Mackey: Twins should emulate the Cardinals

[nicksaviking]

The Real Deal pitched this season in the Mexican League for Yucatan for 3 games with a 58.50 ERA... So... sort of?

 

Sure he gave up 5 HR and 5 BB in 2 IP, but I heard his OF defense was terrible.

[old nurse]

Looking at the Cardinals and how they maintain is different than rebuilding. They have been very good for a long time. In 07 and 08 they were middle of the pack. One year they add Lohse, the next Carpenter, and off they have been ever since.

Not all of their trades work out. Like the list of formrt Twins posted earlier, there are probably a lot of players the Cardinals got very little for, or players no cut loose.

How they seem to mantain the pitching is primarily drafting arms with command of a mid 90 fastball and add the other pitches. Gonzales is an exception to this.

They appear to do a good job of signing free agents. Lohse did not have an ERA under 4 until  he was with them. He was not an overly large contract. Carpenter worked out. They did not keep Jackson. Beltran signed for only 2 years. Holliday may slow down a bit, but they certainly have recieved their money's worth out of him with 2 more years to go.

The Twins are trying to add mid 90's pitchers and teach them the secondary pitches. The difference is the Cards have the players in the majors in 2-3 years. Maybe they were lucky with Lynn, Miller and Wacha. The Twins did have a bit of good luck drafting former Candian hockey goalies. Luck is possible

[old nurse]

So, the best way to emulate the Cardinals is by building a competitive, veteran MLB team, and then incorporating your farm system as players prove they are ready, carving out roles for them, and not depending on them to succeed right away.

If you look back when the Cardinals first got good they had a lot of older players culled from other organizations.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins are trying to add mid 90's pitchers

I hope you are talking fastball speeds and not pitchers from the mid-1990s.

[Rosterman]

Steve, I agree completely - the rebuild didn't really begin until the FO had accepted that they were never going to compete again with their late 2000s core. Replacing Cuddy, Kubel and Nathan after 2011 with Willingham, Revere and Perkins wasn't a sign of rebuilding so much as the (should be) normal year-to-year cleaning out of aging, overpriced assets for younger and/or cheaper alternatives. Trading Liriano, Span and Revere in the 2nd half of 2012 was, for me, the signal that the FO was looking to reinforce a new core which was mostly in the low minors. So, by my reckoning, we're somewhere around 2.5 years into the rebuild.

 

And we're already beginning to see results! Yes! In 2014 the Twins were outscored by 75 runs, a 50-run improvement over any of the previous 3 seasons. There has been a clear change of approach in drafting, favoring power arms at last. There have been more potential contributors drafted outside the first couple of rounds. The FO is old and set in its ways and is a plodding ship to get turned around. Slowly, we're seeing them change for the better. Resisting Suzuki-type extensions is the next domino I want to see fall - maybe the new manager can help them with that.

 

Well, this is the rub. The Twins allowed players that year like Cuddy, Nathan and Kubel to walk rather than get anything, really, back for them. They make offers to Hunter or Santana, probably knowing that they won't be accepted, but, hey, nto our fault, we made an offer.

 

Seems the best deals the Twins have made of late is flipping Thome and Correia for...cash!

 

You let older players go, but get something, anything in return, and then turn around and spend that saved money on replacement parts. 

 

No matter if it is off season or during the season, every organization has those 26th and 41st players, guys who are blocked, out of options, waiting for a chance to perform, and they are available at the right time. You either trade them or end up losing them. Just like calling the bluff on free agents. Was Kris Johnson better than nothing for Morneau. Did the Twins really get skunked getting Escobar and Hernandez for Liriano. Both failed to resign with the trading team. Neither would've resigned with the Twins for the dollars offered by the Twins.

 

 

[old nurse]

I hope you are talking fastball speeds and not pitchers from the mid-1990s.

At least you did not comment I was looking for pitchers that were in their mid 90s. I wonder if Ralph Branca has anything left in that arm?

[nicksaviking]

At least you did not comment I was looking for pitchers that were in their mid 90s. I wonder if Ralph Branca has anything left in that arm?

 

I'd probably still rather have Branca than Frankie Rodrigez or Rich Robertson.

[gil4]

The Real Deal pitched this season in the Mexican League for Yucatan for 3 games with a 58.50 ERA... So... sort of?

 

That's probably not going to get him the invite to spring training on the reunion tour.  I'm pretty sure even Livan Hernandez could keep his ERA under 50 in the Mexican League. (I'm not so sure about Sidney Ponson.)

[Linus]

It all gets back to farm systems.  When you have talent coming through the pipeline you have options and don't get forced into bad contracts or taking flyers on washed up vets.

 

The Orioles signing JJ Hardy to an expensive extension is precisely what the Cards would not do.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Yeah that JJ Hardy deal . . . Do the Orioles not have anyone coming up to play 3B or SS? I would've assumed that Hardy was just keeping the spot warm for Manny Machado to play SS, but I guess Machado's going to be at 3B for the forseeable future.

 

Could be worse - it could've been more than 3 years.

 

Also, I think the Cardinals were both lucky and unlucky that Pujols decided to go to LAA - lucky in that they aren't paying that contract, but unlucky in that even a diminished 2014 Pujols is better than 2014 Matt Adams. I think both sides came out ok on that deal (St. Louis and Pujols, not so much LAA).

 

I don't know that the Twins would be in that much better shape the last few years if Mauer had decided to go to Boston -- it's not like they were going to sign anyone else to a $200MM free agent deal to replace what they would be potentially losing with Mauer gone. The Compensation pick in 2011 draft would have been in the 19-25th overall area, so the Twins could have selected Levi Michael a few slots earlier and/or added someone like Sean Gilmartin or Alex Meyer ... oh.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd probably still rather have Branca than Frankie Rodrigez or Rich Robertson.

Rich Robertson, your 1996 AL co-leader in shutouts? Never!

[Mike Sixel]

What are teams supposed to do with the millions of dollars in revenue, if not sign guys that are doing a good job (like Hardy)? If they have the budget room, why is that wrong/bad/evil?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I actually think 3 years for Hardy is a pretty good move for the Orioles, just agreeing that it's probably not what the Cardinals would do.

 

 

EDITED TO ADD: oops, it's exactly what the Cardinals would do...

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Orioles signing JJ Hardy to an expensive extension is precisely what the Cards would not do.

 

 

Yeah that JJ Hardy deal . . . Do the Orioles not have anyone coming up to play 3B or SS? I would've assumed that Hardy was just keeping the spot warm for Manny Machado to play SS, but I guess Machado's going to be at 3B for the forseeable future.

 

Could be worse - it could've been more than 3 years.

Hold it -- y'all are against the JJ Hardy extension?

 

Dude's last 4 seasons by fWAR: 4.3, 2.7, 3.4, 3.4

 

By bWAR: 4.1, 3.2, 3.9, 3.4

 

It's been largely defense, but they've coaxed some pretty impressive performances out of non-star pitchers the past few years too.  They're a playoff team, they don't have any SS/3B replacements ready, and he signed for only 3/40.  (Bonus points that it took a SS off the market for the division runner-up.)

 

The Twins trade (or basically salary dump) of JJ Hardy to Baltimore is one of the worst baseball moves I have ever witnessed.  Nothing about it -- the reasoning, the money, his replacements, the return -- makes a lick of sense.  And it's a great big bummer to be reminded of it while trying to enjoy some playoff baseball...

[Mike Sixel]

I actually think 3 years for Hardy is a pretty good move for the Orioles, just agreeing that it's probably not what the Cardinals would do.

 

Based on what? They've signed guys to plenty of extensions. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

How many of those extensions were shortstops over 30 (not including Ozzie Smith)?

 

uh... Wait. Jhonny Peralta.

 

Nevermind!

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_I5F4U2tYwmk/TD_DkOOfQFI/AAAAAAAACYA/SnSahR6FnQ8/s400/Emily+LItella.jpg

[Otto von Ballpark]

I actually think 3 years for Hardy is a pretty good move for the Orioles, just agreeing that it's probably not what the Cardinals would do.

Why wouldn't the Cardinals do it?

[Otto von Ballpark]

How many of those extensions were shortstops over 30 (not including Ozzie Smith)?

They just signed Jhonny Peralta for 4/53 entering his age-32 season.

 

Previously they signed Rafael Furcal for his ages 33-34 seasons.

 

At catcher, they long ago guaranteed Yadier Molina $43 million covering his ages 32-34 seasons.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

yes - I am wrong - sorry y'all I was thinking of something else.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

And like I said a few posts back I do believe that three more years for Hardy is a good idea.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Mackey's story is fine. He's doing the exact thing the writers often do at Twins Daily-typing up a short article to get a discussion going. Not every story here is a manuscript length dissertation with sources (thank god for that ). 

 

For example, he points out

"Additionally, Adams, Carpenter, Rosenthal, Garcia and Craig were all drafted in the 8th round or later - rounds where teams are essentially throwing darts, blindfolded. The Cardinals are finding gems in these rounds."

That's more than blind luck. That's not even half luck. The point is, the Twins are throwing darts blindfolded, and the Cardinals are not. The Cardinals apparently know certain traits to look for. These might not even be baseball traits. Or maybe the Cards see something once these guys get to their assignments and they get immediate priority, regardless of where they were drafted. Whatever the Twins have been doing hasn't been working. I think that's Mackey's message/reminder of the day.

[chopper0080]

It all gets back to farm systems.  When you have talent coming through the pipeline you have options and don't get forced into bad contracts or taking flyers on washed up vets.

 

The Orioles signing JJ Hardy to an expensive extension is precisely what the Cards would not do.

 Like the Cardinals re-signing Matt Holliday?

 

The Cardinals do a very good job of keeping a mix of veteran players and young players.  They don't put themselves in positions where their young players come up, and are depended upon to carry the team.  We should take note of that.

[chopper0080]

They have not built a competitive veteran team and then incorporated their farm system.  That is not an accurate depiction of what they have done.

 

Of their five pitchers by IP, none has pitched a single inning at the MLB level for another team.  Wainwright, Lynn, Miller, Wacha, and Martinez. 

 

Of their seven top offensive players by WAR, only 2 (Peralta and Holiday)  have played an inning outside their MLB organization.  The rest, Carpenter, Jay, Molina, Adams, and Wong have only played for them.

 

If the Twins compete in the next 2-3 years, this model is likely to be almost the same as the Cardinals. A majority of home grown talent supplemented with a few signings. 

 

This thread is getting carrier away.

2009 Cardinals

Chris Carpenter

Kyle Lohse

Joel Pinero

Todd Wellmeyer

Adam Wainwright...only one from their farm system

 

Pujols

Molina

Schumaker

Thurston

Ryan

Duncan

Rasmus

Ludwick

(they traded for Matt Holliday)

 

So their pitchiing staff was made up from players from outside the organization, and their hitting was made up of guys from inside.)

 

2010

pitching staff had some changes

Jaime Garcia was brought up

Cards acquired Jake Westbrook, Brad Penny, Jeff Suppan)

Holliday took on full time role

felipe Lopez was brought in

John Jay and David Freese moved into more of a full time role)

 

2011

Kyle McClellan took on a more prominent role

Acquired Edwin Jackson

 

Cards brought in Lance Berkman

Ryan Theriot

added Furcal mid season

 

2012

Lance Lynn takes on a more prominent role in the staff

Lohse & Westbrook still starters from outside the organization

Joe Kelly gets some starts

Added Beltran

so 3 of the top 5 Cardinals in At Bats are from outside of the organization (Holliday, Beltran, Furcal)

 

2013

Cardinals replace Lohse with Shelby Miller

Kelly takes a larger role

 

Matt Carpenter takes a starting role as does Allen Craig

Matt Adams and Pete Kozma get some at bats

 

2014

Justin Masterson & John Lackey brought in from outside

Michael Wacha takes on a larger role, gets hurt, comes back

 

Jhonny Peralta brought in

Kolton Wong takes a larger role

Oscar Tavares gets some at bats

 

So, for the past several years the Cardinals have used free agency to bring in veteran pieces to take on prominent roles for their team.  Prospects have been brought up in supplemental roles initially, but then are rewarded with expanded roles in following seasons.  Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Jon Jay and Kolton Wong have all followed this path.

 

So yeah, if you just want to cherry pick where the Cardinals current roster is at, yes, most players are from their system.  But what you fail to mention is how those players were added in over time, and in smaller roles initially.  The Cards were a veteran team, and have implemented their farm system as the years have progressed. Nice try though.

[old nurse]

That's probably not going to get him the invite to spring training on the reunion tour.  I'm pretty sure even Livan Hernandez could keep his ERA under 50 in the Mexican League. (I'm not so sure about Sidney Ponson.)

Livan Hernandez! I knew there was somebody out there older than Branca stil pitching.

[The Wise One]

So who do you emulate from St Louis? Jockety who kind of presided over the start of the whole thing but has not sustained in Cinci, Luhnow who presided over 3 monsterously great drafts and nothing since, or Mozeliak who couldn't draft very well, but does seem to trade well?

[bird]

Yup.  They also have to do better in the draft at identifying power starting pitchers who won't kill you with their control and they have to do better at identifying free agents who best fit the team, the ballpark and the LEAGUE they play in.

 

All of this is easy to say, and all of this is what Mackey was trying to say (I think). But really, duh.  The Twins first need to identify HOW St. Louis is doing this, or WHY the Twins can't.  I don't know and St. Louis isn't going to spill company secrets, but this front office still can't emulate anything until they have a step-by-step blueprint.  If you weld a Cadillac hood ornament on a Kia, it's still just a Kia.

The Twins need to do a lot of things better, but identifying and drafting power pitchers is no longer one of them. Stewart, Berrios, Burdi, and Thorpe are power pitchers. Willingham fit Target Field, as does Hughes.

 

I know it's popular to think of the Cards as being so incredibly advanced compared to other teams. I know it's popular to think of the Twins as being below average. I remember how reverently people talked about the Rays, and the A's when it seemed like everything was going right for them. And I remember, just a couple months back, still hearing about how poorly run the Royals organization was. Isn't it possible that people are a bit prone to travel to extremes about these things?

[USAFChief]

The Twins need to do a lot of things better, but identifying and drafting power pitchers is no longer one of them. Stewart, Berrios, Burdi, and Thorpe are power pitchers. Willingham fit Target Field, as does Hughes.

 

I know it's popular to think of the Cards as being so incredibly advanced compared to other teams. I know it's popular to think of the Twins as being below average. I remember how reverently people talked about the Rays, and the A's when it seemed like everything was going right for them. And I remember, just a couple months back, still hearing about how poorly run the Royals organization was. Isn't it possible that people are a bit prone to travel to extremes about these things?

All true.

 

It does bother me though, that things like "identify and draft power pitching" seems to come late for the Twins. They do appear--from the comfort of my recliner to be fair-- to be a follower of ideas, rather than a developer of them.

[tobi0040]

2009 Cardinals

Chris Carpenter

Kyle Lohse

Joel Pinero

Todd Wellmeyer

Adam Wainwright...only one from their farm system

 

Pujols

Molina

Schumaker

Thurston

Ryan

Duncan

Rasmus

Ludwick

(they traded for Matt Holliday)

 

So their pitchiing staff was made up from players from outside the organization, and their hitting was made up of guys from inside.)

 

2010

pitching staff had some changes

Jaime Garcia was brought up

Cards acquired Jake Westbrook, Brad Penny, Jeff Suppan)

Holliday took on full time role

felipe Lopez was brought in

John Jay and David Freese moved into more of a full time role)

 

2011

Kyle McClellan took on a more prominent role

Acquired Edwin Jackson

 

Cards brought in Lance Berkman

Ryan Theriot

added Furcal mid season

 

2012

Lance Lynn takes on a more prominent role in the staff

Lohse & Westbrook still starters from outside the organization

Joe Kelly gets some starts

Added Beltran

so 3 of the top 5 Cardinals in At Bats are from outside of the organization (Holliday, Beltran, Furcal)

 

2013

Cardinals replace Lohse with Shelby Miller

Kelly takes a larger role

 

Matt Carpenter takes a starting role as does Allen Craig

Matt Adams and Pete Kozma get some at bats

 

2014

Justin Masterson & John Lackey brought in from outside

Michael Wacha takes on a larger role, gets hurt, comes back

 

Jhonny Peralta brought in

Kolton Wong takes a larger role

Oscar Tavares gets some at bats

 

So, for the past several years the Cardinals have used free agency to bring in veteran pieces to take on prominent roles for their team.  Prospects have been brought up in supplemental roles initially, but then are rewarded with expanded roles in following seasons.  Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Jon Jay and Kolton Wong have all followed this path.

 

So yeah, if you just want to cherry pick where the Cardinals current roster is at, yes, most players are from their system.  But what you fail to mention is how those players were added in over time, and in smaller roles initially.  The Cards were a veteran team, and have implemented their farm system as the years have progressed. Nice try though.

 

Your initial quote made it sound like they built a veteran team from outside the organization, and then supplmented those guys with in-house talent.

 

"So, the best way to emulate the Cardinals is by building a competitive, veteran MLB team, and then incorporating your farm system as players prove they are ready, carving out roles for them, and not depending on them to succeed right away"

 

Over the last four seasons, they have probably had 120-140 guys contribute and you listed about 8-10 guys they brought in.   To me, it seems like they built a team in-house and supplemented those guys with FA acqusitions and trades.

 

The fact that they added in-house talent over time I believe is a function of them being a good team and having more talent, in which case it is hard for a team like the Twins to emulate.  It is tough to say to the Twins, to be a better team, you need to build a better team.  It is kind of like defining a word with the word.  It doesn't really help anyone.

[tobi0040]

The Cards also offered Pujols $210M to resign.

 

The cardinals offered him $210M over ten years. If my memory serves me correctly, they were also offering a potential ownership stake (albeit a small one) and various statues around Busch Stadium.  They were pulling out all of the stops and wanted him back.   They got extremely lucky. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

another series of examples of how the Cardinals have had a long streak of success:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/cardinals-notes-taveras-pujols-aldrete-trades.html

 

even though they missed signing Pujols, the team spent the money offer to him on a combo of more free agents (Beltran, Peralta)

 

Saved some $$ on young guys reaching arb and re-stocked for the near future by trading Freese to the Angels.