Article: Trade Glen Perkins

[Twins Fan From Afar]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/3258-Trade-Glen-Perkins

[Cody Christie]

Great post. The idea does make sense. They aren't going to get much for the veteran players with expiring contracts.

[SurroundedByTigers]

I can create a scenario next year where a lot of pieces fall into place for Twins, like May, Meyer, Berrios in starting rotation, and Sano, Buxton filling out lineup next year and contributing, if not starrring, along with a few more players raising their game a notch. So with that scenario, Perkins becomes very, very important player closing games. Sorry - trading Perkins is a bad idea.

[Thegrin]

I couldn't disagree more. Whether this is a 90 loss or 90 win season, fans love the idea that if the Twins have a chance to win a game, Perkins can come in and close it. This puts hope in our hearts and butts in the seats. Trading Perkins would send a terrible message to Twins fans everywhere.

[TheLeviathan]

I think, for good or for bad, Perk is here for the long haul.

[Boone]

I could not agree with the article more. What it boils down to is this: by the time we are legitimate World Series contenders, Perkins will be a free agent, past his prime, and we should have other viable options to close games. To maximize Perkins's value to the team-- from a win-loss perspective-- he should be traded.

[DaveW]

I wouldn't trade him.

 

He agreed to a very team friendly long term deal in order to stay in Minnesota. He is signed under very good terms until potentially 2018, when the Twins very much should be world series contenders by then. (I think they compete in 2015 and have a big run from 2015-2018)

 

Unless the return is insane (top flight SS or ace type pitcher) I think you absolutely hold onto him. Trading him the same year after he took a team friendly deal in order to stay in Minnesota would look really bad on the org and could hurt them on signing such deals in the future. Glen clearly likes/wants to be here, the Twins clearly like having him on the club. Just keep him. The farm system is deep enough, at some point you need talent on the major league roster as well otherwise you turn into the 1990-2012 version of the KC Royals.

[bird]

The Twins should sell from surplus to solve deficiencies. Which relief pitcher, here or in Rochester or New Britain, has Perkin's ceiling? We don't have a surplus of this caliber of reliever.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see a large value difference between Perkins today and Perkins 16 months from now, provided he stays healthy.

 

I say hold on to Perkins until more information is available. If the Twins magically compete next season (or show signs they will compete in 2016), they'll regret having traded their best reliever, a Minnesota native under a team-friendly contract.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins should sell from surplus to solve deficiencies.

 

Agreed. Opening one hole to fill another seems foolish to me, even if I think closers are ridiculously overrated.

 

Which relief pitcher, here or in Rochester or New Britain, has Perkin's ceiling? We don't have a surplus of this caliber of reliever.

 

Nick Burdi comes to mind... But having Burdi in the eighth and Perkins in the ninth makes for a shut-down bullpen.

[beyondclarity]

I'm firmly on the fence here...I believe the turnaround will be faster than you believe, but at the same time I totally understand the value here. Considering this is really a non-talker (since it will never happen). I'll just stay right where I am on this one.

[Winston Smith]

You want to give Gardy a heart attack? No proven closer?

[halfchest]

I can see where it makes some sense but I think there is also a loyalty issue here. Perkins signed that team friendly extension and I believe he most definitely took a home town discount. To trade that guy in the first year of said extension seems like sort of a shady move. May it make baseball sense? possibly. Gotta remember these guys are more than just trading cards, they have families, etc. Glen is a lucky one in professional sports in that he is good enough to play in his hometown, be a star and raise his family in his home state. I have to think he signed this contract with that in perspective.

 

What would a Glen Perkins trade net? Would it save the franchise? Would it turn everything around? Possible I suppose, Do we trade Phil Hughes too because he won't pitch a meaningful game for the Twins? Brian Dozier is only locked in for four years maybe he should go too?

 

At some point you need to start keeping your best players and hoping things break right, the Span and Revere trades made a lot of sense as there wasn't really anything to offer hope in the upper minors at that point. Now we have a lot of young guys starting to come up, starting to learn and contribute. My hope is that May, Meyer, Buxton, Sano, Vargo and possibly Rosario and/or Polanco all spend significant time in MLB in 2015 which would put us on track to contend in 2016.

 

So while I can get the sentiment that it might make sense to trade Perkins, especially if he can net us a pitching prospect with Ace upside that is already in High A/AA. We also have to consider the human element and what message it might send to future free agents/extension candidates if he's traded.

[halfchest]

Even though I disagree, great post, good topic of conversation.

[tobi0040]

I wouldn't trade him.

 

He agreed to a very team friendly long term deal in order to stay in Minnesota. He is signed under very good terms until potentially 2018, when the Twins very much should be world series contenders by then. (I think they compete in 2015 and have a big run from 2015-2018)

 

Unless the return is insane (top flight SS or ace type pitcher) I think you absolutely hold onto him. Trading him the same year after he took a team friendly deal in order to stay in Minnesota would look really bad on the org and could hurt them on signing such deals in the future. Glen clearly likes/wants to be here, the Twins clearly like having him on the club. Just keep him. The farm system is deep enough, at some point you need talent on the major league roster as well otherwise you turn into the 1990-2012 version of the KC Royals.

 

Great point Dave. He has taken two team friendly deals now. You could argue the last deal was a 30-50% discount. Just out of principal that would be a terrible way to conduct a business.

[bird]

Agreed. Opening one hole to fill another seems foolish to me, even if I think closers are ridiculously overrated.

 

 

 

Nick Burdi comes to mind... But having Burdi in the eighth and Perkins in the ninth makes for a shut-down bullpen.

 

And if Burdi had performed lights out in AAA for more than a month, trading Perkins would

 

make a little more sense.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

Thanks for all the good comments & discussion.

 

After I wrote this, something really perplexed me: the 3-team no trade clause. Glen definitely wants to stay for life, and at a very reasonable rate. I'm curious how the parties arrived at that contract term, because it does very little (nothing, really) to protect Perkins. I just thought that was a funny number.

[TheLeviathan]

And if Burdi had performed lights out in AAA for more than a month, trading Perkins would make a little more sense.

 

That's fair and I'd personally like to see them keep Perkins. However, it does bear saying that relief pitching is frequently one of the most overvalued commodities and the Twins have always been very good at putting bullpens together for cheap.

[JB_Iowa]

Thanks for all the good comments & discussion.

 

After I wrote this, something really perplexed me: the 3-team no trade clause. Glen definitely wants to stay for life, and at a very reasonable rate. I'm curious how the parties arrived at that contract term, because it does very little (nothing, really) to protect Perkins. I just thought that was a funny number.

 

It is a funny number.

 

But I also wonder about Perkins' absolute confidence that he won't be traded. Just that closer's mentality or is there something else?

[gunnarthor]

I do hope they trade Perkins for the reasons you mentioned but they won't. It would be hard to get back equal value.

[chopper0080]

I do hope they trade Perkins for the reasons you mentioned but they won't. It would be hard to get back equal value.

 

I don't believe they will trade Perkins either but for others to say they shouldn't is pretty funny. Look at what happened with Buxton and Sano this year, Gibson two years ago and understand we are a bad team. The idea that Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Meyer and Mays are all going to come up next year and produce is delusion. Players get injured, they struggle and other things come up. If you have an older asset like Perkins, you trade him if you can get a legitimate deal for him. You keep adding pieces and deal with specific issues when you get there. Trade Kurt Suzuki. Players get hurt, they get into funks, and sometimes it all falls apart in a hurry. Get rid of them and move forward rather than clinging to the ridiculous idea that the stars will align in 2015.

 

If we get close to competing in 2016 then we can add a closer if one has not emerged. Then we can add a catcher if it is still a hole on the roster.

[Bill Parker]

I can't believe I'm about to be the positive one here, but "as the team slowly but surely heads to a fourth straight 90-loss campaign"? They're on pace to lose 87-88. They certainly could lose 90, or they could get just a little bit hot and finish over .500. I know that's not the point of the piece, just struck me as a weird thing to say (and more than once).

 

Mostly, though, I think this piece is way too down on the Twins' chances in the near future. The Twins' rotation by mid-2015 could be Hughes, Meyer, May, Gibson, Berrios. Buxton and Sano could both still be in the lineup every day by sometime in May, and I think Arcia's going to turn into a terrific hitter and Mauer's bat will come back strong after the concussion is about 18 months behind him. This could suddenly be a very good team in 2015, and to write 2016 off right now seems kind of ridiculous.

 

And what I think this article kind of ignores is that while dominant relievers can come from anywhere (Wade Davis?!), there aren't any guarantees, and known quantities like Perkins, who also happen to be one of the 5 or so best in baseball at what they do, are still quite valuable and hard to come by. And Perkins' deal is insanely cheap, for what he gives you, and will continue to be insanely cheap for four more years. If it were a $12 million/year Joe Nathan sort of deal, then yeah, maybe save some money and take a bit of a gamble on turning up a great reliever somewhere else before you need one. As it is, though, he's costing you next to nothing in baseball terms, and some team would have to really want Perkins (like, a package centered around a near-MLB-ready, top-100 type of prospect) before I thought it made any sense at all.

[chris]

Sorry but I couldn't disagree more. Perkins isn't keeping anyone down in his role, he isn't causing issues with the salary like Mauer and he is a 2 time all star. Sorry but Perkins salary isn't the problem on this team. If anything they need more guys like Perk who care and want to win. The Twins need less of the loveable losers that we have come to expect.

[DaveW]

That's fair and I'd personally like to see them keep Perkins. However, it does bear saying that relief pitching is frequently one of the most overvalued commodities and the Twins have always been very good at putting bullpens together for cheap.

 

In this day of age you really need 2-3 shut down arms in a pen ideally, if Burdi comes up and is lights out you suddenly have a very formidable pen (think of the Yankees Robertson/Rivera combo last year)

 

The thing at this point is as solid as the Twins pen has been this year there aren't any real "shut down" guys besides Perkins on this team, Fien is a nice player and all but in a perfect world I think you aim a bit higher for your "8th" inning guy and have Fien as your 7th inning guy.

 

Fien-Burdi-Perkins could be a very formidable/key part of a Twins resurgence in 2015/16/17 IMHO

 

Also, Perkins is probably my favorite player on the Twins team, I would personally be sad to see him go, especially if we get a couple of ho hum prospects or what not in return. As a poster mentioned above, we should only trade long term assets if we have a surplus of them in the majors/major league ready at this point. Perkins is the only Twin who strikes out more than a batter an inning.

[jokin]

The Twins have, or will have, other qualified relievers to do that job at a fraction of the price. For instance, Nick Burdi. He's still a young prospect, and yes, he might never get out of Low-A. But, by 2016 or 2017, Burdi could be a dominating back-end reliever closing games for the Twins. And, he could do it for 10% the price of Perkins. Burdi could be 90% as good as Perkins for 10% of the price. Even if you don't care about the Twins' payroll, the Twins do.

 

Great article...and the above hits the nail on the head. As much as most Twins fans appreciate and admire what Perk represents to the franchise and to his value-added presence in terms of viewing entertainment (I count myself in this group), most fans also agree that there is very little talent to offer to other teams in order to help the Twins get out of their now going-on-4-years morass.

 

The closer is often called the most overrated position in baseball (or in "sports", depending on who's writing the headline), and why not, it was the Chicago Cubs that first started using their best relievers primarily in the 9th inning (first Bruce Sutter, which led to Lee Smith, both failed starters). I think the odds are good that, like Perkins replacing Nathan, the Twins can readily find the right guy from their existing stable.

 

Barring calamity, Burdi will be a fast-riser in the organization, one can make an argument that one year from today he will be throwing with the Twins. But there are a slew of other good options in AAA, AA and A+ ball, as well.

 

I've mentioned it before, but will throw it out again, the Dodgers can readily afford taking on Perkins contract....they could really use a another shut-down LHP in their pen....and they really need a catcher. Would the return on trading Perkins and Suzuki together yield a hard-to-say-no package including SS Corey Seager in return?

[DaveW]

I can't believe I'm about to be the positive one here, but "as the team slowly but surely heads to a fourth straight 90-loss campaign"? They're on pace to lose 87-88. They certainly could lose 90, or they could get just a little bit hot and finish over .500. I know that's not the point of the piece, just struck me as a weird thing to say (and more than once).

 

Mostly, though, I think this piece is way too down on the Twins' chances in the near future. The Twins' rotation by mid-2015 could be Hughes, Meyer, May, Gibson, Berrios. Buxton and Sano could both still be in the lineup every day by sometime in May, and I think Arcia's going to turn into a terrific hitter and Mauer's bat will come back strong after the concussion is about 18 months behind him. This could suddenly be a very good team in 2015, and to write 2016 off right now seems kind of ridiculous.

 

And what I think this article kind of ignores is that while dominant relievers can come from anywhere (Wade Davis?!), there aren't any guarantees, and known quantities like Perkins, who also happen to be one of the 5 or so best in baseball at what they do, are still quite valuable and hard to come by. And Perkins' deal is insanely cheap, for what he gives you, and will continue to be insanely cheap for four more years. If it were a $12 million/year Joe Nathan sort of deal, then yeah, maybe save some money and take a bit of a gamble on turning up a great reliever somewhere else before you need one. As it is, though, he's costing you next to nothing in baseball terms, and some team would have to really want Perkins (like, a package centered around a near-MLB-ready, top-100 type of prospect) before I thought it made any sense at all.

Very well said.

 

I know its still early, but with the prospects coming up for 2015, along with the current crop and some payroll flexibility to fill some holes (I think Ryan did pretty damn well this off-season) I would be shocked if the Twins didn't at least "Compete" next year and finish a few games over .500 at the least, if things break right they could take a relatively winnable division.

 

Also don't forget getting a healthy/effective Nolasco back at some point is just like making a trade

[DaveW]

 

the Dodgers can readily afford taking on Perkins contract....

 

It's worth mentioning that pretty much any team in baseball can afford taking on Perkins contract. He is on pace for a 2+ WAR season this year, which makes his 6.5 million (which he doesn't make until the last year) a freaking steal. (NTM his 4 mil and 4.6 mil in 2014/2015)

[DJL44]

Thanks for bringing up the payroll room. The Twins have over $20M coming off the books and are currently underspending compared to revenues. They can add some free agents this offseason as well as mixing in the younger players.

[chopper0080]

Sorry but I couldn't disagree more. Perkins isn't keeping anyone down in his role, he isn't causing issues with the salary like Mauer and he is a 2 time all star. Sorry but Perkins salary isn't the problem on this team. If anything they need more guys like Perk who care and want to win. The Twins need less of the loveable losers that we have come to expect.

 

Trading Perkins isn't about keepnig anyone down or salary concerns, it is about rebuilding a franchise and closers aren't franchise cornerstones. Selling high on older players is good business. The fact that Perkins is on a decent contract only helps his value. The idea of holding onto "All Stars" and "hometown players" is bad business if they are not moving your team forward. Look at the recent history of poor decisions the Twins have made regarding their players during their string of 90 loss seasons. The re-signed Mauer paying him huge money to move from catcher to 1B and evolve into Todd Helton, they failed to trade Willingham who has only lost trade value since and they lost Cuddyer in FA. Now they have two valuable assets in Suzuki and Perkins and they are going to hold onto them as well and we will lose 90 games again next year. Baseball is about starting pitching and impact hitters and neither Suzuki or Perkins fall into either of those categories.

[TheLeviathan]

I know its still early, but with the prospects coming up for 2015, along with the current crop and some payroll flexibility to fill some holes (I think Ryan did pretty damn well this off-season) I would be shocked if the Twins didn't at least "Compete" next year and finish a few games over .500 at the least, if things break right they could take a relatively winnable division.

 

We're heard this too much the last few years and with bad luck set-backs in the minors it has even less credibility. Any belief that we're going to have that many guys up by June of 2015 seems really pie in the sky to me.

 

Perkins should stay because he's fantastic at his job, affordable, young, and a good voice to have on this team. Hell, I'd keep him just for the hope that his modern baseball sensibilities spread.