Mackey: Twins should emulate the Cardinals

[Seth Stohs]

1500espn's Phil Mackey wrote another article discussing how the Twins need to emulate the St. Louis Cardinals., who are heading to another NLCS this weekend.

 

 

The Cardinals are the San Antonio Spurs of Major League Baseball, and they do it without spending toe-to-toe with baseball's richest franchises. It's not feasible for mid-market franchises like the Cardinals (and Twins) to outspend the multi-billion dollar TV deal franchises in Los Angeles and elsewhere, so they must find different and more creative ways to be better.

 

So true. It's not about dollars spent, it's about drafting well, developing and then supplementing! 

 

What do you think?

[USAFChief]

I think St Louis, while not spending what the Dodgers or Yankees spend, still finds a way to be in the top half of payroll expenditures year after year, usually sneaking into the top 10.

 

So yeah, it's not just about payroll, but it's not like they're doing it on the cheap, either.

 

That's not the only explanation...but ignoring it misses part of the Twins problem, IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

The sky is blue. That's what this is. Of course every team should draft well and supplement. The question is, what do you do when you don't draft well? When do you supplement? Who do you re-sign? Saying they should draft well, well duh. The delta is, the twins failed to execute on this already. .....

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The Twins are emulating the same franchise they've emulated since the early 80's : The Twins.

 

There's a period in which the farm produces talent in bunches - Hrbek, Bruno, Kirby, Viola or Torii, AJ, Mientkiewicz, Radke or Mauer, Morneau, etc etc etc and times when the cupboard dries up. The Twins have never spent much in the offseason, or sought out blockbuster trades...

 

The team is in another classic Twins swoon and assuming the new class is as good as advertised we'll be cheering for a playoff team in 2-3 years. The Twins will have a few years of success and there will be articles about how team X should emulate the Twins' 'patient approach.'

[cmb0252]

Wainwright wasn't drafted by the Cards....he was drafted by the braves and was traded to the Cards in the J.D. Drew trade.

[Linus]

The sky is blue. That's what this is. Of course every team should draft well and supplement. The question is, what do you do when you don't draft well? When do you supplement? Who do you re-sign? Saying they should draft well, well duh. The delta is, the twins failed to execute on this already. .....

Mike, we agree!  I'm actually kind of tired of Mackey's simplistic observations - he's so predictable that he is like Sid except he is 28 or something.  The basis of all success is having a steady stream of talent coming up from the minor league system.  When that doesn't happen (regardless of the reason) you are in trouble because you cannot supplement enough through other avenues if your farm system has dried up - its just not possible.

 

Then, if you throw in a few bad trades and some serious injuries, you have the perfect storm that results in 4 90+ loss seasons.

 

The other thing that drives me nuts about some of his observations: if they knew these later round draft picks were going to be major league studs they would have drafted them in the early rounds.  Drafting in the later rounds is 20% skill and 80% luck; be happy when it happens but i wouldn't get too carried away that you have some divine ability that others don't have.

[drjim]

Mike, we agree! I'm actually kind of tired of Mackey's simplistic observations - he's so predictable that he is like Sid except he is 28 or something. The basis of all success is having a steady stream of talent coming up from the minor league system. When that doesn't happen (regardless of the reason) you are in trouble because you cannot supplement enough through other avenues if your farm system has dried up - its just not possible.

 

Then, if you throw in a few bad trades and some serious injuries, you have the perfect storm that results in 4 90+ loss seasons.

 

The other thing that drives me nuts about some of his observations: if they knew these later round draft picks were going to be major league studs they would have drafted them in the early rounds. Drafting in the later rounds is 20% skill and 80% luck; be happy when it happens but i wouldn't get too carried away that you have some divine ability that others don't have.

I saw this article and hesitated to click on it and it was worse than I could have expected.

 

A team is good the Twins aren't, here are some base level stats to show that. Now the Twins should be more like that successful team. Who knew?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 The question is, what do you do when you don't draft well?  .....

 

You lose.  Plain and simple.  Supplementing a losing team only extends that timeframe as you cannot typically fill a roster from FA. 

[bird]

The Twins emulate the Cards in one way: they both view the draft as a means to save money, as opposed to simply a means to spend it. The Cards Director of Scouting, who has been in place for a couple of years now, puts in in plain terms in the article. Drafting is cheaper than FA acquisitions.

 

The Twins should attempt to emulate the Cards, among other teams, when it comes to getting more value for assets they choose to let go. I'm theorizing that the teams like the Cards take more preemptive steps to trade away surplus at points in time where they still have leverage. I think about the fact that 42 former Twins played MLB baseball this year. One would think we'd have more to show on our roster or in the minors for those 42 players.

 

The Cards have had an incredible run recently of late-round picks coming up big. Maybe they have a secret sauce, but I'm not completely convinced about that. Like most teams, including the Twins, they have a specific "style", or process, that they use to select players. I'm reminded of my experiences in the asset management business, where a certain manager style does well in one cycle and poorly in another. While I'd hardly call the Card's late-round success a product of luck, I'd suggest they may not be able to sustain their recent run of success. It's hard to outsmart and outwork the competition, and the playing field has been rather dramatically leveled with the new CBA.

[tobi0040]

I saw this article and hesitated to click on it and it was worse than I could have expected.

 

A team is good the Twins aren't, here are some base level stats to show that. Now the Twins should be more like that successful team. Who knew?

 

Na ah, the Cards try and draft good players.  The Twins don't.

 

On a serious note.  Next year we may have three first round picks in our rotation (Hughes, Gibson, and Meyer).  Really good deals Nolasco and May in the 4th rounds.

 

Buxton in the first round, Rosario in the 4th.  Hicks in the first round. Sano a top international guy.

 

Wow, we emulated the Cardinals. We had a mix of guys from all over.

[clutterheart]

You lose.  Plain and simple.  Supplementing a losing team only extends that timeframe as you cannot typically fill a roster from FA. 

 

Disagree.

Twins have not drafted impact arms or impact bats.  The new stadium gives them the revenue to go out and get guys on the FA market to supplement the role players they drafted.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Disagree.

Twins have not drafted impact arms or impact bats.  The new stadium gives them the revenue to go out and get guys on the FA market to supplement the role players they drafted.

 

I understand that.  The problem is that they had holes all over and even with the added revenue, they didn't have enough cash to fill them.  Add to it that these are multi-year deals that you don't just get to dump if they fail, the need for two willing parties, dealing with shortages/surplusses at positions of need, and the fact that many FA aquisitions are just as bad if not worse than the guys they are replacing.  Given this, you have a recipie that might turn into something nice, but it's far more likely to turn into extended mediocrity.  There are examples of this all over MLB.  It's one thing to go out and spend money on that one  or two needed pieces.  It's a whole different thing to try to fill an entire roster that way.  It doesn't work.  

[Thrylos]

The sky is blue. That's what this is. Of course every team should draft well and supplement. The question is, what do you do when you don't draft well? When do you supplement? Who do you re-sign? Saying they should draft well, well duh. The delta is, the twins failed to execute on this already. .....

 

When you do not draft well, you go after other teams' young talent by trading veterans on top of their value before they enter their decline phases, like Willingham 3 off-seasons ago, Perkins this off-season etc.   Also, do not re-sign players through their decline years.  The Cardinals have done plenty of both trading and not re-signing aging veterans.

[chopper0080]

The Cardinals are a well run franchise, and we are not.  It pretty much comes down to that.  They don't make excuses, and the Twins do.  They don't resist and resent change, and the Twins do.  They are versatile in their ways of acquiring talent, and the Twins aren't.  The Cardinals (Pujols) aren't affected by fan pressure, and the Twins are (Mauer).

 

I agree, we should emulate the Cardinals.  We should spend for quality players, draft well, trade for quality prospects, and trade prospects for quality players.

[Thrylos]

 The Cardinals (Pujols) aren't affected by fan pressure, and the Twins are (Mauer).

 

Apples and Pineapples.  Totally different circumstances:

 

The Twins had the new ballpark going on, Mauer was 27 when he was extended and he is from the Twin Cities.

The Cardinals had no community $ investment, Pujols was 31 when he left for the Angels and he is from the Dominican.

 

I do not defend the Twins' front office by any means, but they absolutely had to extend Mauer.  No other options.

[USAFChief]

The Cards also offered Pujols $210M to resign.

[bird]

Disagree.

Twins have not drafted impact arms or impact bats.  The new stadium gives them the revenue to go out and get guys on the FA market to supplement the role players they drafted.

Disagree.

 

Twins have drafted (or signed internationally) impact arms (Stewart, Berrios, Meyer via Span, May via Revere) and impact bats, when the draft order was in their favor especially. 

 

But let's assume the new stadium generates $250M annually. Can you do an exercise, looking back at which FA's were on the market, and build me a WS team with a budget of $125M annually?

 

There's really only one plausible way to pull yourself out of a down cycle, and that's via the draft and international markets as your primary pipelines, supplementing via FA and scrap heap, and trading from what meager surplus you have, as you go along. "There are no shortcuts".

[Thrylos]

Disagree.

 

Twins have drafted (or signed internationally) impact arms (Stewart, Berrios, Meyer via Span, May via Revere) and impact bats, when the draft order was in their favor especially. 

 

But let's assume the new stadium generates $250M annually. Can you do an exercise, looking back at which FA's were on the market, and build me a WS team with a budget of $125M annually?

 

There's really only one plausible way to pull yourself out of a down cycle, and that's via the draft and international markets as your primary pipelines, supplementing via FA and scrap heap, and trading from what meager surplus you have, as you go along. "There are no shortcuts".

 

I agree, in principle, but you also have to sell high on your aging veterans (which is something that the Twins do not do.)

 

As far as a WS team with $125M goes (and hindsight is 20/20), how about:

 

SP Hughes

SP Masahiro Tanaka

SP Edinson Volquez

SP Scott Kazmir

SP Gibson

RP Perkins

RP Pat Neshek

RP  Duensing

RP Joba Chamberlain

RP Swarzak

RP May

LHRP JP Howell

 

C - Pinto

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier

SS - Escobar

3B - Plouffe

LF - David DeJesus/Rajai Davis

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

RF Oswaldo Arcia

DH Nelson Cruz

B-C Suzuki

B-OF David DeJesus/Rajai Davis

B-UT D. Santana

B-UT Mark Reynolds

 

And I suspect that this would had not cost the full $125M, if you subtract the salaries of the unmentioned (Willingham, Correia, etc.)

 

 

 

[chopper0080]

The Cards also offered Pujols $210M to resign.

 

and I offered $209mil...Yes, they made an offer which was lower than other offers that were on the table.  The Twins could have done the same, but instead they offered a stupid contract and are paying for it.  But let's not have that discussion here.

 

In the end, the Cardinals make moves that pan out, and the Twins currently do not.  A perfect example of the current differences between the organizations is the Cardinals handling of prospects vs the Twins.

[chopper0080]

Apples and Pineapples.  Totally different circumstances:

 

The Twins had the new ballpark going on, Mauer was 27 when he was extended and he is from the Twin Cities.

The Cardinals had no community $ investment, Pujols was 31 when he left for the Angels and he is from the Dominican.

 

I do not defend the Twins' front office by any means, but they absolutely had to extend Mauer.  No other options.

 

We will disagree on this.

[The Wise One]

I agree, in principle, but you also have to sell high on your aging veterans (which is something that the Twins do not do.)

 

As far as a WS team with $125M goes (and hindsight is 20/20), how about:

 

SP Hughes

SP Masahiro Tanaka

SP Edinson Volquez

SP Scott Kazmir

SP Gibson

RP Perkins

RP Pat Neshek

RP  Duensing

RP Joba Chamberlain

RP Swarzak

RP May

LHRP JP Howell

 

C - Pinto

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier

SS - Escobar

3B - Plouffe

LF - David DeJesus/Rajai Davis

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

RF Oswaldo Arcia

DH Nelson Cruz

B-C Suzuki

B-OF David DeJesus/Rajai Davis

B-UT D. Santana

B-UT Mark Reynolds

 

And I suspect that this would had not cost the full $125M, if you subtract the salaries of the unmentioned (Willingham, Correia, etc.)

I think the salary would be cloer to 130 million. As you used hindsight, I can use that Tanaka got injured, Volquez pitched terribly in the playoffs, and historically Kazmir pitched poorly in the playoff to say if they were not division champs, likely they would not have made it out of the first round.

[Monkeypaws]

Somehow the Cards keep the mill churning, whereas the Twins have hit a dry spell or two. Twins and Cards both play in easy divisions, so they must be doing something better. 

 

Atlanta also has a tremendous record in this area, although their post-season success amounted to a single championship - booya tommychppers!

[bird]

I agree, in principle, but you also have to sell high on your aging veterans (which is something that the Twins do not do.)

 

As far as a WS team with $125M goes (and hindsight is 20/20), how about:

 

SP Hughes

SP Masahiro Tanaka

SP Edinson Volquez

SP Scott Kazmir

SP Gibson

RP Perkins

RP Pat Neshek

RP  Duensing

RP Joba Chamberlain

RP Swarzak

RP May

LHRP JP Howell

 

C - Pinto

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier

SS - Escobar

3B - Plouffe

LF - David DeJesus/Rajai Davis

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

RF Oswaldo Arcia

DH Nelson Cruz

B-C Suzuki

B-OF David DeJesus/Rajai Davis

B-UT D. Santana

B-UT Mark Reynolds

 

And I suspect that this would had not cost the full $125M, if you subtract the salaries of the unmentioned (Willingham, Correia, etc.)

We very much agree that the Twins have not traded away assets with good results over the years. Revere and Span verdicts are not in, don't you agree?

 

As for your noble attempt to create a hypothetical hindsight WS team? Boy, I'd have to look at the windows of availability, the injury patterns, contract info, etc., but my instincts tell me this still would not have done the trick, even if by some miracle all those players agreed to sign with the Twins. But maybe, and a very good try, thrylos.

 

But I think the argument still holds that the only truly plausible method for extracting a team from the depths like what the Twins were in is by taking some lumps, starting the rebuild via draft and Int'l and then hoarding those prospects, filling holes opportunistically with other team's rejects and stopgap FA types, and then, at the end, when some surplus is finally in place, acquiring a few final pieces via FA and trades. I know perhaps most here think the Twins have not had a strategy. I think they are sticking with the one they've had all along. Outside of a few understandable stumbles along the way, they're making progress. We're about to see if Ryan will take aggressive steps here at the tail end of the rebuild.

[Rosterman]

Does that mean we sign Pat Neshek for 2015! Yes!

 

[drjim]

I do think one obvious point missing in this article and discussion is that the Cardinals are clearly the number one franchise in all of baseball in the last 15 years. Aside from the 3-4 huge market teams every other franchise would want to be like the Cardinals and have the same success. And every other team would fall short of the Cardinals when comparing drafts and transactions.

 

They are the model. Until, of course, they no longer are.

[Rosterman]

The Twins emulate the Cards in one way: they both view the draft as a means to save money, as opposed to simply a means to spend it. The Cards Director of Scouting, who has been in place for a couple of years now, puts in in plain terms in the article. Drafting is cheaper than FA acquisitions.

 

The Twins should attempt to emulate the Cards, among other teams, when it comes to getting more value for assets they choose to let go. I'm theorizing that the teams like the Cards take more preemptive steps to trade away surplus at points in time where they still have leverage. I think about the fact that 42 former Twins played MLB baseball this year. One would think we'd have more to show on our roster or in the minors for those 42 players.

 

The Cards have had an incredible run recently of late-round picks coming up big. Maybe they have a secret sauce, but I'm not completely convinced about that. Like most teams, including the Twins, they have a specific "style", or process, that they use to select players. I'm reminded of my experiences in the asset management business, where a certain manager style does well in one cycle and poorly in another. While I'd hardly call the Card's late-round success a product of luck, I'd suggest they may not be able to sustain their recent run of success. It's hard to outsmart and outwork the competition, and the playing field has been rather dramatically leveled with the new CBA.

Let's see. What did the Twins get for: Ben Revere, Jeff Manship, Jason Marquis, Clete Thomas, Kevin Slowey, Garrett Jones, Joe Benson, Wilson Ramos, Denard Span, Rene Rivera, Drew Butera, Kevin Correia, Anthony Slama, Pat Neshek, LaTroy Hawkins, Justin Morneau, Mike Cuddyer, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Doumit, Josh Willingham, Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse, Carlos Gomez, Pedro Hernandez, Vance Worley, RA Dickey, Liam Hendriks, Danny Valencia, Luis Ayala, Joe Beimel, Nick Punto, Sam Fuld, Joe Nathan, Torii Hunter, Alex Presley, Darrin Mastronainni, Sam Deduno, David Ortiz, Craig Breslow, AJ Pierzynski, Grant Balfour, Delmon Young, JJ Hardy

 

Not to mention: Yangervis Solarte, Angel Morales, Brock Peterson, Tyler Robertson, Matt Tolbert, Trent Oeltjen, Brandan Harris, David Bromberg, Steve Tolleson, Bobby Korecky, Kenny Wilson, Sergio Santos, Phil Humber, Tyler Ladendorf, P.J. Walters, Jon Rauch, Josh Roeincke, Matt Capps, Matt Carson, Steve Pearce, Evan Meek, Alexi Casilla, Juan Morillo, Andre Torres, Luis Perdono, Randy Ruiz, Andrew Albers, Shairon Mathis, Luke Hughes, Justin Huber, J.D. Durbin, Gil Valesquez, Jose Lugo, Brad Thomas amongst others still paying pro ball.

 

 

And you always take lumps. Your free agents don't pan out, or they fizzle. Maybe your high draft picks stink and the middle or late guys actually make it and contribute. You have to be willing to take chances, and you do tend to have the money to do so. 

[bird]

Let's see. What did the Twins get for: Ben Revere, Jeff Manship, Jason Marquis, Clete Thomas, Kevin Slowey, Garrett Jones, Joe Benson, Wilson Ramos, Denard Span, Rene Rivera, Drew Butera, Kevin Correia, Anthony Slama, Pat Neshek, LaTroy Hawkins, Justin Morneau, Mike Cuddyer, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Doumit, Josh Willingham, Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse, Carlos Gomez, Pedro Hernandez, Vance Worley, RA Dickey, Liam Hendriks, Danny Valencia, Luis Ayala, Joe Beimel, Nick Punto, Sam Fuld, Joe Nathan, Torii Hunter, Alex Presley, Darrin Mastronainni, Sam Deduno, David Ortiz, Craig Breslow, AJ Pierzynski, Grant Balfour, Delmon Young, JJ Hardy

 

Not to mention: Yangervis Solarte, Angel Morales, Brock Peterson, Tyler Robertson, Matt Tolbert, Trent Oeltjen, Brandan Harris, David Bromberg, Steve Tolleson, Bobby Korecky, Kenny Wilson, Sergio Santos, Phil Humber, Tyler Ladendorf, P.J. Walters, Jon Rauch, Josh Roeincke, Matt Capps, Matt Carson, Steve Pearce, Evan Meek, Alexi Casilla, Juan Morillo, Andre Torres, Luis Perdono, Randy Ruiz, Andrew Albers, Shairon Mathis, Luke Hughes, Justin Huber, J.D. Durbin, Gil Valesquez, Jose Lugo, Brad Thomas amongst others still paying pro ball.

 

 

And you always take lumps. Your free agents don't pan out, or they fizzle. Maybe your high draft picks stink and the middle or late guys actually make it and contribute. You have to be willing to take chances, and you do tend to have the money to do so. 

Not sure if you meant to affirm or refute a point here, but this is a very extensive list of ex-Twins, most apparently not as forgettable as I thought.

[Linus]

Let's see. What did the Twins get for: Ben Revere, Jeff Manship, Jason Marquis, Clete Thomas, Kevin Slowey, Garrett Jones, Joe Benson, Wilson Ramos, Denard Span, Rene Rivera, Drew Butera, Kevin Correia, Anthony Slama, Pat Neshek, LaTroy Hawkins, Justin Morneau, Mike Cuddyer, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Doumit, Josh Willingham, Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse, Carlos Gomez, Pedro Hernandez, Vance Worley, RA Dickey, Liam Hendriks, Danny Valencia, Luis Ayala, Joe Beimel, Nick Punto, Sam Fuld, Joe Nathan, Torii Hunter, Alex Presley, Darrin Mastronainni, Sam Deduno, David Ortiz, Craig Breslow, AJ Pierzynski, Grant Balfour, Delmon Young, JJ Hardy

 

Not to mention: Yangervis Solarte, Angel Morales, Brock Peterson, Tyler Robertson, Matt Tolbert, Trent Oeltjen, Brandan Harris, David Bromberg, Steve Tolleson, Bobby Korecky, Kenny Wilson, Sergio Santos, Phil Humber, Tyler Ladendorf, P.J. Walters, Jon Rauch, Josh Roeincke, Matt Capps, Matt Carson, Steve Pearce, Evan Meek, Alexi Casilla, Juan Morillo, Andre Torres, Luis Perdono, Randy Ruiz, Andrew Albers, Shairon Mathis, Luke Hughes, Justin Huber, J.D. Durbin, Gil Valesquez, Jose Lugo, Brad Thomas amongst others still paying pro ball.

 

 

And you always take lumps. Your free agents don't pan out, or they fizzle. Maybe your high draft picks stink and the middle or late guys actually make it and contribute. You have to be willing to take chances, and you do tend to have the money to do so. 

Wow.  That is all I can say to this one.  Wow.

[Kwak]

We will disagree on this.

Disagree if you choose, but  one of the reasons cited for the public subsidy was to "... retain its players"--they might just as well have said "Joe Mauer".  People can (and do) discuss the relative merits of Mauer, but the message was clear "...[we] want Mauer!"  Please consider that people pay premium and even super premium prices for "star" talent--entertainment, lawyers, doctors, financial advisors, basically all walks of life.  There is ample precedent for Twins fans to demand to see "their favorite player"--and pay for the priviledge to do so.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

If only we still had Matt Tolbert!

 

 

I am wondering what the Twins got for Correia - was it just cash considerations or are they waiting to name the player to be named later?

 

Revere --> May and Worley

Ramos --> Matt Capps

Span --> Alex Meyer

Butera --> Miguel Sulbaran --> Eduardo Nuñez

Correia --> ???

Morneau --> Alex Presley and Duke Welker --> Kris Johnson

Liriano --> Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez

Doumit --> Sean Gilmartin

Willingham --> Jason Adam

Garza and Bartlett--> Delmon Young and Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie --> (Harris and Hardy) Hoey and Jacobson and (Delmon) Cole Nelson and Lester Oliveros

Lohse --> Zach Ward

Gomez --> JJ Hardy

Valencia --> Jeremias Pineda

Fuld --> Tommy Milone!

AJ --> Nathan, Liriano, BOOF

 

that was fun! We can do that with lots of teams, though.

 

I think it is ok to lose players via free agency or waivers - it happens to every team. Sometimes the Twins get burned, sometimes they burn the other team. Think the White Sox (or the Giants) wish they still had Liriano? Think the Pirates wish they still had Morneau? Or the Rays, they probably could have still used Garza. I bet the Mets want Carlos Gomez...  

 

Point is, the Twins will lose players every few years, the key is what they do to re-stock the shelves.