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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. Pun. I do not think that word means what you think it means.
  2. At the beginning of this season, no way. At the end of this season, possibly.
  3. Either the Twins have the greatest farm system ever, or you're getting fooled by park effects on top of bad pitching on top of too old vs level for real prospectdom.
  4. You are are missing the punchline. First, Cholowsky has to drop, which he probably won't, and Emerson is the next best pick. But the horrifying thing missed here is that the Twins are said to be in on 5'8 OF Drew Burress if they don't get Cholowsky. Nobody with Burress' profile has succeeded in this century. His profile being OF, 5'8 or shorter, and right-handed. A number have been taken in the first round, and they all struggle with major league right handed pitching. Burress is projected anywhere from 8 to 20, and yet the Twins might take him 3rd. This is not how to rebuild, I don't care if you save a million or more in contract that you can put to your next pick. The Twins don't draft well enough to apply that money appropriately.
  5. 3.86 is not a good BB/9 (Gomez). H/9 are due in part to luck, but BBs not so. I'd be shocked if a Rogers could bring anything other than an open roster. Would you get more for Clemens than he helps you stabilize the long road back? Getting rid of Larnach saves $1.5 million, so trading him makes sense.
  6. None of these numbers jump off the page for a 22 yr old facing low A batters. Without a spike in numbers vs higher competition, his only hope might be as a reliever someday.
  7. SMH. He's repeating the level. Wake me up when he truly makes progress.
  8. Andrew Fisher has a 33% K rate. Which, because you asked the question, means he'll strike out on average five times per MLB game. Should be the first thing people look at wrt prospects, but alas...
  9. If he can be salvaged, AAA is where to do it. He certainly didn't learn anything helpful there (he didn't have time before hitting bombs), so it's pretty much a waste. I'd keep him down. The combo of hitting a million HRs and being the first pick in the draft will get you a little bit in trade. Bring him up, and he's just a bad major leaguer.
  10. Called it. Watch him succeed now, but we needed to get rid of him in a year there was never a chance to win. The brilliance of it all is blinding.
  11. There's likely no win for the Twins in any scenario except the one where he's back before the trade deadline, and they get something good for him. which is somewhat questionable given the injury and their lack of ability to recognize and bargain for prospect talent. Foremost, the only possibility of Jeffers continuing on with the Twins is through the qualifying offer which overpays him for one year so that he doesn't have to be saddled with costing his new team a first round pick (which decreases his $$$). You can't do that yesterday, only in mid-November. Is that the best thing to do for $23 million, sign Ryan Jeffers, knowing he won't be part of the team after 2027? You hope to get a compensation pick by extending him the offer and having him choose another team, but there's a real danger he takes it, and you've just spent $23 million that won't help you when you might realistically be looking to compete. So, trade him by Aug 4. You'll (hopefully) get better than what a compensation pick would net you on average, and you don't carry the risk of using $23M on an aging catcher who won't be here after 2027. Of course it all changes if the injury scares all teams away, and it might. The swing does not come back immediately.
  12. Not only do you need to trade Ryan, you need to do it asap. Injury risk is high, and if you can get a good package now, it's time. I'm not sure what people wanting to hold onto Ryan expect will happen with him, but the answer is that he'll be playing with some other team two years from now no matter what.
  13. Actually, the only thing that's changed since the Twins traded for him is he's playing in the easiest ballparks to hit in. And if nothing's changed, are you saying that the Phillies gave up a top top prospect for Bader? No, he's very flawed. First, he's not a good athlete, and that's been a frequent acquisition of the Twins, and it's hurt them terribly. He's a bad fielder, period. And finally, he can't really hit the ball in the air. Mendez is a decent pick-up for Bader, but I wouldn't count chickens based on anything he's doing in St. Paul. I wouldn't rule out his being a decent MLB player, but he's a bit of a longshot.
  14. So, I read on MLB Trade Rumors that the Twins had an open spot for Lawrence. Did I miss something? Didn't we open a spot by DFAing SWR and close it by adding Paredes? If we had a spot open, what in the world did we dog SWR for? Aside from him currently sucking, of course.
  15. The Rays are the smartest, the White Sox have gotten smart in the last few year. Neither team will therefore take Lackey. I'd say the Rays could take a pitcher, except taking a pitcher is the wrong thing to do here. The Twins will be stuck with a choice of Lackey (no thanks), Lombard, and the (hopefully) best pitcher.
  16. SMH with St. Paul stats. The good ones mean nothing for hitters. The only stat to look at is K rate, and even that's going to appear better than it really is. Wichita, too.
  17. Not a fan of taking Lackey. I'd rather take the best pitcher or maybe even Jacob Lombard, who is supposed to be better than his brother (a top ten overall prospect) was at the same stage. Georgia Tech catchers have been overrated for years. Also, I know it's a super small sample, but if you're worthy of the #3 pick in the draft, you probably don't go 3 for 25 in the Cape Cod League. You can disregard it, but really most college players' real value comes out in the CCBL. Lackey struck out 6 of 26 PA. For comparison, Cholowsky played there a full year younger and struck out 7 times in 65 PA. Georgia Tech is a hitters' paradise. Numbers are inflated big time, and it's only really behind Tennesse for big-time schools (a major reason I didn't like Billy Amick). You can't ignore this by hoping it's untrue or thinking this doesn't apply to a hitter you like or want. I would pass on Vahn Lackey and take Lombard or a top pitcher if both Cholowsky and Emerson are gone. And by the way, TB is flush in catching prospects, namely Nathan Flewelling, who is very likely better than Lackey. They're flush in shortstop prospects, too, though play them elsewhere, who cares. The biggest thing the Twins can hope for is that the Rays take the best pitcher and leave Roch or Grady for the Twins.
  18. I would expect to see a trade here with this. It. Will. Not. Be. Much.
  19. This. Dealing with caps is a great way to catch up if you're good at it. I have zero reason to believe the Twins would be good at it, given they way they draft. It's all game theory.
  20. I would hope no one who saw the Twins just get beat up by the lowly Whiteys would think there is any reason to keep Ryan instead of getting real value for him. Do I trust the Twins to get real value for him? No, not really, but they lose him in the end anyway.
  21. I found MT's article very interesting, as we're not sure problems are solved. I mean, Keaschall's looked plenty horrible at times in May.
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