Article: Jared Burton, the case for dismissal.

[Thor]

Mostly I just can't stand Jared Burton.

 

Really, that hasn't come out in this thread at all.

 

Burton isn't a great arm but I would bet $$$$$ that if he was DFA'd and made it far enough the Tigers would have him in a heartbeat. Probally the same with Matty G.

[DJSim22]

The grass is always greener, isn't it?

 

We don't know if Achter, Oliveros, Tonkin ,etc are better than Burton, who has been pretty solid most of his outings. He's had two 2-4 game rough patches, but other than that, just fine. An outing like today's (and most of his last 3-4) have been pretty strong.

 

As I say often... I'm as big a prospect guys as there is, but guys with track record are important. In fact, I hope some day that Tonkin can be as good as Burton has been.

 

We have no idea, and Tonkin certainly hasn't given me any reason to believe in limited innings. It feels like the AAA pitchers are like a back up QB for the Vikings, everyone loves them now, but will they when they are in the Bigs?

[The Wise One]

Mostly I just can't stand Jared Burton.

 

Emotion overides analysis?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I went to the game yesterday with some friends and there were several shocking moments - Mauer ripped a first pitch into center for an RBI single in his 2nd AB; Hughes WALKED A GUY; Arcia didn't swing at a breaking ball (then swung horribly at the next pitch); Mauer again was aggressive early in the count, tied the game with another RBI single, took second base and then popped up out of his slide and clapped his hands together as if his circuits had registered real emotion . . . then Jared Burton came in to pitch the ninth.

 

Well, of course we all were aghast at the prospect of Burton coming in to pitch the ninth - "we're only up by one, bringing Burton is like bringing in the go-ahead run to pitch!" etc etc.

Then he proceeds to strike the first two guys out convincingly, then get a weak excuse me grounder to end the game.

 

Gardy loves to reward players when they play well. I'm sure that if Fien had not given up those two solo shots in Boston, it would have been Burton in the eighth and Fien in the ninth yesterday. Each successful outing for a reliever gives Gardy confidence. He'll keep putting Burton out there in high leverage situations until Burton shows that he can't hack it. Ride the hot streak until it burns up. That seems to be how the manager sees it.

[Beezer07]

Having just turned 30 and having just read the comments in this thread (among others), I have to ask: Am I about to fall off a cliff? Is my life over as I know it?

[Mike Sixel]

Veterans>>>>>>>>>>>players actually drafted and developed by the Twins. That's how it looks from where I sit, when it comes to relievers. Which is weird. If there is one place you can save money, it is the back of the bullpen. If there is one place you can have 3-5 guys bounce back and forth between AAA and MLB, it is the bullpen. But that does not seem to be their strategy for some time now. I'd say it is bad asset allocation, and bad roster management. One of the beauties of using AAA/MLB pipeline is your abiliy to manage the 25 man roster better. This team does not seem to value that part....

[Mike Sixel]

Having just turned 30 and having just read the comments in this thread (among others), I have to ask: Am I about to fall off a cliff? Is my life over as I know it?

 

Are you a professional athlete, with years of statistical evidence showing a very likely large decline in your performance?

[Beezer07]

Are you a professional athlete, with years of statistical evidence showing a very likely large decline in your performance?

 

Nah, my evidence is all anecdotal

[Gernzy]

Really, that hasn't come out in this thread at all.

 

Burton isn't a great arm but I would bet $$$$$ that if he was DFA'd and made it far enough the Tigers would have him in a heartbeat. Probally the same with Matty G.

 

We should trade him to Detroit. I hear they have this Cabrera guy that's OK. He'd probably help our team out.

[Paul Pleiss]

Emotion overides analysis?

 

Concerning Jared Burton, my emotion is fueled by analysis. I don't like him based on the eye test, and I can't stand him looking at the numbers.

 

Jared "Just Bombs" Burton has got to go. Final answer.

[Brandon]

Paul, I would have agreed with you at the beginning of May but now that we are only 3 games back of the 2nd wild card and he has righted the ship by my stat test, I would rather see them go for it with who we have. If we fall out of the race then I think He should be one we consider trading but Burton is a solid reliever and solid is good. Not all relievers are going to be great. I think you need to forgive his first 10 innings and realize he has been just as effective as others.

[Beezer07]

Giving a guy a disparaging nickname does nothing to bring people to your cause, nor does it do anything to dispel the idea that you're blinded by an emotional dislike.

[SwainZag]

As much as I was all for DFA'ing Burton in April, the last 7 weeks he has been much better. In 9IP in April he gave up 3 HR, walked 8 while only striking out 5. Since then in 22IP, he has given up 2 HR, walking 7 and striking out 18. While he hasn't been overly amazing, his ERA has been much closer to league average.

 

With a solid track record the past 2 seasons and the fact he is owed 1.6M or so for the rest of the season, why rush to replace him? Sure any of the AAA arms COULD put up better numbers, but they might struggle as well. Now....I would like to see him pitch in less crucial spots than he has been, but I don't understand the vendetta.

[Paul Pleiss]

I'm not trying to bring people to my cause. I'm trying to find someone to outline a statistical argument for keeping Burton on the roster. I don't see the advantage of having a league average guy in the pen pitching high-leverage situations when he's been mostly terrible in those situations this season. He should wear any and all disparaging nicknames with pride that people care enough to comment on his continued presence in the bullpen.

 

He has been better lately, but better than bad doesn't mean good.

 

Give me the numbers. And don't just tell me to ignore his first dozen or so outings. That Jared Burton hasn't gone away. He's still there and he's going to make himself known and cost this team runs and wins.

 

I understand the guys at AAA aren't surefire bullpen winners, but give them a chance. Jared Burton's contact commitment is minimal at this point. I'm imploring the Twins to move for youthful upside, but I know they're not listening. Which means I can allow my emotions to come into play. I'm a fan. That's short for fanatic. Emotion is big part of that.

[Brandon]

Also I posted a blog on how Burton is just as effective as Perkins from an aggregate perspective despite the ERA yesterday. Relievers have a volatile record because they do not pitch as many innings. That's why I keep asking you to show where his stuff is deteriorating to the point he warrants a release. Here is the post.

 

http://www.twinsdaily.com/showthread.php/12166-Little-things-make-a-big-difference

 

Also I don't think were that far apart on opinion either. I don't think Burton is a long term option but he is here now. If his option vest he could be here next year too. But I don't see how he would be here beyond that as there are too many pitchers coming down the pipeline.

[Puckett34]

I've been all for trying to get rid of Jared Burton since last season, especially since the beginning of this season. With Burton pitching ok lately, coupled with his contract, I don't think he's going anywhere soon. I'm really not convinced there is serviceable replacement for him in AAA anyway. AAA success does not equal MLB success. You don't have to look much further than Parmelee for that.

[DaveW]

I don't get the Burton hate, he was damn good in 2012 and in 2013 his numbers we just fine and provided plenty of value (71 Appearances, 8.3 k/9, and the same WAR he did in 2012)

 

Since May or so his numbers have started to normalize quite a bit, the strike outs are back up, the walks are back down and for the most part he has pitched pretty decent overall. Over the past couple weeks he has looked more and more like the 2012 version as well. While he certainly won't be mistaken for an all-star, I think he has proven himself to be a solid/capable and overall reliable bullpen arm you can toss out 4 times a week if you need.

 

I think perhaps some of the "hate" towards him is he is not your ideal shut down 8th inning type guy, which he probably is not, however he is certainly an asset in the pen and is able to handle the 8th inning role just fine currently.

 

The bullpen is far from perfect, but Burton is pretty low on the list of what is ultimately "wrong" with it.

[Paul Pleiss]

Jared Burton's walks/9 have risen every year, his k/9 is dropping and his HR/9 is almost twice his career average. Do I suspect Jared Burton will regress towards being considerably more effective than he has been this far? Yes, and I think it would be bad business to assume he will continue to be as terrible has he has been, but I also believe that we will see him continue to age and regress, as should be expected. I'm not so sure, however, that his groundball rate (which over his career has been around 40% or better) will regress towards that mean, so far this season he's only getting 29% ground balls, which is going to lead to more HRs.

 

My dislike/distrust for Burton is for more than just the player, but also for the way he's been used out of the pen. I don't understand him continuing to get high or even moderate leverage situations. When the game is on the line and Jared Burton's name is called, it doesn't set me at peace. Glen Perkins hasn't been great this season, but his track record is considerably longer and more successful. I trust him. Maybe I shouldn't. But I do. The same cannot be said for JB.

 

I understand he's been better his last 10 outings, with an ERA for those outings just under 4, but just like when you're playing hot potato, eventually the music will stop. A ticking timb bomb explodes. That's Jared Burton.

 

2012 is a long time ago. His velocity is down a mile per hour (or more) from last season across the board, and closer to 2mph when compared to 2012. He's also throwing more fastballs this season than he ever has before. His O-swing% is down 10%, his Z-sing% is up 3% and batters are making better contact on his stuff overall. He's stranding less batters despite a fairly good BABIP of .260 so far this season.

 

I just don't see the upside for Burton.

[The Wise One]

I'm not trying to bring people to my cause. I'm trying to find someone to outline a statistical argument for keeping Burton on the roster. I don't see the advantage of having a league average guy in the pen pitching high-leverage situations when he's been mostly terrible in those situations this season. He should wear any and all disparaging nicknames with pride that people care enough to comment on his continued presence in the bullpen.

 

He has been better lately, but better than bad doesn't mean good.

 

Give me the numbers. And don't just tell me to ignore his first dozen or so outings. That Jared Burton hasn't gone away. He's still there and he's going to make himself known and cost this team runs and wins.

 

I understand the guys at AAA aren't surefire bullpen winners, but give them a chance. Jared Burton's contact commitment is minimal at this point. I'm imploring the Twins to move for youthful upside, but I know they're not listening. Which means I can allow my emotions to come into play. I'm a fan. That's short for fanatic. Emotion is big part of that.

 

When so many of the relievers have performed less than league average in the bullpen, the question becomes which player should go first. K/9 as a definitive stat? His is still one of the better ones for a Twins reliever.

 

No blown saves, only 2 losses.

 

What do the AAA pitchers throw that looks like it will work in the big leagues? Are their pitching performances as consistent as Burtons? That is are they good 2 games and bad one. You can argue on emotion as a fan, but it is hollow. It might be prefered to stretching truth for some axe to grind. It does makes one what the other motive for ragging on some one is .

[Seth Stohs]

Mostly I just can't stand Jared Burton.

 

That comes across very clearly...

[Paul Pleiss]

I look forward to taunting the whole lot of you when you're favored Jared Burton goes cold again and finishes the season with an ERA of 5, walking more than 4 batters/9 and costing the Twins another half dozen wins. If his numbers this season, the updated projections from steemer and zips, and his slow decline aren't enough to tell you that Jared Burton is on his way out, then who am I to be shouting it from the top of a mountain.

 

I like to stay clear of packages that go tick-tock, tick-tock for fear they will explode.

 

I hope you're all right about Jared Burton and I'm just an idiot trying to play with numbers. I hope he's a low 3ish ERA guy who strikes out a batter an inning and dominates tough hitters on a regular basis and figures out how to get lefties and righties out and takes ownership of the 8th inning. That'd be a swell thing to watch. But while I'm busying hoping against the numbers, I'll be feeling my heart race when he comes into the game, I'll be screaming at the TV everytime he puts a batter on base, and lambasting him on the message boards when he's less than useful.

[Seth Stohs]

Gardy loves to reward players when they play well. I'm sure that if Fien had not given up those two solo shots in Boston, it would have been Burton in the eighth and Fien in the ninth yesterday. Each successful outing for a reliever gives Gardy confidence. He'll keep putting Burton out there in high leverage situations until Burton shows that he can't hack it. Ride the hot streak until it burns up. That seems to be how the manager sees it.

 

I would say that I loved how Gardy played that situation. Knowing Perkins wasn't available, he let his best bullpen arm (Fien) pitch to the White Sox top hitters in the 8th inning, and then brought Burton in for the ninth inning.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Statistics aside, I'm betting the front office is looking at:

 

 

• Seth Stohs ‏@SethTweets 33m
  Jared Burton hasn't allowed a run in his last 5 outings (including today), 9 of last 11 outings.
   
   
  Jared Burton rhp
  2 years/$5.5M (2013-14), plus 2015 option
   
   
  And hoping they might be able to spin him into some kind of return.
  

I think you nailed it

[LaBombo]

That comes across very clearly...

 

Really? C'mon, Seth.

 

You're a knowledgeable baseball writer and a Twins fan. But please explain how a team that has lost nearly 300 games the past three seasons is best served by keeping two middle-aged, borderline middle relievers on the forty.

[DaveW]

Really? C'mon, Seth.

 

You're a knowledgeable baseball writer and a Twins fan. But please explain how a team that has lost nearly 300 games the past three seasons is best served by keeping two middle-aged, borderline middle relievers on the forty.

 

Burton had the third best WAR amongst the Twins RP each of the last two years. The Twins are very much in the thick of the division and WC race thus far this year, I don't see how Burton's age has to do with anything.

 

Additionally he is only 33 years old, people act like he is 42 years old and hanging on, plenty of pitchers and even more so relief pitchers pitch effectively into their late 30's and certainly into their "mid" 30's.

 

I don't understand the hating on MattG at this point either, if nothing else his results have been pretty damn solid (2.65 ERA) 3.03 FIP

 

Plenty of contending teams have MRP in their mid to late 30's, the reason why is because those pitchers have proven themselves to be capable relief pitchers over the course of a significant length of a major league career.

[DaveW]

Also, anyone trying to argue that the main reason Burton is still up on the majors because of his 3.25 mil salary this year is wrong IMO. The Twins have cut bait with plenty of guys who make money over the years, look no further than Nishioka and Kubel the past two years...3.25 owed this year (2 mil or so pro-rated) is not the reason Burton is still up, the reason he is still up because he has 2+ years for the Twins being effective and recently has been effective again as well. The fact is, the Twins aren't the penny pinching bad guys many people make them out to be: (see the two examples I just mentioned, along with the Hughes, Nolasco, Morales, Mauer signings as well)

[LaBombo]

Also, anyone trying to argue that the main reason Burton is still up on the majors because of his 3.25 mil salary this year is wrong IMO. The Twins have cut bait with plenty of guys who make money over the years, look no further than Nishioka and Kubel the past two years...3.25 owed this year (2 mil or so pro-rated) is not the reason Burton is still up, the reason he is still up because he has 2+ years for the Twins being effective and recently has been effective again as well. The fact is, the Twins aren't the penny pinching bad guys many people make them out to be: (see the two examples I just mentioned, along with the Hughes, Nolasco, Morales, Mauer signings as well)

 

Occasional inevitability for any franchise aside, your point is that the Twins are not rebuilding or are ok with paying bad older players good money? And this helps your case... how?

 

And in general your defense of Burton and Matty G is based on the Twins being contenders in 2014, right?

 

Walk me through that appraisal in detail if you have time.

[DaveW]

Occasional inevitability for any franchise aside, your point is that the Twins are not rebuilding or are ok with paying bad older players good money? And this helps your case... how?

 

And in general your defense of Burton and Matty G is based on the Twins being contenders in 2014, right?

 

Walk me through that appraisal in detail if you have time.

 

Exactly how are burton and Guerrier bad players? Burton has been effective as of late and in 2012/2013, Matt has been effective for sure this year.

 

And yes, currently the twins are contenders, if they find themselves 10 games out 5 weeks from now then I will likely change my tune.

[DocBauer]

I confess I'm torn in this arguement.

 

Really, it's very similar to arguements made about the rotation. Everyone is eager for the kids to come up, prove themselves, and carry us forward. Correia seemed like toast, and suddenly, he's actually pitching solid to good. And after three just lousy seasons, this team has a shot to improve, has improved, and may continue to improve. And building a solid and winning team also creates a better environment for the youngsters when they arrive...in my humble opinion.

 

To paraphrase the great Nuke LaLoosh: "Man I love winning. It's like, better than losing, you know?"

 

Loved Burton in 2012. Really liked him 2013 and didn't understand all the hate when his year was actually really solid except for one bad stretch. 2014? I'm not as certain. I know he's been much better lately. He's not really that old, and there is something to be said for experience. But I do understand Paul's frustration as I have also seen Burton just absolutely lay some eggs this season. And while I love what Guerrier has meant to the club in the past, and his numbers don't stink thus far, I also don't see anything that speaks of dominance.

 

Like the rotation, where I WANT May and Meyer up, but don't want to blow up a solid season simply for the sake or promoting youngsters, I feel the same way in regard to the pen where I WANT Achter and Tonkin to come up, be ready, and help the pen stabilize and dominate. But I have to temper want, expectation and hope against what is working now.

 

Its tough to see your team so close, and tantalized by what could be, and SOON. And I sometimes wonder if we aren't a little impatient when we should be a little more tempered. After all, this season, so far, is fun, exciting and tempting. Especially compared to the last 3. We aren't even to the all star break yet, and many have been calling for cuts and promotions from the Twins on down through the minors.

 

Personally, I say to give it a couple more weeks.

[DocBauer]

FWIW, I believe Burton and the G-Man are both gone from the bullpen next season. The Twins will do as they did a couple seasons ago when they signed Burton and Fien. They'll sign at least 1, possibly 2 more veteran guys to take a hard look at. Over the past 20 years or so, going all the way back to TK and Such, they've done a great job of finding quality relief candidates.

 

And they will open competition of that 1 or 2 along with Achter and Tonkin, and who knows, maybe Burdi and Hamburger, to help flesh out the pen.