Article: R.A. - The One That Got Away

[Mike Sixel]

twinsnorth49: now that is a logical argument that I can respect. That is not what thrylos usually gets back though, he usually just gets called names or somesuch. Like I said, I don't always agree with his process or conclusions, but at least he tries to use logic in his work, rather than just making statements as if they were factual. And for the most part, I don't think he calls others names or ridicules them for their posts either. And, given that he and I spent the last two years pretty much disagreeing on Seth's site, I can't believe I just made two posts in one thread defending him.

[gunnarthor]

So... I gave y'all evidence of 20 pitchers who did better (and some flourished) after they left the Gardy and Andy mess. And numbers do not lie. Period. Unless y'all give me 20 or more pitchers who improved under Gardy and Andy, you got to take the truth and see the reality that these guys are hurting our team big time.

 

Just saying. Put up or shut up. (Isn't that how that saying goes?)

Thank you.

Well, I think you certainly found ways to make numbers lie. Look at Lohse, for example. You show a few rate stats that suggest he's been better in St. Louis under uber-pitching coach Duncan. But you ignore things like IP, park factors and even the switch to the NL. WAR (and WAR has TONS of problems) shows that, while their adjusted ERA was roughly the same, Lohse's career WAR in MN was nearly double what he's done in St. Louis 5.5 vs 2.8. (St Louis also payed him over 33m for that while we paid him 7.3m). Same problem again with Romero who threw over 400 innings, out of a career total of about 600, with the Twins yet your only "analysis" is rate stats.

 

You also included Redman who was traded before Anderson became our pitching coach (solid analysis for the guy who thought Smalley wasn't on the 87 Twins team).

 

As others indicated, you also failed to do any study the other way - pitchers that got better. Guys like Guerrier, Reyes, Breslow, Burton, Nathan all got better when they came to the Twins.

[StormJH1]

I don't fault the Twins for letting him go, but I do remember liking him, and there were stretches where he wasn't really THAT bad. If he put up his '09 performance on THIS year's Twins team, we'd be celebrating him.

 

Still, he had zero track record for success prior to the Twins, and he had a 4.2 BB/9 and 1.62 WHIP for us. In his three years with the Mets, he basically cut his walks in half, which I would imagine is a big key to his success. And yes, he only got one start even though our rotation that year was not all that great, and he's ill suited to be a reliever. I might actually read his book, I think he's one of the more fascinating stories in baseball. It wasn't even discovered he was missing the UCL until somebody spotted him holding his elbow at strange angle in a USA baseball team photo.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Back to original topic--great article on RA Dickey by Nick. I am one of those who is not a knuckle ball fan--it is an ugly pitch and leads to ugly games with passed balls and wild pitches. But good for RA for making it with the Mets.

 

As to whether guys got better when leaving Rick Anderson--sure Lohse did under Duncan--but in NL pitchers have lower ERAs cause they face the opposing pitcher. Nathan certainly improved under Anderson. Others like Humber didnt really get an opportunity here...as someone pointed out we traded Garza for Delmon...turned out to be a really bad trade that is not Anderson's fault.

[cr9617]

twinsnorth49: now that is a logical argument that I can respect. That is not what thrylos usually gets back though, he usually just gets called names or somesuch. Like I said, I don't always agree with his process or conclusions, but at least he tries to use logic in his work, rather than just making statements as if they were factual. And for the most part, I don't think he calls others names or ridicules them for their posts either. And, given that he and I spent the last two years pretty much disagreeing on Seth's site, I can't believe I just made two posts in one thread defending him.

I'm not going to call Thrylos any names. He's a passionate Twins fan;somewhat delusional and over the top, and often times lacking objectivity in his points. Example? Thrylos picked the Twins to win the Central, beat the Yanks in the postseason, and go on to win the World Series in 2012. And he was serious...

 

I guess my point is....Don't take anything Thrylos says seriously. He does try and use logic in what he says, it just happens to be twisted logic that's not always based in reality.

[spideyo]

Now on to what NIck actually wrote in this article... This is Nick at his best, by the way. I really enjoyed the article, and he's such a talented writer.

 

I found it interesting that the Twins actually signed him to a minor league contract a year earlier, but because they signed him so quickly to a minor league deal, he was able to be selected in the Rule 5 draft by Seattle, and when Seattle wanted to send him down, the M's sent Jair Fernandez to the Twins.

 

The next year, the Twins and Dickey waited until afte the Rule 5 draft to sign a minor league contract.

 

As for the question at hand, I can't blame the Twins for letting Dickey go. I don't think there were any (many) Twins fans that were disappointed when the TWins let him go. Hindsight is a beautiful thing, and the Twins sure could use Dickey! But I can't blame the Twins for not seeing this. And again, it's in the NL.

I was disappointed they let him go. Extremely so. But I'm a big fan of guys who don't fit the traditional molds in their positions. I'm still fascinated and intrigued by his complete lack of a UCL. He won't ever need to Tommy John surgery, because there is NOTHING THERE to replace or repair. Think about that. He is actually MISSING a key component of his pitching arm.

[Mike Sixel]

On topic, I love knuckelballers, and was a bit bummed when they let him go. I also wanted to see him more as a starter. That said, I don't really fault them for the decision making process here.

[Shane Wahl]

Really, you have a PHD in Philosophy?.......now I'm just embarrassed.

Why be embarrassed? Maybe I should be as an adjunct with another job and a Twins Daily addiction?

[Hater]

That list is pretty weak. Almost all of them are Bullpen guys. But let's backtrack for a second. Glad R.A Dickey is dominating in the friendly confines of Citi Field where it's impossible to hit a jack in the weak National League where you don't even have to face Prince Fielder and Albert Poo anymore. I remember watching RA Dickey pitch and the only thing that was remotely good about him was that he didn't need to warm up to pitch. He sucked, glad he is pitching well in AAAA ball, he obviously has improved his knuckle ball which takes a lot of time to perfect. As for the list if you think there is some overall major issue with the Twins because 15 bullpen guys pitched better in their later stints well you are a jackanape then sir. Half of those guys pitched well for the Twins in any case or were injured. A big BOO URNS!

[Shane Wahl]

You are aptly named, Hater.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not up to date on new internet deriding, is the insult jackanape really back in fashion, or is Shakespeare once again required reading in school?

[strumdatjag]

Someday, I hope to read a story about a born-again Buddhist baseball player, or recalcitrant atheist athlete, or the formation of the Fellowship of Hindu Athletes. Those would be remarkable.

[nicksaviking]

Would the old House of David baseball team suffice? That was a pretty interesting group of players from the early 1900's. How the catcher didn't step on his beard when he squated behind the plate was a pretty amazing feat.

[twinsnorth49]

I'm not up to date on new internet deriding, is the insult jackanape really back in fashion, or is Shakespeare once again required reading in school?

It is if you're still a fan of Strongbad and the Cheat.

[Cap'n Piranha]

How about the ultimate comeback to "Rick Anderson makes pitchers worse"...one Johan Santana.

 

Before being selected in the rule 5 draft, Santana never pitched above A ball, compiling a 15-18 record across 294 innings (54 appearances, 48 starts). His ERA was 5.05, with a 1.39 WHIP, while compiling 274 strikeouts compared to 103 walks (8.4 k/9, 2.66 k/BB). He also gave up 26 homers (1 homer every 11.1 innings).

 

With the Twins (excluding his brief stint in 2002 in AAA), Santana had a 93-44 record in 1308.1 innings (251 appearances, 175 starts). His ERA was 3.22, with a 1.09 WHIP, while putting up 1381 strikeouts against 364 walks (9.5 k/9, 3.79 k/BB). He gave up 144 big flies (1 homer every 9 innings).

 

With the Mets, Santana is 43-27 in 668 innings (99 appearances, all starts). His ERA is 2.80, with a 1.16 WHIP, while getting 564 strikeouts and surrendering 185 walks (7.6 k/9, 3.05 k/BB), with 63 homers (1 every 10.2 innings).

 

The only stats Johan has been better at with the Mets is ERA and homers/9. HOWEVER, if you take only the seasons where Santana was a starter for the Twins, you get the following;

 

70-32, 2.89 ERA, .99 WHIP, 912.1 IP, 983 k, 198 BB (9.7k/9, 4.96 k/BB), 103 HR (1/9IP).

 

So the Mets Santana is ahead on the same numbers, but not by much, while the other numbers with the Twins dwarf those with the Mets. This is only one example, but this is a clear-cut scenario where Santana was much better with the Twins than either before or after.

[gunnarthor]

How about the ultimate comeback to "Rick Anderson makes pitchers worse"...one Johan Santana.

 

Before being selected in the rule 5 draft, Santana never pitched above A ball, compiling a 15-18 record across 294 innings (54 appearances, 48 starts). His ERA was 5.05, with a 1.39 WHIP, while compiling 274 strikeouts compared to 103 walks (8.4 k/9, 2.66 k/BB). He also gave up 26 homers (1 homer every 11.1 innings).

 

With the Twins (excluding his brief stint in 2002 in AAA), Santana had a 93-44 record in 1308.1 innings (251 appearances, 175 starts). His ERA was 3.22, with a 1.09 WHIP, while putting up 1381 strikeouts against 364 walks (9.5 k/9, 3.79 k/BB). He gave up 144 big flies (1 homer every 9 innings).

 

With the Mets, Santana is 43-27 in 668 innings (99 appearances, all starts). His ERA is 2.80, with a 1.16 WHIP, while getting 564 strikeouts and surrendering 185 walks (7.6 k/9, 3.05 k/BB), with 63 homers (1 every 10.2 innings).

 

The only stats Johan has been better at with the Mets is ERA and homers/9. HOWEVER, if you take only the seasons where Santana was a starter for the Twins, you get the following;

 

70-32, 2.89 ERA, .99 WHIP, 912.1 IP, 983 k, 198 BB (9.7k/9, 4.96 k/BB), 103 HR (1/9IP).

 

So the Mets Santana is ahead on the same numbers, but not by much, while the other numbers with the Twins dwarf those with the Mets. This is only one example, but this is a clear-cut scenario where Santana was much better with the Twins than either before or after.

Cueller is responsible for all of Santana's sucess. Liriano's too (although it's Anderson's fault when he's bad).

[James Richter]

Whoa. I will drop the PhD in Philosophy bomb here (which might explain why I spend so much time on a baseball site . . . ), but I have to at this point to note how impressed I am at the use of philosophers of logic and science in baseball threads. Damn.

I think Dickey (and his buddy Slowey) would be proud to see himself discussed with such erudition. Like the anti-Souhan. Maybe we should start a book club!

[one_eyed_jack]

Good as always, Nick. While I prefer it were with the Twins, I'm glad to see RA having success given all the stuff he's opened up about.

 

As for the thrylos list, It's kind of like reading an editorial written by a hardcore member of one of the two major political parties about a candidate from the other. It's supported by facts and passion, but it's far too biased, selective and anecdotal to constitute the damning indictment of Anderson he concludes it is.

 

You need to account for other variables that impact a pitcher's performance (as the pitching coach is not the only one or even the primary one), and at least attempt to balance it out with counterexamples. And while I don't have the time to do it, if one were so inclined, I would be that you could put together a similar list for just about any team for the last dozen years. You can't have a 100-man roster. Decisions have to be made about who to keep and who to let go. Inevitably, some guys you let go will catch on elsewhere and have some success.

 

Also, it seems to me that if you're going to assess Anderson as a pitching coach, you'd at least want to take a peek at how his guys have fared relative to the competition. The Twins have pretty consistently ranked among the better teams in the AL in pitching, so I don't think the guy is completely worthless.

 

And I say this as someone who favors bringing in a new coaching staff next year. Not becuase I'm in the "Gardy/Vavra/Anderson are idiots" crowd, I think they've all been solid, but I think things have gotten a bit stale, and it's time for a change.

[jokin]

I also don't mean to advocate for Rick Anderson, he's a great guy but I'm not sure he's getting the job done any longer.

 

As for pitchers who pitched worse after leaving the Twins, I can think of Eric Milton, Mark Redmon, Juan Rincon, Boof Bonser, Eddie Guardado, Carlos Silva and while still good, not as good Johan Santana.

It's always interesting when both sides of the argument are true.

 

Johan's WAR for 2003-2007: 31.3 (#1 ranking for P)

Joahn's WAR for 2008-2012: 12.7 (Scott Baker is 12.2 over the same time frame)

 

 

 

Time for the Thrylos breakdown of Dan Warthen and the Mets.

[nicksaviking]

It is if you're still a fan of Strongbad and the Cheat.

Good lord, I had to google that. I guess I don't get out enough, and by that I mean stay in and watch internet cartoons!

[TwinVike61]

Good lord, I had to google that. I guess I don't get out enough, and by that I mean stay in and watch internet cartoons!

Wow, I'm glad I'm not the only one who had no idea what that referred to...

[ashbury]

Wow, I'm glad I'm not the only one who had no idea what that referred to...

You haven't lived until you've been forced to watch multiple episodes of Teen Girl Squad with your 14 year old daughter. "I HAVE A CRUSH ON EVERY BOY!!!!!!!!"

[twinsnorth49]

Good lord, I had to google that. I guess I don't get out enough, and by that I mean stay in and watch internet cartoons!

Good lord, nice assumptions cool guy. Clearly you've never spent much time on the internet at all.

[jokin]

Good lord, nice assumptions cool guy. Clearly you've never spent much time on the internet at all.

Or some others have spent too much...?

[twinsnorth49]

Or some others have spent too much...?

Well it's nice to see you're finally keeping up.

[Krogher]

I picked him up during my fantasy-team draft for $1. I now know what the Vikes felt like when they got Cris Carter!

[bird]

Classic thrylos "analysis". One-sided garbage to support a belief. Intellectually dishonest crap.