa and KC or will they be passive because LA, NY, and Boston outspend them.  IMO, there are a number of people who post here that expect the Twins to spend like a big market team.  What really blows me away is that approach fails often for teams that can afford several huge failures and still have the Twins budget to work with.  So, why do we want to emulate that approach when we have a huge revenue disadvantage?

 

Let's follow the STL model.  They have been consistent because they develop players and make smart trades.  Acquisition as opposed to retention of FA's has been very selective.  We have to be even more selective than STL as they have a revenue advantage over us.  

[Mike Sixel]

Before Ryan, in the same stadium, they made Jack Morris one of the highest paid players in baseball. They also signed other expensive (at the time) players. So, it isn't just "before Target Field"....there is precedence in the delta between McPhail and TR as GMs. I'm sure there's some other reason people will offer that explains that away.

 

What's with the myth that the Cardinals don't sign free agents?

 

I've never read one person here suggest the Twins spend more than $125MM or so, and even that is an outlier at the upper end of what people have suggested. I've never read anyone here say they should try to spend as much as LA or NYY. 

 

What people have asked for is that when they are spending 75 or 80MM.....that they either:

 

1. Save money for the future, and spend really big.....using that money and not then saying they have a high payroll.

2. Signing 1-2 good FA a year, every year, until they don't have zero legit OF options during an entire season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

One thing that consistently seems overlooked here is that before Target Field, the Twins were near the bottom of the league in revenue.  Yet, people want to make historical comparisons.

When TR left in 2007, the RECORD international bonus was around $2.5 mil, or less than we guaranteed Ramon Ortiz the prior season.  Yet the Twins were among the least active and lowest spending MLB teams internationally throughout TR's first tenure.

 

Also, Target Field was approved in 2005, and the Twins had a young superstar pitcher at the time and two more superstar players emerged in 2006.  Yet TR didn't sign any of them beyond 1 FA year.

 

While the Metrodome revenue was certainly a limiting factor, given his record across everything (FA, trades, international, draft, extensions), I am pretty comfortable concluding TR is very conservative and slow to change/react.

 

My theory on last offseason was less that TR was dragged kicking and screaming into FA by Pohlad, and more that he was dragged kicking and screaming into FA by two historically awful seasons of starting pitching.  That's why I am skeptical we will see a big sign for OF this year -- it doesn't look to be in quite as bad of shape as that (although without Santana, it could be close).

[tobi0040]

In my view, the Twins would be foolish to sign this guy.  Many think he will get $100M over six years or so.  If you look at his numbers from Cuba at the same age, in the same league….Cespedes had much better numbers (Abreu's numbers put them both to shame.).  Including power numbers which is supposed to Tomas strength.  After his first year when no tape existed, Cespedes has put up an OPS of .737 and .719.  

 

On the FA ranking below, the players ranked 2-8 behind Tomas all have a better career OPS than the numbers Cespedes has put up.  These guys are all going to get contracts with less money and fewer years.   Now I get some of these guys are old and have defensive issues, but several scouts have questioned Tomas defense as well.   If we are going to drop $100M, lets sign a pitcher which is the actual problem we have. 

 

 

Cruz         .829 OPS
Melky        .754 OPS
Markakis   .793 OPS
Rasmus    .751 OPS
Hunter       .799 OPS
Cuddyer    .813 OPS
Rios          .762 OPS

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2115336-how-hyped-defector-yasmani-tomas-compares-to-recent-cuban-phenoms

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2014-11-06/free-agents-2015-ranking-best-top-10-outfielders-cruz-cabrera

[Mike Sixel]

You may or may not know.......Cuba did several things to make the league less offense focused two years ago. So, his OPS looks lower than other Cubans for sure.

 

I have no idea if Tomas is good or not, I'm not nearly as excited about him as I was Abreu or Puig.....based on what you can read on line.

[tobi0040]

In my view, the Twins would be foolish to sign this guy.  Many think he will get $100M over six years or so.  If you look at his numbers from Cuba at the same age, in the same league….Cespedes had much better numbers (Abreu's numbers put them both to shame.).  Including power numbers which is supposed to Tomas strength.  After his first year when no tape existed, Cespedes has put up an OPS of .737 and .719.  

 

On the FA ranking below, the players ranked 2-8 behind Tomas all have a better career OPS than the numbers Cespedes has put up.  These guys are all going to get contracts with less money and fewer years.   Now I get some of these guys are old and have defensive issues, but several scouts have questioned Tomas defense as well.   If we are going to drop $100M, lets sign a pitcher which is the actual problem we have. 

 

 

Cruz         .829 OPS

Melky        .754 OPS

Markakis   .793 OPS

Rasmus    .751 OPS

Hunter       .799 OPS

Cuddyer    .813 OPS

Rios          .762 OPS

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2115336-how-hyped-defector-yasmani-tomas-compares-to-recent-cuban-phenoms

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2014-11-06/free-agents-2015-ranking-best-top-10-outfielders-cruz-cabrera

 

But I am guessing Tomas settles in the MLB as a guy that does not put up Nelson Cruz numbers, but Cruz will be much cheaper.  That is the point.

 

If you can get Colby Rasmus for 1-10 or 3-30, why would you give Tomas $100M over 6 years?  Rasmus will at minimum be a better defender while probably outperforming Cespedes offensively....who looks better than Tomas.

 

This is like the shiny new X-Mas toy that nobody cares about on December 27th.

[nicksaviking]

But I am guessing Tomas settles in the MLB as a guy that does not put up Nelson Cruz numbers, but Cruz will be much cheaper.  That is the point.

 

If you can get Colby Rasmus for 1-10 or 3-30, why would you give Tomas $100M over 6 years?  Rasmus will at minimum be a better defender while probably outperforming Cespedes offensively....who looks better than Tomas.

 

This is like the shiny new X-Mas toy that nobody cares about on December 27th.

 

You may be right about Thomas, but I think you are way over-valuing Rasmus.  We're talking about a guy who's had a sub .740 OPS in four of his six seasons, and his defense is below average.  He'd be a 4th OF for most contending clubs. Getting Rasmus shouldn't be an alternative to getting Tomas, getting Rasmus should be an alternative to playing Jordan Schafer.

[tobi0040]

You may be right about Thomas, but I think you are way over-valuing Rasmus.  We're talking about a guy who's had a sub .740 OPS in four of his six seasons, and his defense is below average.  He'd be a 4th OF for most contending clubs. Getting Rasmus shouldn't be an alternative to getting Tomas, getting Rasmus should be an alternative to playing Jordan Schafer.

 

Rasmus is coming off seasons of .840 and .735.

 

Rasmus career Dwar is +2.4 and those innings have been almost exclusively as a CF.   So if we are comparing Rasmus to Tomas defensively, I am taking the guy that can play an adequate CF over the guy whose corner OF defense has been quesioned.

 

The point of the comp is that offensively I think they will be in the same ballpark, defensively I would give Rasmus the edge.....but Tomas is going to get $100M. 

[Brandon]

Looking at all the options on the market and los Angeles OF only and in our minors here is what I see.

 

Hunter on a 1 year 12-15 million

Denorfia on a 2 year 10-16 million (not sure what he is worth exactly)

Rios on a 1 year make good contract 8 - 10 million + incentives maybe

 

Rasmus maybe 1 year 10-13 million make good contract or 3 year 36 million

Aoki expects a 3 year 24 million.  I expect a 2 year 14-16 million for him

 

Thomas 7 year 77 - 91 million

 

Trade for Los Angeles OF and we pay most of salary so we don't have to give up too much 15-20 million per season depending on which one we get. 

 

If I believe in the OF prospects coming up I pick from the first group and call it good.  Thomas is at least a prospect in that his prime years are during the contract.  so on an annual basis isn't too prohibitive as long as you are confident he can be in the bigs within a year if not right off the bat.  Also I believe if the Twins bid for Thomas then he will likely make it as a big leaguer.  Its not offer the Twins make scouting of prospects mistakes (Nobody watched Nishioka)  and the Twins would have to watch anyone they sign close to 100 million before they sign. 

 

But from me in my armchair I say sign Hunter then if he goes somewhere else get Denorfia, Rios, then Aoki in that order.  I am fine if the Twins sign Tomas as I'll defer to their judgment on that one but I am not going to push for it just to make it happen.

[tobi0040]

Looking at all the options on the market and los Angeles OF only and in our minors here is what I see.

 

Hunter on a 1 year 12-15 million

Denorfia on a 2 year 10-16 million (not sure what he is worth exactly)

Rios on a 1 year make good contract 8 - 10 million + incentives maybe

 

Rasmus maybe 1 year 10-13 million make good contract or 3 year 36 million

Aoki expects a 3 year 24 million.  I expect a 2 year 14-16 million for him

 

Thomas 7 year 77 - 91 million

 

Trade for Los Angeles OF and we pay most of salary so we don't have to give up too much 15-20 million per season depending on which one we get. 

 

If I believe in the OF prospects coming up I pick from the first group and call it good.  Thomas is at least a prospect in that his prime years are during the contract.  so on an annual basis isn't too prohibitive as long as you are confident he can be in the bigs within a year if not right off the bat.  Also I believe if the Twins bid for Thomas then he will likely make it as a big leaguer.  Its not offer the Twins make scouting of prospects mistakes (Nobody watched Nishioka)  and the Twins would have to watch anyone they sign close to 100 million before they sign. 

 

But from me in my armchair I say sign Hunter then if he goes somewhere else get Denorfia, Rios, then Aoki in that order.  I am fine if the Twins sign Tomas as I'll defer to their judgment on that one but I am not going to push for it just to make it happen.

 

I think committing $90-100M on a corner OF is really losing focus on what our problems are.  Pitching and OF defense.  Tomas does not help either.

 

We should be able to sign any number of guys that can help us defensively and we should be able to platoon a number of guys and get adequate offense.  Hicks has a career .750 OPS against lefties for example.    If we are going to drop $100M, lets sign a pitcher.

[Mike Sixel]

Please do not sign Hunter. He's an awful fielder, he's not part of the future, go for it: go get a player in trade or something.