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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I don’t think BTV works with the Mets well. BTV assumes that all teams care the same about salaries. The values of the players don’t change as different teams and budget constraints are paired together. The reason that Alonso is only worth 11 is because his salary next year will be high and there isn’t a lot of excess value. While they are at it the Twins may as well as toss in Castro while the Mets toss in Lindor. They have about the same excess value. The only way the Mets trade Alonso for 2024 is if they perceive the return gives them a better chance to win in 2024. They need a catcher. Maybe a deal of Jeffers and Kepler would give them hope of a better 2024. The Twins aren’t making that deal. If somehow the Mets change do an 180 and start dumping salaries in plans of tanking for 2024 those deals might work.
  2. jorgenswest
    Are you talking about reps in game? I think the real work is reps outside of the game. You get very little reps in a game and no repetition to work on footwork and angles, I don’t know when he started that work at 1B except that it was reported at least a month before we saw him in a game. In June I think it was most prudent to spend that rep time outside of games invested in 2B or decide to scrap 2B and keep him in the minors to get him ready for 1B faster. The minor league schedule, travel and routine allows more time to get that repetition work outside of the game time. I think they needed his bat for Polanco and bringing him back to the majors as a 2B was the best decision. I also believe there are players who adapt easily to position change and are gifted with their footwork and arm action. They probably have soft hands. This isn’t Julien’s skill set. He needs the work.
  3. jorgenswest
    It is absolutely fair that the Twins utilize the few opportunities they have to option any player. I don’t believe the extra day of rest is any lasting benefit so no to a 6 man rotation. I suggested they give him a rest when the Twins had a 2 week stretch where they could have gone with 4 starters. They could have optioned him then. Rocco was asked about Ober in relief. I believe the concerns the amount of time he needs to get ready to pitch as well as being able to go back to back days.
  4. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t sell low. Get the shoulder strong. Start in AAA. The Twins will never have too many good hitters. I think they still have one in a healthy Miranda.
  5. jorgenswest
    There have been reports of Julien working at 1B going back at least a month and Baldelli addressed his hard work in the pregame yesterday. They didn’t just throw him out there without preparation. I guess one could argue they should never had him investing his efforts into 2B this year but at some point the Twins must have assessed that they were better off shifting that work to 1B. Another might argue that they are just moving him around again and he should solely focus on 2B. I don’t know what is best but he isn’t a naturally gifted fielder. He isn’t the kind of player that would be well suited in a utility role. He is going to invest time in repetition outside of games wherever he ends up playing.
  6. jorgenswest
    Half of the games are robo calls and the other half the appeals are available. At the time of the Athletic article I read there were 5.2 walks per 9 in the robo call and 4.6 in the appeal. Both numbers are up but 5.2 walks per nine is way up. There were other problems with the system including consistency between venues as well as adapting to the individual strike zone of each batter. My wonder is if this isn’t close to ready, how close is the one I see on TV. I would hope the AAA one used in actual games is better than the one I see on TV.
  7. jorgenswest
    Gallo has been the end of the bench for a while. He is pinch hit for against right handed pitchers by right handed batters. He comes in the game as a defensive replacement or a sub. According to Fangraphs he has only 27 high leverage plate appearances this year which as a ratio ranks below everyone on the roster. My guess is most of those came in April and May. He is the last player on the bench.
  8. jorgenswest
    There isn’t a linear correlation between strike outs and runs scored. There may be a relationship where teams in the upper and lower extremes score fewer runs. I do think there is a need for balance and replacing Arraez with at bats from Gallo and Julien upset that balance. Urshela and Miranda were also below 20% last year. A few more hitters next year with contact skills will help but they can win and score runs striking out a lot. Above all they need good hitters and Gallo hasn’t been one. He also has sat the bench as a defensive sub/pinch runner or bat at the bottom of the order much of the second half.
  9. jorgenswest
    What does this number have to do with base running blunders? Correa is right handed, hits the ball ball harder than most, hits ground ball more than average and is slower than average. Aren’t those the factors leading to his number? How much an impact are his blunders?
  10. jorgenswest
    Sometime Sonny gets caught in the emotion of the moment. I think he can look back on this season where he… stayed healthy all year threw more innings than he has since 2015 made his third all star game and first since 2019 led or among league leader in ERA … and appreciate how the Twins and their use of him put him in a position to get a big contract in free agency at age 34.
  11. jorgenswest
    I know it’s been reported that they are trying to adjust the automatic strike zone but they still must have work to do. Royce Lewis and others have talked about how small it is. 14 walks. They still have work to do. The pitchers have no choice but throw fat pitches which AAA batters are feasting upon.
  12. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the article. I look forward to seeing Williams get his chance in the majors.
  13. jorgenswest
    I think Moran is injured. I wondered the same about Headrick. With two games and a day off they probably don’t need 9 arms in the pen. I would bring up a bat.
  14. jorgenswest
    Sam Moll has also allowed 4 inherited runners to score and has a very slightly negative WPA with the Reds. The failure was really last winter. The options at the deadline were expensive in terms of players and flawed.
  15. jorgenswest
    Camargo is young and apparently is solid defensively. He can take a step forward next year. I think he is worthy of a 40 man roster spot. He isn’t blocked yet. Hopefully 2025.
  16. jorgenswest
    Isola and Williams are at best emergency catchers. Astudillo was a better catcher in the minors. Camargo will strike out a lot with occasional power. He has been pretty consistent the last two years. His wRC+ is 92 and was 92 in AA last year. His strikeout rate of 33 and walk rate of 8 are virtually the same as was his ISO. Jeffers had wRC+ of 151, 112 and 109 at those levels. Caleb Hamilton 117 and 99. Rortvedt had wRCs of 101 and 101. Relative to league Carmago has not been at the level of those three with the bat. I would put him on the 40 this winter in hopes that he can get his strike outs down and walks up. Right now I don’t see anyone being blocked.
  17. jorgenswest
    Julien had BABIPs of .471 and .450 in June and July. Maybe it gave some the illusion that the Twins could afford to trade Polanco and possibly anoint Julien rookie of the year. In season slash stats vary so much by the small sample it is really hard to draw any conclusions looking at a change from one small sample to another small sample. Julien has a good bat and possibly good enough to DH long term or make up for deficits at 2B. He has work to do also. He needs to cut down on his strike outs and he needs to have better at bats against left handed pitching.
  18. jorgenswest
    It may happen. I do believe that the front office makes moves with winning in mind. It isn’t as clear to me that Martin gives them a better chance to win than Luplow. The way Baldelli has pinch hit for Gallo against righties makes me think he believes Stevenson is going to be a better option than Gallo in CF. Let’s see what happens when Kirilloff and Castro return. We may not have have Gallo or Luplow or both after that.
  19. jorgenswest
    Really nice response after the Cleveland series compounded by the waiver loss. Glad that Luplow was on the team today. Great pitching by Ryan and the bullpen.
  20. jorgenswest
    I don’t think the 50 points is valid in the run scoring context of AAA. Even taking 50 points off which I guess would be 100 points of OPS doesn’t make up for how skewed the AAA numbers are. I think Jake Cave is a good comp. Jake was hitting much better than Stevenson in AAA this year. They both have had stretches of success in the majors. Let’s hope we get a good stretch from Stevenson in September.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think the playoff will be not be an issue. Anyone in the organization on August 31 can get added due to injury and there are always injuries. Isn’t that how they added Kirilloff? Stevenson helps because Rocco doesn’t trust Gallo and pinch hits right handed batters for him when facing a right handed pitcher. Stevenson was needed Wednesday when Lillie pinch hit for Gallo against a right handed pitcher. I hope he shows enough to stay on the team so the front office is willing to drop Gallo when Kirilloff is ready.
  22. jorgenswest
    15 months off? We really have a different view of the effort it takes to come back from a serious injury.
  23. jorgenswest
    Good for Cleveland and their fans. Sport is better when teams try to win. Let’s look forward to meaningful baseball down the stretch. Ultimately it is the game of baseball that is the enjoyment for me. I can enjoy the game whether the Twins are in contention or not and whether it is a win or a loss. This month it will be baseball in the race for the central. What could be better?
  24. jorgenswest
    They head into the last month with a five game lead on the Guardians. Buxton, Castro and Kirilloff will return. They will be an upgrade over Gallo and Luplow. A player like Martin could infuse some energy. On the pitching side they could see the return of Ober, Stewart, Paddock and Alcala. They didn’t get a waiver claim but the front office still has moves they can make.
  25. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t knowing the Twins are going to win the World Series take any enjoyment and interest out of the season? Imagine knowing that the Twins would win game 7 of the 1991 World Series ahead of time. Why watch? I have no interest in bragging rights. If everyone knows there is reason to even televise.
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