jorgenswest

AI summary from google The metrics heavily based on pitch framing and stolen bases do not favor Suzuki well. Scherzer believes in him. Though. It is hard to measure leadership, game calling, the ability to communicate and a presence that provides confidence. These are probably skills that translate to the manager role. My guess is this information was scraped from reports in 2019 when the Nationals won the World Series. I am not sure what the 2025 Scherzer would say about Suzuki today. Does he still see that same leadership, communication and game calling skills?

Why are the future values of Ballesteros(45+) and Long(40) so underwhelming? Neither is ranked near the top 20 in MLB or Fangraphs. A top flight prospect and more is what my line would be for Ryan. Otherwise I keep him. note: the FV comes from Fangraphs but those have been the more realistic. MLB pipeline will have a 55 in the mid 100s and that just isn’t possible. Not near that many prospects will make that kind of impact. An FV 55 is an above average regular. Take a look at the MLB Pipeline 50th prospect from 2011-2020. One player in those 10 years had a significant major league career. Willson Contreras was an FV55 and more than fulfilled that future value. Another guy had a good rookie season but was let go by his team after three years. Nick Gordon is third best. He had one season close to average.

I just wonder if those 2 million dollar back ups need to have close to an average glove to get those dollars. Playing a passable major league catcher is high bar. I am not sure that Pereda meets it and it seems clear that Gasper does not. Is passable glove and no bat enough for a back up?

Maybe his slow start makes him attainable.

I have wondered about this. I wonder if catching is so difficult that the catchers that tend to be available are ones with a passable glove and little ability to hit. I wonder if the ones that have good gloves, call a good game and work with pitchers well all have jobs and aren’t easily acquired during the season.

Really appreciate the work. There are successful managers in the list.

Isn’t part of being an elite defensive catcher physical skill that he may have been lacking? He must have brought something to catcher. He was not great at throwing out runners and led the league in stolen bases given up three times. He wasn’t a great framer. He must have been pretty good at those other hard to measure aspects of playing catcher or he wouldn’t not have had the lengthy career there. I think it is those hard to measure aspects that will translate to managing better than throwing out runners and framing pitches well.

Any current managers that have never been on a major league coaching staff or minor league manager or even college manager? Even a single season would bring a lot of learning.

After his first look in the majors the Giants may be a little more willing to move him. Expect lots of home runs, strike outs and some rough play at 1B. He has 27 errors at first base in 1658 innings. For comparison Clemens has 2 errors in 1134 professional innings. He may be ready to be DH by midseason with some more time in AAA trying to cut down strike outs. They will have to bet on his glove moving towards average at 1B. He is very young. With enough work in the minors his defense may get there. The bat will get there.

Mendez is starting in RF in the first game of the AFL. Reds prospect Cam Collier is at 1B.

Random first base thoughts… I have been wondering about first base. The league wRC+ at 1B in 2025 was 109. In 2024 it was 107. Twenty years ago it was 115 to 120. Is that a significant drop? For a player it wouldn’t be. For MLB the sample is over 20000 first base plate appearances in a season. I think it is significant. Why? Is it enough that we don’t have a Pujols in the 1B pool? Maybe. Oh! The DH in the NL may be a factor. Taking out the NL and there is still a decline. From 2002 to 2025 the median is 111. All of the 2020s are 111 or below. Is defense becoming more valued at 1B and as a result the bats have declined? I don’t know. Miranda had a wRC+ of 114 and 116 in his two seasons where he had very 400 plate appearances. Seems like he should have been that player in the middle of 1B play. I don’t know what happened this year. In those two seasons his xwOBA was 12 and 22 points below his wOBA suggesting there may have been some luck involved. The Twins must not have trusted those wRC+ numbers that were better than his actual contact. No reason to sign France if Miranda was that player. Looking at xwOBA and wOBA differential this year both Clemens and Julien have xwOBAs much greater than their wOBA suggesting their quality of contact was better than the results. Clemens was 4th on the team at .344 behind Fitzgerald, Buxton and Martin. In the other direction Keaschall’s xwOBA of .329 was 34 points below his actual wOBA. The league xwOBA was .298. Keaschall was 10% above the league. Julien was 13% above. Clemens with the Twins was 15% above. I would be more confident if his great month was his last one. His xwOBA in September was .338. In any case if a batter can hit 10% better than league average they are giving typical first base play. The Twins didn’t get that last year. They were 10% below. Going from 10% below to 10% above at this one position can make a difference. It doesn’t seem unreasonable to make that happen. Do they bet on anyone in the organization?

I hope he shows enough in his reps at 1B that he gets a chance to play there in the Fall League. It is possible that he doesn’t have the hands and feet to play 1B. For some reason he didn’t get that opportunity with the Brewers or Phillies. It seems like both of those organizations would take a look at all of their corner outfielders and see if they can play 1B.

I am with you on the adds. I wouldn’t add anyone else. That is really already too many adds. It will be difficult to manage the 40 next year if the majority of these players are not ready. As we knew at the deadline they are also very outfield heavy. In this case none of those four is a major league centerfielder. I know injuries had Fedko in centerfielder for the Surge but I don’t think he can play a passable centerfielder in the majors. I think they really need to risk leaving one of the four outfielders off the list. Maybe two. Looking back at the kinds of players kept in rule 5 pitchers dominate. It is easier to roster a 12th man on your pitching staff (the 13th needs to be able to shuttle back and forth). It is harder to stash a position player in that 13th spot. They really need to be someone who can play multiple positions and either centerfield or shortstop. They need to be able to pinch run. Otherwise they need to be able to hit so well that they are playing regularly. I think Gonzalez and Fedko with success in AAA are locks. Mendez is about a year and a half younger than Rosario. He is next. They might lose Rosario but I think I would risk it. I also think he will get returned when he struggles to hit. They just have too many outfielders. That is 7 adds so they should make room for 8. I think they should seek a pitcher for the bullpen in rule 5. I would only reduce the roster by 8 right now. They would be Tonkin, Hatch, Misiewicz, Cabrera, Funderburk, Gasper, Keirsey and Vazquez. The 40 man roster does not need to be in balance over the winter. Moves will be made. Larnach will likely be tendered and traded. Perhaps another outfielder or two will be traded. Miranda is moved in a minor deal or designated when they add a major league ready bat. They will find a catcher and Pereda will be removed. They will add a shortstop or Culpepper will anrrive and Fitzgerald will be removed. They will need a back up centerfielder and Outman can hold that spot until Rodriguez or Jenkins arrive. Maybe Roden is a strong enough centerfielder to move Outman off. As I look at it I don’t think it is wise to tender Topa because they will keep him at his arb salary in spite of decline and injury history. He also will have 5 years service time so he can’t be optioned. Maybe I should have had him in the 8. He could be better version of Dobnak if they would use him that way and be willing to designate him. I am sure someone will argue why keep _________ over Rosario. That really isn’t what I am doing. I am not keeping Miranda or Outman over Rosario. I am keeping them in that spot until they find someone to fill that spot that has a major league ready bat. I think Rosario needs more time in the minors and not ready to contribute from the 40. It would be hard to roster both Rosario and Mendez on the 40 and manage the roster next year through injuries and bullpen over use. Leaving Rosario off though is a risk. Is he ready to hit major league pitching? Teams can’t keep him as a versatile 4th outfielder. He needs to be ready to hit.

Do you value that more than the number of young players on the roster who have graduated from prospect status?

Why is farm system rank a factor? Is there a reliable relationship between farm system rank and future success? I think it would be far better to look at 25 and under major league plate appearances and innings. Throw top flight prospects into the mix after that. A 23 year old in the majors has more value than a 23 year old deemed not ready by their team in the minors. The Nationals ranked first with 3632 plate appearances by young players. The Twins had 774 plate appearances ranking 27th. The Nationals ranked third with 469.1 innings. The Twins were 7th with 353 innings. Has the farm system lagged? Is it possible that it has been productive as shown by the number of young players playing in the majors for the Nationals? If I am a manager with multiple job offers and young talent is a factor in my decision I am not going to look at prospect rankings. I am going to look at the 25 and under talent. The Nationals outpace the Twins by that measure and should be ahead of them in this ranking.

I feel the pain. I don’t hear the commitment that they promised. There was a road in the previous decade to trade off assets and get top flight prospects. That road has been closed. They aren’t going to turn things around by trading assets. The FV50 or FV40s assets they acquire will take too long to develop. If after a few years of up and down they do produce it will be time to trade them. My expectations are that they will trade Ryan for a very disappointing return. Sure they will get a few top 100 guys but not a top flight prospect. I bristle every time I hear the phrase top 100 as if it is a likelihood of success. Take a look at the #50 prospect in the MLB pipeline from 2011 to 2020. There is one player with a significant career in Wilson Contreras. The next best in Jedd Gyorko who had 2.6 WAR over three years for the Padres before being moved. He was their Julien with a good rookie season followed by two replacement level seasons. Nick Gordon ranks third of the 10. If you trade for the number 50 prospect you are lucky to get a Nick Gordon. If they think they can trade their way out of this and turn it around they better be one of the best in baseball in identifying the elite amidst a bunch of top 100 players that will mostly be replacement level.

Falvey would be foolish to say they planned to trade Ryan and Lopez. That would depress the return. Other teams need to believe that the Twins expect to keep them. He needs teams to know that not only are they competing against each other but also a bar they have set before they will be traded A few years back Falvey said early after the 2023 season that they were going to reduce the budget. He needed to go the word salad direction then and he needs to now. The last thing he would want to be is transparent to the other teams. Sometimes word salad is better. I will be paying attention to their actions and not their words.

An addition to each of the categories Internal Option: Brian Dinkleman Poach a bench manager: Craig Albernaz Veteran Manager most like Baldelli: Gabe Kapler Veteran Manager least like Baldelli: Clint Hurdle Way Outside-The-Box: Hirokaza Ibata

I have these general wonders. Would they be better off with a manager with major league experience or someone new to managing? Would they be better off with someone in house or someone from the outside? Someone connected to Falvey or no connection?

August 15 and after among AL teams 8th of 15 in runs scored 7th of 15 home runs 1st of 15 stolen bases

The players probably all don’t get dropped at once. Enough will be dropped to protect those needed for rule 5. Maybe another gets dropped to allow a rule 5 pick up. There have been a few helpful pitchers in the previous two rule 5 drafts and the Twins draft early. After that players will get dropped to make room for DFAs from other acquisitions as spots are needed. The 40 that matters more is the one at the start of spring training. I would keep Fitzgerald. He may lose his opening day spot to Culpepper but he stays for now. We will have a better chance of seeing Culpepper when he is ready by keeping Fitzgerald rather than signing a player like Kiner-Falefa. I would do the same with Outman as the back up centerfielder until Rodriguez or Jenkins or both arrive. I would rather go into spring with Outman as the back up at CF and Fitzgerald as the back up SS than pay veterans for that role. Those veterans will stick around too long. I am also looking for two catchers better than Pereda for the start of spring training. If they have made the assessment his defense isn’t good enough they should probably include him in the early drops.

I commented early on that Pereda might be a major league catcher. Watching him more I don’t think that was correct. I think I was swayed by the small sample of at bats and SWR dominating the Yankees. Pereda had a very rough game in that Bradley start against the Yankees. He struggled in all areas of the catcher job. There were four stolen bases on him though he didn’t play the full game. He failed to catch Martin’s on line throw in the play at home. He over threw second base on one of his four attempts to throw out a runner. He is better than Gasper but both had negative framing numbers while Jeffers and Vazquez were in the positive. The Twins chose to send out Pereda and return to a healthy Vazquez and Jeffers this week. If that decision aided in those good starts from Abel, Matthews, Bradley, Ober and Woods Richardson it was the correct move. All five benefit from going into the off season on a high note.

Is it better to look at the Statcast data than a season of slash stats? In Clemens case isn’t the sample small for looking slash stats in making a decision about the roster? I do wonder if there is something there that is worth bringing back. He had a positive OAA at 1B and 2B and 0 in LF and RF. He was 4th on the Twins in xwOBA at .345. One of the four is Fitzgerald in a sample much smaller. Buxton and Martin were ahead of him. He was second behind Buxton in exit velocity Base running was a positive. He improved his bat speed by almost 2 mph in 2025 with the same swing length Starting 1B? Maybe not. The xwOBAs of the other starting 1Bs in the central were .347, .346, .330 and .320. His was .345 with the Twins. Is it possible he will improve given his limited major league at bats? Are his quality of contact numbers are better predictors of the future than his slash stats? Wouldn’t it be good to have a player on the bench that can play five positions reasonably well, run the bases well enough and a bat that performed near major league average and could be better?

The Twins came out of spring training losing with a 4-11 start. They followed that with coming out of the All Star break losing a series to the Rockies and going 4-8 in a time when they needed to fight to stay in the chase. They weren’t ready to start the season. They weren’t ready to start the second half. I know it is the players that play the game but I think a different manager would have had them ready. Go 14-13 in those stretches and they are in the wild card mix at 57-51. This is a different season if the team was ready to go out of spring training and after the break. For those that argue that the blame can be spread on the owners, front office staff and players. I don’t disagree. Change is needed and necessary though. New energy will emerge from the change. Changing the manager is an effective way to bring about that energy. I wish Rocco well and appreciate his time with the Twins. The 2019 season was amazing to watch. They won a playoff series. Good moments but he needs change also. Change is good and necessary for any professional. I expect he will be back managing and leading his team to the playoffs.

@Nick Nelson I have appreciated these weekly reviews. Thank you.