Fangraphs discussion of Twins' prospects up

[chopper0080]

So, let me get this right...are people really saying that making the trade is what is important, regardless of the outcome?  That is a pretty sad state of expectations IMO.

 

Here is my take on it.  Trading a MLB proven outfielder for a starting pitching prospect is a good move.  Trading that outfielder for a prospect who ends up being a relief pitcher is a bad move.  If your GM isn't making moves to fill holes on the roster by dealing from positions of strength, that is a GM problem.  I believe most would agree that Ryan made a good move trading a MLB CF for a SP prospect.  However, if your scouting dept can't identify prospects who can stick as SPs, then you have a scouting problem.  This isn't the draft.  You have data vs potential ML talent to look at and evaluate.  Meyer failing to develop into a SP because he has injury issues is one thing...Meyer failing because he has control issues which you knew about when you were scouting him, is a scouting or coaching issue.  Meyer failing because he has control issues and also only has two pitches, all of which you knew about is a scouting issue.

 

Results matter.

[DJL44]

I hadn't seen the comp of Jameson Taillon for Kohl Stewart before. Maybe I wasn't reading the right reports.

[DJL44]

Trading that outfielder for a prospect who ends up being a relief pitcher is a bad move.

 

There is a lot of variation in future performance. A GM is going to have to make a lot of "bad bets" but really only needs to win more than half of them to justify making more bets. If you are too loss-averse and never want to lose a bet then in the long run you squander opportunity.

[chopper0080]

There is a lot of variation in future performance. A GM is going to have to make a lot of "bad bets" but really only needs to win more than half of them to justify making more bets. If you are too loss-averse and never want to lose a bet then in the long run you squander opportunity.

 

and that would be fair if Meyer was a projected #2 who turns out to be a #4.  But you are trading a proven MLB CF BY CHOICE to improve your SP depth.  This wasn't an expiring contract issue where the team was handcuffed and took what they could get.  This was an attempt to fill a very specific need by identifying potential top of the rotation players, and trading a poven commodity for one.  The Twins could have kept Span, and just traded Revere for May.

 

Mistaking a RP for a #2 SP is a HUGE gap to miss by.  Should be a firable offense but the director would have double checked it so it becomes a dept issue.

[SwainZag]

and that would be fair if Meyer was a projected #2 who turns out to be a #4.  But you are trading a proven MLB CF BY CHOICE to improve your SP depth.  This wasn't an expiring contract issue where the team was handcuffed and took what they could get.  This was an attempt to fill a very specific need by identifying potential top of the rotation players, and trading a poven commodity for one.  The Twins could have kept Span, and just traded Revere for May.

 

Mistaking a RP for a #2 SP is a HUGE gap to miss by.  Should be a firable offense but the director would have double checked it so it becomes a dept issue.

 

I don't think we will know what comes of this trade for a few years.  It could go in so many directions.  Meyer could continue to improve and become a legitimate #2 starter.  He could continue with the control issues and hover around a 3-4 starter for years.  They could move him to the pen and he could be anything from a dominant relief pitcher for years to come to moving between AAA and MLB for the next 4 years before being released.

 

They knew what they had in Span.  A 3.5-4 WAR CF, who was coming off his best overall season as a pro, about to be 29 years old with 2 more years of relative cheap control before a $9M option and ultimately free agency.  A solid starter who isn't All-Star material.  They traded him for a former 1st round pick with high upside, who coincidentally enough just had his best season in the minors.  They knew they needed pitching in the minor leagues, a place they had been very weak in.

 

I believe it was you in the other thread who was bashing the front office for not trading guys at their peak value and letting them leave for nothing.  The time they traded Span was arguably his peak value.  You really think it's a fireable offense when it turns out a prospect you traded for doesn't pan out to what you think he might be 4-5 seasons later?  

[DJL44]

Mistaking a RP for a #2 SP is a HUGE gap to miss by.  Should be a firable offense but the director would have double checked it so it becomes a dept issue.

 

Look up loss aversion

[chopper0080]

I don't think we will know what comes of this trade for a few years.  It could go in so many directions.  Meyer could continue to improve and become a legitimate #2 starter.  He could continue with the control issues and hover around a 3-4 starter for years.  They could move him to the pen and he could be anything from a dominant relief pitcher for years to come to moving between AAA and MLB for the next 4 years before being released.

 

They knew what they had in Span.  A 3.5-4 WAR CF, who was coming off his best overall season as a pro, about to be 29 years old with 2 more years of relative cheap control before a $9M option and ultimately free agency.  A solid starter who isn't All-Star material.  They traded him for a former 1st round pick with high upside, who coincidentally enough just had his best season in the minors.  They knew they needed pitching in the minor leagues, a place they had been very weak in.

 

I believe it was you in the other thread who was bashing the front office for not trading guys at their peak value and letting them leave for nothing.  The time they traded Span was arguably his peak value.  You really think it's a fireable offense when it turns out a prospect you traded for doesn't pan out to what you think he might be 4-5 seasons later?  

I said I liked the move, reread my post.  I also said that results in trades matter.  Trading Span for top of the rotation SP prospect was the right move.  The Twins identified Meyer as that type of player.  If he doesn't turn into a SP at all, then it is a problem.  Either a scouting issue or a coaching issue depending on why he fails to be the player they traded for him to be.

[chopper0080]

Look up loss aversion

Look up awful scouting.

 

Folks act like like their isn't a group of professional people who are paid to scout and identify talent for the Twins.  Mistaking a #5 SP for a #2 SP is acceptable and understandable.  When your scouting department can't identify the differences between SP and RP at the AA level, that is being bad at your job.

 

Your investor losing money investing in Apple is understandable.  Your investor losing the same amount of money investing in penny stocks is not.  It is him being bad at his job.

[biggentleben]

Anyone who assumes they know anything about a pitching prospect has simply not followed pitching prospects very long or very deep.  Predicting a top 5 pick is as tedious as predicting a 12th rounder. It's absolutely amazing how random baseball is.  One of the best arms I've ever seen going into a draft was Luke Hochevar.  He blew threw the minors in 2006 and if you adjust for league, his 2007 numbers in the minors were quite solid as well, but he just wasn't successful as a starter in the major leagues.  That said, he's made a very successful conversion to the bullpen, assuming a successful return from TJS.  Bryan Bullington was another one that watching at the time would have assumed he'd be at the very least a solid mid-rotation starter, but he was picked #1 in a draft that had a first round of guys like Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Scott Kazmir, and to a lesser degree, Jeremy Guthrie and Jeff Francis.  Yet Greinke was the highest-drafted of that group as the 5th pitcher picked in that draft, 2 of which never even made the majors. I can't speak on Chris Gruler, who was injured and never made it back, but Clint Everts, picked right ahead of Greinke, was a Texas fireballer that was rumored to be in the mix for #1 due to his high upside arm, yet he's now a reliever in the minors who's never cracked a major league roster.

 

This postseason is showing the value of high-end relievers at the back of the bullpen in the modern game, and it is possible that Meyer may have more value as a top-shelf reliever than he would as a #5 starter.  That would not be a failure whatsoever in the grand scheme of baseball, and certainly not a failure in the scheme of pitching prospects.

[chopper0080]

Anyone who assumes they know anything about a pitching prospect has simply not followed pitching prospects very long or very deep.  Predicting a top 5 pick is as tedious as predicting a 12th rounder. It's absolutely amazing how random baseball is.  One of the best arms I've ever seen going into a draft was Luke Hochevar.  He blew threw the minors in 2006 and if you adjust for league, his 2007 numbers in the minors were quite solid as well, but he just wasn't successful as a starter in the major leagues.  That said, he's made a very successful conversion to the bullpen, assuming a successful return from TJS.  Bryan Bullington was another one that watching at the time would have assumed he'd be at the very least a solid mid-rotation starter, but he was picked #1 in a draft that had a first round of guys like Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Scott Kazmir, and to a lesser degree, Jeremy Guthrie and Jeff Francis.  Yet Greinke was the highest-drafted of that group as the 5th pitcher picked in that draft, 2 of which never even made the majors. I can't speak on Chris Gruler, who was injured and never made it back, but Clint Everts, picked right ahead of Greinke, was a Texas fireballer that was rumored to be in the mix for #1 due to his high upside arm, yet he's now a reliever in the minors who's never cracked a major league roster.

 

This postseason is showing the value of high-end relievers at the back of the bullpen in the modern game, and it is possible that Meyer may have more value as a top-shelf reliever than he would as a #5 starter.  That would not be a failure whatsoever in the grand scheme of baseball, and certainly not a failure in the scheme of pitching prospects.

 

So, what is your point?  Meyer wasn't a draft pick at the time.  I believe he was already in AA.  If you can't figure out close to what a player is going to be at that point, you have some issues.  Again, if you thought he was a #2 SP and he turned out to be a #5 SP, it happens.  But if you are mistaking a guy in AA for a #2 SP when he ends up being a RP...you need to go.

[drjim]

So, what is your point? Meyer wasn't a draft pick at the time. I believe he was already in AA. If you can't figure out close to what a player is going to be at that point, you have some issues. Again, if you thought he was a #2 SP and he turned out to be a #5 SP, it happens. But if you are mistaking a guy in AA for a #2 SP when he ends up being a RP...you need to go.

Not a huge difference but he was in Hi A, one full year in the minors when he was acquired.

 

He's not a reliever yet. And tall pitchers generally take longer and are higher risk.

 

I don't think anyone guaranteed he would be a #2 when acquired, just that he had a legit shot at it and that pitchers with that upside are tough to acquire. If he was a surefire no doubt #2 the Nat's wouldn't have traded him for only Span.

[biggentleben]

Not a huge difference but he was in Hi A, one full year in the minors when he was acquired.

 

He's not a reliever yet. And tall pitchers generally take longer and are higher risk.

 

I don't think anyone guaranteed he would be a #2 when acquired, just that he had a legit shot at it and that pitchers with that upside are tough to acquire. If he was a surefire no doubt #2 the Nat's wouldn't have traded him for only Span.

 

Exactly.  Plus, I'd say if he's a shut down 8th inning or closer guy, that can easily have more value than a #5, so if he fell from #2 to reliever, that could be more valuable than moving from #2 to #5.

 

At the time he was acquired, his motion, arm movement, and pitch repertoire were strong indicators that he would be as likely to be a reliever as a #2.  He wasn't anywhere on the spectrum to one or another at that point.  Heck, Kyle Gibson has roughly a full season of major league pitching at this time, and there's a plethora of directions he could go from here.  Phil Hughes before 2014 was seen as a #4 at best.  Players are not on a consistent line throughout their career, and pitchers are much, much more volatile.

[biggentleben]

So, what is your point?  Meyer wasn't a draft pick at the time.  I believe he was already in AA.  If you can't figure out close to what a player is going to be at that point, you have some issues.  Again, if you thought he was a #2 SP and he turned out to be a #5 SP, it happens.  But if you are mistaking a guy in AA for a #2 SP when he ends up being a RP...you need to go.

 

He was a year removed from being drafted, having only thrown pitches as a professional in 2012 to that point.  I will tell you, however, that no pitcher at A+, AA, or even AAA ball is a current #2, and anyone who tells you they are has never been part of a major league organization.  A player always has a ceiling to achieve and a floor.  Meyer's upside was a #2/#3 starter or closer/backend reliever, not one or the other.  His floor was never making the majors at all at the time of his acquisition.  Once again, one of the deals the Twins offered was Span for the Braves' J.R. Graham, a pitcher considered on par with Meyer by prospect rankers and scouts at the time.  Graham hasn't put together a full season since 2012 (something that was a worry with Meyer as well), and Meyer has turned himself into a top-end pitching prospect in baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

Meyers upside is now down to a three? I don't think anyone typed that when the deal was made.

[biggentleben]

Meyers upside is now down to a three? I don't think anyone typed that when the deal was made.

 

That was absolutely his upside at the time of the trade.  He's bumped off the #3 label as he's had high-end performance.  Graham and Meyer both had high-end stuff that at the time wasn't generating the type of strikeouts you would assume in A+ ball (Graham actually had a better K rate at AA than A+), so they were tagged as the type of guys whose stuff could be so heavy that they don't put up huge K numbers while racking up a bunch of innings behind ground balls or they could take the next step and strike out more batters.  Graham has been hurt and fell to the ~7 k/9 range while Meyer moved from that same 7 K/9 range to a 10+ k/9 guy, so his starter upside is no question a 2 at this point, but at the trade, he was absolutely considered a guy who could develop in multiple ways.

[Thrylos]

Couple of generic pet peeves here:

 

1. Referring to authors as the medium they published.  That would be "Fangraphs says", as if any thread here would be "Twins Daily says".  The person who wrote this is Kiley McDaniel

 

2. How many times has Ms (?) Kiley McDaniel have watched any of the people mentioned in that post play?  Or followed their careers.

 

Got to take things with a huge grain of salt there...

[drjim]

Couple of generic pet peeves here:

 

1. Referring to authors as the medium they published.  That would be "Fangraphs says", as if any thread here would be "Twins Daily says".  The person who wrote this is Kiley McDaniel

 

2. How many times has Ms (?) Kiley McDaniel have watched any of the people mentioned in that post play?  Or followed their careers.

 

Got to take things with a huge grain of salt there...

 

Kiley is a man, used to work in a front office, does a podcast called Marginal Prospects. He watches top prospects a handful of times, though he focuses more on amateur players and the draft. Like most prospect writers he is probably more an aggregator of multiple scouting sources for his final writings.

 

What he wrote on Meyer is probably the scouting consensus at the moment.

[ashbury]

Ms (?) Kiley McDaniel

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/6Hs6-UI6bK4/0.jpg

[USAFChief]

That was absolutely his upside at the time of the trade.  He's bumped off the #3 label as he's had high-end performance.  Graham and Meyer both had high-end stuff that at the time wasn't generating the type of strikeouts you would assume in A+ ball (Graham actually had a better K rate at AA than A+), so they were tagged as the type of guys whose stuff could be so heavy that they don't put up huge K numbers while racking up a bunch of innings behind ground balls or they could take the next step and strike out more batters.  Graham has been hurt and fell to the ~7 k/9 range while Meyer moved from that same 7 K/9 range to a 10+ k/9 guy, so his starter upside is no question a 2 at this point, but at the trade, he was absolutely considered a guy who could develop in multiple ways.

I don't think anyone viewed Meyer's upside as a nr 3 starter at the time of the trade. He was ranked as the #50 prospect by MLB, #3 in the Twins system, and had the kind of stuff to be an ace. That was viewed as his upside.

[chopper0080]

I don't think anyone viewed Meyer's upside as a nr 3 starter at the time of the trade. He was ranked as the #50 prospect by MLB, #3 in the Twins system, and had the kind of stuff to be an ace. That was viewed as his upside.

This was I had read, and thought as well.  It may be different, but I have never read any publication or article by the Twins to make me believe they thought they were trading for a #3 SP at best at that time.  If the Twins thought they were trading for an elite RP who had the potential to be a SP, then was a bad trade.  Why trade a valuable asset like Span for that type of player when you don't even have to?

[diehardtwinsfan]

yes, and I'd argue that ace is still his upside.  #2 is probably more realistic.  I'd simply say this is one guy's opinion on Meyer.  If people thought he would be a top shelf reliever, I highly doubt he'd still be in the top of half of the top 50.  I get the climbing walk rate, and the Twins are going to have to focus on that with him in 2015, but that's all a part of the development thing.  I think long term, Meyer will be fine.  He was quite good even with the high walks in AAA last season, and I think if he can do  what May did to that rate, he's going to be up very quick.

[Turd Furgeson]

So, let me get this right...are people really saying that making the trade is what is important, regardless of the outcome?  That is a pretty sad state of expectations IMO.

 

Here is my take on it.  Trading a MLB proven outfielder for a starting pitching prospect is a good move.  Trading that outfielder for a prospect who ends up being a relief pitcher is a bad move.  If your GM isn't making moves to fill holes on the roster by dealing from positions of strength, that is a GM problem.  I believe most would agree that Ryan made a good move trading a MLB CF for a SP prospect.  However, if your scouting dept can't identify prospects who can stick as SPs, then you have a scouting problem.  This isn't the draft.  You have data vs potential ML talent to look at and evaluate.  Meyer failing to develop into a SP because he has injury issues is one thing...Meyer failing because he has control issues which you knew about when you were scouting him, is a scouting or coaching issue.  Meyer failing because he has control issues and also only has two pitches, all of which you knew about is a scouting issue.

 

Results matter.

 

As Kab21 said, results matter when you look at the success of the farm system as a whole. If you're focusing on one or two individual prospects, you're probably not going to be very pleased. Pitching prospects are incredibly volatile, but we need them. The best way to develop some strong arms out of your farm system is to load your farm system with them. Plenty will fail, and some will succeed. If even one or two of them pan out to be a #1 or #2 starter, that is a huge success. 

 

Meyer was never a sure thing, in fact you're not going to find a sure thing pitching prospect. It's all about having the tools to potentially be a #1 or #2 starter. Meyer has those but he's a bit behind in the development in some respects and that's just the reality of baseball. 

 

From what I remember he had two strong pitches, and was developing a third, the changeup. That sounds like most every pitching prospect I can think of, I guess his third pitch just isn't coming along as quickly as they'd hoped. 

[Mike Sixel]

Ok, name the starters they have developed in the last 5 years to the majors that are on the roster......then, ask if questioning the scouting makes sense or not.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think I take issue with the idea that Ryan hasn't made trades that have panned out.  He had quite the reputation in his first run at GM as he aquired guys like Bartlett, Santana, Liriano, and Nathan.  He picked up guys like Bonser and Casilla who had small runs, and he failed on Zach Ward and Justin Jones. 

 

In his second run as GM, I'd hardly say he hasn't made any good ones.  He hasn't hit any homeruns, but he's already gotten value, especially considering what he was giving up.  Liriano for Escobar/Hernandez is already a win even though Hernandez is done.  I think you can say the Butera for Nunez (via Sulbaran) is also a win (even though that one isn't a swing for the fences type win).  Even if Gilmartin never sniffs the majors, the Gilmartin for Doumit trade was a win.  Doumit had a grand total of 157 PAs this season in Atlanta with an OPS well under .600.  The Morneau trade might be the closest thing to a loss, but he wasn't lights out for Pittsburg or for MN that year and we still have Johnson in our system as a capable spot starter.   The Meyer and May trades are the high profile ones, but they are still TBD, though given the careers of Span and Revere, it won't take a lot of WAR out of either of them for it to be a wash, but I have to think that the odds are in our favor there, even if these guys never reach their ceiling.  Likewise, picking up potential good relievers in Adams/Pryor for marginal pieces isn't going to hurt the team either.  The big difference between this run and his first run is that he really hasn't fleeced anyone except maybe the WhiteSox.

Well as I said, I like the potential of some of the moves he has made in his 2nd stint as GM, but the success of most of those moves are to be determined. If they all fail, he doesn't get to fall back only on his success from over a decade ago to save his job.

 

[Willihammer]

Looking back at old reports, the consensus among some (most?) scouts was that Meyer had ace upside but was only 20/80 to start/relieve. I don't know how much that alters the trade's equation, if at all.

[Mike Frasier Law]

Ok, name the starters they have developed in the last 5 years to the majors that are on the roster......then, ask if questioning the scouting makes sense or not.

 

Maybe the problem isn't scouting - maybe the twins have not developed pitchers appropriately. Upside is just potential, of course, and it's never inevitable that someone will reach their upside. 

 

It's hard to isolate a singular cause to the home team's failure to have a respectable starting staff for the last 5 years. I suspect it's a combination of drafting, scouting, development, and luck. But I was every happy about the Meyer and May acquisitions, and I still am. 

[biggentleben]

I don't think anyone viewed Meyer's upside as a nr 3 starter at the time of the trade. He was ranked as the #50 prospect by MLB, #3 in the Twins system, and had the kind of stuff to be an ace. That was viewed as his upside.

 

I know different.  He was a very divisive prospect.  You mention his MLB.com rank, which was actually #40, he was #59 in Baseball America, and #88 in Baseball Prospectus.  Sickels posted the following in his Twins write up:

 

 

6) Alex Meyer, RHP, Grade B+: Acquired from the Nationals for Denard Span. Impressive high-ceiling arm is something that the Twins need, could develop into a number two starter if he maintains the greater mechanical consistency he showed in 2012 compared to his college days at the University of Kentucky.

 

I followed Meyer very closely as I had him on a money dynasty league at the time.  He and Graham were discussed frequently by Up and In with Goldstein and Parks and compared strongly to one another as guys whose stuff could play dominant in the bullpen and would have a ceiling of a high-end #2 if they could figure out how to whiff guys, but both had dominant sinking stuff that could allow them to be an effective #3 sort of pitcher, in the Derek Lowe mold, as a sort of "fallback" option as a starter.

[Mike Sixel]

Huh, this was informative! Thanks......