Alex Meyer

[drjim]

Interesting tweet from LEN3 today:

 

The more people I talk to, the more unlikely it is that Meyer will get a look this year. If anyone gets a shot, it will be May.

 

Disappointing, but probably not a surprise. The Twins clearly wanted to limit his workload this year to manage innings and with the team falling off probably don't see the need to push it. I wonder if he is starting to get a little gassed as well.

 

I thought he would be an ideal guy to call up and get some work as a reliever in August/September, get his feet that way, but it would also open the 40 man issue going into the offseason (i.e. if he gets hurt they would have to pay him all year and lose a year of service time).

 

Realistically, this probably takes him out of the running for a rotation job breaking camp next year.

[Jim H]

Interesting tweet from LEN3 today:

 

 

 

Disappointing, but probably not a surprise. The Twins clearly wanted to limit his workload this year to manage innings and with the team falling off probably don't see the need to push it. I wonder if he is starting to get a little gassed as well.

 

I thought he would be an ideal guy to call up and get some work as a reliever in August/September, get his feet that way, but it would also open the 40 man issue going into the offseason (i.e. if he gets hurt they would have to pay him all year and lose a year of service time).

 

Realistically, this probably takes him out of the running for a rotation job breaking camp next year.

 

I don't know that the bolded part is true, but I agree with the rest of your take. I think the Twins believe they have a future top of the rotation guy here, and are taking steps to help get him to that place. Since his shoulder issues from last year, they have moved very carefully with him, to protect his arm but also to further his development. Whether or not you believe this year is a lost cause, trying to protect and develop a future ace is probably more important than getting his feet wet at the major league level, this year.

[Brandon]

Also they are going to have lots of 40 man roster decisions to make this offseason. Why add one more spot taken to the mix.

[drjim]

I don't know that the bolded part is true, but I agree with the rest of your take. I think the Twins believe they have a future top of the rotation guy here, and are taking steps to help get him to that place. Since his shoulder issues from last year, they have moved very carefully with him, to protect his arm but also to further his development. Whether or not you believe this year is a lost cause, trying to protect and develop a future ace is probably more important than getting his feet wet at the major league level, this year.

 

I wouldn't say never, but it is rare for a starter to make his debut breaking camp in the rotation, generally more of a breaking in process. This will be doubly so for Meyer next year who will still be operating on innings limitations. Makes sense to start him slow and work his way to full tilt.

 

That is why I thought it might make sense to call him up as a reliever, but I certainly agree with you that protecting and developing him are the top priorities.

[naobermiller]

He had a nice outing tonight though. He even threw 99 pitches. I think that's the first time he went over 90 this year.

[drock2190]

Probably be ready for the majors when hes 26 or so. Big and lanky so its hard to find that release point.

[Pius Jefferson]

I'd like to see at least two or three five inning starts at the big league level this year. I think it helped Gibson and could help Meyer going into next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The more people I talk to, the more unlikely it is that Meyer will get a look this year. If anyone gets a shot, it will be May.

 

Agreed it's not surprising -- this has been my suspicion all along. Which is a shame, because they have to add him to the 40-man this winter anyway. Adding him now/soon and keeping him up until Sep. 1st would mean they don't use an option on him this year and will position him better to contribute at the start or early next season. It would give him an extra couple months service time, but that really shouldn't matter -- we already control him until age 31 (through the 2020 season) regardless.

 

The more troubling aspect of LEN3's tweet is the "if anyone" phrase -- if neither Meyer nor May gets a look this season, that will be very disappointing. Neither is young and both have done well in AAA. I think it is vital to know more about them, and see how they initially adapt to MLB, before the upcoming offseason.

[drjim]

Agreed it's not surprising -- this has been my suspicion all along. Which is a shame, because they have to add him to the 40-man this winter anyway. Adding him now/soon and keeping him up until Sep. 1st would mean they don't use an option on him this year and will position him better to contribute at the start or early next season. It would give him an extra couple months service time, but that really shouldn't matter -- we already control him until age 31 (through the 2020 season) regardless.

 

The more troubling aspect of LEN3's tweet is the "if anyone" phrase -- if neither Meyer nor May gets a look this season, that will be very disappointing. Neither is young and both have done well in AAA. I think it is vital to know more about them, and see how they initially adapt to MLB, before the upcoming offseason.

 

I'm leery of parsing tweets too closely. The mention of May here actually makes me think it is very much in the plans. Assuming he's healthy, May will get a shot and the injury now might be beneficial for him to start through September (innings limit reasons).

[TheDean]

Also they are going to have lots of 40 man roster decisions to make this offseason. Why add one more spot taken to the mix.

 

I'm not 100% on all the 40-man rules, but doesn't Meyer need to be added to the 40 this offseason to protect him from Rule 5 anyway? I don't see the harm in adding him in September and letting him get a few starts or at least relief appearances. Would hardly count for any service time (he's too old to worry about service time too much anyway), and you could keep him active so as to not use an option even if you shut him down late in the month.

Or are there other considerations I don't understand, aside from innings limits?

[TheDean]

I'm leery of parsing tweets too closely. The mention of May here actually makes me think it is very much in the plans. Assuming he's healthy, May will get a shot and the injury now might be beneficial for him to start through September (innings limit reasons).

 

I'm especially leery of parsing LEN3's tweets. He's not bad or false in his reports, it's just that he speculates quite a bit (I admit, all reporters do)...and then I start speculating on his speculation...and then it's easy to get abstracted from the reality of what's going on.

That being said, I'll gladly and shamelessly partake in the speculation.

 

As a fan, I'm hoping for both Meyer and May by season's end. By deadline, there could be three spots open in the rotation Correia (traded), Pino (replaceable), Nolasco (indefinitely DL'd? - this one might be a stretch). I see no reason not to give both a shot with those voids opened up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm leery of parsing tweets too closely. The mention of May here actually makes me think it is very much in the plans. Assuming he's healthy, May will get a shot and the injury now might be beneficial for him to start through September (innings limit reasons).

 

Yeah, my first though here was, "Oh, LEN3 said this? Hmmm..."

 

But, I don't think May is or should be on any innings limit. He's been one of the most proficient and durable minor league arms in all of baseball for the last ~4 years. He wasn't going to pitch more than 180 total innings this year anyway, which is perfectly reasonable for a guy who had pitched ~150 healthy minor league innings each of the past 4 years (which is about the max you can have in the shorter minor league seasons).

 

Pre-injury, they already passed May up for open MLB rotation spots for the months of May, June, and at least half of July by originally ticketing him for the Futures Game. And that wasn't to limit his innings, that was to keep him in AAA.

 

I'd like to see him and Meyer up before September -- I just don't put a lot of stock into September-only stats, at least not when formulating the next season's rotation/roster. In Meyer's case, even the month of August and a Sept. 1st shutdown would probably be more informative.

[drjim]

Yeah, my first though here was, "Oh, LEN3 said this? Hmmm..."

 

But, I don't think May is or should be on any innings limit. He's been one of the most proficient and durable minor league arms in all of baseball for the last ~4 years. He wasn't going to pitch more than 180 total innings this year anyway, which is perfectly reasonable for a guy who had pitched ~150 healthy minor league innings each of the past 4 years (which is about the max you can have in the shorter minor league seasons).

 

Pre-injury, they already passed May up for open MLB rotation spots for the months of May, June, and at least half of July by originally ticketing him for the Futures Game. And that wasn't to limit his innings, that was to keep him in AAA.

 

I'd like to see him and Meyer up before September -- I just don't put a lot of stock into September-only stats, at least not when formulating the next season's rotation/roster. In Meyer's case, even the month of August and a Sept. 1st shutdown would probably be more informative.

 

I certainly agree with you that I would like to see both up. I think breaking them into the bigs for a month or two is a great way to get them ready for next year. I'm pretty confident that May will be up, and as I said earlier in this thread that Meyer not coming up is disappointing, but not necessarily surprising.

 

Good point on the innings, I didn't realize he was only at 80 right now. Even if he pitches through the end of September no chance he blows much past 160-170.

[oldguy10]

Although not specific to this thread what is the status of both Meyer and May in regards to pitch count - both in specific games and for an entire season? And is it important to their future progress? For sure Bert and Kaat do not think so, rightfully so or not?

[gunnarthor]

Bummer. I hadn't realized that Meyer wasn't on the 40 man roster. I guess it doesn't make sense to burn an option year if he's on an innings limit but I'd also like to see him in the majors ASAP. I agree that if he isn't getting a cup of coffee this year he probably starts next year in AAA until the super 2 deadline.

 

I guess if I was in charge, he'd come up this year (along with May) but it's probably a good thing I'm not in charge.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Bummer. I hadn't realized that Meyer wasn't on the 40 man roster. I guess it doesn't make sense to burn an option year if he's on an innings limit but I'd also like to see him in the majors ASAP. I agree that if he isn't getting a cup of coffee this year he probably starts next year in AAA until the super 2 deadline.

 

I guess if I was in charge, he'd come up this year (along with May) but it's probably a good thing I'm not in charge.

 

Meyer wouldn't burn an option year unless he was added to the 40-man/25-man and then sent back down to AAA before season's end. And actually, he would have to spend more than 20 days in AAA while on the 40-man roster to use an option year, so in theory they could even send him down August 15 without using an option if they wanted (assuming minor league season ended Sep. 1 or whatever). That would pause his service time clock during his shutdown, and allow them to use the minor league DL if he were to get injured -- that's basically what exactly what they did with Gibson last August, although his option year was already used up anyway.

 

With Meyer's innings limit suggesting a Sep. 1st shutdown (which is fair, in my opinion), now is the perfect time to call him up. There is no real difference anymore in service time or options between calling him up now and him making the team out of spring training next year. So we might as well get some early MLB indicators on him, going into the offseason.

[TheLeviathan]

Disappointing, I wanted them to get their taste ala Gibson last year. It's hard not to see this news as likely setting the Twins' window back another year at least.

[drjim]

Disappointing, I wanted them to get their taste ala Gibson last year. It's hard not to see this news as likely setting the Twins' window back another year at least.

 

That ship probably sailed when Buxton and Sano both went down.

[h2oface]

I bet Jose Fernandez thanks forces daily that he was never in the Twins' system. You never know if they are ready unless you bring them up and give them starts. May and Meyer are no longer young. This is prime time for them now. Bring them up for a few starts each at least, and soon.

[ashbury]

Although not specific to this thread what is the status of both Meyer and May in regards to pitch count - both in specific games and for an entire season?

 

baseball-reference.com has gamelogs for minor leaguers. Here are the links for these two players:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=may---001tre&type=pgl&year=2014

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=may---001tre&type=pgl&year=2014

 

You'll see that Trevor was routinely being allowed to throw 90-100 pitches, until his last game which was in the 80s and he was shut down, while Alex has been kept to mostly the 70s until his most recent two starts where he got into the 80s and then the 90s. Read into that what you will.

[gunnarthor]

I bet Jose Fernandez thanks forces daily that he was never in the Twins' system. You never know if they are ready unless you bring them up and give them starts. May and Meyer are no longer young. This is prime time for them now. Bring them up for a few starts each at least, and soon.

 

May is on the DL so he can't come up.

 

The Twins have been extremely aggressive with promotions when they warrant. They currently have the two youngest pitchers in A ball and the youngest in AA. Last year, Sano, Buxton, Rosario (among others) were promoted midseason.

[TheLeviathan]

That ship probably sailed when Buxton and Sano both went down.

 

Quite possibly, though I think they are better equipped to be immediate impact players. Meyer/May may need more time to adjust just because they are pitchers.

 

May be the right move in the long run, I don't know....it's just disappointing.

[naobermiller]

Meyer throwing 99 pitches in his last start threw me for a loop. I know he was on a pretty strict innings and pitch count coming into the year after last year's shoulder issues. Could stretching him indicate that maybe his arm is doing better than expected and they're thinking about moving him up?

[gunnarthor]

Meyer throwing 99 pitches in his last start threw me for a loop. I know he was on a pretty strict innings and pitch count coming into the year after last year's shoulder issues. Could stretching him indicate that maybe his arm is doing better than expected and they're thinking about moving him up?

Good point.

[DocBauer]

The idea of Meyer not pitching in the majors this season is disappointing for sure. Not entirely unexpected, but disappointing. We may not be happy about it, but his shoulder issue last season, the missed time, then pitching in the AFL, just skews what should have been his normal development cycle. When the season began, we all knew there were going to be some limitations on his pitch counts and IP this season. Not to baby or coddle, but simply to work and develop him without doing anything to strain or re-injure anything. Universally, not just a Twins philosophy, there are accepted parameters in baseball for young arms to increase their workload each season in an effort to build strength and endurance. (I'm not recalling the percentage numbers at this point)

 

I think the Twins are handling this the right way. Stretch the kid out, build him up, but overtax him based on last season's availability. Personally, I disagree with the: "he's talented and pitching well in his first shot of AAA so bring him up now" idea.

 

Of course I want him up. At least for a taste of ML and Target Field. I don't understand all of the 40 man and option parameters. Thanks to everyone for their attempts at clarification attempts here, though I'm still somewhat confused. Lol Since he has to be added to the 40 man after this season anyway, if it doesn't mess with his service time, I'd really push for a September call up. Even if he wouldn't be ready to win a job outright coming out of ST next year, I think the exposure at the end of this season could be invaluable in his building for 2015.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd say it's probably a "surprise" to everyone who earlier in the year told me to, "settle down, he WILL be up soon after the Super 2 cutoff....". Oops.

[nicksaviking]

No offense to Neal, but Meyer suddenly getting his pitch count bumped by 30 at the same time Nolasco hits the DL and right around the time the Twins will start to listen to offers for Correia speaks louder than anonymous sources.

 

He's coming up, and he's coming up before August 31. If I was the Twins front office looking to move a veteran arm, I certainly don't want to give the impression that he's expendable because a top prospect is about to be promoted.

[drjim]

No offense to Neal, but Meyer suddenly getting his pitch count bumped by 30 at the same time Nolasco hits the DL and right around the time the Twins will start to listen to offers for Correia speaks louder than anonymous sources.

 

He's coming up, and he's coming up before August 31. If I was the Twins front office looking to move a veteran arm, I certainly don't want to give the impression that he's expendable because a top prospect is about to be promoted.

 

I hope you are right.

 

And I think you are.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd say it's probably a "surprise" to everyone who earlier in the year told me to, "settle down, he WILL be up soon after the Super 2 cutoff....". Oops.

 

There's a decent chance we still haven't passed the super two cutoff this season. Everybody has been wrong about the date.

 

"The Super Two cutoff used to stand at 17%, but got changed to 22% in the new CBA negotiations. This means that if a team wants to keep a player in the minors until after the Super Two cutoff, they will have to keep that player in the minors for even longer than before. Considering that the cutoff used to fall sometime in June — it varied from year to year, as the 17% cutoff isn’t tied to a specific date — it will likely end up being in July going forward."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/

[naobermiller]

So I was doing a little research on Alex, and I came across something odd. I was under the assumption that Meyer was on a pretty strict pitch count this year due to his shoulder surgery. But when I look at his game logs on baseball-reference (here) I see two games at 100 pitches and another at 92 in late April and early May. Are these accurate? If they are, is there any reason they seemed to cut him back after that?