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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    ERA isn’t a very predictive stat and catcher ERA can’t be better. It would be so hard to control the varying quality of opponent and pitcher caught added to all of the other noise in ERA. It may have been helpful years ago when pitch level data wasn’t available. I sure hope it isn’t part of what the Twins use to evaluate a catcher.
  2. jorgenswest
    Something to consider. 156 Duran 145 Gray 139 Jax 121 Lopez Those are the top 4 in high leverage batters faced. The fifth through tenth range 49 to 69. Ryan, Ober, Pagán, Jorge Lopez, Thielbar, Maeda
  3. jorgenswest
    I would add a starter and prepare Varland to be a starter. Their 6th starter will be needed to start a lot of games and he has a better chance for success than Dobnak, Festa or Woods-Richardson.
  4. jorgenswest
    Vazquez has value to the team. I would Vázquez if they can find a team to take all of his remaining contract and part with a marginal prospect. If they need to add dollars or take on a bad contract I would keep him.
  5. jorgenswest
    They may wait it out. That didn’t work out so well with Lance Lynn though. Maybe Ryu is their next target.
  6. jorgenswest
    … or Farmer. I think Farmer will be difficult to trade. So many of these deals are multiple players for one. They work in BTV but I think would lose out to other teams offering fewer players at the same value.
  7. jorgenswest
    The Mariner trade may add up but they really sending three players on the 40 for one player. Those 40 man spots have value also. I don’t think they can match another teams offer for Gilbert without including either Lee, Jenkins or Lewis plus much more. Moran was non-tendered.
  8. jorgenswest
    Quilici was a broadcaster in 1987. Kirby Puckett’s signature had a vary oversized loop for the P that made it appear like an O.
  9. jorgenswest
    Must have been a recent update. I see Polanco at 8.3.
  10. jorgenswest
    He ran out of options and time. It happens to international signings who have to start their options clock so young. He hit similarly to Martin but Martin has options remaining, I am not sure he fell behind Keirsey. His offensive numbers in AAA were much better and Keirsey was not protected in the rule 5.
  11. jorgenswest
    True. I don’t think Rodriguez should be the plan but injuries and a good spring might make it a possibility. It isn’t crazy to believe that he could be helpful.
  12. jorgenswest
    It is very possible that Julien is the best hitter of the three. There is space for all three of these cost controlled players.
  13. jorgenswest
    Julio Urias had the surgery when he was 20. He had started 15 games (plus 7 in the minors) for the Dodgers in his age 19 season. He was 24 before he started more than 10 games again and he has had success. Woodruff and the other pitchers I named above had surgery in their early 30s. Urias is probably not a good comp to rely on. He had surgery in 2017 and it was 2021 before his major league strikeout rate returned to his pre surgery level as a starter.
  14. jorgenswest
    I think this is the same surgery as Johan Santana at about same age. Johan did return after a year off. He pitched poorly and retired. Rich Harden tried to make a comeback with the Twins following surgery but did not make it back to the majors. Dallas Braden did not return to the major leagues. Chris Young did return and was an average starter by ERA the first year and better than average year the second year after return. There are teams that can afford to risk some of their payroll of Woodruff. Is it a risk the Twins should take? Will it be 2026 before he is fully back?
  15. jorgenswest
    I do wonder what their plans are for the 4 remaining spots on the 40. They could have protected a few more from the rule 5 draft.
  16. jorgenswest
    Trying to find a comp of a contender and landed in Michael Harris II. He played in High A at 20 and was in the majors by the end of May the next year. His hit tool was different but both bring a major league ready glove. He was called up early when Adam Duvall was struggling with an OPS in the 500s and less than star play in CF. Harris shows more contact and steals with a lower walk rate and ISO to an wRC+ of 114 in high A. Rodriguez has more power and walks with the increased strikeouts that go with that profile. His wRC+ was 145 last year and 196 the previous year. A Twins comp might be Kirby Puckett who had a major league ready glove and jumped up to the majors on May 8 in the season after A-Ball. Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks also arrived young with a major league ready glove but their high A performance was not near a 145 wRC+. I am not sure it is a good idea but it isn’t a crazy one. Now that he is on the 40 Rodriguez is close. One difference between Rodriguez and the other recent Twin prospects is the major league ready glove part.
  17. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they need to give up a prospect. I think a parallel trade of players that have had chances in the majors without significant success will be sufficient. Moran doesn’t feel like an overpay nor does Alcala feel like too little. Larnach, Miranda, Gordon, Balazovic also fit as similarly aged players that have shown glimpses of their upside. The view of these players and their potential will really vary by team but one might fit the Astros. edit: Moran will miss 2024 to Tommy John surgery. The Twins have nontendered him and hope to sign him to a two year minor league free agent contract.
  18. jorgenswest
    I think the most likely player to be non-tendered is Farmer if they can’t make a trade prior to Friday. There are no great shortstop options in free agency but there are plenty of stop gap options and I think that is how Farmer would be viewed. Rosario, Kiner-Falefa, Anderson and Mondesi are younger options. Crawford, Andrus and Hernandez are other stop gap options. Mateo may be non-tendered and is likely available in a trade for a marginal prospect. If they don’t find a trade partner by the deadline, non-tender might be the best option. Farmer has been non-tendered previously. The Reds resigned him in free agency.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think they all have value that exceeds the projected salary making them an asset to the team or in trade. Tender them all.
  20. jorgenswest
    I am confident Polanco will be an adequate 3B with time to prepare in the spring. He had little preparation last year in a rehab. Julien may be best suited to 1B and needed there if Kirilloff isn’t ready or isn’t very good following the latest surgery. There is space for both Polanco and Julien. Acknowledging there is space, I would absolutely trade Polanco for starting pitching.
  21. jorgenswest
    If those are the only choices then I protect Gordon. Gordon has a career RAA of 0 at 2B, LF and SS. His CF has been 0 over 2022 and 2023. His 2023 small sample stat line at the plate with a BABIP in the 100s was very different than his expected stats based on his contact. I think his 2022 stat line is a better predictor. I would expect that Gordon will help more with his glove and his bat than Prato.
  22. jorgenswest
    His walk rate was lower than the league average of 11.8%. The automated zone made it very difficult to pitch.
  23. jorgenswest
    He has an option remaining. The clock isn’t approaching midnight until that option is exhausted.
  24. jorgenswest
    Of course stats are biased. Sports are particularly troublesome but because each event is collected under different conditions instead of a controlled environment. Understanding statistical bias and the root causes are at the heart of the study of statistics.
  25. jorgenswest
    As a mathematician I would somewhat disagree. Slash stats are cited often but need huge samples and arguments are made based on a season or partial season as if that is how the player will perform in the next season. I do believe the data teams have tell a better story. I also believe daily in-person eyes of a skilled and trained human are better than the stat line. As for me, my eyes are not trained and skilled and the data I have really can vary. I offer opinions with the knowledge that I have many blind spots both with the data and from what I have seen. I have to go into it with an open mind and consider the ideas here whether they are based on the insufficient data or the eye test. I think it is worth discussing.
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