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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I didn’t realize splits were analytics. I thought they were just a subset the same data that has been around forever. I thought analytic measures were things like xERA and xFIP where data was analyzed and an ERA estimate is generated. The measures have been shown to be better predictors of future ERA than actual ERA. In this case Ryan shows up better in these measures as his ERA predictors xFIP and xERA were lower than Ober’s. If anything the Twins failed to use analytics in selecting the starter and instead chose the pitcher with the better actual statistics. I thought the Twins made the correct choice in Ober. He had been preparing for starting this day all week. He didn’t execute his pitches well and didn’t locate the ball as well as he usually does. I hope Ryan get’s a chance in a critical game 4.
  2. jorgenswest
    What analytics were used?
  3. jorgenswest
    I wonder about that too. He can no longer be on a minor league rehab but players have started a rehab in the past and then discontinued it staying on IL.
  4. jorgenswest
    If they get three clean innings from Ober I am looking for a fourth clean inning.
  5. jorgenswest
    Agree on Farmer’s price. Based on last year’s comps I expected it to be closer to 8. On the other hand, he is already 33 and they do have some infielders near ready. He could be a tender and like Urshela. De Leon has a good arm but the cost is the spot on the 40 over the winter before he can be put on the 60 day IL.
  6. jorgenswest
    Thoughts as I read the thread. If they do roster Buxton I have more confidence in his contribution since they were willing to sit him in the wild card series. They would sit him again u less they saw enough improvement. One pitcher can start twice in normal rest. Lopez starts games 2 and 5. The Twins OPS against lefties after the all star break is .809. *Valdez had more success against right handed batters than left handed batters in 2023. The outlook is better for this game than it was in the first half. I don’t think any decisions about the roster or rotation will be based on whether or not someone will have hurt feelings. *note: Splits for left handed starters have a skew. They tend to only face the better left handed hitters so the quality of opponent in the left half of the split is higher.
  7. jorgenswest
    Teams can win without offense from their catcher. Skill behind the plate is more important. The Twins will get offense from Jeffers. Next year Vazquez should be the 40% solution with great game calling skills. Few teams will have a secondary catcher with his skills behind the plate. The Twins are fortunate to have Carmargo. Only 4 teams made it through the season using two catchers so that depth will be important. That consistency at catcher is also critical. All 4 teams are in the playoffs.
  8. jorgenswest
    Jax was also selected in 2016. He had a military commitment so it was 2018 before he had any significant minor league time. The pitching team in the organization certainly helped develop a valuable pitcher that was hard to imagine in 2021.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think his work with the pitchers and defense is pretty important. I am glad that he is under control for next year.
  10. jorgenswest
    Going a little unnoticed Andrew Cossetti crushed a home run yesterday. MLB.com
  11. jorgenswest
    Credit to the noise, PitchCom and Correa for that game changing pick off. Would we even have PitchCom without Correa’s Astros in 2017?
  12. jorgenswest
    Lopez can go game 2 and game 5 on normal rest.
  13. jorgenswest
    Bailey Ober in game 1 against Verlander followed by Lopez and Gray. Lopez can come back game 5. Game 4 can stay TBA to see how Maeda is used. They need all 5 on the roster.
  14. jorgenswest
    For me any debate about about whether the pitching pipeline has arrived is over.
  15. jorgenswest
    Gray today. Have they announced tomorrow’s starter?. I think they have enough in the pen to hold back Maeda as long as Gray takes them into the 6th and there isn’t extra innings. I would go with Maeda game 3. I think the his pitch mix will be more difficult in the late afternoon sun. Should they get to Houston they can go Ober, Lopez, Gray, Ryan and Lopez.
  16. jorgenswest
    Left handed batter. Correa shifted to just behind second base and Julien playing towards first. With that alignment, I think Correa’s responsibility with a ball hit to towards third is to take the throw at second base. He is much closer to the bag. He made an amazing play with his instinct and talent.
  17. jorgenswest
    In this case it is one or the other. Martin has the options and Celestino the higher OBP. Celestino had the best BB/K ratio in the organization at 1.14 with St. Paul leading to the high OBP. As for slap hitters the Twins certainly don’t seem to favor the low strike out contact type hitters. It can take time to develop that skill as players need to learn to be aggressive on the good pitches to drive and patient on pitches where they have the skill to make contact but the contact is weak. Wade was 27 before he showed any power. It is tough with international players who run out of optIons so soon. Detroit gave Castro through age 25 to show his value and the Twins were the benefactor at 26. Celestino ran out of time here. I don’t disagree with the move as I think they would have had to make room on the 40 and it doesn’t appear that he would be among the top 4 outfielders next year. I do wonder if he would have had a little more trade value into the off-season. Some teams must value those on base low strike out skills. They would have needed to release Keuchel instead of IL him to clear that spot. The Twins received very little for Wade so it probably doesn't matter. Teams are needing to clear spots on the 40 now for the 60 day IL players and players need to add to avoid the rule 5. The demand will be low.
  18. jorgenswest
    I do see the difference in stolen bases and the ability to play second base. I don’t see more production at the bat by looking at that stat line. They are virtually the same in AAA. Celestino really has very little minor league time. He had a full season at lower full season A level in 2019, no baseball in 2020, rushed to the majors in 2021, sat on the bench in 2022 and battled back from injury this year. Is that what you mean by stagnated? It really reminds me how useless traditional stat lines can be even after a season of play. A 24 year old with a .392 OBP a several more walks than strike outs looks at least somewhat worthwhile. You can find a nearly identical AAA season from LaMonte Wade in 2019. Wade was a year older and his WRC+ a few ticks lower. Another player that stagnated?
  19. jorgenswest
    Celestino was removed. It isn’t surprising but maybe a little sobering for our perception of Martin’s progress in AAA. Celestino had a WOBA .001 points better than Martin and their ISO, OBP and SLG were very close. Both are 24 but Celestino is out of options and Martin has 3. Hopefully Celestino will get a chance from someone and make the most of it as Castro did this year. edited to fix mistake on number of options. Thanks chpettit19.
  20. jorgenswest
    I am looking for another pitcher to on the roster game 162. This won’t impact decisions about Correa or Lewis.
  21. jorgenswest
    Do the Twins need a pitcher who can give them length tomorrow that won’t be on the playoff roster. I don’t think Ober will go deep into the game. I wouldn’t use Varland more than an inning. It might be telling if Funderburk is used multiple innings tomorrow. I think I would bring back someone on the 40 that can throw 80 or more pitches to protect the rest of the pen if Ober has a short start. I don’t know the rules but if they send out Funderburk in the regular season he has to be out 10 days. He might be needed in the second series. DFA Keuchel?
  22. jorgenswest
    The cost of Pham was a top 50 international prospect from this year. The Twins could have beaten that offer by sending their top international signee and possibly another asset if Castro was not viewed as better by the Mets. The cost of Canha was a 23 year old starting pitcher in AA. With the Brewers Justin Jarvis had 91 strike outs and 26 walk in 75.2 innings and a 3.69 ERA. He was the Brewers 12th ranked prospect in the pipeline and entered the Mets as their 13th. A comp on the Twins might be 23 year old David Festa though his AA ERA was 4.39. To beat the offer they probably need to replace Festa with a better prospect of add someone to the deal. The cost for Pham or Canha was not a top 100 global prospect and maybe that is the “not much” line. Prospects like Festa and Ariel Castro should not be parted with easily though. In this case they may not have been enough to best the offers of the other teams. If you do make that deal you need some luck also. Pham has the same WAR (0.3) as Luplow in spite of much more playing time. Canha has 1.0 WAR but he has also three times the plate appearances. That leaves me to wonder if they had traded that level of asset for Canha or Pham would that have relegated Wallner to a bench role?
  23. jorgenswest
    They have kept Maeda stretched out. It is a possibility. The Dodgers used Maeda as a high leverage reliever in the playoffs. His value there was similar to that of a starter. If his role in this playoffs is long man if needed, I think he is more valuable as a starter.
  24. jorgenswest
    Success in the postseason is really going to hinge on the Lopez, Gray and the starting line up and not the last roster spot or two that we will debate for pages. I have no idea how close Buxton is to being ready. I do know that no one has more upside and if anyone can be a difference maker in the last spot, it is Buxton. I think I would roll the dice with Buxton
  25. jorgenswest
    We can compare their age 23 seasons relative to league using wRC+. They both had a break out season splitting the time between AA and AAA. Miranda: AA 162, AAA 156 Severino: AA 139, AAA 100 The numbers were skewed higher this year so comparing raw numbers or rates between the two seasons will give the illusion hitters in AAA are better this year. It really is astonishing that Severino can put up an OPS of .831 in AAA and have a wRC+ of exactly league average. In Severino’s favor he was better prior to age 23. In Miranda’s favor he had a wRC+ of 116 as a major league regular at 24. I like them both and expect Miranda to return healthy next year. I also expect Severino to perform above league average AAA as he starts the season there and be ready to help mideseason if needed.
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