Rand: Baseball Is Killing Itself With Information

[Parker Hageman]

The Star Tribune's Page 2 supreme overlord, Michael Rand, has a post about football, technology and Tinder that includes his reasoning as to why baseball is dying:

 

Baseball, too, was a very intense battle of skill — pitcher vs. batter — with a “here it is, if you can hit it” mentality.

{snip}

Baseball is killing itself with information. We know exact splits and tendencies, so why wouldn’t a manager use 7 different pitchers, often more than one in an inning, if he sees a way to get an edge? It fundamentally changes the way games are played, and more so it creates absurdly long games that will eventually drive fans away in droves if it can’t be fixed. But would you stop using information and technology available if you found it to be useful? Probably not.

 

 

In my day, baseball games were played under two hours and we watched through a hole in the fence and we liked it.

 

Yes, Rand maybe lobbying to take on the curmudgeon columnist spot but he's not wrong: Games are getting longer.

 

Take a look at this fivethirtyeight.com graph from April of this year:

 

http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/bialik-time-of-game-1a.png?w=1024

 

According to their research, each pitching change adds two minutes to the game's length but are not the biggest culprit of the additional game times. More likely, it's the time between pitches that has caused a bigger uptick in time at the ballpark:

 

"Another influential factor has to do not with the action, but with the time in between plays. Pitchers stare down base runners or wave off signs from catchers. Batters step out of the box and adjust their helmets and other gear. The time between pitches is getting longer."

 

 

The biggest thing, however, is that this is entirely enforceable by MLB's Rule 8.04 that states “When the bases are unoccupied, the pitcher shall deliver the ball to the batter within 12 seconds after he receives the ball. Each time the pitcher delays the game by violating this rule, the umpire shall call Ball.”

 

Do you feel like games are growing too long? Is it effecting your fandom?

[nicksaviking]

My fandom isn't affected, but it's generally not the fandom of people on sites such as this that MLB needs to concern itself with.  It's the average or casual fan that simply no longer watches the games but gets the highlights and score off the internet.

 

And it is absolutely correct that the time between pitches is the biggest culpret.  Fortunately, as mentioned, this situation is fixable as there is a rule in place and pitchers can be compelled to speed up the game.  Of course if they have less recovery time between pitches, and with max effort deliveries much more common, we will then likely see more pitching changes.  Of course as mentioned, the time it takes for pitching changes is a drop in the bucket compared to time between pitches.

 

Of course the biggest overall road block will be the advertising revenue.  The MLB won't be inclined to make any changes to shorten games while they still swim in excess ad money.  Of course, this will dry up if people stop watching, sponsers don't want to blow money on something people don't watch.  From my point of view these issues are correctable, and likely will be corrected in time due to the natural effects of capitalism.  MLB will enforce pitch speed rules once people stop watching enough to drive advertisers away.  We only need to hope that MLB understands the situation and does not dig their heels in long after it's too late to reverse course.

[boomerb5]

Baseball takes as long as it takes. That is one of the reasons I love it. However, the never-ending parade of relief pitchers is beyond tedious. The starter should routinely go about 7 innings. One or two relievers to finish the game. That's all that should be needed.

 

The whole righty vs lefty thing is overblown. There are a handful of left-handed relievers who really do seem to stymie left-handed hitters. But on the whole, the advantage is rather minimal. Fewer pitching changes makes for a more enjoyable game.

 

Also, is there a need for batters to adjust their gloves between every pitch? If they fit so poorly, don't use them. 

[James Richter]

It doesn't affect my fandom, though I certainly prefer to watch games where the pitchers are working quickly.

 

A change I would like to see is for the plate umpires to always err on the side of calling a close pitch a strike. I'm talking about right on the edge of the zone, could go either way. No, don't go either way, just call it a strike. Especially establish that in the first 3 innings. If the hitters know that they have to swing at every close 2-strike pitch, we'll have fewer pitches per PA, fewer walks, more balls in play, starters going deeper into the game... more action!

[Willihammer]

I can't think of anything more counterproductive to the "fewer pitching changes" goal than enforcing a 12 second deliver time on a pitchers. Fatigue is already affecting him. Adding a shot clock will only compound the fatigue, thus leading to more big innings, and more pitching changes...

 

There is only one surefire obvious way to improve the pace of the game, IMO, and that is to prep balls better. Pitchers should not have to re-rub up a ball after every foul ball / ball in the dirt requires the ump to give them a new one.

[Parker Hageman]

There is only one surefire obvious way to improve the pace of the game, IMO, and that is to prep balls better. Pitchers should not have to re-rub up a ball after every foul ball / ball in the dirt requires the ump to give them a new one.

 

 

Interesting...

[Mike Sixel]

As a more casual fan than you'd expect given how much time I waste here........

 

Yes, the time of games is a bummer and deterrent to my attendance. Yes, the time between pitches is too long to keep my attention (and I'm 50....imagine if I was part of the supposedly more easily distracted younger set).  No, stats and knowledge is not killing the game.

[drjim]

It doesn't affect my fandom, though I certainly prefer to watch games where the pitchers are working quickly.

 

A change I would like to see is for the plate umpires to always err on the side of calling a close pitch a strike. I'm talking about right on the edge of the zone, could go either way. No, don't go either way, just call it a strike. Especially establish that in the first 3 innings. If the hitters know that they have to swing at every close 2-strike pitch, we'll have fewer pitches per PA, fewer walks, more balls in play, starters going deeper into the game... more action!

 

I think with a few umpire exceptions this is overblown. The problem with a standard like this is where do you draw the line? Pitchers will keep pushing the edges of the zone until they no longer get the calls. And strikeouts are at record highs, I don't think the failure to call more strikes is the problem.

[powrwrap]

Serious baseball fan here and pace of the game is a factor for me. If they don't fix this my interest will likely drop to attending one or two games a year, just for the atmosphere and attempt at nostalgia and watching snippets of games in between other video content I happen to be watching, catching Baseball Tonight and/or the MLB Network highlight shows.

 

They need to have a rule that the batter must keep one foot in the batters box (like high school) and also enforce the timing rule for pitchers. Voila--instant sub 2 1/2 hour games.

 

The changing of relievers is not the main factor in the increase in the game times. It's also the tendency for batters to try to work a walk instead of trying to get a hit. But the biggies are the batter stepping out after every pitch and the pitcher taking time between pitches.

[powrwrap]

There is only one surefire obvious way to improve the pace of the game, IMO, and that is to prep balls better. Pitchers should not have to re-rub up a ball after every foul ball / ball in the dirt requires the ump to give them a new one.

 

This really doesn't take that much time. Actually, the home plate umpire and the catchers are really quick about swapping the ball out for a new one. Just watch for it when you watch your next game.

[Kwak]

Calling a bigger strike zone will help!  Call strikes at the letters at the batters normal stance--not his crouch.

Strikeouts are much higher because HR hitters are paid lots more  than the BAVG types--including the subpar defense the often accompanies the much larger HR hitter.  Better defense probably speeds-up the game as well.

[drjim]

Calling a bigger strike zone will help!  Call strikes at the letters at the batters normal stance--not his crouch.

Strikeouts are much higher because HR hitters are paid lots more  than the BAVG types--including the subpar defense the often accompanies the much larger HR hitter.  Better defense probably speeds-up the game as well.

 

But the fewest total home runs since 1995 were hit this year.

[Craig Arko]

Most everything is killing itself with information overload. Unless there's a Curt Flood exemption baseball shouldn't be expected to be immune.

[KGB]

Baseball is killing itself with the way batters approach to hitting has changed.  Taking strikes, trying to run up the pitch count and falling behind in the count. A strike out isn't just another out, it's an out 100% of the time, while a ball in play is a hit 30% of the time.  Good to see Morneau figured this out and had a career low in strike out percentage and won a Batting Title.

 

Strike outs are going up and walks are going down, I think pitchers have figured it out.  It you are giving them strikes, they will take them.  What's the benefit of getting to the bullpen, bullpen's have better stat's than starting pitchers.  Team set there lineup based on the starter, not the bullpen.

 

Being more aggressive at the plate will speed up the game and make it more enjoyable to watch. 

[Platoon]

A couple other issues. The ability of some hitters to run the AB up to ten or more pitches with endless foul balls. And the 3 minute commercial break between innings. I am not sure when that amount of time became standard, but there are I think 17 of them. Drop a minute on each, is 17 minutes. (I majored in remedial math)! I know advertising drives the show, but numerically at least that is a partial solution.

[drjim]

A couple other issues. The ability of some hitters to run the AB up to ten or more pitches with endless foul balls. And the 3 minute commercial break between innings. I am not sure when that amount of time became standard, but there are I think 17 of them. Drop a minute on each, is 17 minutes. (I majored in remedial math)! I know advertising drives the show, but numerically at least that is a partial solution.

 

I think you mean it is an explanation, not a solution, because networks aren't shelling out these huge contracts to see their advertising opportunities cut.

 

But yes, I actually think a large part of the increase in game times can be explained by increased time between innings for ads. And I don't see that changing.

[DocBauer]

Baseball is a beautiful game that suffers from very few flaws. And one of the best things about the sport as that while it may appear to the novice or uneducated viewer/new or casual fan that nothing has changed from one batter to another, or even one pitch to another, the educated fan knows that every single ball or strike in the count has a sudden change in the complexion of the AB or inning.

 

College and NFL games last between 3 to 3 1/4 hours, occassionally longer, but not generally. About as long as the average ML game. Of course, in a nice pitching matchup, you might actually see a ML game played in about 21/2 hours. Like it or not, we are in an age of rapid fire, limited attention spans and video game action mentalities.

 

Football games are far, far fewer than baseball games in number, so it's not a very fair comparison. But football has replaced baseball as the #1 sport in America, I believe, not just due to the importance and impact of a single game a week, but how the sport has been presented to the public over the years. Rivalries are stressed. Top players are publicized. Pre-game shows and highlight reals, expert opinions on what you should see and have seen, have kept the public galvanized.

 

Baseball doesn't have to change the game, and they don't have to speed up the game in reference to shortening the game, but they need to speed up the game only in regard to the down time. Enforcing time spent between pitches, calling a more by-the-book strike zone creates a better flow and more "action" as something happens, whether it be an out or ball in play. And I don't know if the sport needs more splashy graphics and talking heads to get younger viewers involved, but it could hurt. The sport needs to do a better job of marketing itself and the action, the players and teams. They don't have to re-invent the sport, but they need to market the entire experience for a different generation of young fans and viewers.

[biggentleben]

This is starting to become another re-hashing of a discussion we've had a number of times...

[D. Hocking]

But yes, I actually think a large part of the increase in game times can be explained by increased time between innings for ads. And I don't see that changing.

 

Semi-off topic, but I think this is becoming a problem in all sports.  The NFL games are pretty chopped up and seem to go on longer now as well.  This is the extreme example, but even when it is a good game all the commercial breaks really distract from the Super Bowl (and grumpy old man like rant -- the SB commercials have not been consistently good since about 2000, it is time to stop hyping the SB commercials like they are the artistic achievement of the year.  Most of them try too hard to be funny or entertaining.  End of grumpy old man rant that has nothing to do with this thread).

[Whammy]

 

Of course the biggest overall road block will be the advertising revenue.  The MLB won't be inclined to make any changes to shorten games while they still swim in excess ad money.  Of course, this will dry up if people stop watching, sponsers don't want to blow money on something people don't watch.  From my point of view these issues are correctable, and likely will be corrected in time due to the natural effects of capitalism.  MLB will enforce pitch speed rules once people stop watching enough to drive advertisers away.  We only need to hope that MLB understands the situation and does not dig their heels in long after it's too late to reverse course.

 

Taking pitching changes out of the equation for a second, a shorter game would actually generate more ad revenue for broadcast stations. You're locked into 2 commercial breaks every inning, which then gets you to 18 for the game (again... ignoring pitching changes). FSN would much rather those 18 commercial breaks be packed into two and a half hours rather than three and a half. That leaves them a whole extra hour to sell ads for.

[ashbury]

To me, an NFL game in person is much inferior to the TeeVee version.  I haven't reached that point with baseball, FWeverIW.

[Whammy]

Semi-off topic, but I think this is becoming a problem in all sports.  The NFL games are pretty chopped up and seem to go on longer now as well.  This is the extreme example, but even when it is a good game all the commercial breaks really distract from the Super Bowl (and grumpy old man like rant -- the SB commercials have not been consistently good since about 2000, it is time to stop hyping the SB commercials like they are the artistic achievement of the year.  Most of them try too hard to be funny or entertaining.  End of grumpy old man rant that has nothing to do with this thread).

 

RE: The NFL

 

Maybe a decade or so ago, the NFL games were getting out of hand and the NFL did something about it. Specifically, running time even on out-of-bounds plays, other than near the end of each half. Games were routinely still going 3:15 or 3:20, which precipitated the push back of most of the late afternoon games to 3:25.

 

This year I've actually noticed a few games finishing before 3:00. 

 

Progress.

[powrwrap]

And the 3 minute commercial break between innings. I am not sure when that amount of time became standard, but there are I think 17 of them. Drop a minute on each, is 17 minutes. (I majored in remedial math)! I know advertising drives the show, but numerically at least that is a partial solution.

FYI, commercial time between innings is 2 minutes 5 seconds. I think it goes up to 2 minutes 35 seconds during the playoffs.

[notoriousgod71]

FYI, commercial time between innings is 2 minutes 5 seconds. I think it goes up to 2 minutes 35 seconds during the playoffs.

 

 

And yet Fox1 has missed 90 percent of first pitches of the inning this postseason. It's beyond annoying and just bad tv.

[biggentleben]

Fox is beyond annoying and just bad tv.

 

FTFY

[Willihammer]

Here's how the shot clock works in the AFL

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/18/video-watch-the-pitch-clock-in-action-in-the-arizona-fall-league/

[Thrylos]

I have zero issues with the length of the game.  Zero.  If they want to shorten the game, they should cut down the in-between innings idiocy like the dressed maskot thing races and the scoreboard stuff.

[Thegrin]

If baseball would let technology call balls and strikes, both hitters and pitchers would feel more confident and would speed up the game.  Add to that the 12 second rule and not allowing batters to leave the batters box and the problem is solved.  Games would be quicker because each pitcher vs batter confrontation would be resolved quicker and the casual fan would be drawn in more.

The time of commercial breaks is about right at this time.  It gives the fans a chance to break concentration for so that they can refocus on the next half-inning of hitter-pitcher combat.

[Willihammer]

Seems to me for the shot clock to work as intended, they'll have to deny batter requests for time. Because a tired pitcher will just go into the set position and pause til he's caught his breath, and batters aren't going to stay tensed that whole time willingly.

 

Some simple ideas that might shave a few mins off games

 

1. In the postseason, keep commercial breaks to 2 mins. Most are 2 but there are some, particularly late in games and after the God Bless America in the 7th inning, that run longer.

2. Chuck God Bless America

3. Prep balls better

4. Work on challenge system. Right now a manager has to stall for a minute before he gets the thumbs up or down. Maybe if its that close, umps should get the call beamed in before making a ruling. We're going to wait for it one way or another. Might as well get it right the first time.

[drjim]

In my mind, the replay system should be almost exclusively the domain of umpires - if they want to take another look let them. 

 

Give each manager one challenge (that is conserved if they are correct) that has to be used within seconds of the play ending.