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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Looking at Larnach’s profile it doesn’t appear he will have much excess value beyond his contract. They might be best non-tendering him rather than risk not finding a trade partner this winter.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins should not be rewarded for this performance. It is a disgrace to the game. MLB should and could fix this mess and eliminate any thought of tanking. The first pick in the draft should go to the nonplayoff team with the best post deadline record. Second best? Second pick. Worst record? Last pick among non playoff teams. Want to blow up your team and trade off 10 players at the deadline? Do it. The MLB shouldn’t reward this behavior though. They need to create a system that makes winning matter and every game matter. It is a pretty easy fix.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins have the prospect capital to win a trade for a bat. Some good bats are moved every winter. The Twins should in on those conversations. As for what the Twins think, I have no idea. There are plenty of threads for that conversation. My thoughts are that the Twins need a good bat, Rutschman would help and they should be willing to deal from their prospect pool to win a trade for bat.
  4. jorgenswest
    The pick should not be a factor. By the time the draft gets into the 30s there is a pretty small chance of a significant major league career. Of the players drafted and signed at pick 31 you will find Greg Maddux and then Jarrod Washburn. No one else has surpassed 10 career WAR. I have no idea if Jenkins will give them the better chance of winning games next April. The Twins need him though. This organization needs hope. He ought to have a chance to win the job in spring training. I wouldn’t worry about the year of service time either though I think it has more potential value than a pick in the 30s. They shouldn’t make the decision based on a pick or service time. They need to get this man in a major league uniform when they determine he can help them win games. I hope it is opening day next year. They need to send a massage that winning is top priority from day one next year.
  5. jorgenswest
    @DocBauer Really appreciate the thoughts. They failed to get something for Rosario and Farmer. They non-tendered Rosario and retained Farmer. I wonder which would be the best route for Larnach. If they can’t get a real return should they keep him? I am not certain the Twins are preparing Prielipp as a starter. Think they prefer all of their potential major league arms to have the regular routine of a starter and this year the added 4 day regular routine. It gives an opportunity to get in work between each outing. In Prielipp’s case, the priority of a healthy arm had him pitching every 7th and then moving to every 6th day midseason. That is the same routine was given to Ragans when he missed three seasons with two surgeries. Ragans did end up starting. I wonder about Duran. Was one his arm injury in 2021 one of the motivations to put Duran in the pen? He was 24 when they made the move though he had pitched the routine of a starter in the minors. I wonder if their mind is open to Jenkins winning a spot in the spring and starting the season in the majors. Mine would be.
  6. jorgenswest
    Never give up. Mickey Gasper! Take a bat to the hand behind the plate early in the game, throw out a runner to end the Toronto 8th and come up big with the bat to tie the game leading off the 9th. A game to remember.
  7. jorgenswest
    Wallner has not played first base in college, the cape cod league, the minor leagues or with the Twins. I would assume he was given a look there along the way and doesn’t have the necessary hands and feet to play at a passable level. His best defensive asset is his arm strength.
  8. jorgenswest
    They aren’t going to know if he is ready. No team really knows. One thing in his favor is his glove. If he has struggles at the plate he still should have a plus glove on a corner while he grows with his bat. He needs a real shot to win the job in the spring.
  9. jorgenswest
    Samples are so deceiving. What hope did people have in Stowers leading up to 2025? Entering his age 27 season he had a good 2022 AAA season with a wRC+ of 134 in AAA. Over three up and down seasons in Baltimore with an OPS+ of 83 and negative OOAs from corner OF. He used up his options. After the trade he had a 56 wRC+ in 172 PAs for the Marlins. Would the Twins have that kind of patience for a player whose value is the potential of his bat? That is the same wRC+ as Roden with the Twins. Outman is 75. Stowers turned it around and found that bat he showed in the minors. It took three years to find it. It takes so much patience with some players. Sometimes patience beyond their available options. How much patience should the Twins have with Roden or even Outman? There is no guarantee they will find the bat they had in the minors.
  10. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the hope. A few thoughts. I think both Jenkins in the outfield and Prielipp in the pen can help from opening day. If they can’t get a player for Larnach it is OK to go the Rosario direction and let him go. Change in leadership brings new energy to any organization. They need that energy.
  11. jorgenswest
    Teams have been holding on to their prospects. It is really hard to get a prospect with an FV over 50 and if you do they come with the risk of being a few years away. According to ESPN one prospect with an FV of 50 moved this year in DeVries. The Twins got two of the four 50s that moved in Tait and Abel. I wonder if the blow up path is available anymore if the top 20 or so of the top 100 are untouchable. It would have been great to find a Stowers but a year ago at this time he looked like the guys the Twins acquired this year. He had been up and down for three years with the Orioles with an OPS+ of 83 and a minus glove on the corner. He was awful for Miami in 172 PAs after the trade with an wRC+ of 56. That is Roden’s wRC+ as a Twin. Outman as a Twin is 75. Somehow he turned it around. I wouldn’t have traded Duran or Varland or Jax without getting back that elite prospect. As many told me I was asking too much and that wasn’t going to happen. It didn’t. I would have kept them and moved them next deadline if they were out of it. I think the return would have been close to the same.
  12. jorgenswest
    Discouraging.
  13. jorgenswest
    I don’t think the Twins should make trades where they give up quality for quantity. They don’t need more depth in their prospect pool. They need elite players and must get top pitching prospects back. Let’s not redo the Santana deal. They don’t need to trade Lopez or Ryan.
  14. jorgenswest
    Milwaukee the last two years is pretty close. In the end they looked good but look back at the previous few years of those relievers heading into the season.
  15. jorgenswest
    I think it will be Abel tomorrow
  16. jorgenswest
    Concur. Would a path to a trade be a team trading a bat with one or two years left for prospects or possibly a team trying to trade a contract? I think those kinds of deals happen every off season. The Twins have the prospect depth to win in these kinds of trades. Someone is probably going to push me for specifics and I don’t have them. I would be really surprised though if no good bats move this winter.
  17. jorgenswest
    To answer the question I think the Twins are poised to compete in 2026. They have work to do. I don’t think they have anyone in the current bullpen that will step up to replace the relievers they lost. They are going to have to find most of those pieces among their many starters. Maybe it is Bradley, Festa and Priellipp heading. Look at the pens of the Mariners and Brewers. They have both continued to trade off successful relievers and replaced with players acquired in trade or even off waivers. They need to spend prospect capital to acquire a top of the line up bat. They have the prospect depth to make this kind of trade. They need to push their payroll up towards the league median. That really is the only way the Pohlad’s can follow through with their promise of commitment. There is no other measure. Will Falvey and the Pohlad’s follow through? We are inundated with places to debate that. I highly doubt it but let’s debate that elsewhere. I would be interested in a different debate here. Do they have enough talent and resources to build a competitive team next year?
  18. jorgenswest
    Hatch could be a nice story. I think the better fit would be the “next Carl Willis” who joined the Twins at 30 and pitched well in relief for three seasons including the 1991 World Series. I am not sure which is more likely. Will Hatch have an important role in the pen and finish the 2026 year with the Twins? Will Gasper be the back up catcher and finish 2026 with the Twins? It seems unlikely that Gasper will be the second catcher but I am not sure Hatch has a role larger than the back end of the pen that will be DFA’d by May 1.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins are also playing for today. Today matters. The Twins should be playing for 2026. 2026 matters. Call up Mick Abel. Get the three injured starters back on the mound. Some will get a look in the pen. Look at Taj Bradley in the bullpen. Fight to win each game. That fight now will matter next year.
  20. jorgenswest
    Aren’t the Brewers one of the best defensive teams in the league? Isn’t Ortiz a key to that as one of the best defensive shortstops? I don’t think anyone who has watched him play defense the last two years would think he is anywhere near replaceable. The Brewers are fast, young and play defense. Turns out that is an inexpensive model. They are in the bottom half of home runs and 10th in OPS. In spite of the middling team slash stats they lead the league in runs scored. Maybe we need to look beyond OPS to decide what is replacement level.
  21. jorgenswest
    I would like to see Abel, Bradley, Festa, Lopez and Woods Richardson but we don’t need to wait until September to find a place for them when ready. I hope we see Abel in his next start. Some will have to pitch from the pen but that won’t prevent them from starting next year. I don’t think it would be wise to add anyone to the 40 other than those that are certain to be protected from the rule 5 draft in the winter. It just gives them more flexibility to build the roster during the winter. Not playing in September doesn’t prohibit Eeles or Jenkins from making the roster next spring. I don’t know what to make of Fedko’s high BABIP and relatively low EV in AAA. I guess I would not trust the AAA slash stats to be very meaningful in this small sample with the extreme BABIP not supported by a high EV. I think the eyes of those seeing him play in person every day would be the better judge. I don’t think I would add Sabato to the 40 man in the winter. His lack of positional flexibility suggests that he is either a starter at 1B or DH or not on the 26 man roster. He isn’t very helpful on the bench. I would add Gonzalez because he has the upside of a 21 year old. I think he should continue in AAA though.
  22. jorgenswest
    Outman is a very good centerfielder. The last three years the Twins have spent money to acquire a one year solution as the back up centerfielder in Taylor, Margot and Bader. At -11 OAA across 1500+ major league innings Outman has established himself to be very good with the glove in centerfield. He doesn’t need to be an average major league hitter to help this team as their inexpensive back up centerfielder.
  23. jorgenswest
    My apologies. I will be more clear. My original thought was the can better compete for bats that will be moved in a trade than a free agent bat. “Whatever it takes” means just enough to best other teams in the trade market for that bat. I feel they have the depth in their prospect pool to win those kinds of deals. BTV isn’t perfect and I don’t subscribe but it has shown to be a reasonable measure for what it would take to win a deal. I would trade what it takes to add a bat this winter. I don’t know which bats will be available. A few moved last winter in trade so I assume some will be moved again. I don’t know what it would take. Do need to have those answers to suggest that free agency isn’t the only route to a bat and that the trade route might be better?
  24. jorgenswest
    I appreciate your effort in putting this together. Particularly for the players that came up with the Twins or found their first success with the Twins I continue to care that they do well. I read you recap with interest.
  25. jorgenswest
    Is that what BTV said it would take?
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