wabene

We all know Rocco is costing the Twins a chance for a win, every time he fills out the lineup card or comes out to make a pitching change.  And don't get me started on his pinch-hitting choices.  So, put a number on it. How many needless losses are on Rocco, so far this season?

The Twins had not played a series in Pittsburgh that fans could attend since April of 2018, with the last series the team played at PNC Park being a fanless two game series during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The scheduling of this series on a weekend in early June at one of the best ballparks in the country allowed the opportunity for many Twins fans, this one included, to watch their team get shutout in a new and exciting destination!
My wife Sophie joined me on this trip and she got a nice (for me) or terrifying (for her) glimpse into our future when we were surrounded by scores of older, presumably retired couples wearing Twins gear at the gate awaiting our early Thursday morning flight to Pittsburgh. Our plans got pushed back a bit when our Delta gate agent got on the loudspeaker and asked for volunteers to take $500 per person to take a later flight. We were the first ones to take the offer and didn’t actually fly out until 12:30, but did so $1000 richer. Always take the extra pierogi money, friends. 
Neither of us had been to Pittsburgh before and while the trip was largely influenced by wanting to see the Twins play at PNC Park, I had heard from numerous people that Pittsburgh was a wildly underrated city and actually had a lot of appeal outside of the ballpark, and that proved to be true. 
The main things I knew about the city entering the weekend were that the local "Yinzers" speak with ridiculous accent, which had initially come to my attention during this sketch. I also knew that they liked to eat pierogies and sandwiches with fries on them. While all of those things were on display throughout the course of the weekend, we came to find that the city is also very picturesque. It was once the sixth largest city in the country which explains why it has such an impressive skyline for a city that currently only has about 300,000 people. It’s split up by the Allegheny and Monongahela rivers which meet to form the Ohio River, so you are never far from water or bridges and get some really great views.

When it comes to getting around town, the public transit options aren’t great. I would guess that’s largely due to the aforementioned rivers and bridges splitting up parts of the city and a lack of necessary connectedness, but Uber and Lyft were both pretty reliable. We took the bus from Lawrenceville, the neighborhood where we stayed, down to the Strip neighborhood and downtown a few times which was a good option for simple trips. The funicular at the Duquesne Incline was pretty cool too and only took about five minutes to ride to the top. Once you’re up there there are some great views (pictured above), especially at night, but not a whole lot to do except head back down. 
Pittsburgh is also the only sports market smart enough to have all of their professional teams wear the same colors. The Pirates, Steelers, Penguins, and even the Riverhounds in the USL, all don the black and gold. This results in a lot of cross-sport wearing of merchandise; for example there were a lot of Steelers shirts and jerseys at the Pirates game that didn’t look out of place. It seems like a great deal for fans; they can buy one black and gold shirt in their lifetime and fit in at any game in the city, but it’s probably not as great for the teams’ bottom lines.   
Friday night game
Friday morning and afternoon before the first game of the series I decided to throw on my Roberto Clemente shirt and blend in amongst the Yinzers. While I think this won me some points, it also created some confusion from the multiple people who asked me for directions or where they could find a bathroom and were met with my blank, helpless stares. 
Later on before the game, I changed into my Joe Ryan Grateful Dead shirt and became just another Twins fan jagoff. 

 
Ahead of game time we contemplated heading over to the Andy Warhol museum which is just blocks away from PNC Park, but decided we didn’t have enough time and that we’d tackle that the next day. Instead, we headed over to Southern Tier brewery down the street from the ballpark and had some beers with a large swath of Pirates fans listening to an acoustic guitar-playing singer banging out timeless hits like “Thong Song” and “No Diggity”. This was a pretty solid spot to have a few beers before the game, but it looked like there was no shortage of breweries around the park where you could do the same. 


 
About a half hour before game time, we strolled over to PNC Park and were able to get in pretty quickly. I had purchased seats up in Section 322 a few days before the game and the prices were pretty reasonable at around $25 a ticket. I like to get cheaper seats when I go to a ballpark for the first time as I expect to be walking around and exploring for a good portion of it. I feel most at home with the upper deck patrons at a ballpark anyways. These seats and really any section in the 300s near the third base line had a great view of the city and the bridge. 

 
Our seat neighbors for the most part were pretty engaged, but right in front of us, there was a group of girls likely in their late teens or early 20s that spent the entire game taking pictures of themselves and recording Tiktoks. This is not an exaggeration, it was the entire game. Just as I was losing hope in our youth, I noticed the group of girls to our left that were likely in their early 20s and were drinking beers and eating hot dogs and watching the game without a phone in sight. Let that be a lesson that there are not disappointing generations, just disappointing people. 
Some fun gimmicks at the game included the Warhol cam, which was a jumbotron filter honoring Pittsburgh’s famous purveyor of pop art, and the Pierogi race, honoring Pittsburgh’s famous Polish dumpling. Had we gotten a Michael Keaton-related activity, I think that would have covered the Pittsburgh Big Three.   

 
You’re likely not here to read about the game itself, and the Twins got shutout so there’s not a whole lot for me to write about on that front anyways. Joe Ryan pitched really well, the Twins hit a lot of singles but not in a row, and the home plate umpire was clearly doing a very bad job even from my seat in the 300 level. If you’re looking for a much more detailed writeup on the 3-0 loss, you can find a great one here.
The only thing worse than the result was that the Pirates' closer David Bednar, who is from Pittsburgh, walked out to “Renegade” by Styx for his intro music.  
One redeeming note: With legal sports betting in Pennsylvania I decided to place an “emotional hedge” bet on the Pirates moneyline so I would get to either see the Twins win or win some money. 15 bucks on the Pirates at +114 yielded a nice 17 dollar profit that paid for the jumbo 24 oz IC Light I had at the game.
After the game we were told there were fireworks, what we didn’t realize was that they would match the pyrotechnics budget of the helicopter Ride of the Valkyries scene in Apocalypse Now. To say these fireworks were a bit over the top would be like saying a Dinosaur Jr. show is a bit loud. We decided to watch them on the Roberto Clemente bridge since they were being fired off of a barge in the river right in front of the bridge. This seemed like a great idea until we started getting bombarded with smoke and actual fireworks shrapnel. Great view though!
Ballpark thoughts
PNC Park is as good as advertised. The sightlines are great from everywhere, the views are spectacular and it only has two seating decks which makes it really manageable to get around. The Clemente bridge is closed to traffic on game days which makes for an easy way to get there if you’re coming from downtown. The Pittsburgh fans are pretty dang good too. I was a little disappointed in the attendance for a beautiful Friday night in June but the ones there were very tuned in and loud. 
Going to a Major League ballpark for the first time always makes me consider where it ranks among the others I’ve been to so far. I have a hard time comparing Fenway and Wrigley to ballparks that were built in the last 30 years as it feels very apples to oranges. However, I would probably put those two in the top spots due to the joy and overwhelming sense of history one gets from attending a game there. That being said, I think my current top ten now including PNC, would be something like this:
1. Fenway Park (Boston)
2. Wrigley Field (Chicago, the good one)
3. Oracle Park (San Francisco)
4. PNC Park (Pittsburgh)
5. Target Field
6. Citi Field (Queens)
7. Coors Field (Colorado)
8. Kauffman Stadium (KC)
9. T-Mobile Park (Seattle)
10. Miller Park, it will always be Miller Park to me (Milwaukee)
Fenway and Wrigley are pretty interchangeable for me at 1A and 1B and so are Oracle and PNC at 3A and 3B, but it’s really all about personal preference. Wrigley is typically a more fun game experience with better sightlines than Fenway, but I like the architecture and quirkiness of the Green Monster at Fenway better. When comparing Oracle and PNC, they both have great views on the water but PNC gets the edge with the skyline and the Roberto Clemente bridge in the background and Oracle gets the edge on food and beer selection. 
The three I still haven’t visited that I’d really like to get to are Dodger Stadium in LA, Petco Park in San Diego (been to the park but in January during the offseason), and Camden Yards in Baltimore. 
Other Pittsburgh activities
My wife and I spend most of our vacations eating and drinking so while this section is titled “Other Pittsburgh activities” it’s mostly just going to be some of our favorite restaurants and bars to consider if you’re making the trip. 
As I mentioned earlier, we stayed in Lawrenceville. This was a really good hub if you want to be close to a lot of bars and restaurants that are walkable and cater to all ages. Of the neighborhoods we visited, we were definitely happy with our choice and it was validated by one of our Lyft drivers (shoutout David) who said we nailed it by choosing to stay there. Downtown had a lot of nice looking hotels if that’s more your scene and Squirrel Hill supposedly was nice if you’re looking for a more residential, quiet vibe. 
-Cork Harbour Pub was literally next door and was a solid home base/Lyft drop off spot for us. We ended up going all three days of the trip at some point in the day and even when we weren’t there at night, we got to pretend we were because we could hear it from our bedroom when we were trying to sleep. 
-Big Jim’s in the Run was a classic dive that naturally has been featured on Diners, Drive-Ins, and Dives. It was tucked into an odd, hidden neighborhood called Four Mile Run and is the most authentic Pittsburgh place we went to. I will admit that the food didn’t blow me away, but I would still highly recommend it just for the experience. This was also where I watched the final four innings of the Saturday loss and thanked my lucky stars that we explored a few more areas of the city instead of paying to watch the Twins get shutout two days in a row. 
-Dish Osteria Bar on the South Side was the best meal we had on the trip. If you don’t mind shelling out a little more money and have the foresight to snag a reservation (we had to grab one for 10 pm on Thursday) this is about as good as it gets for Southern Italian food. The pasta was perfect, the seafood was delicious, the drinks were great, and it was in a very nice, intimate setting. 
-I hesitate to even admit it, but the only time we ate at a Primanti Brothers sandwich was at the ballgame. I’m confident that a limited menu and a ballpark kitchen was not the best way to experience Pittsburgh’s most legendary sandwich chain but the capicola and cheese we got (topped with fries, of course) was still very good. I wish we would have made it to one of the locations around town and gotten the true experience but alas, I only have one stomach. 
-La Gourmandine was a great French bakery just up the road from us where we had a wonderful almond croissant and an apricot pastry for breakfast one day. It was a tough place to order because everything there looked so good, including the sandwiches. 
-S&D Polish Deli in the Strip was a good stop for pierogies and had some interesting Polish deli items to browse. 
 -Colangelo's was a solid pizza joint right around the corner from the Polish deli. I had a really tough time figuring out what they’re doing with pizza in Pittsburgh. Most of the places we saw or ate were similar to a Detroit style pizza which is fine by me, but then you have the unmelted cheese abomination of the Ohio River Valley style that’s served famously at Beto’s in Pittsburgh. I actually wanted to try it out of morbid curiosity but didn’t find the time.
-I ducked into William Penn Tavern to catch the fifth set of the Alcaraz/Sinner French Open semifinal while Sophie was shopping one day and that was a great spot to grab a beer and watch a game in the middle of the day. It looked a little more rowdy at night when we walked by however, so beware of that potential bro-fest.
-After the fireworks on Friday night, we wandered over the bridge into downtown and eventually settled at Emerson’s which was a good, hidden cocktail bar on the second floor. They had some really interesting cocktails and the food looked promising too. 
-Bar Marco was another good spot for drinks in the Strip that looked to have some good Italian food as well. 
-Pennsylvania Macaroni Co. was a huge Italian market that was fun to walk around if you like spending time in a place that has 40 different kinds of canned tomatoes. Think Cossetta’s in St. Paul on steroids. 
-After that dinner at Dish on Thursday night, we went to a bar called Dee’s in South Side Flats that still allows smoking and employed some bartenders with great accents. From what I could tell, South Side Flats and all the bars on Carson Street are basically Pittsburgh’s version of the old Combat Zone in Boston. In other words, this was an area I was entirely too old for, so we didn’t last long there. 
-Schenley Park was a good place to go for a walk in the city. The northern half of the park felt like being at a park that was in a city. It had an arboretum that we decided not to pay $22 for and had a couple weddings going on. The southern half of the park was a bit more rustic and while we may have gotten slightly lost in there, we did get to see a couple deer which was an unexpected surprise. 
-The Andy Warhol museum is very conveniently located only a few blocks away from PNC Park and was a good place to spend a few hours. It has seven floors that are broken into the different stages of Warhol's life and career. We later found out it’s half price on Fridays so that’s probably the time to go. 
Overall, I'd highly recommend making the trip out to Pittsburgh next time the Twins are in town, or just to see the Pirates. It's a highly underrated city if you know where to look and features arguably the best ballpark in the country that's been built in this century. 
Jump into the comments if you made it to the games this past weekend or have been to a game at PNC previously and have some experiences to share. 
 

The following is an excerpt from the 2024 Gregg Media Guide, a 35-page lighthearted collection of essays, player profiles, a prospect list, and more that I penned prior to the 2024 season. The opening essay was the most serious piece of writing, as it's something that I've thought a lot about over the last year, even if it might not make sense to everyone. I've decided to post it here, in case anyone else finds it interesting.
~~~~
I’m being serious. I kind of miss 0-18. If you are deep enough in the weeds to purchase the Gregg Media Guide, you already know that the Twins broke an 18-game streak of playoff losses that spanned from 2004 to 2023. During that time, despite their success in the AL Central (five division titles and a Wild Card berth), they were utterly futile. It was embarrassing.
But it was also kind of funny. And kind of remarkable. And you almost got used to it.
Let’s get the first one out of the way. Despite being a diehard Twins fan for my entire life, I’ve been known to identify myself as a bit of a sports nihilist. I don’t take it personally when the team plays poorly. I almost find it weird to root for the team. But I still love the Twins. I also love a good storyline.
One of my favorite characters in The Simpsons is Ol’ Gil Gunderson, a consistently down-on-his-luck victim of the rat race. No matter what job Ol’ Gil has worked himself into in any given episode, the consistent theme is that he’s not good at it and/or he’ll be screwed by the world in some way. It’s sad, but it’s also so funny to see how Ol’ Gil will manage to screw it up this week.
Admittedly, many fans of The Simpsons are not fans of Gil for one reason or another. Much in the same way, few Twins fans found joy in the Twins year after year fustily letting the season slip through their fingers. Well, some rejoiced in it, but many of those seemed to be more fueled by their love-hate relationship with the team, whether that be a disdain for ownership, analytics, or any other pet peeve.
It was like a clown car’s breaks being cut on the Audubon. You know it’s a tragedy, and people are going to be hurt, so you hope they navigate it safely into the ditch, but you also know it would be funny if 11 clowns flew through the windshield, in a shocking, horrifying, but hilarious way.
Beyond the humor of it, there was something remarkable about the streak. It had never happened before. Other things that had never happened before at some point: No one had ever hit 765 homers, no one had ever had 262 hits in a season, and no one had ever stolen 1406 bases. But then they happened, and that was special.
You will probably never see another team lose 18 straight postseason games—in any sport. It’s literally the longest playoff losing streak in the history of North American men’s pro sports. I hope you can appreciate that. They say that every day you can go to the ballpark and see something you’ve never seen before. In a sad and comical way, the Twins etched their names into baseball history and folklore.
Chris Hanel put together a terrific oral history and movie documenting each of the losses in order. He used win expectancy charts to explain just how improbable it was that a team could pull this off. It required snatching defeat from the jaws of victory several times, with many games in which the Twins had a win expectancy over 90%. I encourage you to check it out if you haven’t, or re-watch it in hindsight.
Around the same time that Chris’s movie was released, I wrote a 5000 word narrative about the concept of a streak that lasted 19 years. By my math, in the 18 losses, over 100 individual Twins played in a playoff game for the team. The general manager was changed four times, there were three managers, and three separate Pohlads stood as the face of the ownership group during that time. No Twin played in more than four of the seven playoff series, and five distinct cores of talent moved through the organization between wins.
It was special. Maybe not in the way you’d hope, but it was remarkable. And it only got more and more remarkable as each loss piled up. We could have seen an 0-20, and we were robbed of it.
Finally, I got used to the streak. Not in a Stockholm syndrome way, but more in an acclimation. It’s what I grew to see the Twins as, and many inside and outside of Twins Territory did as well. And so now it’ll take some getting used to.
It’s now feasible that the Twins could make a run. The monkey is off their backs. I saw them win for the first time in nigh on 20 years. It’s awesome. But it’ll take some getting used to.
Who knows, maybe they’ll be able to play the Yankees heads-up now, breaking that funk as well. Maybe they’ll have a playoff team that doesn’t always come with the “best team in a bad division” qualifier. But, maybe, they’re also just now a normal team with nothing special about them.
People paid attention to 0-18. In the same way, they paid attention to the Mariners’ two-decade playoff drought. People pay attention to the Rockies having never won the NL West. People pay attention to the poverty operations of the Athletics. But the Twins? They’re just another consistently mediocre to solid team now.
They sit among teams like the Blue Jays, Brewers, and Diamondbacks now. There’s not a lot to laugh at, but also not a lot of history. No one is going to be rallying the troops behind the plucky team with 12, 13, or 16 straight losses taking on the Evil Empire Yankees or Astros. The Twins, who have always struggled to break out of obscurity, return to the tier of teams that are just that: teams.
And so there’s an adjustment to be made. 0-18 is over. There could always be a new streak. It would be funny, special, and noteworthy if they went and won a World Series. The same goes for if they rattled off 10 more straight playoff losses and 2023 was a blip. But for now, they’re another mid-market team with a mid-market payroll.
I’m glad they broke the streak. I shed a couple manly tears as I sat in my office alone watching it on a 19-inch TV screen that I’ve had since they were on a nine game losing streak.
But I kind of miss it.
Thank you for ordering the Gregg Media Guide. I don’t take much seriously, but I do hope that it’s worth your time and money to read through this and have, at least, a few chuckles along the way.
Greggory.
(if you'd like to purchase the full GMG for as little as $2, here's the link, hopefully the owners don't fire me for this. https://greggtmasterson1.gumroad.com/).

With the recent good news that Royce Lewis it's just about ready to start an assumedly short rehab assignment, one's mind turns to what happens when he's ready to rejoin the Twins. You have to think that he'll be playing 3B at least three or four times a week and probably more, and we have Castro as a potential 3B backup. What happens to José Miranda in that scenario?
First, the facts. Miranda is hitting .276/.315/.457 (.772) with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 12 RBIs in 105 ABs. He has 16 SOs and 4 walks, (14.5% SO rate, 3.7% walk rate). He's better against LH pitching – .807 OPS – but still respectable against RH pitching with a .722 OPS. His defense at 3B, once a weakness, has improved to a little below average average, with a -2 OAA at 3B and a 0 OAA at 1B. His Statcast chart is not particularly impressive, above average in some things but very little red other than being on the 74th percentile in whiff rate in the 89th percentile in strikeout rate. In other words, the stats so far indicate a little better-than-average player at age 25 with about 750 at bats in MLB so far. Those latter two facts suggest that there is room for improvement to a solidly above average hitter who is an average or slightly above fielder, but those results are far from assured.
I think the Twins have to keep Miranda on the roster and I think he needs to play. His team needs quality RH hitters in the worst way, and Miranda is really the only reinforcement option. Lewis can obviously hit, Correa is a quality hitter, and both Buxton and Jeffers are streaky. The rest of them? Not much there. Margot and Vasquez are well below average hitters even if you only count Margot hitting from the right side. Santana can hit right-handed but is a black hole left-handed, and from a hitting standpoint should only start against left-handed pitching. Farmer can hit left-handed pitching or at least could in the past but he's nearing the end of his career and it's unlikely he's going to have a big pop during this season. he's also somewhere else next year. I think you have to keep Miranda around for his bat and hope his defense improves.
So where do you play him once Lewis is back to play 3B? I think the answer is pretty simple. Miranda plays 4 to 5 days a week, 3 to 4 of them as the 1B against right-handed pitching, a day or two at 3B for Lewis when he is the DH, and he can be the DH once a week, maybe twice. I would also look at him at 2B as the RH alternative to Edward Julien unless Rocco comes to his senses and starts playing Julien every day. Miranda was a 2B in the minors, he's here for the long term, and he's a better hitter than Farmer. I would suggest trying him in LF, but I know they did that in the minors and I hear it was an unmitigated disaster. So my view is Miranda needs to stay, play regularly, and do it in a combination of 1B and 3B. 
This decision is coming in is coming within the next couple weeks hopefully. What he is everybody think?

SO yet again  Baldelli pinch hits  for the lead off batter and the#2 batter in the 5th inning!!!????
 
you have your starting lineup for 4 out of 9 innings.
you pinch hit a guy hitting under .200 and an OPS under .500 for your leadoff guy, and you pinch  another guy under .200 BA and under .500 OPS for a guy hitting .354 &.928!!
 
Thsi SHi....  This CRA....  This STUFF  has to stop!!!!

So we've all seen the video by now of the Bratwurst almost plowing over Byron Buxton in Milwaukee. Let's face it, if the guy HAD bowled him over and Buck had gotten injured, not a single one of us would have been surprised. It would be just another day in the Life of Byron. Like, of course he's out for two months now. 
But the fact that he DIDN'T get bowled over signals a change of luck. It's a good omen. This is the year he's going to play injury free!! All hail Lord Byron!!

I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 

I read somewhere on Twins Daily that the MVP for the Twins in 2023 was depth. After losing a lead in 2022, the Twins added several depth pieces to their roster along with keeping Carlos Correa after it appeared that he would leave due to free agency. Adding to the starting pitching staff by acquiring Pablo López wasn't directly adding depth to the rotation, but adding a solid starter moved Bailey Ober out of the rotation temporarily, so when injuries eventually occurred, they had Ober and Louie Varland ready as the sixth and seventh guys to take the ball. The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor and with Byron Buxton's inability to play center, that depth piece became a regular. Correa's signing meant that Kyle Farmer, pegged as the regular shortstop, could assume a utility role and the Twins signed Willi Castro, a speedy guy with the ability to play several positions, as another depth piece. Nick Gordon had flourished in the latter part of 2022 and was another player capable of manning several positions. Finally, the Twins signed Donovan Solano late in the winter. He proved to be a vital hitter with the ability to fill in at three different infield spots. 
Many, including myself, lauded the front office for the foresight to be ready for the inevitable injuries and underperformances. As mentioned, Buxton never got to center field and only played in 85 games as the DH, José Miranda, coming off a nice rookie year was both disappointing and injured and only played in 40 games, Projected starters Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff both started the season on the IL and went back on the injury list later in the season. Every position player starter spent time on the IL, one rotation member (Mahle) was lost for the season before the frost was out of the ground and yet the depth (and reinforcements) kept the Twins above water and finally carried them to a comfortable division flag. 
So, this year seems to be totally different. While the Twins appear to have a pretty solid 26-man roster, they have only added a lottery ticket to their bullpen. I know it's only January, but the lack of activity seems telling. There hasn't been any speculation that the Twins were in on a substantial free agent. The club has announced they will be cutting payroll, perhaps to the point that any payroll additions would have to be countered by subtractions. There hasn't been a replacement added for either of the two rotation members who left by free agency and so far no activity to bolster the center field mix minus Taylor. It looks to me like the Twins are going to try to fill these gaps internally, a complete departure from 2023. 
I have belief that players on the roster or in St. Paul can fill those gaps. I think Austin Martin will be a capable outfielder with good speed and bat to ball skills. I think Miranda will come back and capably fill the role that Solano handled so well in '23. I think Brooks Lee will be a future star as soon as this year.  I expect that the current five-man rotation will be among the best in the American League. However, beyond those just mentioned, my confidence is not nearly as high. There will be injuries to the pitching staff and to position players. Most everyone on the 40-man roster will be on the major league roster at some point in the season. I don't see the proven depth to step in when the inevitable rash of injuries occurs. 
I guess the front office is gambling that a) injuries will be manageable and b) the internal options will adequately fill the gaps in the Opening Day roster. I am not so sure, but do understand how tough it is to acquire the help needed with the payroll constraints. 

Now that we've won, time to start thinking about how we line up the starters for the ALDS. Games 1 and 2 are Saturday and Sunday in Houston, 3 and 4 are Tuesday and Wednesday in MN, and game 5 Friday in Houston. Lopez is able to go Sunday on 4 days rest, Gray not until Tuesday.  Ryan would be next man up but hasn't pitched well lately and got bombed when he started in Houston on May 30. I think Ober is a better bet on the road, so is Maeda. Here's what I would do:
Saturday - Ober
Sunday - Lopez
Tuesday - Gray
Wednesday - Ryan/Maeda
Friday Lopez
Ober joins roster instead of Paddack or Funderburk (I say drop Paddack for Ober). Gives you Lopez twice, Gray in a possible elimination game, and gives us a better chance on Saturday with Ober instead of Ryan. Ryan pitches at home where he's much better. Thoughts? 
 

Andy MacPhail, a former Twins GM who helped construct the 87 and 91 World Series Teams once said his goal was to promote 2-3 players per season up to the majors to fill roles on the team.  A good farm system can do that.  So, with that in mind let’s review the previous drafts in the Falvey era, not to grade them but to see how Falvey. Levine and company are doing in developing 2-3 starters/ regulars (or really players who can stay on the roster all year including bench and relievers) a year. Below the starters I will include several who at least played a role of some kind and list if anyone else still has a chance to make it to the show. Let me know if I forget someone.  I am not the draft hound as others here.  
2017: was their first draft year and the players who are starters include:
 3B Royce Lewis OF/DH Brent Rooker SP Bailey Ober And that is pretty much it.  There are others who may still make it up for a role including Blaine Enlow, Mark Contreras, Calvin Faucher is with the Rays, and maybe Andrew Bechtold
This draft is a success as Ober and Lewis are a big part of the team now and moving forward.
2018: has many potential role players or players who can carve out niches but there are some who start for the Twins and others who contribute.
 C Ryan Jeffers OF Trevor Larnarch RP Cole Sands RP Josh Winder RP Kody Funderburk The jury is still out on Larnarch.  Cole Sands and Josh Winder are likely to be 7th and 8th man on relief pitching with the potential to get better.  Kody Funderburk is just getting started but is off to a nice start and looks promising.  In terms of others who may make it up at some point include DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Chris Williams, Austin Schulfer
This draft needs a little more time to be judged.  Jeffers is a starter and Larnarch should be.  If Kody Funderburk becomes a solid reliever and we get some innings 20-50 from Winder and Sands in the pen in each of the next 2 seasons I would rate this draft as solid. 
2019: we had the misfortune of drafting Keoni Cavaco in the first round which set the draft performance back quite a bit.  But it looks like we still did well in this draft.
 Matt Wallner (also drafted by the Twins in 32nd round in 2016) Spencer Steer Eduouard Julien Louie Varland Inn addition to these guys Casey Legumina who we trade to the Reds for Farmer, Sawyer Gibson-Long who we traded to Detroit for Fulmer just made his major league debut and Brent Headrick pitched over 20 innings up here this season and is on the shuttle with Josh Winder and Cole Sands as the 7th and 8th relievers Alex Isola is a solid hitting C prospect in AA and Matt Canterino is a top pitching prospect who is injured. 
I gotta say this was a great draft for them. 
2020: was a lost season and while we only drafted 5 players, we do have 3 prospects from this draft.
Alerick Soularie in AA, Kala’I Rosario in A+, and Marco Raya. 
I would rate this draft a success if one player makes it up and is a starter.  The best bet is Raya if he can stay healthy. 
2021: We traded our first 4 picks from the 2021 draft to be more competitive last year.  Petty for Sonny Gray, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Steve Hajjar were included in the trade for Mahle, and Cade Povich was included in the trade for Lopez from Baltimore. 
Festa is in AAA and is getting close to an opportunity at some point next season.  Christina Strand is now up with Cincinnati, Povich was in AA with a high strikeout rate.  Jaylin Nolin is a top prospect and Noah Miller is already a major league ready defensive specialist if he can learn to hit at all so he can at least be a solid bench player. 
I would say there are lots of depth players in this draft outside of Encarnacion-Strand if we get a few of them to contribute this can be a good draft.
2022: is too early to grade as is 2023 but there are many prospects from the 2022 draft who did well in their first full minor league season including Brooks Lee who made it to AAA and Tanner Schobel in AA. And the Twins were voted as having one of the top three drafts in terms of talent acquired in the draft in 2023. 
Overall, the Twins have consistently done a good job of developing players for the major leagues under Falvey.  I think the surprise is that they have not drafted and developed very much pitching, but have drafted many good hitters, who they developed for the lineup or trade.  I do see many promising starting pitchers down in A and A+ ball so it will be fun to see how that translates as they pitch at more advanced levels next year and so on.  I would rate the 2017 draft, 2019 draft, with 2022 and 2023 drafts looking to join them as the most successful and the 2018 draft is on the cusp.  2020 is an incomplete as COVID torpedoed the season.  The success of the 2021 draft will be determined by players no longer in the organization.  Do you feel like the Twins in the Falvey era are succeeding in drafting and developing players to contribute at the major leagues?

I just completed my 24th annual baseball road trip with my buddies Steve-O and TJ, this past weekend we caught a trio of games in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, home of the Minnesota Twins High Class A team the Kernels.   The Beloit Sky Carp won the first game we saw on Friday, June 23, 11-9.  Cedar Rapids then won the next two days by scores of 10-6 and 8-3.  Sky Carp, in case you are wondering, is a not-so-flattering moniker for Canadian geese.  I am by no means a baseball expert, but rather just an avid fan who loves to go to baseball games, watching and observing.   With my scorebook in hand, I make notes throughout the game of what I see happening on the field (and sometimes inthe stands.)   Here's a summary along with some thoughts and observations on how players on the Twins Daily Top 20 prospect list faired, along with some of the other Kernels "popping" in the minors.  
Current Twins Daily Top 20 prospects (after mid-May rankings)
#3 prospect - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez   Over the three games we saw...10ABs/2H/HR/RBI/4SO/4BB/SB - Rodriquez played CF the first two games and DH the final one.   Good athleticism in CF.  In the first game he showed excellent range getting to a ball in the LF/CF gap and then he non-chalantly flipped his glove for the catch and the ball glanced off his glove for a three-base error.  The next night was windy and with a rocket hit to CF he hustled back to the ball in time, but it hit off his glove for a triple (we thought it could have been an error, but then again it was windy.)  Showed some patience at the plate with 4 walks to go along with 4 strikeouts.  Has some of that "Wow" factor going for him with his swing (he's got "pop"), presence, and confidence.   I hope he can continue to mature and improve, he is the youngest player on the Cedar Rapids Kernel roster.
#6 prospect - P Marco Raya - 4th round pick in 2020 out of HS - He pitched the first game we saw on Friday and got off to a quick start, retiring 7 of the first 8 batters he faced.   Then an error (Rodriguez) and two unearned runs later, the Kernels were down 2-0 after three.  Raya got the first out in the 4th, but never finished the inning after loading up the bases on three consecutive singles.  His stat line was 3 1/3IP/4H/3ER/2K/BB.   In ten Class High-A starts, Raya is 0-1, 3.19 ERA, 35K/6BB in 31 IP.  The word I would use to describe Marco Raya is "efficient."  He started out the game dealing strikes and going after the hitters and was getting outs.  Then after giving up three consecutive singles to load the bases in the 4th, the Kernels made a call to the bullpen, which let the game get away in the middle frames (see Jaylin Nowlin below.)  Nothing "Wow" about his stuff like when I saw Brusdar Graterol pitch here, but Raya did exhibit good control and confidence.   They seem to be bringing Raya along slowly with 31 IP in ten starts.
#12 prospect - IF Jose Salas    Also acquired in the Luis Arraez trade - 7ABs/R/H/RBI/2B/2K/2BB/2HBP/1SB.  He played 2B two games and 3B once, with a slick glove, great range, with no errors.  On the season batting .166 with 61 Ks in 193 AB.  He is the second youngest player on the roster.  The glove is there, the bat is not (yet?)   Good versatility and speed.
#13 prospect - SS Noah Miller - 1st round pick 2021 out of HS - 9ABs/R/2H/2RBI/SB/5Ks.  Miller played two games at SS and was part of 3 double plays.  His glove is MLB ready IMO.  He gobbled up anything hit his way and was smooth as butter with his glove & throws, but has much work to do with the bat.  Miller is a switch hitter batting .208 (not sure of his splits.)   He had two RBI singles late in the Friday night game, otherwise he had tough at bats.  Out of the regulars playing offensively, Miller is the third youngest behind Rodriguez and Salas.  
Preseason Top 20 Twins Daily prospects
#18 prospect - IF Tanner Schobel (2nd round pick 2022 out of Virginia Tech as a draft eligible sophomore)  In two games batting leadoff and playing third base, 9AB/3R/3H/5RBI/2HR/K.  Batting .279 on the season with ten HRs and tied for the team lead with 46 RBI.  He's only 6 months older than Miller, but has got the bat and is a solid fielder.  I was surprised he dropped out of the Twins Daily Top 20 in the mid-May updated rankings, while Miller climbed one spot.  I can see him earning a promotion to Wichita before long.  Good stick & solid glove.  Very comfortable at the plate.
#20 prospect - OF Misael Urbina (signed as MLFA in 2108, just turned 21) - 13AB/2R/4H/5RBI/(2)2Bs/HR/3K.  Played two games in LF and one at DH.  Had 3 hits in Friday's game.  Adequate fielder batting .192 on the season.  I heard a lot about a high ceiling with him, nothing to write home about at this point (yet), hasn't taken off.  Still A LOT to prove.
Best of the rest
Jorel Ortega IF - 6th round pick 2022 (signed out of Tennessee after his junior year) - recently promoted to Cedar Rapids.  12AB/5R/5H/2B/HR/BB.  Played 1B,2B, and DH in the 3 games we watched.  He catches your attention when playing.  Batting .400 in 5 games since his promotion from Ft. Myers.  I like his game, he hustles and does things positively that you notice.
Kala'i Rosario OF - 5th round pick 2020 - Yay, another Rosario in the Twins organization!   Played RF for 2 games.  7AB/5R/3H/2RBI/2B/HR/2K/3BB.  Drafted out of high school in Hawaii, currently leads the Kernels in doubles (14), batting average (.279), and tied for HR lead with 12.  41 BBs to go along with 71 Ks.  Nothing flashy defensively, but very solid at the plate.  Possible OF promotion to Wichita if an opening should arise?  On a side note, during a rain delay during the Saturday game, Rosario was the ONLY player from either team, on the side of the dugout signing autographs for kids (and some big kids too-see pic below) for over twenty minutes during a light (and sometimes not-so-light) rain.
Ben Ross Utility - 5th round pick 2022 out of Notre Dame after his junior year - A clear fan favorite who plays everywhere, big blonde mullet (see locks below.)  1B/SS/CF when we saw him.  12AB/2R/3H/5RBI/(2)2Bs/HR.  Batting .235 on the season with 11HRs.  Fun player to cheer for, goes all out.  Made an error while in CF otherwise was solid, but not spectacular on defense.  
Andrew Cossetti C - 11th round pick out of St. Josephs - Earned a promotion from Ft. Myers in May after a strong start.  3AB/R/2H/2B.  Played one game behind the plate last weekend and is built as solid as a brickhouse.  Not Ben Rortvedt solid, but a stocky 5'10/215 lbs.  Seemed to call a really good game in the final game we saw on Sunday, and showed really good hustle legging out his double, helmet flew off and everything (almost Willians Astudillo like.)
Other pitching prospect notes:
I was hoping to see pitchers Cory Lewis and Zebby Matthews, who have created a bit of buzz this spring, but Lewis & Matthews did not throw.  I heard pitcher Connor Prielipp (2022 2nd round pick) was at the Twins facility in Florida for evaluation, but someone was wearing his number 47 during Friday's jersey auction and they said it was HIS jersey in their online auction site.  Mmmm?   I did see Jaylin Nowlin pitch in relief Friday and he got lit up to the tune of 2IP/5H/4ER/3BB/noKs.  Matthew Swain closed out Sunday's win allowing 2HRs on 3H with a K & BB in one inning pitched.  Ironically, the best pitching performance of the weekend came from starter Orlando Rodriguez who threw 5 shutout innings on Sunday. earning the win and improving his record to 7-2 on the season.  As mentioned earlier in Twins Daily, he was released after the game on Sunday.  Rodriguez is 5-7 years older than most players in high-A ball and I guess they needed the roster space.  Tough break.
If you make the trip to Cedar Rapids, the players are pretty accessible after the games.  They walk right out of the clubhouse past you, as does the opposition on the way to their bus.  There was only one other person looking for autographs with me after Friday's game.  On Sunday, fans are invited to go on the field as ALL Kernel players sign on the field after Sunday games for 10-15 minutes or so.
The Cedar Rapids Kernels won the first half of the season standings and are loaded with talent, especially in the infield (with depth too.)  It will be interesting to watch some of the names above and follow their development during the second half of the season and beyond.  Thanks for reading.

After a long, harsh Minnesota winter, Spring Training offers and a glimpse of green grass and the hope of a successful Twins season. The Twins’ time in Florida is like any trip to the Sunshine State—some visitors leave with a golden tan, others depart with bad sunburn. As the team prepares to head north, here are my winners and losers from the Twins’ Spring Training. Let’s start with the guys who got burned.
Losers
1. Kenta Maeda
Spring Training stats should never weigh heavily in player evaluations, but when a veteran pitcher like Maeda returns from 19 months of Tommy John rehab, his performance will be scrutinized. Despite a solid outing today, Maeda’s spring has been mediocre. He has posted a 4.91 ERA in 14.2 innings, issuing 10 walks, striking out 14 batters, and showing inconsistent fastball velocity. These numbers aren’t awful, yet with Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods-Richardson all seeking a spot in the rotation, Maeda’s grasp of the fifth starter role grows looser. King Kenta will need to regain his pre-injury form quickly or risk being relegated to a diminished role.
2. Trevor Megill
Megill’s arm talent is undeniable. His fastball consistently touches 100 MPH and advanced metrics show that his breaking pitches are competent. Unfortunately, the on-field results never seem to match the underlying metrics (much like his bullpen mate Emilio Pagán). Megill entered the spring with a shot at a bullpen role with the Twins, then struggled to a 10.80 ERA and 2.10 WHIP before being demoted to Triple-A on March 19. Twins fans will probably see Megill again this season as he will be one of top relief options available in St. Paul, yet it’s fair to wonder how many second chances Megill will receive.
3. Gilberto Celestino
2023 is the most important season of Gilberto Celestino’s career. That is a strange statement considering Celestino played 122 games with the Twins last season and will likely spend most of 2023 in Triple-A. However, given Celestino’s limited minor league experience (only 75 career games above High-A), this season at Triple-A is critical for his maturation as a player. The thumb injury Celestino suffered early in camp required surgery, putting his development plan on hold while he is out until late April. Missing one month isn’t catastrophic, but finger injuries can linger. If Celestino rushes back or suffers a setback, his long-term development will pay the price.
Winners
1. Edouard Julien
Despite all the praise that top prospect Brooks Lee garnered in Fort Myers, Julien is undoubtedly the Twins prospect whose stock has risen the most this spring. Across seven games with the Twins and four games with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, Julien is hitting .394 (13 for 33) with five homeruns and six walks. His advanced approach at the plate looks MLB-ready, mixing patience with power. The Twins’ infield depth and questions about Julien’s defensive home created a roster crunch that resulted in Julien being optioned to Triple-A on March 14, but Julien’s performance this spring shows that he is ready to contribute at Target Field.
2. Kyle Farmer
Farmer’s solid Spring Training—an OPS of 1.052 and four homeruns—has flown under the radar as health questions about Alex Kiriloff, Jorge Polanco, and Jose Miranda have dominated Twins infield storylines. The 31-year-old Farmer is a six-year veteran, so a good month of March doesn’t change his projected upside, but he is a “winner” here because he will leave Fort Myers poised to parlay his hot bat into important at-bats for the Twins. His infield counterparts Polanco and Kirilloff are starting the season on the Injured List, meaning Farmer will play a critical role in the Twins’ early-season success. If Farmer keeps hitting, the Twins offense will get a massive boost and Farmer could become a valuable trade chip to fill an everyday role on another team.
3. The Twins Front Office
There are plenty of valid questions about the Twins’ offseason moves. Will Joey Gallo rebound from his terrible 2022 season? And did the team need another left-handed hitting outfielder? How will the offense replace the bat-to-ball skills of Luis Arraez? etc. Regardless, one thing is clear this spring: this Twins roster is deep. Yes, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kiriloff are starting the season on the IL, however the Twins have starting-caliber replacements in Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Nick Gordon. Typically, exclusively DH-ing a Platinum Glove winner like Byron Buxton would wreck a team’s defense, but the Twins adding recent Gold Glove winners in Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo minimizes the defensive decline. And Bailey Ober, probably the odd man out of the Twins’ early-season starting rotation, has yet to allow a run this spring and continues to look like a fourth starter in a competent MLB rotation. Not to mention the prospect reinforcements waiting at Triple-A. All said, Spring Training has shown that this front office deserves credit for building the deepest Twins roster in recent memory.
...
Thanks for reading! I'm interested to hear your thoughts and your winners/losers of the spring.

After consecutive seasons of anticipation and ultimate disappointment, Twins fans find themselves in a position of uncertainty. What direction does S.S. Falvine appear to be heading? What changes await in this direction? Will the vessel come upon a World Series title in its journey? Or will it forever circulate the triangle of mediocrity?
These questions haunted Twins fans throughout the land in the early winter. Uncertainty surrounding the return of star shortstop Carlos Correa raised late autumn trepidation in Twins territory. Exhibited inactivity from Captain Falvey and Captain Levine in the season of advent sparked further discontent and disarray. This pattern of sightings was not unfamiliar to Twins fans, who had witnessed their fair share of underwhelming "impact pitchers," including JA Happ, Homer Bailey, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Matt Shoemaker. Fans slowly rose in arms, and the addition of outfielder Joey Gallo hardly appeased the crowd.
In mid-December, all hope appeared lost, as Minnesota's prized shortstop had signed a gargantuan contract with the San Francisco Giants. However, through a remarkable series of unlikely events, Minnesota reclaimed their shortstop, signing him to a long-term contract. Not long after, they acquired starting pitcher Pablo Lopez from the Miami Marlins to significantly improve their starting rotation. Unfortunately, Lopez wasn't without cost. The Twins were forced to part with Reigning American League Batting Champion Luis Arraez.
Minnesota will not only place their faith on the addition of Pablo Lopez, but also on improved health, to improve their starting rotation in 2023. While the addition of Lopez is significant, the Twins will also receive the services of Kenta Maeda in 2023, who had missed eighteen months due to recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Tyler Mahle, who missed the final month of the 2022 season with shoulder injury. A rotation of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda appears promising.
While the starting rotation appears improved, question marks fly high around the starting lineup, which will be without the reigning American League batting champion. They will look to sluggers Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to maintain good health and also to prospects such as Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and others who will see the field again after missing time due to injury.
The season ahead is a pivotal one for both Falvine and manager Rocco Baldelli. The ship has drifted more and more into the incorrect direction over the past two years. If it continues to drift in that direction, Twins fans must seriously question the competence of those managing their team. Can officers Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Rocco Baldelli pilot the ship out of the triangle of mediocrity? Or is it their fate to never leave?
We will know the answer in November 2023.
cHawk's ("Optimistic Homer") Predictions for 2023:
vs. White Sox: 7-6
vs. Guardians: 7-6
vs. Tigers: 8-5
vs. Royals: 8-5
vs. Orioles: 5-1
vs. Red Sox: 3-4
vs. Rays: 4-2
vs. Blue Jays: 2-4
vs. Yankees: 1-6
vs. Astros: 1-5
vs. Angels: 4-2
vs. Athletics: 5-1
vs. Mariners: 3-4
vs. Rangers: 5-2
vs. Braves: 2-1
vs. Marlins: 2-1
vs. Mets: 1-2
vs. Phillies: 2-1
vs. Nationals: 3-0
vs. Reds: 3-0
vs. Cubs: 2-1
vs. Brewers: 2-2
vs. Pirates: 2-1
vs. Cardinals: 1-2
vs. Diamondbacks: 2-1
vs. Rockies: 3-0
vs. Dodgers: 0-3
vs. Padres: 1-2
vs. Giants: 2-1
Total: 91-71, 1st place in the American League Central Division

There haven't been any exhibition games played yet, but all teams are in Spring Training and there aren't a bunch of free agents left to be signed. The Twins hope to bounce back from consecutive injury-scarred disappointing seasons and make the postseason. Here is my prediction for the 26-man roster that will play Opening Day in Kansas City on March 30th:
Starting pitchers (5): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda. All five acquired by trade from other organizations. All but Ryan have injury concerns. First alternate starter figures is to Bailey Ober, with Louis Varland an Simeon Woods Richardson also waiting in the wings.
Bullpen (8): Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar.  Alcala missed almost all of 2022 and it remains to be seen if he will be ready to contribute. The choices here for the last two spots in the 'pen are Moran (mostly effective last year with the Twins, less so in AAA) and Henriquez, who had a cup of coffee with the Twins after compiling less than dominant numbers in St. Paul. The choice of Henriquez is a pick to provide multiple inning outings from a bullpen member. Moran looks like he could take a step forward and be a late-inning arm, but he's not established. The last two cut (and two most likely to make the club) in my prediction are Trevor Megill and Danny Coulombe. Pitchers with options in the 'pen will most likely be up and down several times--that would include Megill, Henriquez and Moran and perhaps Alcala. 
Catcher (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers. Really no competition here. The questions going forward are how will playing time be split up and if either Vazquez or Jeffers spends time as a DH. The Twins have three AAA catchers with major league experience--Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco.
Infield (6): Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Jorge Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano. There are injury questions around both Polanco and Kirilloff. If either one is placed on the Injured List, Nick Gordon and perhaps Joey Gallo might get some infield time. Barring injury, it would be huge upset for someone else to make the team at the expense of the six infielders listed.
Outfield (5): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor. Gallo and Gordon might see some time in the infield. Buxton is coming off knee surgery and may be built up slowly this year. There has been much speculation about Kepler's future with the Twins, but he's still here. Trevor Larnach (also coming off an injury) will probably have the opportunity to play himself onto the team. If there is a disabling position player injury in Spring Training, I would think Larnach makes the club as a DH/corner outfielder. Also in the mix is Matt Wallner, who made his big league debut last year in September. 
There is a significant amount of change from last year. I am predicting that five players will make their Twins'  debut in Kansas City. There will be injuries and many more players will see time with the major league club. As many have commented, there is depth in the rotation and among the position players. There will be injuries and the depth will be tested at some points through the season. A lot of players will get a chance to show their skills before the season is over. 
There aren't many surprises listed in these predictions. Personally, I think that a nearly set roster is a good thing. I can't wait for the games to start and see what this group of players can do.

The 2022 Minnesota Twins looked like they were destined for success. They had great chemistry and were winning ballgames, they looked closer to their 2019 form than the disappointing 2021 form we had seen the year prior. However, injuries started to take place and the ballclub started to lose games. As disappointing as this was, we got to see a bunch of new prospects. Promising flashes from players like Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon had us itching for 2023. Now that opening day is less than 60 days away, here are some realistic player goals for some Twins Hitters. 
Byron Buxton 
Buxton’s career has always been riddled with health questions. He has played in over 100 games once, and that was back in 2018 when he played 140 games. The results were favorable as he won the Gold Glove and stole 28 bases. Last year we saw the best year of Buxton’s career, as he was named an AL All-Star, had a 138 OPS+, and actually gained some national recognition. The problem? He played in 92 games. If Buxton stays healthy, he is a consensus top-10 player and a huge part of the Twins' success.
Goals: Show you can stay healthy and play in 120 games, 80 of them in CF. Maintain an OPS of over .800 and hit 30 home runs.

Carlos Correa 
The Twins signed Correa to essentially a one-year contract last offseason, and expectations were set high. Correa struggled in the first two months, posting a .633 OPS. Was it the cold? The new home and clubhouse? Just a random bad stretch? Who knows, but he quickly recovered and played like a high-level All-Star for the rest of the season. Now that Correa is here long term, he should be one of the ultimate factors to the Twins success not only this year but in the next five.
Goals: Prove that you are worth over 30 million. Finish top 10 in MVP voting and be a finalist for Gold Glove. Help develop and mentor young guys like; Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien.
Jose Miranda 
Although he was never a top-of-the-line prospect, Miranda had a lot of excitement last year after his breakout 2021 season. Miranda was called up in May and, well, let’s just say he struggled. He posted a .532 OPS and eventually got sent back down to AAA. When he got another shot in June, he didn’t put it to waste. Miranda impressed in June, then impressed even more in July, and remained a steady anchor for the Twins lineup for the rest of the year. Miranda showed very promising flashes in 2022 and if he continues to develop, he should be a core part of this franchise for years to come. 
Goals: Show that you can stay at the hot corner. Prove yourself as a 4-5 hitter in the lineup and post a .780 OPS.
Alex Kirilloff
The former first-round pick had a lot of questions heading into the 2022 season. Will he stay healthy? The ultimate answer was no. Kirilloff has had constant injury issues, specifically ones with his wrist. If AK can stay healthy, he can cement himself as a key piece into the unproven Twins outfield. 
Goals: Prove that your wrist won’t be an issue in the future. Play in 100 games this year and prove that you have your power back by hitting 15 home runs. Post an OPS of over .780 and show that you belong in the future of this team.

Joey Gallo 
Joey Gallo was a star in Arlington, and he didn’t start to decline until his trade to New York. Some blame it on the pressure of a big market team. If this is true, Gallo could have a huge comeback season. So far, it seems like Gallo is enjoying Minnesota. If he can control his strikeouts and utilize the shift ban, he can be put back on the map for MLB stars.
Goals: Be the person you were in Texas. Be flexible on defense as you may see some 1B. Maintain a .200 average, have an OPS+ of over 100, and hit 30 Home Runs.
Nick Gordon 
Gordon was almost forgotten about as a prospect as some major injuries derailed him from stardom. Once a top prospect, he had a ton of upside, especially with his speed. Gordon got a ton of opportunities all over the field and proved himself clutch late in the season. Now with a guaranteed shot in the big leagues, Gordon finds himself with an opportunity to become a full-time big league player. 
Goals: Keep your OPS+ above league average and steal 10 bases. Prove to be more level at the plate: raise your BB% and try to minimize your strikeouts.
Royce Lewis 
Lewis was the first overall pick for the Minnesota Twins back in 2017. Lewis thrived until his 2019 season when he had his first down year. He rebounded winning AFL MVP in late 2019. Due to the canceled 2020 MiLB season and an ACL tear in 2021, Lewis had to be sidelined for two years. Finally getting back on the field in 2022, Lewis Dazzled in AAA and got a call-up. He rocketed past his expectations and looked like that first overall pick that we had seen prior. After suffering his second ACL tear in two years, Lewis is set to come back sometime in the mid-summer and has a chance to prove himself as a big-league player. 
Goals: Stay healthy through the 2023 season. Show that your 2022 stint wasn’t a fluke. Have an OPS+ over league average and a positive OAA. Show that you still have your speed and steal at least five bases.
 
These goals may be a bit aggressive, but I feel like these players have a lot to prove in 2023. Correa said he wanted to build a dynasty in Minnesota, and these players get to decide if that comes true this season.
This is my first blog post with Twins Daily, so please give some feedback! Keep your eyes peeled for 2023 Pitcher Goals. Thank you!

It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
Position: SS
Highest level reached: MLB
Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
Position: SS/3B
Highest level reached: AA
If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
-------------------------       
Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
Position: OF
Highest level reached: A
Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
Position: SS
Highest level reached: A
I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: A
“[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
Position: SS
Highest level reached: A+
A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
Position: 2B
Highest level reached: AA
If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
Position: LHP
Highest level reached: n/a
Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
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Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
Position: SS/OF
Highest level reached: AA
Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
Position: OF
Highest level reached: MLB
It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
Position: OF
Highest level reached: DSL
Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: A+
One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
Position: OF
Highest level reached: A
Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
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Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
Position: LHP
Highest level reached: AA
A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AAA
How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
Position: C
Highest level reached: A
I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
Position: OF
Highest level reached: DSL
Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AA
A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AA
Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
Position: 2B
Highest level reached: A
The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
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Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: A
A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AA
I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
Position: C/1B
Highest level reached: AA
A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
Position: LHP
Highest level reached: DSL
Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
Position: 1B
Highest level reached: AA
For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
Position: 2B/3B
Highest level reached: AA
A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
Honorable mentions:
Brayan Medina, RHP:
Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
Kala’i Rosario, OF:
Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
 

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out. 

The Twins will soon officially have a shortstop vacancy. Carlos Correa has informed the media (and I presume the Twins) that he will opt-out of the second year of his contract. One possibility, Jermaine Palacios, has been DFAed and claimed by the Detroit Tigers. The Twins have shown no tendency to use in-house options Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon or Gio Urshela as a regular shortstop. Brooks Lee hasn't been with the organization a year out of college and looked pretty rough on defense in the minors.
In addition, the Twins have shown a real lack of speed and base running ability. Finally, having a guy who is capable of playing center field in Byron Buxton's absence and filling in at the outfield corners would be ideal. I'm talking about a better hitter than Gilberto Celestino. 
So, who am I calling on to step up? Austin Martin, of course. The guy was formerly listed as the Twins' top prospect and he played shortstop most of the season in Wichita. Regardless of his ability to play short, he has outfield experience and the requisite speed to cover center field. Moreover, he has profiled with excellent ob=base skills and was among the minor league leaders in stolen bases. Martin has exactly the skills that the club needs to add. Martin will have a chance to show what he has to offer in the Arizona Fall League.
Obviously, Martin has a lot of making up to do. He hit and fielded poorly at AA for Wichita. He has slipped down the prospect ratings because of his performance and he hasn't found a power stroke. I don't hold any illusions that it would be a huge surprise for Martin to vault himself into  contention for an Opening Day spot particularly as a shortstop. I am saying that he has the particular skills that give him a path for quick advancement to the major leagues. It is all there in front of him.
A more likely scenario for Martin would be for him to impress sufficiently that he would be in line for a recall either as an infielder or outfielder at some point during the 2023 season. I will be checking the AFL results in the hope that Austin Martin can restore his prospect status and eventually be a contributor for the Twins.

Manfredball will be in full swing in 2023. No more shifts, a pitch clock and bigger bases. The Twins will need to adjust to the changes and they will probably have to adjust more than most. The larger bases will make infield hits and stolen bases more common. The Twins will need to find a way to get more speed in their lineup and to be better base runners. They have been dreadful running the bases and have yielded oodles of stolen bases and that is not all on their catchers. At the very least, adding players with plus speed will be needed and a renewed emphasis on elements of "small ball" will have to be done.
I am looking to 2023 because I believe the 2022 season is basically over. A large number of the Twins' top position players aren't playing (Buxton, Polanco, Kepler) and many viewed as emerging (Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach) aren't playing either. Carlos Correa has been an offensive disapointment. Add in that Max Kepler and Gary Sanchez have been playing at replacement player level and it is a near miracle that the Twins are still in a pennant race. They've had plenty of help from Cleveland and Chicago, but it appears to me that it will be a surprise if the Twins finish higher than third in the weak Central Division.
I think there will be enough talent for the Twins to contend in 2023. A bullpen that includes Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax will be a far cry better than the bully that began the season in 2022. Add in prospective starters Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle and later Chris Paddack with guys like Louis Varland, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Josh Winder and Bailey Ober ready to step in, perhaps there wouldn't be as many short starts and so much pressure on the bullpen. 
There is position player talent as well. Jose Miranda has shown himself to be a major league hitter with perhaps a ceiling of star, Nick Gordon has developed into a competent major leaguer with positional versatility. Jeffers, Larnach and Kirilloff showed glimpses of what they could be before they were sidelined by injuries. Byron Buxton played most of the season on one leg and yet was valuable. If only he could get his health right for a season, the Twins become a different team. If Correa comes back, he is a fine ballplayer at a crucial position. If not, the Twins have sufficient funds to upgrade the team (pitching staff or position plauers). It is obvious that there will be more injuries, hopefully not as much as 2022, and also that some players will no longer be Twins in the coming year. 
Circling back to the mark that Commissioner Manfred has made on baseball, with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in place, MLB is now going to recognize minor leaguers as a union. My fervent hope is that minor league players will get upgraded treatment in future years. Time will tell on that.

He's not a downward plane kinda pitcher, more like Cole Sands in that his whole delivery seems to happen down low. Louie Varland looks legit to me. When I saw his compact delivery, it reminded me a little of Bartolo Colon, who looked like a converted catcher. The tight snap from behind the ear, no big, loopy wind-up, is a style that works well for some good pitchers, like Grienke. The quick delivery and up-tempo pace will help him surprise some hitters, who are accustomed to a more relaxed pace. Less time between pitches means less time for the hitter to process the pitching sequence and predict the next one. That and the compact delivery also means less time for a runner to read the pitcher's move to home...or not. 
One thing that really impressed me was his K of Judge in the first. Got him with a beautiful diving change that caught the inside corner. He could throw a dozen of those to Judge, and I bet the guy still couldn't straighten that one out. Especially if he also can zip a heater high in the zone just previous. Point is, it looks to me like Varland can do just that. His command of several pitches is better than Joe Ryan's, not counting Ryan's heater, which is his one great pitch. Varland doesn't appear to have one great pitch, but he's got several very good ones, which bodes well. 
If his arm doesn't fall off, keep this young stud in the rotation. Twins have found themselves another good young pitcher. 

Our Minnesota Twins stand at 57-51 with 54 games remaining in the 2022 MLB season. Thus far, they've had an up & down season. They started out hot, reaching a record of 27-16 after the first 43 games of the season. At that time, pitching appeared to be the strength of the team. Since then, however, pitching has clearly made itself known as the weakness of the team. The numbers illustrate that.
Team Pitching ERA: 4.02 (19th in MLB, 10th in the AL)
Team Pitching WHIP: 1.24 (T-12th in MLB, 7th in the AL)
Team Pitching BA Against: .237 (13th in MLB, 7th in the AL)
Team Pitching ERA-: 103 (T-20th in MLB, 10th in the AL)
Team Pitching HR/9 Against: 1.24 (26th in MLB, 14th in the AL)
Team Pitching WPA: -0.06 (19th in MLB, 10th in the AL)
Those numbers, especially the Team Pitching HR/9 Against number, are less than stellar. The Twins knew they needed to address their pitching staff at the trade deadline, and they did just that. They acquired closer Jorge Lopez from Baltimore, set-up man Michael Fulmer from Detroit, & starter Tyler Mahle from Cincinatti. So far, these additions have shown mixed results. Tyler Mahle was good on Friday night against Toronto through 5 innings, but the wheels fell off in the 6th inning. Jorge Lopez blew a save in aforementioned game. Michael Fulmer, while so far not allowing any runs in a Twins uniform, has a concerning 1.5 WHIP in that stretch.
The Twins have also dealt with several injuries this season. Left-fielder Alex Kirilloff will be missing the remainder of the season. Byron Buxton has been on & off the bench throughout the year, as always. Royce Lewis tore his ACL for the second year in a row (ugh).
The X-factors for the Twins in the next 54 games, IMO, are as follows:
1.  The starting pitching. Currently, the Twins have Mahle, Gray, & Ryan in the rotation. After that there are question marks such as Dylan Bundy & Chris Archer.
2. The bullpen. Jorge Lopez & Michael Fulmer need to be big contributors along with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, & Caleb Thielbar in order to consistently close out wins.
3. Byron Buxton & Carlos Correa. In order for this offense to get going, somebody needs to step up. The bats of both Buxton & Correa have been cold as of late.
Now I will predict the rest of the Twins' schedule. I will organize their schedule by opponents & number of games against each opponent. Then, I will predict a record against each opponent.
Twins' Remaining Opponents:
 · Chicago White Sox: 5-4 in 9 games
 · Cleveland Guardians: 5-3 in 8 games
 · Detroit Tigers: 2-1 in 3 games
 · Kansas City Royals: 6-3 in 9 games
 · Boston Red Sox: 2-1 in 3 games
 · New York Yankees: 1-3 in 4 games
 · Houston Astros: 1-2 in 3 games
 · Los Angeles Angels: 4-2 in 6 games
 · Texas Rangers: 3-1 in 4 games
 · Los Angeles Dodgers: 0-2 in 2 games
 · San Francisco Giants: 2-1 in 3 games
Total Record over the Final 54 games: 31-23
Twins End-of-Season record: 88-74

Too many Larry and Sue Capital One commercials, I guess.
But I've been thinking: now that Opening Day is just eight days away, what's the one word that best describes your perspective going into the season? 
I'm writing as an eternal optimist, but I'm going to go with "intrigued." 
I'm intrigued to see what lineup combinations Rocco will try, especially at the top of the order. And I say "combinations," because there will be many. Last year, there were 149 different lineups in 162 games. Part of that was injuries, but flexibility in roster and lineup construction is a hallmark of this administration.  I'm intrigued to see what it's like to have Byron and Carlos hitting back-to-back, at least on occasion. I've been wondering, but haven't seen anyone note whether this is the first time that the top two players in a single draft ended up as teammates.  I'm intrigued to see exactly how tiny the Bermuda triangle between Buxton, Correa and Polanco is going to be.  And while I'm at it with the Byron and Carlos lovefest, I'm intrigued to know what the laundry bill is going to for cleaning the shorts of opposing pitchers if those two get on a roll at the same time, especially if Sano happens to hit one of his hot streaks at the same time. Not sure I REALLY want to know that answer, but sorta intrigued in a macabre sort of way. I'm intrigued to see if either Bundy or Archer is able to reclaim their prior highlights. I'm intrigued of what this notion of a Gray-Bundy-Archer-Ryan-Ober rotation might actually pull off.  I'm also intrigued at what looks a little like a hodgepodge of relievers, and how there seems to be different skill sets represented, and how they could conceivably turn into a unit where the whole is significantly better than the sum of its parts.  I'm intrigued to see how Rocco works with that 10-man bullpen. Some (many) of his decisions look wacko on the service (and get lambasted in the Game Thread), but my experience has been that very often when I drill down to consider the rest patterns, pitcher availability, the likelihood of actually winning the game at hand, and how things set up for the next day, there is almost always a logical progression. Doesn't always work, but it's logical -- that's the nature of the beast. And that's why I'm sitting at home on the Game Thread instead of being in the dugout. I'm especially intrigued with how Rocco meshes that bullpen with a starting rotation in which day-to-day consistency may be severely lacking. Each of the five starters (make that 10-12 by year-end) have the potential to be really good on a given day. Or really bad. As the self-proclaimed inventor of the bullpenning strategy after riding a three-man rotation and incredible cards from Mike Timlin and a bunch of guys I can't remember to the 1992 Northern Indiana Offseason Strat-O-Matic regular-season championship, I think it will be fun to see the mixing and matching. I'm intrigued to see how long the leash is going to be on pitchers, both starter and reliever, and which order other guys come up, both in terms of 26/28-man roster and 40-man roster decisions. That includes the guys on minor league contracts that will have to wait their turn. I'm intrigued to see if Sanchez can simultaneously regain his power stroke and become something more reliable than a cement block at stopping pitches.  I'm intrigued by Larnach. At my one and only College World Series game, about two weeks after he was drafted, he jacked a long home run, and I thought, "Oh, my -- this could be fun." While I'm at it, I'm intrigued by Kirilloff too. I'm intrigued to see how Lewis bounces back. I'm intrigued to see if Miranda is indeed legit and whether he's able to force the issue. And Winder and Enlow, etc. See three bullets previous. I'm intrigued to find out the taste of Killebrew Root Beer, and I'm looking forward to trying it at a Saints game in a couple weeks. I'm intrigued to see if, and when, they pull off a trade for a pitcher. This front office works under the radar, and I can easily imagine waking up some morning to a May Day present (and I don't mean just Trevor) of somebody's No. 2 starter that they got for Jermaine Palacios. Or a second present, when they re-sign Palacios after he's been DFAed by his new team and then trade him again! Okay, probably not Palacios, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pull something off when we least expect it, at the cost of only a lottery pick. I'm intrigued by how many of us will be in Cooperstown on July 17 to see Tony O and Kitty Kaat.  I'm intrigued by whether they'll go with the powder blue or the Dairy Queen red in Game 1 vs. the Dodgers in October. (See line 3 and the statement about being an optimist.) I'm intrigued by the forgotten man, and whether Kenta Maeda might sneak back for some late-season usage, either with a few starts or in the bullpen, where he's had some past success. (See previous bullet for a hint of what I'm talking about.) I'm intrigued to find out what a Godoy is. And whether we'll be waiting for him. So, "intrigued" is my word. What are you intrigued about?
And what's the word that captures where you're at with this team?

I'm seeing a lot of discussion suggesting the Twins may consider non-tendering Taylor Rogers. There's no debate about Rogers's ability or performance, but the concern seems to be whether or not he's worth his projected ~$7MM salary in his final year of arbitration (per MLBTradeRumors).
I believe Rogers is worth it and then some. It's not close. Non-tendering Taylor Rogers would be a huge mistake.
Below are the 22 free agent contracts offered to relief pitchers in the last three offseasons with and average annual value of $7MM or more:

First, note that $7MM is clearly not an exorbitant amount for a quality relief pitcher. On average over these three years, about 7 relievers achieve that AAV or more.
But how does Rogers compare to those elite arms? On a rate basis, Rogers has been worth 2.0 WAR/60IP. As shown above, this is matched by only 2 players: Liam Hendriks at 2.4 and Andrew Miller who ties Rogers at 2.0. It's the same story in FIP (unsurprisingly); Rogers's 2.62 is bested by only Miller's 2.16 and Hendrik's 2.17. By just about any measure, Rogers can be considered a standout among these relievers. In fact, he would be would be one of the very best RPs to enter the FA market in recent years. He's been that good.
There's more to like about Roger's recent performance too. His velocity on both pitches has continued to climb, reaching new highs with his fastball (95.7) and his slider (84). He posted a new career high in K% at 35.5, easily improving his 2020 performance of 26.4 and his previous best of 32.4. Only four RPs in 2021 can claim a better K-BB% than Rogers, and his groundball rate of 50.0% is a return to form.
All of this leads to a career best FIP of 2.13. In fact, only Josh Hader and former teammate Ryan Pressly finished 2021 with a FIP- better than Rogers's 50 (minimum 40 IP). I'd make a case that Taylor Rogers has been easily one of the top 5 left-handed relievers in baseball at any point over the last 4 years. On a counting or rate basis, only Hader has been better by WAR.
Projections like Rogers as well. ZiPS has projected him to be worth 1.1 WAR in 2022, his age 31 season (and 2023). The usual suspects are ahead of him: Edwin Diaz, Hendriks, and Hader as the only other lefty. These projections were prepared prior to the 2021 season, so it remains to be seen what the projection systems think of him after his season. On one hand, he did have his best year as a big leaguer. On the other, he did end his season injured, leaving a cloud over his status for 2022.
If he stacks up well in such elite company, how much is Rogers worth in the free agent market? It's tough to say, especially with his recent injury. I will point out that Hendriks and Miller, the two pitchers in the last three years with an obviously better free agent case than Rogers, combined to receive 6 years and $88.5MM for a $14.75MM AAV. All together, the 22 contracts above average almost exactly 2 years and $20MM, a $10MM AAV. Rogers is also younger than many of the names above at the time of their contracts, and he has a longer track record of elite performance than almost all of them. I think it's reasonable that a healthy Rogers would receive something north of $10MM annually for 3+ years.
Rogers's finger injury really is the only question here. We all know a healthy Rogers is worth more than his arbitration figure, but we don't know how much this injury will impact his game in 2021, if at all. Only the Twins and Rogers can know for sure, and we can only speculate until the day Rogers is offered arbitration, signs a deal, or not. And any team interested in his services for next year should be concerned.
However, it's worth pointing out two things: Rogers has been exceptionally durable through his entire career, and he may be be worth his arbitration amount either way. Look at the list of names above again. There's a lot of serious arm injuries in there. Betances landed a deal with the Mets despite him appearing in just one game the previous season as he recovered from his shoulder impingement and a torn Achilles. Trevor Rosenthal got two of these deals. He received the first after missing more than a season recovering from Tommy John surgery. The second contract came after he recently passed through waivers unclaimed.
Even if you think poorly of his prospects in 2022 due to injury, perhaps it would be a perfect time to work out a multi-year extension based around vesting options. They may not get a ton of value next year, but he would have time to make up for it into the future.
My point is this: Rogers is one of the very best relievers in the game, especially from the left side. For a Twins team desperate for pitching, replacing his production would be very costly in either dollars, prospects, or both, and there's almost no one in the league who could replace him anyway. It's worth mentioning too that he's smart, regarded as a leader, and well liked by teammates, media, and fans alike. Sure, his injury is worrisome. But in a similar way as Buxton, that risk is one of the only ways the Twins may be able to afford real, impact talent for this roster. If the Twins don't take that risk, there will be several teams that will, just as they have shown in the past.
Sign Taylor Rogers. You'll likely come to regret it if you don't.

Many people are down on Donaldson thanks to his good, but not exactly great performance at the plate this year compared with his $21MM payday over 2021 and still guaranteed for the next two seasons. The expectation is his legs have all but given up with him coasting into his mid 30s on a big contract as another aging star fading out. The thing is, his batted ball data says Donaldson was absolutely getting the shaft. Donaldson is actually having a career year in terms of the metrics. He’s annihilating the baseball with the best barrel rate and exit velocity of his career, he’s launching it at an optimal angle, he’s striking out less than he has since 2016 and still walking in the top 10% of all baseball. The expected markers say Donaldson should be performing at the plate like his 5+ WAR seasons of old, but the results just weren’t there. Is it luck, is it the shift, the lead plates in his shoes or high speed worm burners instead of towering fly balls coming off Donaldson’s bat?

Before we get into the analytics, what were Donaldson’s results compared to his peak years from 2015-2019 and his career averages? Looking at Fangraphs data:
  AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS BB% K% 2021 .247 .352 .475 .228 .827 13.6 21.0 Peak .276 .382 .541 .265 .923 14.0 20.5 Career .269 .367 .505 .235 .872 12.7 20.0
The glaring issue is really the batting average which drives both the AVG and SLG components of OPS, and there’s good news in regard to Donaldson’s results on the surface here. He had the lowest BABIP of his entire career last year by 10 points at .268 with his previous low of .278 coming way back in 2014 before he turned into the MVP caliber hitter he became. Donaldson’s BABIP was also nearly 30 points lower than his career BABIP of .295. There are factors which influence BABIP from running speed to batted ball type to exit velocity and launch angles and as hitters push into their 30s, sometimes their eyes and legs show it. Swing and miss increases, walks taper off, balls don’t pop off the bat like they used to and that extra time to get to first base turns one time hits and doubles into outs and singles. Donaldson’s walk and strikeout rates remained right at his prime levels so it seems unlikely his reactions and eyes have aged. Let’s look into the rest.

2021 vs. Peak years of 2015-2019 reveals line drive rates (17.1% vs 19.1%), ground ball rates (43.0% vs. 42.1%) and fly ball rates (39.9% vs. 38.8%) are right where they should be, but Fangraphs shows a potentially insignificant increase in pop up rates (12.9% vs. 10.6%) and drop in HR/FB rate (18.6% vs. 22.4%). Pop up rate increases and decreases in fly balls which turn into home runs can come from luck or be used as a signal a player just isn’t hitting the ball as well. Is Donaldson hitting the ball as hard as he used to? Yes, actually, even harder. Using Statcast data on Baseball Savant, Donaldson’s 94.1mph average exit velocity ranked 4th in MLB and his 17.4% barrel rate per batted ball event ranked 8th in MLB. Donaldson’s 52.7% hard hit rate from Statcast (balls hit over 95mph) was good for 11th best in MLB where Fangraphs had his 40.2% hard hit rate ranked 17th across all qualified MLB hitters using the much tougher Baseball Info Solutions algorithm. The bottom line? Donaldson was an elite MLB batter in terms of walk rate, exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate. He also had a near ideal 14.6% launch angle. Even looking into Donaldson’s average fly ball distance didn’t reveal any obvious changes from his peak years. Based on the advanced batted ball data and metrics, nobody could be as angry about the results as Josh Donaldson himself. He was hitting the ball like an MVP, but getting results which don’t even look All Star level. Plotting Donaldson’s batted ball data out against the rest of MLB…

 
It's clear, Donaldson is putting all but the other elite MLB batters to shame in the way the ball rockets off the bat. Donaldson’s numbers are all obviously heads above the top 10% batter thresholds. There aren’t any accidents when it comes to ranks… and about those ranks, Donaldson’s page on Baseball Savant has enough red marks (top 10% in MLB) on it since 2015, including this year, to make you think the website was broken.

That said, even if a player is hitting a ball hard, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’d be expected to produce at a high level. Hitting a whole bunch of 100mph worm burners isn’t going to do much for a player’s OPS. So how about those expected results? They’re impressive and Donaldson seems to be the victim of bad luck right across the board. If you’re still not into wOBA, .385 would probably correspond with an OPS+ or wRC+ in the mid 140s. For calculating xOPS, I used xBA + Donaldson's actual walks and hit by pitch data along with his xSLG.
  Actual Expected AVG .247 .266 SLG .475 .533 OPS .827 .901 wOBA .353 .385 Homers 26 30 Of course, some players simply don’t seem to track consistently with metrics. There are pitchers who routinely and significantly outperform or underperform their FIPs, for example. What about Donaldson? The graph below paints a very clear picture. His xOPS has typically been better than expected, but his xwOBA is almost always pretty close to expectations. Keep in mind that 2018 and 2020 were small sample size years for Donaldson. This past season was the first time in his career that Donaldson was way off his expected wOBA, and it was the first time his actual production was significantly below his expected wOBA.

The next item up for me is always the shift. According to Fangraphs’ data, Donaldson hit .289 against the shift this season, but his overall production against the shift wasn’t great at wRC+ 81 in a somewhat small sample size. It seems like his walk rate and ISO tanked. Since we are still dealing with quite a bit of randomness in regard to Fangraphs’ shift reporting and small sample size, I don’t think there’s much to take away from it. That said, Fangraphs showed a higher shift rate deployed against Donaldson than he’d ever seen in his career by a mile even though Donaldson isn’t strictly a pull hitter. Considering Donaldson was certainly effective at recording hits against the shift, I don’t think the shift is the reason for the lack of production.
Finally, how about speed? Well here’s one place where Donaldson is in obvious and serious decline. Being one of the slowest players in all of baseball can have a serious negative impact on batting average and slugging percentage. Back in Donaldson’s heyday, his sprint speed was in the 26.5 ft/sec range, putting him into a pretty solid average runner category. It’s dropped precipitously the last few years placing him as one of the slowest runners in all of MLB this year with a miserable 24.5 ft/sec. It takes about 4 seconds on average to run from the plate to first base. In 2021 Donaldson was 10 feet and 2 strides away from the bag when 2016 Donaldson or this year’s Brent Rooker would have crossed it. The gaps continue to increase on an attempt at a two bagger. Donaldson reaches 2nd base in his prime 17 feet ahead of today’s Donaldson. Doubles have to be no-doubters for 2021 Donaldson. This plays into defense, too as Donaldson’s range has fallen from average-ish to very poor this year. Fangraphs UZR indicates Donaldson was unplayable at 3B this year with a UZR/150 of -19.4 due almost exclusively to his fall off in range. Baseball Reference, as expected, graded him much better using Range Factor as the shift artificially hides how poorly Twins fielders actually perform by providing Twins fielders with more opportunities to field balls which would have otherwise slipped through the gaps.
So what was Donaldson missing from his production which he should have seen? Was it the missing doubles from Donaldson scrambling down the basepaths like a car running a dragstrip dragging two flat tires? Seemingly, no. Donaldson managed 26 two baggers; maybe a tick higher than typical career expected rates. Honestly, it seems like singles and home runs are what’s lacking. Looking at the hit spray chart, I counted 11 doubles which could very well have been home runs, depending on the field where Donaldson hit them this year. Baseball Savant’s expected home runs for one thing sat at 30. That correlates with how many home runs he would have hit at the average MLB ballpark given his individual, real fly balls. If he played all his games in San Diego, he would have hit 36 bombs. Surprisingly, Target Field seems to be a poor location for Donaldson this year with just 27 expected based on his batted ball data. Considering Target Field doesn’t typically punish right handed hitters like it does lefties with that tall right field wall, I’d chalk this up to a straight up fluke. It’s worth noting a few unlucky doubles turning into home runs helps Donaldson somewhat, but his iron boots would prevent him from wheeling around 1st to stretch that single out for an extra base so some stat lines are likely to drop off from his absolute prime, which is to be expected as Donaldson navigates through his mid 30s.
Let’s summarize this up. Donaldson his crushing the baseball and he had the worst luck he’s ever had in his career in multiple ways. From hits which should have been home runs to balls having eyes for pillowy soft gloves instead of green fields, nothing seemed to go right. His batted ball data is undeniably elite and he’s hitting the ball as well as he’s hit it in his entire career, but that doesn’t mean he’s not in decline. Seemingly chronic, frustrating calf injuries and age have sapped his speed to diminish his defensive value and undoubtedly stolen some extra bases or even a couple singles. The Twins are likely looking to move Donaldson this offseason, even if they have to eat some of his contract, but it may be foolhardy to sell low on a player who may well have a couple more 4-5 WAR seasons left. There are other DH options taking up space on the roster who might be less expensive to move and likely to produce less at the plate. If Donaldson crushes baseballs yet again next year, it would be unfathomable for the bad luck to continue and nothing would be crazy frustrating to watch Donaldson start a couple more All Star games wearing the wrong uniform while the Twins pay for it.
 
 

With the 2021 season just about wrapped up for the Minnesota Twins, here’s yet another article to talk about starting pitching and why dumpster diving or even mid-tier free agent starters are actually much riskier than the top free agent starters with those big contracts.
Conventional Twins wisdom is that big name, free agent starters are simply too expensive and too risky. Jim Pohlad is very skittish when it comes to long contracts and big dollars. The idea of “crippling” a roster also sends some Twins fans into a panic. It makes sense, after all, the Twins free agent pitchers almost never actually pan out for more than a year.
For this year, the Twins’ front office decided not to pursue an arm to replace Odorizzi, leaving a major hole in the middle of the rotation. Instead, Happ and Shoemaker were signed to contracts all too typical of the Twins’ front office. The cost? $10MM utterly wasted. That said, the Twins are absolutely spending ace starter money in free agency and acquisitions every single year and have been spending $30-43MM annually for those arms for 7 consecutive seasons coming into 2021. I even adjusted the salaries for players which were traded away… Read it and weep.
Median WAR = middle bWAR season performance with 2020 being multiplied by 2.7 due to the shortened season. Total WAR = Total bWAR over the life of the entire contract, even if the player was traded away. $/WAR = Entire Contract Dollars, Adjusted for 2020 / Total bWAR, Not Adjusted for 2020. The salary figures shown are not adjusted for 2020 so they can be viewed in proper context.  
  Med. Tot $                 Player WAR WAR /WAR 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Correia -1.1 -1.1 -5 6               Pelfrey 0.4 0.8 13.8 6 6             Hughes -0.1 5.5 11.9 8 9 9 13 8 7     Nolasco 0.5 2 24 12 12 8 4         Milone 0.8 0.9 8.1   3 5           Santana 0.5 9.8 5.6   14 14 14 14 1     Santiago 0.2 0.3 32.7     2 8         Odorizzi 1.2 4.4 6.1         6 10 18   Pineda 0.8 3.3 8         2 8 10 10 Lynn 0.4 0.4 25         10       Perez 0.1 0.1 40           4     Maeda 2.7 1.8 2.7             3 3 Bailey 0.5 0.2 22             7   Hill 2.1 0.8 2.4             3   Shoemaker -1.9 -1.9 -1.1               2 Happ -1.8 -1.8 -4.4               8                           Season Total 31 43 37 38.7 39.8 29.5 40.8 23
 
In fact, almost none of the Twins signings and acquisitions were worth it, including the starters who were actually “worth the money” because they still weren’t worth starting. For example, Tommy Milone only cost $8.1MM / WAR. That’s an A grade signing. He was worth every bit of the money he was paid, on am average season. But he still wasn’t good enough to actually want him in the rotation. What about Ervin Santana? We all know what a huge asset he was over his first couple seasons and the Twins got one WAR for only $5.6MM which is an A+ kind of deal. The big issue is he was terrible over his last two years, dragging his median performance way down.
Ace = 4.0 WAR+ #2 = 3.0-4.0 WAR #3 = 2.5-3.0 WAR #4 = 2.0-2.5 WAR #5 = 1.5-2.0 WAR I’ve also adjusted the median values for 2020’s short season. That’s the problem with dumpster dives and even mid-tier free agents. All it takes is a slight decline and poof, all the money is utterly wasted because you’re paying guaranteed money to a starter who isn’t worth playing.
Well, everybody knows big free agent contracts never work out though, right? Wrong. Big name, free agent starters are almost always worth it. This is for two reasons. First, they often perform at ace levels even if they decline a bit, but if they take a major hit or injury, they almost always bounce back as a solid starter in the rotation. The money is virtually never totally wasted like it often is on mediocre or low cost starters. Of the 8 front line free agent starters signed since 2014, every single one of them has been worth a rotation spot in an average year. Most are even good deals. Don’t believe me again?
  Med. Tot $                                 Player WAR WAR /WAR Future? 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Grade Lester 2.1 13.2 9.6 - 30 20 20 23 25 28                 B Greinke 4.2 17.9 10.3 - 34 34 34 35 35 35                 C Scherzer 5.5 41.4 4.1 - 17 22 22 22 37 36 35 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 A+ Price 1.8 11.1 13.9 F   30 30 30 31 32 32 32             F Darvish 5.6 7.6 9.9 A       25 20 22 22 19 18           B Corbin 4.1 5.4 8.6 F         15 19 24 23 24 35         A Cole 5.6 7.6 6.4 A           36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 A Wheeler 6.8 7.6 3.45 A           22 23 26 25 24         A+ Strasburg 0 0 Inf F           24 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 27 F- *The summary is updated to reflect the addition of Strasburg to the chart. I decided against adding Bauer. Bauer doesn't have a long term contract, and part of the reason FA ace caliber pitchers are a low risk is a single lost season is easy to overcome. Among the 9 listed starters, only 3 have lost an entire season (Price x1.5, Darvish, Strasburg x2). Of the 38 seasons on the contracts from the 9 starters, 4.5 seasons have been lost. A risk of a starter losing a season is approximately 10% per contract season.
Right now, Corbin and Strasburg both look like a bad deals, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they rebounded. If you look at those contracts, something really stands out to me. Only Strasburg has played poorly enough so the team who signed them wouldn’t have wanted in the rotation and 6 of the 8 are bonefide ace level pitchers on their average season. Even David Price with all his injuries and down performance is worth trotting out there. Also, 7 of 8 of those front line starters have been absolutely C or better signings. Here’s how I’d arbitrarily grade signings based on the dollars spent per WAR.
$16MM+ = F- $14-16MM = F $12-14MM = D $10-12MM = C $9-10MM = B $6-9MM = A 0-6MM = A+ To sum it up, the scary big contracts for front line starters almost always work out over the life of the contract, and even when they don’t work out exactly as intended, the pitchers are almost always worth running out there every 5 days as part of the rotation. However, the low end and middle of the rotation arms are almost never worth it based on nearly a decade of track record by the Twins and over a dozen such starting pitchers. Considering the Twins absolutely do not need any #4-5 starters, the front office also needs to stop wasting money with their annual dumpster dive, refocus and acquire top pitching talent. After all, it’d barely cost more on an annual basis to replace the typical free agent signings they’ve been wasting money on to sign two top of the rotation arms as they’re available.