Mets sign Cuddyer

[Monkeypaws]

Cuddyer signing with the Mets might simply be his desire to play closer to his home in NC.

 

Just a thought.

 

Living in New York would be a blast for a wealthy man.

 

I love going there. 

 

Thankful it wasn't the Yankees. I would hate to see Cuddy in that regalia.

[stringer bell]

Cuddyer was born and raised in Virginia. He graduated from Great Bridge High School, IIRC. He, Wright and the Uptons are all from the same area.

[biggentleben]

I'm so excited to have the Mets continue to make moves like this.  They're now rumored to be after Tulowitzki.  Over/Under 20 games with all three of Wright/Cuddyer/Tulo in the lineup?

[twinsnorth49]

Whew!!

[tobi0040]

The Mets must like former Colorado OF. A part time Cuddyer is still better than Eric Young for the Mets. They must have very little in their upper minor leagues for outfielders.

 

Drafting is a crap shoot. FWIW, the last 15th selection to produce was Stephan Drew. If the Mets get a couple of solid Cuddyer type years they are probably ahead

 

But if you are coming off a 66-96 season, you need more 15th overal picks than you do 35-36 year old, injury prone OF's. 

 

And is he really a great player?  His career WAR in 14 seasons is 15.9.

 

Just a head scratcher for me. 

 

Lastly, the fact that he turned down 1-15 for 2-21 could be a sign that he doesn't think he has anything left in the tank, as in next off-season I won't have an offer for $6 million.

[DocBauer]

Good for Cuddy, one of my favorite all time Twins!!

 

But completely unexpected. I really thought it a surprise when the Rockies offered him the QO, considering age and injury. Thought for sure he'd take it. I think the Mets definitely overpaid.

 

But while it may sound trite to say, if he can actually stay healthy for the contract, it's a fair deal and maybe even a bargain. Look, he's an experienced pro who can still hit, still generate power, still knock in runs, offers position and BO flexibility, and tremendous leadership and clubhouse presence.

 

Unfortunately, I just don't know if he can maintain the health part of it. Sure hope he does.

[biggentleben]

Good for Cuddy, one of my favorite all time Twins!!

 

But completely unexpected. I really thought it a surprise when the Rockies offered him the QO, considering age and injury. Thought for sure he'd take it. I think the Mets definitely overpaid.

 

But while it may sound trite to say, if he can actually stay healthy for the contract, it's a fair deal and maybe even a bargain. Look, he's an experienced pro who can still hit, still generate power, still knock in runs, offers position and BO flexibility, and tremendous leadership and clubhouse presence.

 

Unfortunately, I just don't know if he can maintain the health part of it. Sure hope he does.

 

Cuddy was really worth his money one year of his three in Colorado, and he's not getting younger.  I'm not cheering against him or anything, but I'm certainly not putting any money on him in favor of him outperforming his deal.

[Physics Guy]

Any chance the Rox has suspicions that Cuddy was looking elsewhere and might sign with somebody regardless of the QO?  Shrewd move by the Rox if so.  I was shocked they offered it.

[kab21]

This is the first indication that teams will have more money than they can spend this winter.  The money really isn't a problem but rather the direction that the Mets are going.  Seems like a last gasp attempt for an older team to stay .500. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Drafting is a crap shoot. FWIW, the last 15th selection to produce was Stephan Drew. If the Mets get a couple of solid Cuddyer type years they are probably ahead

If a front office has that little faith in their scouting department, they need to go find a new scouting department.

[Mike Sixel]

Another thing....maybe they plan to sign another QO guy, and they are "only" giving up a 2nd rounder for him (which is around the 65th pick this year, or so).

[Brock Beauchamp]

But while it may sound trite to say, if he can actually stay healthy for the contract, it's a fair deal and maybe even a bargain. Look, he's an experienced pro who can still hit, still generate power, still knock in runs, offers position and BO flexibility, and tremendous leadership and clubhouse presence.

It's not a bargain if you have to give up a pick for Cuddyer and you're a 66 win team. The Mets should be hoarding prospects and picks right now, not giving them away for stop-gap players in the twilight of their career.

 

Sure, there's a chance Cuddy plays $21m worth of baseball over the next two years... But that shouldn't really matter to the Mets. They should care about prospects and draft picks right now.

[Willihammer]

The Mets are truly the cheapest organization in baseball.

[kab21]

The Mets are truly the cheapest organization in baseball.

 

I would say one of the worst run orgs but not cheap.  They love spending money on players that are ready for a massive decline. 

[tobi0040]

I would say one of the worst run orgs but not cheap.  They love spending money on players that are ready for a massive decline. 

 

Agreed.  They make really foolish free agent signings.  But they are not cheap.  They did have to restrict payroll for a stretch of time because their owner lost almost all his money in the Madoff scheme.  The team was losing money and he needed to get them towards even.

 

Bobby Bonilla is on their payroll until 2024

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

But if you are coming off a 66-96 season, you need more 15th overal picks than you do 35-36 year old, injury prone OF's. 

 

 

It's not a bargain if you have to give up a pick for Cuddyer and you're a 66 win team. The Mets should be hoarding prospects and picks right now, not giving them away for stop-gap players in the twilight of their career.

 

Not sure where this idea that the Mets were a 66-win team came from, but it seems to be spreading now. The Mets finished 2 games under .500 last year.

 

I think the Cuddyer deal is dumb, but it's not hard to imagine their front office thinking they'll sniff contention again soon.

[tobi0040]

Not sure where this idea that the Mets were a 66-win team came from, but it seems to be spreading now. The Mets finished 2 games under .500 last year.

 

I think the Cuddyer deal is dumb, but it's not hard to imagine their front office thinking they'll sniff contention again soon.

 

I looked up the wrong team (colordado, not New York).  NYM was 79-83.  good catch. Does not excuse them though!

[TheLeviathan]

I can't make a damn bit of sense out of this.

[tobi0040]

I can't make a damn bit of sense out of this.

 

I read a chat by Shoenfeld from ESPN.  He ripped on the Rockies for making Cuddy a QO about four times.  Towards the end, he was asked what was the most surprising QO he saw...he started answering those questions with "other than Cuddyer, my most surpsing was...."

 

Now they got a pick in the mid 40's and the Mets lose their 15th.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

As a former Mets fan (in my college days) I don't understand deal giving 2 years to a 35 year-old injury prone OF. It goes along with a long history (Bonilla for starters) of overpaid too long contracts. As a Cuddyer fan (one of my two favorite ex-Twins) good for him--gets closer to home--plays with his friend David Wright and gets 22 million at his age.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not sure where this idea that the Mets were a 66-win team came from, but it seems to be spreading now. The Mets finished 2 games under .500 last year.

 

I think the Cuddyer deal is dumb, but it's not hard to imagine their front office thinking they'll sniff contention again soon.

Ah yeah, my mistake for propagating that error.

 

That's why the draft pick thing didn't make sense to me. So the Mets lose their first round pick, not a second round pick.

 

That makes it worse, not better. Giving up a 15th overall pick and $21m for two years of Cuddyer?

 

Uh, no thank you.

[TheLeviathan]

I read a chat by Shoenfeld from ESPN.  He ripped on the Rockies for making Cuddy a QO about four times.  Towards the end, he was asked what was the most surprising QO he saw...he started answering those questions with "other than Cuddyer, my most surpsing was...."

 

Now they got a pick in the mid 40's and the Mets lose their 15th.

 

Colorado got bailed out of a dubious QO.  The Met's decision is beyond perplexing.

[jharaldson]

The 15th pick in the draft has produced 9 players in 50 years that have accumulated 10 or more WAR in their career.  That is an 18% hit rate.  I think it is interesting for a team like the Mets to ditch the 18% chance on 10+ WAR 6-10 years from now and to go for someone like Cuddy who has a much more solid chance of giving the Mets what he gave the Rockies, about 4 WAR over 2 years.  The Mets were a 79 win team last year and if you add a couple of wins here and there suddenly you are competing.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=15&draft_type=junreg&

[Mike Sixel]

I'm rethinking my disgust......

 

IF Wright is healthy, and Cuddy adds 2 wins, and their SP is a bit better, they could be the lucky Royals team this year. That has to be their thinking. 

[tobi0040]

The 15th pick in the draft has produced 9 players in 50 years that have accumulated 10 or more WAR in their career.  That is an 18% hit rate.  I think it is interesting for a team like the Mets to ditch the 18% chance on 10+ WAR 6-10 years from now and to go for someone like Cuddy who has a much more solid chance of giving the Mets what he gave the Rockies, about 4 WAR over 2 years.  The Mets were a 79 win team last year and if you add a couple of wins here and there suddenly you are competing.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=15&draft_type=junreg&

 

Cuddy has a total of 14.9 WAR over 14 years.  The biggest issue with giving up first round draft picks for 35 year old free agents is the fact that if the draft pick pans out you can get 6-7 relatively cheap years of peak production if you do it right.  Then you can sign the guy longer if you like, or in many cases get draft pick compensation back in the event he leaves.

 

18% seems low....but that is an 18% shot at getting 7 years of ages 23-29 or so for under $30M.   Versus Cuddy at 35-36 who is not a 100% proposition.  He has missed 190 games over the last three years. 

 

In 2012 Cuddy's dWAR offset his Owar.

 

In 2013 Cuddy's dWAR negated 2.6 of his 3.7 oWar (net 1.1 WAR when he won a batting title)

 

In 2014 Cuddy was worth .9 wins.

 

You just can't start with 79 wins and add $10M to your salary for every .5-1 WAR and get to the playoffs without a payroll under about $250M.

[Mike Sixel]

Or, you have a more certain future than present.....so you go get an OF/1B to fix your hole on the roster that was almost .500 last year. The present is always more certain than the future. Cuddeyer is more likely to be a MLB next year than the 15th pick is in any year.

 

and no, they don't need to add 150MM in salary to get there. And, they probably think Cuddeyer is closer to a 2 WAR player if healthy (they are probably wrong).

[jharaldson]

According to Baseball-Reference Cuddyer produced a 1.2 WAR in 2014 and Fangraphs had him at 1.5 so I am not sure where the numbers above are coming from?  If you go by fWAR Cuddyer produced 3.9 WAR over the past 2 years.  I have no evidence to back this up but my gut tells me he has a 66% chance of doing that over the next 2 years.  Is a 66% chance of 4 WAR over the next 2 years better than an 18% of 15-20 WAR that starts in over 6 years?  I don't know but I do think it is interesting that a team is thinking outside of the box that prospects are the only thing that matter.  

[tobi0040]

Or, you have a more certain future than present.....so you go get an OF/1B to fix your hole on the roster that was almost .500 last year. The present is always more certain than the future. Cuddeyer is more likely to be a MLB next year than the 15th pick is in any year.

 

and no, they don't need to add 150MM in salary to get there. And, they probably think Cuddeyer is closer to a 2 WAR player if healthy (they are probably wrong).

 

Methinks if a team gave up a first round pick every year for a 35 year old with injury issues, who has averaged 1 WAR a year over his career.    Sure it is certain that player will be in the MLB this year.  But it is also certain in the long run that will be a terrible team with a very high payroll.

[tobi0040]

According to Baseball-Reference Cuddyer produced a 1.2 WAR in 2014 and Fangraphs had him at 1.5 so I am not sure where the numbers above are coming from?  If you go by fWAR Cuddyer produced 3.9 WAR over the past 2 years.  I have no evidence to back this up but my gut tells me he has a 66% chance of doing that over the next 2 years.  Is a 66% chance of 4 WAR over the next 2 years better than an 18% of 15-20 WAR that starts in over 6 years?  I don't know but I do think it is interesting that a team is thinking outside of the box that prospects are the only thing that matter.  

 

I have him at 1.8 oWAR - .9 dWAR = .9 WAR at Baseball reference.

 

For his career, 26 oWAR and -15dWAR.  i.e. not a real valuable player.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuddymi01.shtml?redir

[tobi0040]

Or, you have a more certain future than present.....so you go get an OF/1B to fix your hole on the roster that was almost .500 last year. The present is always more certain than the future. Cuddeyer is more likely to be a MLB next year than the 15th pick is in any year.

 

and no, they don't need to add 150MM in salary to get there. And, they probably think Cuddeyer is closer to a 2 WAR player if healthy (they are probably wrong).

 

They have a payroll at $90M before the Cuddy signing.  Baseball reference has him at under a WAR a year for his career...

 

If we assume he will be at .75 WAR this year.  For $10M.  To add 11 wins (for a total of 90) I get to a payroll of $236M.