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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    Probably true in the case of Ray, but the strategy of late FA signings did backfire on the Twins here, and remains questionable for fielding a playoff team
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    Right? No 25-year-old starting pitching legends defecting from Cuba that hate the Yankees?
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    I think bean has revealed the sad truth here
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    Yes, the top ten is looking loaded. Edit: Cavaco's OPS might be .649, but I doubt his SLG is, with 11 XBH in 50 games
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    How realistic is Palacios being a future starting SS? And how soon? Among the shortstop-ish players and prospects, it seems the refrain is that they should not be there long term (Polanco, Lewis, Martin, Gordon...) But that doesn't seem to be the case with Palacios.
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    I agree, and RC and wOBA do better. Even more extreme than your example is the overweighting of HR in OPS. One can be a slumping Sano. and have a good 470 SLG with an unplayable 280 OBP. The resulting 750 OPS may look average, but too many outs makes this hitter a weak spot in the lineup
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    If we attached these OPS+ to specific position averages, my guess is Sano falls to below average, but Jeffers and Astudillo rise to above average? It certainly seems like today's OPS averages are lower than 2006, which meets the eye test
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    Thanks for this. This look does also offer some hope, if we move Polanco back to SS. One could see a lineup with: Sano - Garver + Kiriloff ? Arraez + Donaldson + Polanco + Larnach ? Buxton + Kepler - That's 5 plus bats, 2 unknown youths, and cross your fingers on Sano and Kepler finding 2019 again. So it could be competitive, or even good, without having to add free agents
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    First, this whole comment is great in both vision and detail. Second, a note on these two items in particular. Your point about risk is well taken here. To compete with teams that can spend twice what the Twins can, they have to have luck not just in drafting (Buxton) and in comebacks (Pineda), but ALSO in injuries and in development of those same players. This means they have to buy lotto tickets like a Buxton contract or a Pineda contract (or Sano or Kepler or Polanco from past years) in order to make it to the top. Which may seem obvious to some of you. But it wasn't obvious to me, until LA Vikes Fan said it out loud.
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    Buxton and Berrios: trade neither and retool or trade both and rebuild. If both, the Padres better have quite the offer
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    I know we weren't going to get much for Robles, but to leave him out there for a thirty-pitch inning? There had to be a smarter way to lose than that
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    To me, this means he had a successful audition for the 2022 club, and now on to auditioning others and fixing Sano
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    I think good defense is extremely valuable, and I think this strategy would help us to another quick exit were we to make the playoffs, BUT I am afraid this is the best way for the Twins to maximize their assets and save all surplus cash and talent for the rotation.
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    He would at least be the busy side of a platoon, but then who is the other side? What does that look like? An outfielder that hits lefties well enough to be in the lineup, can defend when he's out there, but hits righties poorly enough to use Kepler instead? That's a specific pedigree, and maybe not useful enough for a roster spot. Platooning is how you make do with the roster you have. It's a real hard way to build a roster. As to whether better development is to blame, that's hard to know. But the ease with which effective staffs keep all the Twins off the bases is worrisome
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    It's winter of 2020: you're about to turn 22 you just had a rough offensive season in A ball your minor league competition was the first overall pick and fall league MVP the big league club signs a former MVP to a 4-year contract to play your position, and the minor league season gets cancelled Fast forward to summer of 2021: your minor league competition is out for the season the struggling big league club needs to trade expensive, useful position players to allow them to buy next year's starting rotation, and the guy blocking you is top of that list you lapped the league in AA, and you make an historic, 3-HR debut in AAA on the day you turn 23 Talk about seizing an opportunity
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    I said it at the time, and will say it again. The ability to make contact and get on base needs to become a higher priority for the Twins. Yes, it's nice to hit home runs like the big boys, but contact is the irreplaceable offensive skill
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    Seems accurate, if relatively brutal. No obvious breakouts waiting to step in.
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Among committed 2022 salaries to trade out of, Sano is the obvious choice. Beyond that, you are starting to trade away pieces that you need to be competitive. So, the question becomes, do you: - trade Donaldson, sign Berrios and Buxton, and hope that 2023 dawns with 2 starter prospects having proven worthy, OR - keep Donaldson, stay in arb with Berrios and Buxton, and buy one amazing starter and take your championship shot before everyone becomes a free agent? - surprise birthday pony option 3: increase payroll by $20M I can't see option 2 being a good idea, unless you think the White Sox are frauds
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    So excited that the Twins are building something everyone wants to be a part of. Sigh
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    Got nothing lol
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    The 2019 Stashak is nowhere to be found. And Rocco knows it, as he has him pitching once a week
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    One benefit of a year like this is we can now start to see some of these prospects debut. Some hard choices probably have to be made about which of them have a future in the bullpen, because that need is now
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    I wonder if the Twins themselves agree. Dobnak has again shown he belongs in the rotation, leaving a spot open for an effective long man
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    Another option, which the late minor league start has complicated: Use one of the starter prospects, probably Duran, as a short reliever for this season. Yes, I know it has risks. But it alleviates the crowding of the 40-man and of the bullpen with unusable arms. And it's better than trading them. Starting pitching depth was supposed to be a thing we have, right? We always intended to need more relievers. Well, it's not convenient, but time to see what Law, Hamilton, Gibaut can do. And another thing: not all analytics-driven strategies work. Pulling your starters when they struggle in the fourth or fifth may need to be re-evaluated. Especially when the quality of pitcher available is so far below the starting corps.
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    The playoff losing streak, the 2019 explosion, the disappointing encore last year, the White Sox' spending spree, and their own offseason moves add up to a lot of pressure. Good. I'd rather them have 140 games to figure out how to play to high expectations than just the three in October.
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