jorgenswest

36th pick trivia… The last an only player to be drafted as a HS shortstop in this spot and make it to the majors was Leo Foster by the Braves. It took him 5 years to arrive. Ryan Mountcastle was selected in this spot as a HS SS in 2015 arriving in 2020. He is now a 1B/LF/DH but they kept him at SS through 2017. Johnny Bench was the best HS player drafted 36th. It didn’t take him long to arrive. The other Hall of Famer from this spot is Randy Johnson. There is a big drop off to Erik Hanson and Stephen Piscotty after those two. A few players had significant impact though their major league careers were not stellar. Jarrod Saltalamacchia was the top prospect in the Mark Texiera trade. The Yankees used Tim Birtsas as part of the trade to get Rickey Henderson. Developing into a top 100 prospect and trade is probably the quickest route to impact. The reality is very few players at pick 36 make any impact. The Twins have a talent here and it is on them to develop that talent into an asset.

My apologies to the thread for going down this path. I should have not taken the bait. I gave an honest response and of course it is a stretch. A mid to small market team isn’t ever going to have the best roster. A whole bunch of things need to go their way to be successful in the playoffs. The reality will be a stretch. You give yourself a much better shot with Pressly in the pen as opposed to cheap alternatives in Parker and Dyson. Pressly was already performing at a high level at the time of the trade. The margins for any team but particularly one without the assets of a large market. Now in a desperate attempt to get this back on track which was the point of my original post. It is way too early to say Alcala’s time is up. The sample is too small (particularly FIP) to support conclusions about his future and there is enoug in his pitch mix to offer encouragement for the future.

This is silliness but if they had Pressly 2019… Would they have had home field advantage with Pressly over the Blake Parker failure as a closer? Would it have made a difference? The Twins tied things up in the top of the 5th of game 1 and Berrios is taken out. The best they have to bring in is Zach Littell who doesn’t get an out. If the bullpen is deeper can they bring in Duffey? Pressly? If Pressly is the closer do they use Rogers in that spot? If the Twins win in game 1 at home does that change the direction of the series? There was also collateral damage… The reality is that the Twins needed bullpen help when they traded Pressly For 2019. In order to fill the hole they signed Blake Parker and released him before the deadline and traded for Sam Dyson. Dyson was a disaster. He also cost them Davis, Berroa and Ting. Davis has an OPS of 1172 in AAA at 26 this year. Berroa is in San Jose with 57 K’s in 41 innings and a 3.24 ERA. Ting is struggling mightily with command but has 59 K’s in 40 innings. For the trade to be a success it should be judged do we need to factor in the performance of the trio we lost trying to fill the hole created with the Pressly trade?

The Twins had control of Pressly in 2018-2019. He could have made a difference to that 2019 team and the Twins will need Alcala or Celestino to have that one season where they are a difference maker on a contending team. Of course it isn’t time to give up on a pitcher with 59 career major league innings. I hope the Twins are not even looking at a FIP for a reliever to make this decision. FIP uses home run rate as part of its calculation. Pitcher home run rate needs a very large sample size before it stabilizes. It takes a reliever several years to get there. As a single season measure for a reliever it is pretty useless and the data cited above was for a partial season. xFIP uses strikeout and walk rates which stabilize in a much smaller sample and give a better picture over a full season for a reliever. At this point Alcala’s xFIP is 4.23 on a team with a xFIP of 4.37. His xFIP is better than that of Duffey(4.50), Colome(4.46) or Robles(4.58). We didn’t trade a Robles or Colome to get Alcala. We traded Pressly who had an xFIP of 2.21 in the control season of 2019. At the time of the trade in 2018 he had an xFIP of 2.85 for the Twins. Little fixing was needed. We need that kind of performance from Alcala in his prime seasons. Note: xFIP uses strikeout and walk rates which stabilize at 70 and 170 batters faced respectively. The four Twin relievers above have a range of 131(Alcala) to 163(Robles) batters faced.

Trading Rogers now would be selling high. His value won’t be greater in the off-season when their is a supply of free agents and he has one year of control left. It won’t be greater next July. Extend him instead? At 30 and with control through 31 he is not a good extension candidate. Someone will be paying for the decline that will come with his next contract. If the reason to sell now is to sell high then the Twins need to set a high bar. They need a team to pay up or they need to hold this valuable asset.

The asking price for Berrios should be sky high. It should take an overpay. The same is true for Rogers and Buxton.

Wouldn’t the supply be greater in the off-season with free agency? Teams will also have prospects who have yet to fail and starters yet to be injured. I suppose the demand would be greater with more buyers but the number of teams that would take on Donaldson’s contract will be limited in season or not. Miranda is close. I would trade Donaldson now, play Miranda next year and redirect any savings towards Berrios or Buxton or pitching.

I think the two options are all in for 2022 or set your sites of 2023 and beyond. All In- the Twins need pitching and lots of it. The all in plan sells off the best prospects for players who can make an impact next year while Rogers, Donaldson, Buxton and Berrios are in team control. Trade guys like Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Lewis and Miranda to bring in pitching. They can’t expected to be impact players next year and the core leaves after 2022. the Twins need to spend all of their resources to improve the 2022 roster. Fold and focus on the next window- the Twins needs at pitching are so great that it can’t be fixed to build a World Series contender next year. Trade off all expiring assets. Trade off Rogers, Duffey, Garver who will be 32 and likely in decline in 2022. Don’t pay for their decline. Trade Donaldson. Offer Buxton and Berrios deals they shouldn’t refuse. If they do trade them now. Plan for the growing pains of young players like Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Lewis, Miranda and some acquired by trade. Let them try to pitch out of jams even though they will fail too often. Play them through rough patches. Set the foundation for the next open window. I think this window has closed. The worst path to me is trying to compete by trading expiring assets this year for a marginal return in attempt to be competitive next year only to fail to make or advance in playoffs. The Twins are left in 2023 with no Buxton, Berrios or Rogers and little foundation to move forward.

I am not worried about his walk rate. It isn’t unusual for pitchers who dominate in the minors to have higher walk rates. Minor league batters can’t put the ball in play so there are many more deep counts which result in more walks. In fact I find really low walk rates to be more of a concern. Those weak balls in play in the minors turn into solid contact in the majors. In 120 batters faced Moran has decided the outcome (with a strike out or walk) on 66 of them (55%). That is dominance.

I never expected that Target Field would be the difference between a team that ranked in the bottom quartile according to revenue to a team that could keep all of the their free agents. It moved them into the third quartile and appears to have allowed one big contract in Mauer and then Donaldson. My only expectation is that their payroll rank is at least as high as their revenue rank. If they can trade Donaldson and recapture enough to give be able to keep Buxton and/or Berrios that would be my preference.

The challenge is to identify prospects in other organizations that are not seen as top prospects but develop beyond expectations, Cleveland’s trade for Kluber is an example. It is also an example of patience. They traded for him in 2010 at 24. He was up for a cup of coffee in 2011 and struggled mightily in twelve 2012 starts. By 2013 he was a league average pitcher and 2014 dominant. From the outside I don’t know if it was dumb luck or their scout’s ability to identify talent or their development but his development was not foreseen in the press at the time of the trade. They also traded for Carlos Carrasco at the deadline in 2009. He was the number 68 ranked prospect heading into the season and was struggling in the minors that season with a 5.73 ERA at the time of the trade. Between 2009-2013 he struggled in 40 starts (as well as 8 in relief) as he bounced back and forth to the minors and dealt with injuries. He was a valuable piece of the rotation by the end of 2014. The Bauer trade was in 2012. He was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. It was 2016 before he was a very good pitcher in the majors. It took Cliff Lee to get him who was seen as the best pitcher available at the deadline. Identifying and developing pitching is going to take patience. It is also a path for a small to mid market team towards a sustained competitive window. Can we wait 5 years for this season’s trades to pay off? Can we invest innings into young pitching that will struggle early on? I don’t think the Twins have an alternative towards that contending window. I think they can hope to be competitive but not really contend by patching by continually hoping to squeeze on more year out of a veteran pitcher. Does it mean that the close starts now? No. They have Duran, Canterino, Winder, Alcala, Ober and Balazovic. They will need time in the majors to struggle but I think all can be ready to start that struggle by next year. It is easy to dismiss Dobnak and Thorpe based on their performance but it is not unusual to have significant struggles early in a pitching career. It requires a staff that recognizes the talent beneath the struggle and then invest innings.

I keep him. He may be a fourth outfielder but fourth outfielders will get a lot of at bats. There is no reason to sell low.

Donaldson can be valuable to a contending team. He needs to be healthy and the team needs a contending core. He wasn’t healthy last year when they needed him and they are a long way from contending with their pitching this year and next. I would move him soon before he is injured again. Miranda’s best spot is 3B and Donaldson isn’t nearly as valuable at DH.

I am not as confident in Wes Johnson. He seemed to work miracles with Tyler Duffey. Look at the whiff percentage on his fastballs by season. Before Wes his fastball was mediocre to poor. 13.1, 13.6, 18.6, 17.3 2019-2020 it was outstanding with XBAs under .200 30.2, 29.5 In 2021 it is back to the start of his career. 15.2 What changed when Wes arrived? Was it tunneling? Fastball location? What is different this year that the whiff rate has returned to pre-Wes levels?

As for age Earl Battey is still my favorite player and I do not want the Twins to throw away the next three years. In order for this small to mid market team to achieve success an truly contend for a World Series they will need inexpensive team controlled pitching. Pitching is too expensive to build through free agency. I think I they throw away next year and delay that pursuit by signing more Hill’s and Happ’s and Colome’s and Robles’. I acknowledge that they would need those types of signings to be competitive but I want a team that contends. My plan would be to sell off everything. Many of those pieces are not going to get a top prospect and we will need to rely on the front office to identify those middling to unknown prospects as Falvey’s Cleveland team did. Now is the time to trade anyone not under control in 2023. Buxton and Berrios are the exceptions as I would pay up to extend them. I am not throwing away 2022 but using it to begin laying the foundation for the future. The Twins opened this last window without a foundation of starting pitching and instead patched with annual free agent patches. The window closed abruptly without that foundation. It was fun while it lasted but time to acknowledge that it has closed.

Fair enough. So basically you wouldn't pick Kirilloff or Larnach or Sabato but would go with a pitcher or someone who will stay up the middle. I wouldn't limit myself.

You might not get both but the Twins are trading two post seasons of Berrios and a comp pick. The comp pick has value.

How about Pearson and Hiraldo from the Jays? It is listed as a minor overpay on the Jays part.

I think they better go with whoever they think can make an impact. They draft 26, 36 and 61. Since 1965 the best pitcher ever drafted in the 26th spot is Dan Plesac. There are three others with a positive career WAR (Jeremy Bonderman, Kelly Wunsch and Bryan Morris). On the brighter side Randy Johnson was drafted in the 36th slot. He is one of just three players with more than 10 career WAR from the 36th spot. Jesse Crain is the 4th ranked player picked at 61. It is really hard to draft well outside of the first few picks. I don't think they would be wise to narrow their chances even more by restricting themselves to pitchers, shortstops and centerfielders.

He is valuable. He is inexpensive. I would keep him short of getting a good starting pitching prospect back.

on 2011… In Baker’s two starts prior to deadline (July 23 and 28) he pitched 12 innings, gave up 2 runs, struck out 9 and walked 1. His pitched 7 innings and threw 97 pitches in that July 28 start. The likelihood that a number 32 draft choice will be successful is very small. There are 6 players drafted in that slot since 1965 with more than 10 career WAR. Three more will likely get there. The Twins can’t expect a comp pick to be a Berrios. There is much greater likelihood that an established good prospect will have a career. The Twins probably got lucky with Luke Bard also. His career WAR of 0.2 ranks 12th in his draft slot since 1965. Many do do not close to the majors. Should the Twins count on getting a Berrios back as a comp pick? The two players where comp picks are possible are Buxton and Berrios. I would pay up to sign them to extensions. Can they even count on comp picks with the uncertainty of the agreement with the union? Looking forward I would sell off now. I would sell off expiring contracts. I would sell Donaldson if it meant either getting back prospects or retaining at least 16 million to spend on Buxton and Berrios. I would sell high on Rogers rather than pay for his decline. I would have sold off Garver also but not sure when he will return as a catcher and I think he has little value as a 1B/DH. I am trading for prospects and starting the rebuild. I don’t think it is possible to build a World Series contending pitching staff for 2022 and while being in the hunt for a wild card is possible it isn’t my long term goal. My goal is a World Series pitching staff and that can’t happen until they have a foundation of home grown pitching.

I think the season to learn from is 2011. Their pitching was old and second from the bottom (to the Orioles) in league ERA. They believed their competitive window was still open and the decisions they made lengthened the time they spent on the bottom. They tried to reload. For 2012 they added veteran Jason Marquis on a team friendly deal. They tried to squeeze another year out of Carl Pavano. They added 30+ arms Jared Burton and Jeff Gray to the bullpen. Scott Diamond was a rule 5 patch that seemed to help. On offense they added 30+ Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll(38!) killing any thought of preventing runs with the glove. They also brought in Jeff Burroughs. They couldn’t see that it was over. Yes… trading Perkins, Pavano, Cuddyer, Kubel, Baker and even Mauer would have angered the fan base in a new park. All of those players were near or older than 30. They certainly would be in decline before the pitching could be fixed. Hindsight on my part is easy here. We need a front office with foresight. They need to put aside their own need to win now to keep their job for the longer term outlook of the franchise. They need to see that this window has closed. They need too much pitching and it can’t be fixed with Marquis or Happ or Burton or Robles. They need to aggressively sell and they need to go through the growing pains of young pitching for a few years. They need to commit to starting their young pitching. Giving Liam Hendricks 28 starts spread over three years is not a commitment to his development. They need to sell.

They have an issue. I think they have chosen to go with veterans than trusting their own prospects. Individually the moves can all be explained. Cave over Wade. The assessment had to be that Cave was the better backup CF (my eyes don’t see it but analytics support it). Celestino over Baddoo. Keeping both on the 40 man is a challenge when the spots are so valuable on a team that believes the contending window is open. Center field won out here. Gil and Ynoa. I think it comes down to the same thought that they would need to be on the 40 long before they would trust them to help in the major leagues. I don’t think Gil had ever even made a Seth Stoh’s prospect handbook when he had been traded. I get that the window looks to be opening in 2017 and certainly appeared wide open in 2019-2020. The window has closed. They need to make decisions betting on the long term futures of guys like Baddoo and Gil rather the short term need of a bullpen arm or bench bat.

Happy Birthday Jose Miranda!

The only quote that I can find directly from Byron is the one above where he acknowledges being upset about not getting called up and also says he wants to end his career as a Twin. What else has he said that leads us to believe he has a strong desire to leave? Is it possible it is noise that his agent or even the Twins inject as part of the negotiation process? Is it in the interest of the Twins to feed someone like Reusse off hand remarks like he might not be happy? Would it help when he leaves to have a narrative of he didn’t want to be here? It may be a good baseball decision from a mid to small market team to let him move on rather than pay up. Game changing center fielders (and number 2 pitchers) are going to get big pay days. Buxton may well leave but the only narrative should be that the Twins chose not to pay up for an elite frequently injured centerfielder.