External OF Options

[stringer bell]

MLB Trade Rumors has a free agency writeup for Melky Cabrera, who would appear to be a good fit for the Twins. The article points out the lack of good options for teams looking for outfielders in free agency, putting Melky head and shoulders above all other traditional free-agent options.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/free-agent-stock-watch-melky-cabrera.html

 

I don't know if Cabrera is worth multiple years that far north of $10M per year. Most of the rest of the others listed look to be flawed candidates, as well.

 

It may be that the Twins won't bite on any free-agent outfielders. I am beginning to believe that might even be the right decision.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Melky is really the only significant upgrade worth pursuing (oh and Yasmani Tomas)

 

The 2016 crop of FA outfielders is more interesting - though it's entirely possible the better names will be retained by their current clubs via extension.

 

Alex Gordon has a player option for $12.5 MM - he may choose to decline that and make more money elsewhere...

Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Gerardo Parra, Austin Jackson, Jason Heyward, and Roger Bernadina will all be free agents, relatively young, too.

[Mike Sixel]

1 WAR is worth around $8 MM on the market right now, right? or is it $6 mm, I forget.

 

Cabrera is getting around $13-15MM per year, he's the only FA OF that looks legit, imo.

 

I believe the TWins will not be signing him. They might, might, sign a guy they HOPE will have a good year out of nowhere.

[Siehbiscuit]

I am 100% being serious here! Why not Torii Hunter on a final contract/swan song? This is different than the Kubel/Bartlett reunion in that he can still play. He would solve a couple problems for us: corner OF defense, veteran leadership and a solid bat in the lineup. The durability is not a major issue and he can mentor guys like Hicks, Buxton and Santana (and hopefully Arcia will pick up a thing or to about playing OF defense from him). He has 17 HR's each of the last two seasons and has been on winning ball teams the last few years, when the rest of team hasn't. He has never been one to stay quiet and I personally would like to see a veteran demand success and passion from his teammates. One year deal $4-6M?

[jharaldson]

He is on a 2 year/$16 million deal right now so I don't think he will get a longer deal than that.  I would be fine with a 2 year deal in the $20-30 million range.  If the Twins believe what Nick has written on this site and that they have no open spots other than LF then they should invest serious money in that spot and not just bring a ghost of Twins past.

[DJL44]

No more bad gloves. I'd rather see Colby Rasmus, a guy who can field but a streaky bat, than another out of place DH.

[Mike Sixel]

Because Hunter is bad? One of the worst OF on defensive metrics in all of baseball......people are stuck in the past. Torii is not good anymore.

[gunnarthor]

No more bad gloves. I'd rather see Colby Rasmus, a guy who can field but a streaky bat, than another out of place DH.

Yeah, Rasmus on a one year, make good deal makes a lot of sense.  Holds CF down while Hicks and Buxton work in the minors.  He still has potential despite some rough seasons.  And it lets the Twins find out what they have in Santana at short.  That said, by itself it doesn't clean up our problem in LF unless we think Scheffer can hold it down.

 

I also agree that the Twins should be a lot more aggressive on the Cuban free agents.  

[jharaldson]

No more bad gloves. I'd rather see Colby Rasmus, a guy who can field but a streaky bat, than another out of place DH.

 

I could see this.  If you have a serious commitment to improving our defense putting a CF like Rasmus or Span in LF would show that.  It would also give us more options if Hicks fails again or Buxton is delayed or not as good as we thought when he gets here.  

[Linus]

I could see this.  If you have a serious commitment to improving our defense putting a CF like Rasmus or Span in LF would show that.  It would also give us more options if Hicks fails again or Buxton is delayed or not as good as we thought when he gets here.  

This makes a bunch of sense.  Whoever they sign needs to be a possible safety net in CF.  That way, if Hicks finally makes it, this guy can play left; if Hicks doesn't make it, this guy can slide over and cover center.  I hate to say it but Schafer is starting to grow on me.  The fact that he could play either spot is valuable.  The reason I say "hate to say it" is that he might be the most likely regression candidate of all time.

[tobi0040]

Because Hunter is bad? One of the worst OF on defensive metrics in all of baseball......people are stuck in the past. Torii is not good anymore.

 

Baseball reference has Torii in the OF for 116 games this year, with a negative 2.5 defensive WAR.  Willingham has a negative 1.4 defensive WAR in 53 games in the OF.   Torii's defense this year loses you a game every 46, Josh's every 37.  Same ballpark. 

 

Torii's -.7 total WAR could probably be replaced by Rosario or Hicks.  Not to mention free up $10M that we coud use to address the actual problem (the rotation).

[DJL44]

MLB Trade Rumors reporting that Melky is getting a qualifying offer...

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Toronto is smart to offer it - They will be losing Rasmus this offseason most likely too (even though they have him on the bench quite a bit now).

 

I'm coming around to the idea that the Twins should be looking for defense first instead of an impact bat for LF.

 

Maybe Nori Aoki? He's been in RF this year, part of a very good Royals defensive OF.

 

Rasmus has had a down year defensively, but if the Twins sign him and put him in Left instead of CF, he might grade out better there (can't be worse than who's played there for the Twins this season).

 

If the Twins had the resources and inclination, they should try to acquire Brett Gardner from the Yankees, or Gerardo Parra. Parra's contract will be up at the end of 2015, so he'd be a short term solution most likely. Gardner is probably not moving for anything resembling a reasonable price - the Yankees seem to like him in pinstripes.

 

 

 

 

[tobi0040]

Toronto is smart to offer it - They will be losing Rasmus this offseason most likely too (even though they have him on the bench quite a bit now).

 

I'm coming around to the idea that the Twins should be looking for defense first instead of an impact bat for LF.

 

Maybe Nori Aoki? He's been in RF this year, part of a very good Royals defensive OF.

 

Rasmus has had a down year defensively, but if the Twins sign him and put him in Left instead of CF, he might grade out better there (can't be worse than who's played there for the Twins this season).

 

If the Twins had the resources and inclination, they should try to acquire Brett Gardner from the Yankees, or Gerardo Parra. Parra's contract will be up at the end of 2015, so he'd be a short term solution most likely. Gardner is probably not moving for anything resembling a reasonable price - the Yankees seem to like him in pinstripes.

 

A guy like Aoki may improve us defensively, but he is not a corner OF type bat.  His OPS this year is .691.  Both Hicks and Rosario are CF's that have been moved because of Buxton.  Both would have to be large upgrades in LF defensively, while having more upside than a guy like Aoki offensively.  Not to mention they make the minimum and would hopefully allow for a huge upgrade in the rotation, whether that be through FA or a trade.

 

I like Gardner the player, but his contract does not make him valuable and they would also want prospects in return. I don't see the fit.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

For the 2015 season I would say that Aoki will have a better MLB hitting line than Rosario. I'm not sure Rosario will be called up in 2015 at all.

 

Aoki's OPS this season is .691 - and his career OPS is .736

 

Hicks this season has an OPS of .606, and a career OPS of .602

 

Aoki is going to be 33 next season - offering him a 1 year deal would not be unreasonable for a player of his age and ability. Of the free agents listed for 2015, he's one of the better defenders. That's really the only reason I brought his name up.

 

I like Rosario long term (along with Buxton of course and Adam Brett Walker, among others), but for 2015 Left Field should be filled by someone better/more ML ready than the options the Twins have in-house. I agree that the in-house options have more upside, and I look forward to them making the club in the next two or three years.

[pierre75275]

I think the best thing the Twins could do this off season is sign Span if the nationals decline his 9.5 million option and he wants to come back. Rasmus would be nice. I wouldn't mind Cabrera but early estimates on his contract are in the Nolasco range so I would pass.

[tobi0040]

For the 2015 season I would say that Aoki will have a better MLB hitting line than Rosario. I'm not sure Rosario will be called up in 2015 at all.

 

Aoki's OPS this season is .691 - and his career OPS is .736

 

Hicks this season has an OPS of .606, and a career OPS of .602

 

Aoki is going to be 33 next season - offering him a 1 year deal would not be unreasonable for a player of his age and ability. Of the free agents listed for 2015, he's one of the better defenders. That's really the only reason I brought his name up.

 

I like Rosario long term (along with Buxton of course and Adam Brett Walker, among others), but for 2015 Left Field should be filled by someone better/more ML ready than the options the Twins have in-house. I agree that the in-house options have more upside, and I look forward to them making the club in the next two or three years.

 

I have a huge bias towards trying to solve the problem long term vs. short term. I am one to stick with a struggling young guy longer than most, especially whe are going to lose 90 games anyway.  Any 30+ year old on a one year deal that is not a great player just seems to be counter productive to me.  Then a year from now we have not developed a younger player and we are back to where we started. 

 

It has only been 30 at bats, but Hicks is hitting .266 with 3 BB's since coming up.  I think he is either here next year or cut. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I would agree with you if signing a player to a one year deal was actually keeping someone from playing on the ML team. I think if anyone loses out as a result of signing a FA outfielder, it's Nuñez or Eduardo Escobar. Santana moves to SS full-time, and one of the two Eduardos becomes the utility infielder. The other player becomes redundant.

 

Hicks (or Schafer) would slide to the 4th outfielder position, remain on the team full time.  

 

A one year deal doesn't stunt the development of a player that wasn't going to make the 25 Man roster yet. Aoki is just one possibility, but I think the Twins would benefit globally by improving the left field position. It takes pressure off the center fielders by having a better defender to pair with, it probably creates enough depth to move Santana to his regular position at SS, it improves the pitching staff's numbers by having a competent outfield defense behind them, hopefully allowing the starting staff to go deeper into games and putting less strain on the bullpen. In the meantime, Rosario can develop at AA and/or AAA in 2015. 

 

To your point, I think adding a FA Left fielder does aid the development of the prospects, specifically Danny Santana as well as the young starters Gibson, May, and possibly Alex Meyer if they call him up early in 2015.

[tobi0040]

I would agree with you if signing a player to a one year deal was actually keeping someone from playing on the ML team. I think if anyone loses out as a result of signing a FA outfielder, it's Nuñez or Eduardo Escobar. Santana moves to SS full-time, and one of the two Eduardos becomes the utility infielder. The other player becomes redundant.

 

Hicks (or Schafer) would slide to the 4th outfielder position, remain on the team full time.  

 

A one year deal doesn't stunt the development of a player that wasn't going to make the 25 Man roster yet. Aoki is just one possibility, but I think the Twins would benefit globally by improving the left field position. It takes pressure off the center fielders by having a better defender to pair with, it probably creates enough depth to move Santana to his regular position at SS, it improves the pitching staff's numbers by having a competent outfield defense behind them, hopefully allowing the starting staff to go deeper into games and putting less strain on the bullpen. In the meantime, Rosario can develop at AA and/or AAA in 2015. 

 

To your point, I think adding a FA Left fielder does aid the development of the prospects, specifically Danny Santana as well as the young starters Gibson, May, and possibly Alex Meyer if they call him up early in 2015.

 

But then you get into a situation where Hicks could be your 4th guy, but he needs at bats so he ends up in AAA (see Pinto).

 

I just think you need to either have a significant upgrade, or let young guys figure it out. No in-between.  I did not mean to go on a tangent, but the same could be said for the rotaton.   Either sign a guy like Shields, or let Meyer and May duke it out. At some point we are going to need to get better players.  So the marginal, below average veteran, either in LF or the rotation is not helping our cause.  It is no lock that the prospects end up as high end major league talent, but the ceiling is higher than the FA's we are likely to target.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I agree that a significant upgrade is needed and a half-measure isn't going to make much difference. The specific example of Aoki is probably not the guy the Twins need. I would argue that his defense is above average, but I do concede the point that his bat is below average. There really aren't many viable options available via free agency. Next year's FA class is much more appealing. However, by then the Twins should have made some promotions and adding an outside player will be stunting the growth of their prospects.

 

If they want to upgrade this offseason, they are probably going to have to do it via trade (or just sign Yasmani Tomas!). To get someone good, they may need to give something up of real value. I think there are players on the current 40 Man roster that won't make the cut this offseason. The Twins will be adding a few players to the 40 Man just to protect the prospects from the Rule V draft, so that means that there will definitely be some turnover. Whether any of the departing players have trade value is debatable.

 

Also agree on the pitching staff. You can have too many Pelfrey-level guys, but not too many Aces, so there's no problem for the Twins to offer contracts to the top 3 or 4 free agent pitchers, but beyond that we're better off going with the in-house options. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

interesting interview with Colby Rasmus - seems like he's going to be looking for a new team this offseason. The Twins could be a fit, especially if he's looking for a short term contract to re-build his value:

 

http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_macarthur/?id=461951

[DJL44]

interesting interview with Colby Rasmus

 

I agree that it is interesting. I can't decide if he'd fit well in a Twins clubhouse or not fit at all.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Yes - the clubhouse chemistry would be really hard to factor in. He seems like a guy that Gardy would like in that he talks in a similar vein: "battle," "grind," etc etc. and the comments after the article from Jays fans seem to back up that he does at least give the appearance of maximum effort.

 

This interview seems like the opposite of the issues that came up regarding Aaron Hicks this year.

 

I suspect that a lot of what we hear about in terms of clubhouse / team chemistry is through the lens of the local media, so what we're getting is a LaVelle or Sid filtered version of who works hard, who is a positive clubhouse guy and who is a cancer.

 

He gives the impression that he would play well in an environment in which he's not micro-managed. Again, depending on how the clubhouse is being characterized, that could be what it is like in Minnesota, or he might hate it here...

[jay]

Any and all free agent money should be spent on free agent pitching, starting staff and bullpen. Until they square away the pitching staff all other areas are just window dressing.

 

I subscribe to the idea that better defense accomplishes exactly what you think they need to.

 

I really like the Rasmus idea.  Short-term.  Young.  Some upside.  Would slot in around the 7 spot pretty well.  TF isn't great to LH power, but the HR data shows he doesn't hit many questionable HRs... when he gets it, he gets it (probably tied to his high K%).

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/overlay/overlay_1411067076_937966085.jpg

[the_youngster]

Denard Span really does seem to be the best option. Batting almost .300 again with plenty of doubles and stolen bases. He will also be only 30 next year. I highly doubt Washington picks up his option since in the outfield they have Harper and Werth long term, 3 of their top prospects are outfielders (2 at MLB in Taylor and Souza, and another who finished at AAA in Goodwin). Ryan Zimmerman's days at 3rd base may also be over, as he has already been tested out in LF earlier this season while Harper was injured. Slot Span in CF, Arcia in RF, and maybe even Hicks in LF and there's a significantly better defensive outfield (compared to Santana, Arcia, and another infielder). Have Schafer as the 4th outfielder and no more infielders in the outfield.

[Physics Guy]

I agree that Span is a great option, but I don't agree that the Nats won't pick up the option.  A CF who plays average or better defensively and has an OPS of .765 isn't a throwaway.  I would think they would at least pick it up and then try to trade him.  Also, Ryan Zimmerman is no lock to stay healthy, so moving him out doesn't make a ton of sense.  I don't see Harper as a full-time CF.

[Kelly Vance]

Because Hunter is bad? One of the worst OF on defensive metrics in all of baseball......people are stuck in the past. Torii is not good anymore.

Torii is hitting .288 currently, has over 80 RBIs and hits 2-3 on a Tiger's team that is winning the Central and leading the AL in hitting.  Just what hitting metrics are you reading? Plus he is a leader in the clubhouse, something the Twins are short on, and a winner. 

[the_youngster]

A trade option could be Scott Van Slyke of the Dodgers (.283/.379/.520). They already have Puig, Kemp, Crawford, Ethier, and now Pederson for next year. At catcher this year, they've been using Butera, AJ Ellis (.193/.326/.260), and Tim Federowicz (.116/.151/.203). The Dodgers lack any real catching prospects that are even remotely close to helping the ML club. Instead of worrying about Pinto's playing time, I would be fine with trading him for Van Slyke and a pitcher, cause the Dodgers have an excessive amount of those too. Personally, I'm thinking Carlos Frias (has hit 99 as a reliever) and Van Slyke.

[Mike Sixel]

Torii is hitting .288 currently, has over 80 RBIs and hits 2-3 on a Tiger's team that is winning the Central and leading the AL in hitting.  Just what hitting metrics are you reading? Plus he is a leader in the clubhouse, something the Twins are short on, and a winner. 

 

Did you read the part where I said "defensive" metrics?

[drjim]

Did you read the part where I said "defensive" metrics?

 

Play him 4-5 times a week in LF and his defense will be fine.