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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Maybe you forgot to subtract a year on Gallo who was 29 a year ago at this time. Same for Gray. Both turned your listed age after the season. Varland is in his age 26 season. There isn’t anything to accomplish in AAA. He doesn’t need to be on an innings limit. The only reason to keep him in AAA is if they have 13 better pitchers. The same probably was true of Ober last year. He may have been on an innings limit and starting in AAA would have resulted in less stressful innings. Another difference is the reduced budget. At this budget they absolutely must develop their own inexpensive under control players. They might need to take a few more lumps as those players transition to the majors.
  2. jorgenswest
    How did you choose the ages? Last year’s players with their 2023 BBREF age and this year’s with the 2024? I wonder because I know that Gallo is off whichever day you picked during the season of play. I do see a difference. The number of position players that had success in AA or AAA last year is more than the previous. I didn’t join those calling for their call ups because I believe in the value of development in AAA. Most have or will soon have significant time in AAA. As for the pitchers I would have no argument if it were Gray and even Maeda with contracts. I can get behind those aging players. Keuchel doesn’t fit because he had to show his skill in AAA. It isn’t the same for DeSclafini. Varland is ready. Will the recent decline phase additions keep him AAA. The only way he should be in AAA is if there are 13 clearly better options in the majors. If it is close he needs the spot because he has the most upside. The same should be said about Santana and Miranda. If the Miranda is the better player he needs to be on the roster and Santana needs to go.
  3. jorgenswest
    I hope Kepler has such a good season he is worthy of a qualifying offer. I wouldn’t extend him. Meanwhile the Twins should start preparing this spring for the outfield in 24 and 25. I think the best long term solution is Lewis. His athleticism would be a real plus anywhere in the outfield. Falvey was quoted as saying that outfield is something they would revisit for Lewis in the off-season. It didn’t surprise me that they were cautious with him returning last year in May without a spring training. If not Lewis then they really need to get Brooks Lee some reps in the outfield starting this spring.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think the plan for all of these types of signings was to pass them through waivers. Is it possible that sometimes these deals are done knowing they will soon make another addition? Before signing someone you will keep you look at the waiver list and add a player that you will soon waive and reopen the spot. example: last year in a week one spot went from Oliver Ortega to AJ Alexy to Michael A Taylor Taylor ended up with the spot and they tried to pass Ortega and Alexy through waivers.
  5. jorgenswest
    Somebody already has. From a John Shipley article as he was returning from injury during the 2023 season.
  6. jorgenswest
    Lewis has the tools to be a very good outfielder. Play him LF and move Wallner to RF. Sell high Kepler and get back something that improves the pitching. They have options at 3B including Castro, Miranda, Lee and Martin. Would Lewis be willing to play outfield? I don’t doubt the confidence he has in his abilities and his willingness to help the team. I get how coming back from the injury last year without spring training they were careful about his use. He needs to be where he helps the team the most.
  7. jorgenswest
    Brought this back because maybe this is the kind of move that works within the budget constraints. The Twins have Larnach or Gordon to send in exchange for Meyers in a trade of players whose opportunity window is closing but young enough to capture that potential. The Angels may also have a need for a left handed hitter. They added Hicks but he is better from the right side and makes Jo Adell redundant. They might be open to a swap of outfielders where the opportunity window is closing.
  8. jorgenswest
    Huh?
  9. jorgenswest
    How does it look if you throw out the worst season instead of the best?
  10. jorgenswest
    Santana’s signing suggests otherwise. I have accepted the budget they have set. I don’t agree with how they allocated those dollars this off-season.
  11. jorgenswest
    Three years of control in a good starting pitcher is tremendously expensive. He has more surplus value than any Twin in the organization other than Royce Lewis. It would take Lewis or two of their best assets to match that value like Jenkins/Varland or Lee/Jeffers. They also would need to find salary space this year perhaps by including Farmer if the Marlins would take him. Should they make a deal sending something like Jenkins, Varland and Farmer?
  12. jorgenswest
    The Twins don’t have a Hall to send. They need Ober and next is Varland. To match that deal or better it they would need to send someone like Emmanuel Rodriguez. I hope the Twins make the playoffs. I expect the Orioles will. DeSclafini isn’t likely to be on a playoff roster. Burnes would start game 1. His salary might be tough to fit in. They would have needed to trade Polanco without taking back significant salary and have the foresight to nontender Farmer as well as part the young players necessary to get Burnes. I would have gone the direction of putting my resources into one significant player that pushes everyone down a notch. The Twins went for depth. The depth will help them get to the playoffs. Elite players help teams win in the playoffs.
  13. jorgenswest
    I they they are already relying on too many aging players that they will be reluctant to release if they drop in performance. I don’t think they should add a short side platoon outfielder in the decline phase of their career. A trade of Larnach or Gordon to a team with a similarly aged right handed batting outfielder that has yet to establish themselves would be my preference. Jake Meyers? Jo Adell? Short of that I would turn to Martin first and then look at DFAs.
  14. jorgenswest
    The 2022 Gordon is one of their top 9 hitters against right handed pitching (OPS 793). I think there is a good chance that he is very helpful to this team. His contract won’t keep them from giving some of the AAA depth an opportunity. I am more concerned about the decisions to retain acquire players at an age where decline is a real possibility and might be retained. After two months of the season if Santana, Farmer or DeSclafini have dropped off they need to release them. They are really betting on spreading the dollars on those three aging players rather than getting one better player with the dollars and filling the other two spots from within. I hope the bet pays off.
  15. jorgenswest
    The roster appears set. I am looking forward to spring training.
  16. jorgenswest
    Every extra year of control is more expensive. Two year is more than twice as expensive in prospects as 1 year. Looking for three years? Around 40% of the prospect cost is that third year. There is much more surplus value in the first year of arbitration than the third. Those extra dollars saved in salary results in a higher prospect cost. One year of Burnes is very expensive. Two years more than twice as expensive and probably takes the Twins top two prospects. The Orioles did well in this trade. They get a year of Burnes and they will get a comp pick when he moves on in free agency. The Twins should not shy away from a deal for an ace with one year of control.
  17. jorgenswest
    I have confidence that Soler or Martinez would be a needed addition to the middle of the line up. My only preference for Martinez is I think he might take a one year commitment which I would prefer to three for Soler. Go hard after both and get one of them.
  18. jorgenswest
    The leadership nonsense is something I may have started. I wrote about Martinez and compared him to Cruz but my parallel was the elite work ethic that has helped them to defy aging curves. Somehow that turned into mostly a clubhouse focus. I wrote how they both had their best years and most all star appearances in their 30s. It is possible that this work ethic might have a positive impact on the clubhouse but probably not worth debating. My initial point was that Martinez has a good chance of exceeding projections as Cruz did later in his career due to his work ethic. His bat and whether it can help the Twins in the middle of the lineup is worth debating.
  19. jorgenswest
    Bob Nightengale reported that the Mariners are involved with Miller or Woo as the centerpiece. I don’t see how the Twins can compete with that offer. Bailey Ober is close but they Ober and Cease. I don’t think the division is the barrier to getting this deal done. The Twins don’t have the young controllable pitching talent to compete with the Mariners. If the Mariners drop out then maybe a package of Varland and Rodriguez would work,
  20. jorgenswest
    Last season Soler was described by his manager as a leader in the clubhouse. Either he or Martinez would be a necessary addition to the middle of the line up and so much better than the platoon bat options.
  21. jorgenswest
    Varland, Gonzalez and competitive pick B would have been comparable. I would do that deal and improve it some to win the deal.
  22. jorgenswest
    Soler for one year or three? One is OK. Wasn’t he pretty healthy in 2021? He had 604 PAs and an uninspiring wRC+ of 100.
  23. jorgenswest
    He wants three years. He probably isn’t getting that offer yet. Should we expect that his age 32-34 season will be as productive as his age 29-31 seasons? Some work ethic freaks like Cruz and Martinez defy expectations and play better in their 30s. Is that Soler’s reputation? Over 1488 plate appearances ages 29-31 he slashed 230/322/457 for an OPS+ of 109. All of his RF defensive metrics over the three years are well in the negatives without a single positive number in any year any metric. Is it reasonable to expect the OPS+ of 109 to decline some? Will he be playable in the outfield? I think JD Martinez is the better hitter next year. I would prefer him and try to get him to a contract similar to the one they gave Cruz. I want the better hitter and would give up the occasional flexibility of the poor RF Soler can offer.
  24. jorgenswest
    If Soler is the better option, why wouldn’t a team sign him rather than trade assets for Kepler? The answer must be the cost of the contract. If the Twins are willing to trade Kepler and take some of the burden of his contract either through sending dollars or taking back a bad contract then I can see this deal. The Twins would also get prospects or useful major league players in return. If they make this kind of deal they wouldn’t have the budget to get Soler either though.
  25. jorgenswest
    Last year they really needed help at 1B late in the season. I was surprised they didn’t try Wallner or Larnach. I looked and neither has played 1B in the minors or college. That surprised me but I shouldn’t assume that anyone can play 1B. That may be Julien’s eventual spot.
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